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These 259 comments are related to the topic:
"Too late to stop no-deal"

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Replies: 259
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:29
It would be absolute madness to do otherwise. You'd be campaigning with effectively no government during a no deal scenario where you will blatantly need a government taking actions. Even the Tories aren't that stupid.
By:
tobermory
When: 04 Aug 19 01:30
Yes they will try to get a vote through that prevents us leaving first. I don't know how feasible that is. My comments on this thread are about the hypothetical scenario where that method has failed and a NC vote followed by a Remain Coalition is the last option they have.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:34
I highly doubt that would even be necessary, albeit they probably would, but you really think whoever becomes temporary PM can politically justify just letting the country leave with no deal when the government has just lost a vote of no confidence, it's a completely untenable position to take on pretty much every level.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:38
But honestly it's unlikely imo we reach this point going that way of a vote of no confidence. A vote of no confidence is basically the nuclear option, the majority of likely Tory rebels will be reluctant to vote against their own party, I imagine we would only get there if Boris tried to shut down or bypass parliament in some way.

It's far more likely parliament will try to legislate what Boris has to do, the numbers are far more likely to be there for this from the off, especially as even in Tories I imagine there is a bunch of MPs who probably want Brexit but not no deal (not clear if those types will join the rebels though).

Also unless Boris' government is in its own world they will see these things coming and not just fall into the blatant trap anyway and seek to do something else themselves, it's much better for him if he's taking control of the situation some way than letting it reach a point of parliament dictating to him.
By:
tobermory
When: 04 Aug 19 01:38
The worst thing that has happened to Corbyn is the delay of Brexit. If it had happened on schedule he would hardly have been blamed for it and then he could have moved the agenda on as he'd been doing in his first 2 years.

If the Tories lose a NC vote, Corbyn just has to say 'right now I'm going to form a government to stop No Deal'. If Hammond and whoever refuse to back him then it will be on them if no government is formed. Then we leave with No Deal and the whole agenda moves on to the GE and of our future relations with the EU rather than how we get out of it. It is is a much simpler scenario for JC.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:40
Brexit in general has hurt Corbyn. The funny thing about the Brexit aftermath is Tories screwing up Brexit is likely to be good for Corbyn, Lib Dems etc., but they can't be seen to have facilitated the screw up or they will be finished themselves. It's been obvious to me for ages that really Corbyn just wishes Brexit would disappear so they could move on to something else where he thinks Labour have a good advantage over the Conservatives.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:44
And on the other side I almost think the Conservatives need it to be taken out of their hands to not be wiped out as a result of Brexit. Delivering it and not delivering it are going to be a disaster for them. They basically need parliament to take control somehow so they can say it wasn't us.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:50
Made worse really by Boris has basically boxed himself into oblivion already. He's "definitely leaving by the 31st October" so if he doesn't deliver on that he will pay for it, he's definitely not bringing back same deal with the backstop so if he does that he will pay for it, and playing up getting a new deal, but this truly is the definition of bluster, there is no time to do this. It would take months at best to do this with the EU even if there was a will, and there's no signs of such negotiations even starting yet, and it would take like 6 weeks to pass through parliament and all the required legislation attached, taking you way past October 31st.

That leaves then trying to take us out with no deal on October 31st, something clearly going to be opposed heavily by all sorts, there's very likely to be a majority in parliament against, you're also likely to face all sorts of legal challenges, and the risks here are quite obvious, that you wouldn't even be around to govern by October 31st anyway. On top of all that you also have to assume that Boris actually wants to take us out with no deal going against all the advice he will getting. I'd love to know how many MPs truly think you'd make a success of no deal, because I reckon it's probably under 50 in reality.
By:
casemoney
When: 04 Aug 19 01:53
This can't be right , I thought the rise of the LIB DEMS was in full motion ? Plain
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 01:54
Even the GE option, surely Boris would have to call one soon, you'd have to think any GE held after Oct 31st will be used heavily against him. The problem though is what are the Conservatives going to campaign on anyway? It's a pretty tough sell if the GE is in October to say we're gonna negotiate a great new deal in 2 weeks and leave on October 31st. So by logic (not that I think these things are necessarily done by logic) you basically have to run on a no deal platform?
By:
casemoney
When: 04 Aug 19 02:00
So regardless of what you favour In or Out , with the Deadline of the 31st of October , the lot of em fook off for a 6 week holiday Laugh
By:
casemoney
When: 04 Aug 19 02:05
I should like to ask everyone which MP they voted for , and with probably the most important Decision the UK has ever made LOOMING , would you have expected them to go on holiday for 6 weeks ?
By:
dave1357
When: 04 Aug 19 08:37
a) Boris loses confidence vote
b) Coalition govt formed that either asks EU for another delay till after an election or revokes Art.50
c) Election
By:
HGS
When: 04 Aug 19 11:44
Correct dambuster
By:
brassneck
When: 04 Aug 19 12:14
i am not sure but i think they have to give a six week prior notice to the general public that they intend to hold a general election or a second referendum ,now in the withdrawal agreement the EU allow extra time if they decide to have a G.E. OR REFERENDUM,but it is very unlikely in my opinion that a G.E would be held on Christmas week.So in my opinion its odds on that it will be all waffle until 2020 at least,and then they will consider the winter weather and delay until late Spring early Summer.And a little legal argument can drag brexit through the law courts of Europe for 6 or 7 years.Cry
By:
brassneck
When: 04 Aug 19 12:37
so behind closed this is what is being said in my opinion"of course we cant leave it would be catastrophic consequences,we made a balls up,so we need to pretend that we are doing everything in our power to leave,we must satisfy the electorate that we have left,but we can hoodwink them into thinking that we did leave but the law courts said we must have a second referendum,and we must get the vote to stay in Europe this time"LaughLaugh"
By:
ericster
When: 04 Aug 19 13:48
I think brassneck is probably right.
They were so sure that the leave vote wouldn't prevail.
Which only goes to show how out of touch the ruling classes are.
By:
northanlite
When: 04 Aug 19 15:28
Crispin Odey, Brexit backer and Johnson donor, bets £300m in short positions against UK firms. Same man made £200m betting against sterling in 2016. And Johnson has the f’kin nerve to make speeches about Remainers “betting against Britain”.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 16:25

Aug 4, 2019 -- 4:55AM, dambuster wrote:


If the remainers won and we didn't leave, you would see an uprising of violence like never before. NAPJust because the leavers don't scream as loud as the remainers, doesn't mean they will accept the destruction of british democracy quietly


Literally zero evidence of this. These threats of violence were made on March 29th.

By:
tobermory
When: 04 Aug 19 16:31
So far Brexit has been delayed. If it is revoked the trouble will start.

You tell people it's a democracy ; you want something to happen you just vote for it. When you can't tell people that anymore then anything goes.
By:
dave1357
When: 04 Aug 19 16:33
didn't see that as dambuster is on my blocked list.  But not surprising that he and his ilk are threatening violence.
By:
Just Checking
When: 04 Aug 19 16:42
He's not threatening violence. You are dishonestly misrepresenting what he said and getting hysterical about it, how very "remoaner".
By:
macarony
When: 04 Aug 19 16:46
tobermory
03 Aug 19 23:44
Joined: 01 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 47,149 | Blogger: tobermory's blog

    Aug 3, 2019 -- 11:26PM, Baphornet wrote:


    no chance of bringing the Government down; & you can quote me


Plain Labour table a motion of no confidence, Hammond, Grieve etc all support it, Boris must resign.

Not according to the rules/law he can ignore the result of no confidence vote ( after all some are trying to ignore one of  the  biggest votes in UK history)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49225906
By:
dave1357
When: 04 Aug 19 17:16
"you would see an uprising of violence like never before."

"He's not threatening violence."

rofl
By:
potlis
When: 04 Aug 19 20:03
Probably a third of Labour MP's don't want to see Corbyn as PM, what the likes of Flint, Hoey, Fields are going to back him in a no confidence vote, no chance, they will all go on the missing list if/when the votes called, Corbyn knows he can't rely on his own MPs which is why he is running scared of calling it.
By:
macarony
When: 04 Aug 19 20:11
Is Corbyn the only one that can call a vote of no confidence?
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 20:14

Aug 4, 2019 -- 10:31AM, tobermory wrote:


So far Brexit has been delayed. If it is revoked the trouble will start.You tell people it's a democracy ; you want something to happen you just vote for it. When you can't tell people that anymore then anything goes.


They also say there will be riots if you have no deal so how do you win.

Nothing will happen, you'd get a handful of Tommy Robinson like louts kicking off at something, and everybody would be better off if those types were inside anyway.

By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 20:15

Aug 4, 2019 -- 2:11PM, macarony wrote:


Is Corbyn the only one that can call a vote of no confidence?


Yes.

By:
Baphornet
When: 04 Aug 19 20:31
panicking yet, n88uk?
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 20:34
Of what?
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 20:34
No deal? No.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 20:35
I want Boris to actually go for no deal, as that's the road to Brexit not happening.
By:
tobermory
When: 04 Aug 19 21:23
Do you really think if Brexit is revoked, that everything will just proceed like nothing happened ?

British democracy would be fkd. People will have voted for something that was not enacted.

The Tory party would be obliterated but that would be a footnote. In any country where votes are ignored there is political violence.
By:
saddo
When: 04 Aug 19 21:25
I agree with just checking, so would blind Pugh.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 21:30
There would be a political price to pay, mostly for the Tories losing votes en masse, do I think there will be riots, not really. Most people aren't that bothered about it, the riots are more likely the other way if people lost their jobs as a result.
By:
n88uk
When: 04 Aug 19 21:31
Just what exactly are these people gonna do? I mean there's been no real evidence of any strong leave parade full stop, look how poorly attended the leave means leave rallies were. There's probably more people causing trouble at Tommy Robinson related events than would over Brexit.
By:
Baphornet
When: 04 Aug 19 21:34
they won't have to do anything; we're leaving
By:
Baphornet
When: 04 Aug 19 21:35
exito
lefto
stage righto
By:
tobermory
When: 04 Aug 19 21:45
I guess you really do think everything will carry on as before then.
By:
macarony
When: 04 Aug 19 21:50
Isn't that the whole point of Brexit that things will not carry on as before
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