The psychology of gambling.

If you do not have a solid understanding of mathematics and probability you cannot win long term ,unless you win the lottery for instance ,by pure chance.

May 14, 2016 -- 12:01AM, epicurean wrote:

If you do not have a solid understanding of mathematics and probability you cannot win long term ,unless you win the lottery for instance ,by pure chance.

I think that's probably 67.5% correct

my problem is that if I set out to win 20 quid a day I lose focus at some time.for example =if I won 20 quid a day ,this day next year I would show 7300 profit for the year,but after 4 or 5 winning days the greed kicks in,and I try to make money faster if you know what I mean.and as I say if I lose I also try to get it back quicker .
so if I win or lose I am burning the candle at both ends.
I am sort of like the cigarette smoker that stops,four or five days later the old habits come back.
I can work tireless for 5 days and then get sucked in on real Madrid(1/3)or something like that ,and if it loses I am on a chase or if it wins I get more greedy and blast something similar.
so I am sort of in a loop.
And the discipline goes out the window .I guess I need long term discipline.

Stop gambling.
Come back in 6 months
Think about all the money you have saved in the last 6 months by not gambling.
I mean really think about it.
Deposit it.
Look at your bank balance.
You are up, you have more than you've ever had before.
You have the psychological advantage.
Now bet with level stakes on things you know about.
Doesn't matter if you go on a bit of bad run.
You are still betting with money from 5/6 months ago.
Break will also do you the world of good.
You will slowly shed the brassneck, you will breath easier.
You will think clearer, come back fresher, make better decisions.
Give up the drug and you will find the cure.

1=NEVER CHASE
2=DONT BE GREEDY WHEN YOU ARE ON A GOOD RUN.

You're looking at it from totally the wrong perspective mate
You're seeing it as one huge long winding road THAT YOU HAVE NO CONTROL OVER , so it doesn't really matter whether you win or lose as like you say the end result is inevitable .

You need to study more (maths is not always the key) but You must seek VALUE .. and try treat every bet independently (why are you placing that bet ?)

I asume you play to fairly levelish stakes , could you go without a bet for 2 weeks then whack a few hundred on ?

You Should be more Greedy on a good run , but Never chase !

Trading can also be valuable (but you must be smart enough to see a trade outright)

Try & work on what works for you & cut out what doesn't (sounds simples) but then you can work on your marginal edge

Has your life improved Mc Moonbeam

You was in a bad state a year or two ago

I hope you are happier now?


Since bookies exist I assume most of us lose, but I know one person who wins at Greyhounds, not me though

Invest rather than gamble.

I OWNED 24 BOOKIES OFFICES BEFORE I RETIRED,MY SONS NOW RUN THEM,so I guess I have a fair bit of knowledge about gambling,i also was a pricer for the crooks in the eighties on football ,and I priced football for the independent bookmakers association of Ireland for 10 years up to
the early ninties.
I won over 3 grand today .but I only gamble to pass the time,i try to beat betfair at maths,but find it so difficult .
and I won over a million quid on golf betting at the age of 27.
SO do not underestimate old brass.

I also won 250,000 on Annie winning the Champion Hurdle.
but I can not beat betfair on maths.

Now I'm confused.

You gave us the impression you were a mug, recreational gambler.

Turns out that it's you that should be penning and selling a few gambling books, given us advice.

With that much experience in the game, I don't understand this thread at all.

Fishing I assume.

I wouldn't of thought you really need any advice, judging by what you have just put brassneck.

Well done brass - probably your best bit of luck ever in life today as i don't
normally congratulate people!

i put 50p in the coffee machine at work today but it thought id put a 2£ coin
in so i got back £1.80

the gambler starring james caan. must watch this film.

Not really Gery , i've been very ill for over a year now (mainly why i didn't post) but still betting/trading/pokering/investing the whole time .

I guess i've just learned to exist like a lone wolf hunting but thanks for asking

only gamble what you can afford to lose - pay all your bills first. food bills too.

May 14, 2016 -- 1:03AM, Mc Moonbeam wrote:

Not really Gery , i've been very ill for over a year now (mainly why i didn't post) but still betting/trading/pokering/investing the whole time .I guess i've just learned to exist like a lone wolf hunting but thanks for asking

So you must have been online a lot by what you've said there.

So why has your illness just impeded you from posting on here?

Paper trade with any so called edge and if after x number of bets you aren't in profit steer clear of the deposit button. Why someone that apparently won several million is starting this thread apparently owning bookies all over the uk I have no idea other than the usual BS people write online

DO YOUR SONS NEED HELP TOO

How did you get started then Brass ?

You won't beat Betfair at maths as Betfair is a math/bots game (no brain required)

no,i have discovered that someone gets the results faster than I can,and I fall into traps very often.my goal is to get a mathematical system to beat betfair,so I do not have to rely on luck.but its very time consuming and sometimes I think its near impossible.so that's why I posed the question on psychology of gambling in the hope that something is straight on front of me and I can not see it.
so I hoped someone could give me the key to unlock the door.
its a mathematical system I want,not trying to win backing maiden hurdle favs in Ireland,or laying odds on away teams,or backing Kirby over 6 furlongs .they all show profit but I am relying on other peoples decisions.
I want the maths formula to beat betfair not an edge.

It begs the question if betfair is as close to mathematical certainty as it gets how can it be beaten?

So you must have been online a lot by what you've said there.


Yes i have bills to pay .. food to cook & eat


So why has your illness just impeded you from posting on here?


Because it becomes head consuming & being ill like to switch off & go to bed without trolls like you to deal with

Brassneck do you honestly think if someone had the "key to the door" beating betfair continually they would be posting it on here lol

May 14, 2016 -- 1:10AM, Mc Moonbeam wrote:

So you must have been online a lot by what you've said there.Yes i have bills to pay .. food to cook & eatSo why has your illness just impeded you from posting on here? Because it becomes head consuming & being ill like to switch off & go to bed without trolls like you to deal with

I'm not a troll, just someone seeking answers to obvious contradictions.

You're searching for a holy grail that doesn't exist, the bots that control the exchange are based on fairly sophisticated data from football matches going back years which are as close to the perfect bettor as it gets. It's like trying to take down a castles defences clutching a pea shooter and asking someone for a processed pea to blow into the air when the wind gets up- the implied simplicity is utterly ridiculous

its easy to win on betfair if you martingale overs on Argentinian football and you can mass a few hundred grand before long but the risk is always there that some day there will be goals in 6 or 7 consective games,but that's only an edge,i want the E=MCX2 formula.

A millionaire gambler who wants advice gambling:laugh:]

The only thing you want is some extra man power to help pull the numerous catches up onto the trawler

night night brassneck.

Martingale is never an edge , its just dodging bullets and if you were as experienced as you claim you would know this.

Agreed. I don't think it exists and if it did you wouldn't be getting it. The interesting thing is you post about the psychology and yet you want formulas. The psychology may be that you're lazy and you want an easy edge. Some people have had an easy edge over the years. The fast pics crew for example. Outside of that the edge comes with hard work. You have to make yourself an expert. Better than the rest if you can in whatever field you choose to make yourself an expert in. Even so until you learn discipline you will still lose.

brassneck is one to be ignored from now on.

Sad that I've felt the need to point that out.

I am very very close to the holy grail,i am within touching distance but I need the key to open a small lock into the final room,and I know its lying around in someone's head.
And someone will let it slip into my grasp very very soon.

Google slicers bet and enjoy .. it has the same credibility this thread has

Is this some kind of metaphor?

Are you trying to get yourself sectioned and are looking for advice?

Albert Einstein walked to work for 35 years thinking about E=MCX2 and then one day on his way to work he says to himself "I fecking have it"and he did have it.

Yep. And look at that cnunt jumping in and out of the bath until he shouted uranus or something like that.

If you read the forum for the past few years the general trend is that no one has any kind of edge. There are ridiculous posters like Kelly betting on everything there is claiming credit when one comes in and the rest all fail along with people betting on 1.01 odds in a womens match he believes the goalkeeper may be on her period making her liable to concede goals. The "dead certs" fail with regular expected ratios year in year out and when a bet doesn't come in the poster has either greened out, the match is fixed or "they will never bet on that league again".

He didn't .. Einstein was given his info .. he really wasn't that smart

All I ask is there someone out there in betfair land that can beat betfair without relying on lady luck.?
it seems a reasonable question .I am not breaking any rules ,all I am doing is trying to find the perfect system.
how can I be wrong if I ask a question.
NOBODY can be wrong if they are asking a question ,and that's all I am doing.

im off to bobo land now,talk tomorrow lads.night all.

You appear to have accepted your life Mc Moonbeam

Well that is something

Einstein what would it be like to have a brain like that, that is the supreme achievement of being a Human Being.

Amazingly he could never remember where he lived...his mind was on other things.

Bet at massive odds.  Its a maths thing.  When you multiply a small number by a big number you get a big number.

i treat gambling like a computer game. there's always one more level. That's why it's hard to walk away when you win.

I think it's best to pick two or three five to one shots and try to do a double/treble. Walk out and check it after the days racing is over. Hanging about bookies or betfair just drains the will.

Sorry to hear but glad your OK McMoon and thanks for the kind words Akabula.

I'm a profitable low stakes poker player, I make decent pocket money from the game (mid 4 figures last year). I blog at my own site www.freerollhq.co.uk where I'm trying to turn zero into 4 figures in 2016 (and failing miserably). I still think I'll do it and TBF I created the site as an affiliate so I can make more money. The game is harder than it's ever been but I still think there's profit to be made. 2/3rds of all poker players lose long term (Sharkscope stats) so I think the site is relevant to the majority of players or anyone thinking of getting into the game.

I really think you need an edge and bankroll management to succeed. Without both you'll lose eventually. My edge in poker is making less mistakes than my opponents but without bankroll I'll get nowhere. In any one game I'm risking 5% or less of my net bankroll. That way I can cope with the swings that are inevitable. Without an edge then no amount of bankroll will help so both go hand in hand.

I think the same applies to punting. I'm loving Robd270's http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/30677959/playing-the-percentages

He has an edge, just read his well thought out reasoning to understand. He's also working to a strict bankroll. He's maybe making pennies but with the majority of punters losing in the game, any profit is better than nothing.

You're kidding yourself about this edge philosophy with just punting Ovalman. Robs a nice guy but has no edge, firstly he's made less than 50 bets which is no evidence of anything, secondly his pot has grown by 8% which after commission would be even less and thirdly on one day alone he lost over 5% meaning another day like that will take him after commission into the red. That's no edge and if you believe it is I worry for you also if you believe a growth of 8% when one day just lost 5% over less than 50 bets is anything bar a reasonable run of chance.

The only way to determine any edge is hundreds of bets on markets using the same technique over and over which can ultimately withstand a hit of over 22.5 % commission rising to 60%.. good luck with that

How kind of you to remember me Mr 3011. Thanks for your good wishes, which are reciprocated. I hope you are prospering.

Thanks Ovalman

What most people don't seem to grasp is that a true edge is extremely difficult to find & maintain , and when you do find it'll be relatively small so you have to bet big & place a huge number of bets to really Maximize your edge
This is also what poker taught me , was happy to just grind away for years endlessly making 5% , but my actual stakes ended up being like $1 Million per year just to Net £30k +

Very difficult to find in the Betting World as it's tough to find that kind of liquidity to play around with

gambling is definately something you can't teach  ,it's a skill with which you are probably born with . It is not about luck but a way of looking at something different to how other folk see it .

 

some folk are very good at music,some art, some languages ,some sport etc etc

Autism is possibly the word i'm looking at

definitely *

Albert Einstein walked to work for 35 years thinking about E=MCX2 and then one day on his way to work he says to himself "I fecking have it"and he did have it.


Eeternaloptimist
Eeternaloptimist 14 May 16 01:26
Yep. And look at that cnunt jumping in and out of the bath until he shouted uranus or something like that.
_______________

 

May 14, 2016 -- 1:37PM, Slicer wrote:

How kind of you to remember me Mr 3011. Thanks for your good wishes, which are reciprocated. I hope you are prospering.

Afternoon Slicer I remember the infamous thread well after spending what seemed an eternity around 3 years ago reading it, I trust all goes well? I'm afraid I'm treading water like practically everyone else on here these days searching for elusive "edge/ holy grail" which I don't believe really exists anyway if I'm being brutally honest. After a decent first year hit the first band of P charge and since then all but given up... we all want to escape the proverbial ratrace by making money here but not to be sadly.

you have to look at the odds on here and  say to yourself ,hmmm - OK what can i do with those odds .  A little like a move on a chess board given the wya the board is laid out .

There is NO strict mathmatical formula you can just apply and win  ,anyone thinking that is living in la la land

If the odds correspond with the actual chance of it occurring or as a good as, I fail to see what anyone can do with them

what if the odds are wrong or you have information that would change the odds?

play blackjack count cards,it really aint cheatin

You need to study more (maths is not always the key) but You must seek VALUE .. and try treat every bet independently (why are you placing that bet ?)


...excellent advice from Mc.

I often fail at treating each bet independently.

Backing is buying. Doesn't matter if you're buying a bet or a classic car. What are the chances you will make a profit from your investment? If unsure, don't back that horse/team or buy that car.

Trading is different and imo easier. Not looking for outcomes, just movements. Which price is likely to move which way and why?

May 14, 2016 -- 5:57PM, Ovalman. wrote:

what if the odds are wrong or you have information that would change the odds?

Short of someone being in the dressing room of the club involved, how would someone be privy to information that would contradict superior statistical analysis from software which has data processing skills above any human with access to information on backdated matches proven to be highly accurate to tiny fractions over a long period? They cant.

May 14, 2016 -- 6:17PM, Injera wrote:

You need to study more (maths is not always the key) but You must seek VALUE .. and try treat every bet independently (why are you placing that bet ?)...excellent advice from Mc.I often fail at treating each bet independently.Backing is buying. Doesn't matter if you're buying a bet or a classic car. What are the chances you will make a profit from your investment? If unsure, don't back that horse/team or buy that car.Trading is different and imo easier. Not looking for outcomes, just movements. Which price is likely to move which way and why?

I agree with each individual bet being unique looking for value but laying is also "buying" as technically you are backing the draw/other team so little difference other than backing 2 outcomes contrary to one

You got to feel the same apathy on your good days as well as your bad days....


This in turn will neutralise any greed or the need for desperate chasing.

I'm not on about the EPL.

I follow Irish League Football, I know a bit about it although I'm no expert but I probably know a lot more than you on the subject. Bookies set their odds on Thursday, I know I've seen things that would change those odds. There's no insider information, these markets are not where bookies make their money.

Have a separate Betting Bank
Bet stakes to be a level % of this bank.( at least 2% or 1/50th)
This should/will safely encompass losing runs.
Focus and concentrate bets onto certain horses within certain races.
Create qualifying indicators, that shoukd be met befor a bet us placed.
Keep derailed records of all bets.
Be disciplined , bet only if rules point to a bet. If not. Then no bet.
Bet win only, not ew.
Aim to not have a bet on any horse less than 3/1.

first rule of betting: don't bet on horses

The time the horses are on is a problem, even if someone wasn't working just sitting in all afternoon especially during the summer would drive me mad.

I think the best way to look at gambling is to think of it as a hobby, or buying clothes, or whatever. 

My family and friends used to look upon my gambling on horses with distaste and I think  thought of me as stupid for doing it.  They used to say why waste your money?  But I always replied, well you spend money on restaurants, clothes, gym, make up, holidays etc etc, are you wasting your money?

I thought of betting on horses like as an intellectual exercise, and derived lots of pleasure from it, so it wasn't a waste of money.  But I had no responsibilities so I could do what I liked with my money.

I now play poker, but again I do not resent losing money, I enjoy it and hope to get better.

You obviously haven't lost enough to feel the sickening pain annie?

No, Ron, I haven't.

that's how it stays fun - good for you

Sickening pain is good for you?

I have seen that time and again in boyfriends over the years, the ones that gambled and the ones that didn't but took me to dog tracks etc and then gambled stupidly.  I stopped asking them to take me as I felt responsible for their losses, but I shouldn't have really as it was their fault, why bet on something you know nothing about? Probably trying to impress me

Really?

It was a long time ago, crags

May 14, 2016 -- 11:22PM, annie. wrote:

It was a long time ago, crags

Years or decades?

if i could stick to dogs id be fine - can't stay of casino tho when i / you
have the obvious losing time - so taking a break & started playing poker again
to burn time - doing quite well tonight

Just playing tournaments to keep it fun

May 14, 2016 -- 11:22PM, annie. wrote:

It was a long time ago, crags

It's nothing to do with how long ago it was, but the fact that lots of men - as you said it happened time and time again- who didn't gamble would suddenly not just start gambling, but throw their money around like they'd been told they only had a week left to live. Doesn't sound very likely.

... and you've suggested that they all lost? In my experience of people who go racing/dogs first time often do better than the regulars by picking out a favourite number or some such thing.

One guy at Taunton races some years ago had a fiver on a 20/1 shot because he though that the form figures of 'FF' meant first first...

Stay Off on line Casino Ron!

Annie ,isn't there a law against women gambling ? 

Here's what you need to be a happy gambler on the horses, once you have acquired the correct knowledge of course.

You simply start with small stakes and build up you kitty through successful betting.
Any increase in staking comes from your profits.

If you are not successful your stakes never increase from the minimum.

If you are good enough you'll get there.
If you're not you'll never lose a fortune either.

Annie ,isn't there a law against women gambling



Glad there isn't, I have and still do enjoy it.

I think all this gambling is the devils work business does all the sensible gamblers a disservice.

Brassie back lay home team , lay away team and back draw thats the key ( well the start ) do that for 10 bets and then come back and ill give you the golden key

I've done that TheChaser and i'm out of pocket

Now What

Can I have the golden key Please

Betting is all about temperament,we can all back winners at some stage but managing your money and your approach is key IMHO. I have some good winning spells then ruin it all when I have started to believe I can do no wrong !

I know everyone says Never chase ,but how do you get your losses back if you don't chase.because the time it takes to learn how to gamble wisely you will have lost a bundle.
Which brings me to my next point,i have a new state of the art chasing system,but as nobody on here ever chases they don't need a chasing system.but this one I developed includes a staking plan chasing system that will get you out of trouble many many times.
meaning you can have the odd blast at a selection and if luck goes against you the NEW IMPROVED BRASSNECK CHASING SYSTEM WITH STAKING PLAN can return you losses.
Its a pity I have nobody on the site that wants it.

good prices ,nay - unbelievable prices  on Sevilla scorelines tonight of 3 and 4 goals vs the English premier league  has beens  , had some of that 

beats the hell out of working for a living 

1 - 4    *    128.25    51.31    Back         -51.31 


this score was crazy odds at 128/1  and this almost came in too - a whisker away !!


go against the common heard  ALWAYS -  sheep will lead you to the dosshouse !

you are correct coachbuster,it form worked out in sport there would be no bookmakers,and you never see them on push bikes.
but many drive big cars with personalized number plates.

not that big

found a good article




https://www.thefix.com/content/you-bet-your-life

brassneck ,they certainly know  how to cover themselves 

Building a bank on here is easy enough.
Knowing when to withdraw those profits is an education in itself.

Betfair having a 'reverse withdrawal' option is a killer for many a poor boy.

It's a trap for the weak minded.

Annie - which Trap did they put you in?

All gamblers really want to lose so much it hurts

I have just laid 'Just Be lucky' in the 9pm race tonight :


on a mere whim


20-May-16
20:56:29    21:00 Haydock
Just Be Lucky - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:68750579529 | Matched: 20-May-16 20:56:36    Lay    4.90    155.86    607.85
155.86
Matched
20-May-16
20:56:28    21:00 Haydock
Just Be Lucky - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:68750578576 | Matched: 20-May-16 20:56:29    Lay    4.90    200.00    780.00
200.00
Matched
20-May-16
20:56:27    21:00 Haydock
Just Be Lucky - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:68750576342 | Matched: 20-May-16 20:56:27    Lay    4.80    31.39    119.28
31.39

Fortunately i also backed it for a bit more

Just Be Lucky5.1 £381.64  £1,564.72

Lay (Bet Against)    Backer's
odds    Backer's
stake   
Payout
Liability
Just Be Lucky4.8 £31.39  £119.28
Just Be Lucky4.9 £355.86  £1,387.85
Just Be Lucky5.2 £10.00  £42.00


So- psychologically:   did i get a buzz out of this - nah- but its fun to show off- and part of gambling is doing the 'i'm so good aint I bragging rights bit

childish - but deep routed in us

missing black labrador.

has one ear bitten off
lost his tail
only has 3 legs

answers to the name of Lucky

IF you think your horse can win.... back it for a place. (my sage advice)

I had a habit of picking second and stomping out in a huff.

Turned it around this week  I just place now.

try 20 win 80 place

May 18, 2016 -- 10:50PM, Coachbuster wrote:

1 - 4    *    128.25    51.31    Back         -51.31  this score was crazy odds at 128/1   and this almost came in too - a whisker away !!go against the common heard  ALWAYS -  sheep will lead you to the dosshouse !

Clearly not the case though is it as the odds on betfair are extremely accurate meaning the sheep eventually flock to the right price.

missing black labrador.

has one ear bitten off
lost his tail
only has 3 legs

answers to the name of Lucky


I had this blaring out today https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1PTlnhQhoQ and he waltzed across with his tail a Wagging