BREXIT TAKES THE LEAD

The books are going 2/5 to stay in (no change from about a month ago).

I've had a cheeky fiver on the tie.

25/1 with betfred that the remain vote is 40% or less

fill ur boots

What happens if the vote ends in a tie....do we get referee Robert Schaut to administer the coin toss?

A Romanian member of the European Parliament has lashed out at Europe’s approach to the cultural war with migrants, and questioned the ability of Europe as a cultural entity to continue in the face of the onslaught.

Romanian MEP Laurentiu Rebega is a member of the same Europe of Nations and Freedom group as Marine Le Pen and the Front National, having joined last year after he crossed the floor from the Conservative party.

Speaking out in the immediate aftermath of the Brussels bombing attack this week,  he told Breitbart London that the flow of refugees to Europe wouldn’t end until there was peace in the Middle East — a potentially unlikely prospect.

Speaking of the migrants travelling to Europe in ever greater numbers, Mr. Rebega said: “They can’t be integrated, they will never be integrated.

“The people who attack Europe are the people whose families came here 40 years ago. They cannot adapt to our culture. This shows we have a really big problem if we accept them in our cultural space.

“We have this mass of people from mass migration who have penetrated Europe without any control, any debate even over how they can be part of our culture. They come here, they refuse to take part in any kind of process to adapt to our norms”.

Stopping this flow of migrants was paramount to the survival of European people, he said: “In my opinion we have to stop this right away, otherwise Europe won’t exist in ten years from now. Right now we are at war.

“These people aren’t insane individuals who are out of control, and who decide to [attack us].

“This is very well organised. The [Brussels attacks] shows they are starting a war against the Europeans. We have a duty to protect our own citizens, we don’t have one to care for others.

“You might say we have to show humanity and compassion to [migrants] but now we see they are attacking our own citizens. They kill innocent people”.

When pressed on what the solution to these problems was, Mr. Rebega expressed there was much to be done, but emphasised the importance of protecting the frontier. He said: “The biggest problem we have now is the uncontrolled border.

“There is no doubt about this. We have no border control, we have no say on who comes from other places, enters with a different culture”.

Mr. Rebega explained he was particularly dissatisfied with the way the European Union failed to support nations at the frontiers, who were dealing with the day-to-day reality of mass migration. He lamented: “We didn’t help them, we just talk and talk, and force them to take mass migration”.

A new poll by ICM now has 'remain' 2% ahead, taken after brussels. I'm not convinced the polls are getting it right after they got it completely wrong for the GE. It was theorised that online polls overrepresented younger voters and telephone polls couldn't reach conservative voters, both of these would skew the polls in favour of 'remain' if they haven't found a way around it. Going door to door randomly across the country with a massive sample size is probably the only reliable method but it's expensive. So be wary of the polls they could be out of sync to the actual support levels.

'.........So be wary of the polls they could be out of sync to the actual support levels........'


Really ?

what percentage DK

“The people who attack Europe are the people whose families came here 40 years ago. They cannot adapt to our culture. This shows we have a really big problem if we accept them in our cultural space.

Oh for a UK politician to say this.

Mind you, he/she would probably have to spend several nights in jail...

im YES,but the way EU,has handled refugee,an terrorist crisis has me wavering

I voted In 40 years ago but deeply regret that now, the EU has cheapened our civil service and Westminster by forcing it to adopt deceit at every turn to enforce measures that are unpopular rather than acknowledge EU directives.

TheBetterBettor
Joined: 10 Jan 12
Replies: 7305
    25 Mar 16 10:34 

What happens if the vote ends in a tie....do we get referee Robert Schaut to administer the coin toss?

We go to the result of the 'Fil Rouge'

If it's still a tie we see which side played their Joker and got the highest points

If none of the above, we go to Gennaro and Guido

I've never ever voted in my life - going to make the effort
& vote OUT

What harm can it do to this already broken country.

as brussels erupted the other morning i had a scaremongering leaflet
come through the door - didn't say who it was from as far as i could
see, just highlighting how much worse off i/we would be

Or Cameron and Boris can put on penguin suits and see who can catch the most cheeses
from a rotating windmill on a greasy surface while the French and Germans throw wet sponges at them!

The books are going 2/5 to stay in (no change from about a month ago).

I can't help feeling those odds are very wrong as the vast majority of voters will only look at it from an immigration POV. The bloke in the street cant understand all the economic issues but he does understand that you can't have uncontrolled immigration at the rate of an extra million every 3 years without huge problems buildinf up.

think the books realise that when the financial position is explained properly no one bar a far right nut will vote to come out.

why play financial bingo when the downside is so far down?

What happens if the vote ends in a tie....do we get referee Robert Schaut to administer the coin toss?



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6eQ78HCGEA

Trying to put some deep thought into this, first of all undecided.....then in....but would now vote OUT.

Agree with this comment "bloke in the street cant understand all the economic issues but he does understand that you can't have uncontrolled immigration...."  And recent surveys show it is currently looking a very close vote, surprised at those odds of 2/5 to stay in (?) Below the surface, I think several trends are combining to push the country closer to a Brexit.

It's a toss up now, with 'The Establishment' using every last trick in the book, plus some half-@rsed promises nearer the date to try to keep us in against every single driver - economic, migration, democratic, patriotic - screaming 'leave'

BF 1.49 to stay in

Don't the fools read Chit Chat!

Dave's done his we are a christian country easter speech today,
didn't he do that at xmas to

Those of you who think it is very close must be filling your boots at current prices

1.16             £100
1.19             £1,033
1.20     £27         £1,093
1.21             £495
1.22     £9         £647
1.23     £596         £1,643
1.24             £666
1.25     £296         £3,582
1.26     £6         £4,374
1.27             £1,736
1.28     £7         £2,821
1.29     £1,000         £6,933
1.30     £391         £7,391
1.31     £142         £1,134
1.32     £621         £2,519
1.33     £665         £22,886
1.34     £8,060         £14,169
1.35     £837         £30,262
1.36     £3,587         £30,681
1.37     £2,236         £32,529
1.38     £3,210         £59,777
1.39     £2,486         £64,740
1.40     £1,782         £100,123
1.41     £1,946         £81,585
1.42     £1,329         £154,764
1.43     £2,532         £176,671
1.44     £2,705         £200,718
1.45     £2,161         £236,706
1.46     £2,339         £153,483
1.47     £7,520         £110,459
1.48     £9,445         £111,828
1.49     £8,686         £125,472

those of you that think its a formality better put your seat belts on imo

think the books realise that when the financial position is explained properly no one bar a far right nut will vote to come out.

Go right ahead jockey. I'm sure there are many people who will enjoy your explanation.

GI JOCKEY

I respect your opinion for wanting to stay in the EU but whatever the finer points of the arguement the simple basic fact is that if we stay in we've got to provide homes for an extra 1,000,000 people over the next 3 years together with schooling, health care and all the other amenities and facilities that people need. That is as many people as live in Manchester.
We can't build that many houses in that time even if there was land available, there doesn't seem to be any new schools being built and hospitals are closing. So how is it going to be done?
I've asked this question to everyone who thinks we should stay in but have never received any sensible practical answer to the problem.

@bix - I'm for out for different reasons than yourself, but I'll take your questions:

-there is plenty of building land in the UK. Greater London for example has a land area the same as HK and Singapore combined, but about 5 million fewer people - it just needs someone to rip up the NPPF and we can get building upwards
-outside London, we can build outwards: there's plenty of farmland with no public access available ( this should really be classed as brownfield, as farming IS an industry - or rip up the NPPF as before and crack on ).
-the UK builds about 160k units a year I think, it's not enough, but if occupancy is 4 per unit which is low by historical standards then it'll deal with the increased population, not happily, but they will squeeze in
-We don't need any more schools - pupil numbers are broadly similar even with the immigrants and the two child tax credit rule will rein it in a little from July 2016 - the massive area of population growth is among the over 60s
-Health care: this is a problem with or without immigrants ( who work a lot in healthcare of course ) but socialised medicine has been disastrous, cancer survival rates are below the Baltics, and outcomes the 2nd worst in the commonwealth fund study in 2012 iirc. But having said all that, almost every large hospital has scaffolding up on some part of the site. We can go to systems like most other countries where A&E, family planning, maternity, and communicable diseases are dealt with under a socialised system with insurance for everything else, then the private sector can get cracking. Oh, and execute the socialist scum chiefs at the BMA who in 2008 voted to prevent an expansion in medical school admissions, because they didn't want junior doctors having to compete.

Bongo
Thankyou for your answer. Of course the UK could accommodate an extra 1000,000 citizens with a planned, controlled and structured policy but that is exactly what is missing. The government's attitude toward immigration is one of laissez-faire both towards the newcomers and the existing residents. Sort it out amongst yourselves lads.
You know how long it takes to get changes to the NPPF or even planning permission for building new homes particularly if there are objections and appeals and here we are talking about providing homes for an extra 1000,000 in just 3 years.
Actually immigration is not my main reason for wanting to leave the EU, but I am mystified as to how the government thinks we can keep taking more and more people in without addressing the issues themselves.
Our already totally inadequate transport and road system which now grinds to a halt all too easily also needs drastic attention if it is to handle huge amounts of extra journeys. That of course is another issue, but one which will not sort itself out.

Why do we want to increase our population and build more. Of course there is land that can be built on if we keep expanding our population but is that really in our interests to do so.

Aspiring to be like HK or Singapore!

Years ago they used to say you could get the entire population of the world on the Isle of White...so lets have no more of this overcrowding nonsense.

Just because its possible to do something doesn't make it desirable.

millions of voters living in europe , 90% likely to vote stay

how do you telepoll these ?

Perhaps this is Dave's subtle way of controlling immigration by saying you can come in but there won't be anywhere for you to live. Homeless in London up 30% in London in last 12 months. Mainly it seems Romanians with no job and nowhere to live.

Another Million the nhs will collapse

Long inquiry into why polls got in wrong in the GE has found that they systematically over-represent labour votes, and unless they switch to a completely different and more expensive method they will keep getting it wrong. I dont know what that means for this ref except the polls are probably within +/- 10%.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/31/election-inquiry-concludes-theres-not-a-lot-you-can-do-to-make-p/

Now we have the premiership league,the bastion of fair play,telling us how our football scene will suffer if we leave Europe. The BBC endorsed this by showing that well known european Aguerro scoring again !

bix 27 Mar 16 19:30 Joined: 08 Dec 02 | Topic/replies: 3,700 | Blogger: bix's blog
GI JOCKEY

I respect your opinion for wanting to stay in the EU but whatever the finer points of the arguement the simple basic fact is that if we stay in we've got to provide homes for an extra 1,000,000 people over the next 3 years together with schooling, health care and all the other amenities and facilities that people need. That is as many people as live in Manchester.
We can't build that many houses in that time even if there was land available, there doesn't seem to be any new schools being built and hospitals are closing. So how is it going to be done?
I've asked this question to everyone who thinks we should stay in but have never received any sensible practical answer to the problem.

simple
stop non eu immigration.

be interesting if all those pensioners had to come back.

the aged add more strain to the nhs than a working eu immigrant no doubt.

I think a lot of those pensioners have been coming back when the inevitable has come to the horizon,just we haven't read too much about them.Just like a revolving door over the years.

GI Jockey

Good point about the non EU immigrants. As immigration is at an unsustainable level perhaps that should be the deal. Stay in but stop non EU immigration.
Can't see that happening somehow.

dont think pensioners have..lots have returned because of a lack of work.

right now its a lot cheaper to live abroad then here.

so what happens when we vote out?

the government opt to stay in the eea?

I'm going to have a massive bet on remain. I wouldn't even mind losing my money if we vote out. But if we stay in, at least I'll trouser a pocketful.

House prices will determine which way the vote goes. If Osborne, Carney and Cameron can make sure they are rising to 23rd June (and I believe they can ensure this) then Remain is 85% likely the victor. If house prices are falling, 85% likely Brexit.

Genuinely interested in how they can ensure house prices are rising. It's not like they can drop interest rates any more for mortgages or anything.

Cant see the link between house prices and the eu, we have always had an influx of people whether in the eu or not.

Not sure when house prices last fell, always will be on the up whilst the population outweighs the amount of houses and regulation, the minute house prices fall then building will slow.

odd way of thinking.

if we go out the odds are house prices will fall because of a fall in demand...less people coming in.
also wages go up because of a smaller pool of employees to choose from.....means interest rates are likely to increase as inflation goes up.

if we dont take our seat at the eea then prices and inflation will go up further because of imports and export attracting tarrifs...that will get passed onto us...

less money floating about.

prices bound to fall.

maybe the tories can get more refugees in to up the demand for housing

the eu provides us with 1.7m workers where as non eu provides us with over 2m...so we are quite good at finding workers from non eu countries.

lets get out fo the eu so we can get more

treble, the last time house prices looked like softening, first-time buyer concessions were announced the same week. At the first sign of house prices softening in the next three months, expect a stimulus. No reason to think house prices will stop rising though - changes to buy-to-let taxation have many rushing to increase their property portfolios now.

I don't mean that house prices are linked to being in or out of the EU, I mean that voters will vote for change if house prices are falling.

if they helped fuel house prices by making it easier for 1st time buyers they should get done for treason.

how the hell are we supposed to get hosing benefits down if we have to subsidise even full time workers so they can afford to pay their rent ???

what a mess we are in

Can anyone tell me the positives of staying in ?

but if they voted out on that basis they want their braincell checked out quickly.

can understand a few reasons why some might want out.

the far right.
people who want house prices to fall.
but to want out for those reasons wow.

Not sure why the laughing emotions are about, Who said leaving the eu would lower migration ?

Having control over migration and letting in people who enhance your nation seems good too me.

Again, tell me the last time house prices fell in England ?

The uk is built on mortgages, the whole financial system is built on house buyers, that is why the interest rate is so low, they dont care about savers they want people to buy houses, that is why they like uncontrolled migration.

GI Jockey - There may be a slight correction to house prices AFTER the Referendum, but they will undoubtedly be rising into the next General Election. It's Rule 1 for government.

the positives are avoiding the negatives.

way i see it is the way down is a lot further than the way up.

we didnt suffer as much after subprime because eu immigrants lowered wages so we were able to be competetive.
but house prices rose and it has left us in a problematic position regards to investment.

can see many companies shifting their operations to cheaper options in the eu also knowing if we come out fo the eea we will have some tarrifs imposed.
if that happens then its cheaper to deal in the eu than out of it....

short term wages rises.
long term unemployment and lower wages.

plus point lower house prices.

either way at some point we will suffer the knock on from subprime like the rest of the eu did.

suppose some think its time to face the music

I cant take anyone seriously if they call someone far right for having a different opinion, sort of crap the bbc spam the internet with.

Im pretty sure companies have been leaving the uk for cheap labour in the eu for ages, to think the uk cant be better is defeatist to say the least.

About the only positive for staying in is the excellent salaries and pension schemes the EU has for those loyal to it. As we have seen they show their loyalty by selling the UK down the river and filling their own pockets by shovelling our money into other countries' pockets.

I am a passionate supporter of Remain.
Being a teenager in 1975 when we joined, I spent much of that summer travelling in Europe. It was as sweet as you can imagine. Felt my identity had broadened. I want our children and grandchildren to have the same vistas of opportunity. Sure, there are always things to improve.
The other argument is economic. The reason we joined was because we were becoming inexorably poorer compared to them. The U.K. had to beg for twelve years to get in. If we leave, we can't go back, and the same disadvantages of being out of a free market will condemn coming generations of Brits to be poor relations in Europe again.

^^^ what a load of garbage, of course you will still be able to travel, and trade will carry on but be even better for us...

" free market "  so if we get out there will be  no trade with ALL the wonderful countries in the EU
Our intelligence service compared to other EU countries is second to none, will that change if we leave, so what's all this safer In bawlocks

What really annoys me is Cameron was banging on last year if I don't get the deal I am after then we should leave the EU, what happens he gets probably a tenth of what he would have liked to get, & now bangs on what a disaster it would be to leave its beyond pathetic in my opinion, I never remember him being this pro Europe ever & something doesn't seem quite right about it all somehow.

Lots of young North Americans will travel to Europe this summer, and broaden their minds, have fun, even drink a few beers which they're not legally allowed to at home. A couple of years ago they'd have slept at central European train stations the occasional night to save money between hostels. Not so easy this year as the hostels are fuller and the train stations have new arrivals from North Africa sleeping there.

This is only possible because North America is in the EU.

Must be the big pay-off and free holiday home

on the island of you can only come here if you are a good little boy

But we will lose jobs if we leave?

not doing to bad losing jobs staying in at the moment

united biscuits......young people have been travelling to and from Europe since the 1960's

Long before the EU was even thaught of.

chelsea girl - The freedom of being there as n EU citizen is rather more than a tourist can claim. You can live there. You can get get a job there. You have members' rights and privileges. You have an EU health insurance card. If you are a romantic, you can get lost there searching for a lost domain and not have to worry about being an alien. You can wander across a field which constitutes a border and nobody stops you.

i went to Nice in mid 80s to stay with a mate at uni

brits were not allowed to work there without jumping through hoops

on holidays in  late 80s in spain brits were being deported for working
as reps for pubs

dark days for our young adventurers

The reason we joined was because we were becoming inexorably poorer compared to them

utter rubbish, when we joined our GDP was on par with the rest of the EU that is why we got in. Now the EU lets anyone in regardless of their GDP, had the same conditions applied to Poland and all the other ex commie states that was supposed to be applied originally, then they would never had got membership. Now all those are being let in with crap GDP's is the reason there is a mass exodus of citizens from those countries to the wealthy ones.

I'm not on about working, only travel like the interailling scheme introduced in 1972

before the EU was formed.

you dont stop at borders on trains now

was always great fun arriving at italian border, wait several hours , etc etc

That's not quite fair Burtons:
A big reason for Poles migrating to the West is the subsidies which prevent the normal operation of a competitive free market economy based on investment and comparative advantage.

Agriculture is the headline industry that demonstrates it. It used to employ about a quarter of the workforce on POL. Thanks to subsidies the land owners there have mechanised and shed jobs at a sensational rate adding value to what the land owner already has. Other previously labour intensive industries have done the same. Unemployment which was close to nil under communism has risen. The displaced workers have to move to work. To the countries which ironically provide the highest net subsidies.

some of the arguments for out are flawed.

lets take immigration.
1.7 m eu immigrants are here compared to over 2 non eu immigrants.

1.it would be easier to control the non eu immigration .
2.more terrorist would come through the non eu route directly from those countries avoiding other eu intelligence services.


the payment to the eu.

we pay a net 8.5bil
yet we cant calculate how much being in the eu has helped us....presume a lot of brexit voters think its hindered us....but based on what?
benefits figures?
compare 8.5bil to over 80 bil for the nhs budget....so we are talking a small amount to help trade.
even if we went solo wed only save 8.5 bil
how much would it hurt us trade wise?
god knows but the first thing is if there were tarrifs of any kind that means an increase in prices.

the posibilites from even a small raise in tarrifs is hard to measure likewise zero tarrifs now.
one certainty is zero tarrifs is better than a tarrif.

the laws issues is a valid on but the alternatives leaves us with no say if we want access to free trade.
lower down the options list and our service industry gets hit.

think either way there will be some kind of hit on our economy.

4 point LEAD for exit

re Daily Male

Common
Lets be having you
Cakes all ROUND