The flu doesn't have the capability of overwhelming a health service. If it did the death rate would be much higher and restrictive measures would have to be taken every year to avoid that and to protect the most vulnerable.

The death rate from coronavirus disease could well end up being lower than flu, ie a less potent disease than flu. But as it is a new virus, it has the capability of overwhelming a health service, in fact it is almost guaranteed to do so, and for as long as that continues it is anticipated that the death rate will be a lot higher than flu. That won't be the case for very long though, once a vaccine is available and immunity is built up it will no longer have the capability of overwhelming a health service and will be treated the same as flu is. The goal is to minimise the period that the health service is overwhelmed and in doing so minimise the period that the death rate jumps to a much higher level than flu. The measures being taken are not in reaction to the current death rate, they are being taken in anticipation of a much higher death rate which is virtually guaranteed for a period.

People seem to be unable to get their heads around this simple concept and think that comparing the current death rate to that of flu is relevant. It is not and won't be until about winter 2021 when neither disease will require restrictive measures and both will have a vaccine and immunity within the population.

Would be interesting to see an addition line on here that shows seasonal flu.

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Two hospitals have become so overrun with patients over the last few days they were forced to declare a state of emergency, it has been revealed. The A&E departments of Gloucestershire Royal and Cheltenham General hospitals have a massive backlog of patients due to long waiting times and lack of bed space. The circumstances in the hospitals at the weekend became so dire that patients allegedly took matters into their own hands after waiting for hours to be seen by medical professionals.

5-1-2015

https://metro.co.uk/2015/01/05/two-hospitals-declare-a-state-of-emergency-after-ae-departments-are-overrun-with-patients-5009898/

The total number of NHS hospital beds in England, including general and acute, mental illness, learning disability, maternity and day-only beds, has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2018/9, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly. 

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers

The strain is at times unbearable. Is the real problem, the lack of capacity, not any one crisis?

it is simply not comparable to flu is my point.

100% correct here though.

Is CV posing greater challenges because hospitals the world over operate too close to their limit?

We know the waiting times for hips, knees and A & E are far from ideal, to say the least.....

Medical science is, in some regards, it's own worst enemy.
The more advances that are made, the more treatments that become available, the greater the resources required to provide those treatments.

It creates an enormous economic, moral, and ethical dilemma.
You can create a valid medical case for spending a higher and higher proportion of GDP om the health service.

the governor of new york did say something about if you are on a ventilator over a certain amount of days (cant remember how many he said) you probally are not getting off it

I think it was from this Spectator article:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/herd-immunity-might-still-be-key-in-the-fight-against-coronavirus

The relevant paragraph is:

'Some have suggested that using that delay to increase life support capacity (i.e. sourcing mechanical ventilators) in hospital intensive care units could help. Sadly, preliminary (and limited) data suggests that up to 90 per cent of Covid-19 patients who go on life support will die. So ‘more ventilators’ does not seem like the game-changer we seek. As a life support specialist, myself, I am greatly chagrined to admit this.'


It's a good article, and the chap seems to know his onions. But that bit is annoyingly vague. The phrase 'up to' could mean anything, and he doesn't say what data he was going on.

Thanks

The only report I've seen which goes into ICU cases was this one from the first covid patients in this country to go into ICU
.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-first-analysis-reveals-trends-in-uks-critical-cases-11962457

Small numbers.  17 recovered, 16 died, 163 still in ICU.  About 75% were on a ventilator

Thanks Angoose. (I read it thoroughly earlier this week, but only skimmed it for the relevant bit today.)

You would think they've got enough data from China (and other more trustworthy parts of Asia!) that moderately reliable statistics could be created. How many people were put on ventilators? And of those, how many were still alive after 10 days, 20, days, 30 days, 45 days etc. And how many of those went on to recover and be taken off the ventilator again.

Obviously little can be truly definitive at this stage, but I don't think we can really afford to wait months for 'definitive'. If there's any suggestion that the figures are likely to be pushing on 85-90% then that's probably something that should be considered. I wonder if there's any more info in the Lancet article itself.

Ultimately, the cost per aircraft weighed in at 2.1 billion dollars per aircraft as the B-2 was perfected in 1997. Here are reason Why Does the B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber Cost $2 Billion. So the Defense Authorization Act and Congress authorized 20 B-2’s for $44.65 Billion, or 2.2 Billion each.

There's no real case for spending lots to have a great excess of equipment that you mostly won't need. The key is whether you spot these things coming along, and then put into action a plan for expansion. In fairness to our government and the NHS, they do seem to have done a good job there.

Simon Stevens, the Whitty-stand-in for yesterday's press conference, was saying that in one month they had freed up the equivalent of 50 hospitals.  (Boris, in his election campaign, had claimed he would build just 40 hospitals over ten years.)  That scale of expansion is pretty impressive.

I'm reminded of The Great Dictator..