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10 months into the bear market and no signs of the bottom yet.
Shares are getting cheaper every week.
Shares are getting cheaper every week.
They can always dig up some reason for market volatility.
Shares are driven by prospects for company profits and there are a lot of profit warnings about.
When prospects improve, the major share traders will start accumulating shares ready for the rise.
Then the tide will turn and the rise will be no doubt be spectacular like it usually is.
Shares are driven by prospects for company profits and there are a lot of profit warnings about.
When prospects improve, the major share traders will start accumulating shares ready for the rise.
Then the tide will turn and the rise will be no doubt be spectacular like it usually is.
IF THE start of the year has been desperate for the world’s stockmarkets, it has been downright disastrous for shares in banks. Financial stocks are down by 19% in America. The declines have been even steeper elsewhere. Japanese banks’ shares have plunged by 36% since January 1st; Italian banks’ by 31% and Greek banks’ by a horrifying 60% (see chart). The fall in the overall European banking index of 24% has brought it close to the lows it plumbed in the summer of 2012, when the euro zone seemed on the verge of disintegration
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http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21692863-european-banks-are-eye-new-financial-storm-tempest-fear
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http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21692863-european-banks-are-eye-new-financial-storm-tempest-fear
the good dr
shares are driven by companies profits
at the height of the ftse tech boom companies wernt making any profits and valued at billions ,
,
banks before the latest downturn were rebounding despite in some cases making large loss,s
short sellers betting on companies prices sqewing the markets has nothing to do with how their performing in some cases,if your targeted by these people doesnt matter how your performing your a gonner
shares are driven by companies profits
at the height of the ftse tech boom companies wernt making any profits and valued at billions ,
,banks before the latest downturn were rebounding despite in some cases making large loss,s
short sellers betting on companies prices sqewing the markets has nothing to do with how their performing in some cases,if your targeted by these people doesnt matter how your performing your a gonner
at the height of the ftse tech boom companies wernt making any profits and valued at billions
Yes but you need to think a little deeper.
During the dotcom boom shares were driven higher by the prospects of sky high profits.
When these profits didn't materialise we all know what happened to the companies.
Yes but you need to think a little deeper.
During the dotcom boom shares were driven higher by the prospects of sky high profits.
When these profits didn't materialise we all know what happened to the companies.
Like I said earlier; when the prospects for higher profits improve the major traders will start accumulating shares.
It's a pity I had to spell it out and the point was missed the first time I wrote it.
It's a pity I had to spell it out and the point was missed the first time I wrote it.
FTSE100 marked up at the open this time.
Even amongst all the doom and gloom were are plenty of buyers about yesterday.
These aren't your average punters buying who are manipulated by the news and the press. They buy all the way down playing the long game.
They still get their returns from the dividends and history has proved this to be a much sounder tactic that buying when the market is soaring.
Even amongst all the doom and gloom were are plenty of buyers about yesterday.
These aren't your average punters buying who are manipulated by the news and the press. They buy all the way down playing the long game.
They still get their returns from the dividends and history has proved this to be a much sounder tactic that buying when the market is soaring.
The folks living off dividends now have to pay 7.5% more tax if it is more than £5k per year and not in an ISA or pension.
My three aim shares are valueless now and think will go tits up.
re dividends
the wife was getting some info of bt sharescheme about wrapping her bt shares inside an isa wrapper and the advisor told her if she put them in an isa you dont get any dividends,surely that cant be right is it ?
the wife was getting some info of bt sharescheme about wrapping her bt shares inside an isa wrapper and the advisor told her if she put them in an isa you dont get any dividends,surely that cant be right is it ?
He probably means you don't get tax relief on your dividends.
Or perhaps he meant that they'd be reinvested for her.
You still get the dividends one way or another.
Or perhaps he meant that they'd be reinvested for her.
You still get the dividends one way or another.
Oil at 13-year low
- Global stocks down 20% since May
- US & European banks hit
- Gold at year-high
- Global stocks down 20% since May
- US & European banks hit
- Gold at year-high
you maybe right dr,the wife wanted the dividends to still be payed twice yearly into her everyday acc as of now,at least there tax free up to 5 grands worth from april
Yes, share dividends are taxed in ISAs and pensions at 20%, I believe. Retail bond dividends are not taxed in ISAs and pensions.
That was how it was of course. I was forgetting the changes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11737430/New-dividend-tax-how-it-works-and-how-to-avoid-it.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11737430/New-dividend-tax-how-it-works-and-how-to-avoid-it.html
FTSE100 up 170 today.
They must have all read my post at 09:13 this morning.
They must have all read my post at 09:13 this morning.
is the rally over? we seem to be heading back down. on the other hand gold has resumed its upward move.
I'd presume that it was only viewed as a technical rally, as some thought the market was temporarily oversold.
If you can think of some positive factors that might weigh against this tidal wave of risks, then I'll be amazed!
If you can think of some positive factors that might weigh against this tidal wave of risks, then I'll be amazed!
| Negative factors | Positive factors |
| Oil price collapse symbolic of weak worldwide demand | |
| Chinese $30 trillion debt | |
| Brexit | |
| Worldwide debt | |
| ISIS | |
| European migrant crisis | |
| Hong Kong real estate bubble collapsing | |
| Banks bad debts still a problem after 2008 crisis | |
| UK Consumer credit binge |
but stow as long as house prices are rising everything's fine isnt it?
i just wish one of our leaders would tell the truth and then we could face the day of reckoning and start again. i've mentioned iceland before on here, they jailed high up bankers who engaged in illegal activity, didnt bail out the banks, took the short term pain and then their recovery started.
instead the titanic drifts on. how long will the public be stupid enough to put up with this? we are nearly a decade into this madness and there is no sign of the people in charge seeing sense. how long until we get negative interest rates, helicopter drops and possible cash bans? even if there isnt another massive crash we will end up with lost decades just like the japanese.
i hope you've bought some gold, its real money. even if it goes down in a deflationary spiral its still a hard asset and will have some value unlike many paper assets. i should keep the larder well stocked too.
we're doomed, in or out of europe.
i dont want to be all doom and gloom but i dont see any positives. prepare for greatly reduced living standards.
i just wish one of our leaders would tell the truth and then we could face the day of reckoning and start again. i've mentioned iceland before on here, they jailed high up bankers who engaged in illegal activity, didnt bail out the banks, took the short term pain and then their recovery started.
instead the titanic drifts on. how long will the public be stupid enough to put up with this? we are nearly a decade into this madness and there is no sign of the people in charge seeing sense. how long until we get negative interest rates, helicopter drops and possible cash bans? even if there isnt another massive crash we will end up with lost decades just like the japanese.
i hope you've bought some gold, its real money. even if it goes down in a deflationary spiral its still a hard asset and will have some value unlike many paper assets. i should keep the larder well stocked too.
we're doomed, in or out of europe.
i dont want to be all doom and gloom but i dont see any positives. prepare for greatly reduced living standards.
it might save a few conservative seats at westminster and that's far more important to gideon.
The Department for Transport estimated the cost of hs2 to be £43 billion. A study by the Institute of Economic Affairs suggested a total cost of £80 billion. That's another 37 billion we'll have to find for that one! We are absolutely skint as it is!
On the 24 August 2015 the FTSE100 hit a two and a half year low and ended the day at 5898.
Today the 24 February 2016 six months later , it ended the day on 5867.
Despite the doom and gloom and the prospects of a financial Armageddon, the FTSE 100 has been going nowhere for six months.
Today the 24 February 2016 six months later , it ended the day on 5867.
Despite the doom and gloom and the prospects of a financial Armageddon, the FTSE 100 has been going nowhere for six months.
To be fair Dr C that statement is a bit disingenuous. Although your numbers are correct, if you look at 12th August 2015 the FTSE closed at 6752 (before dropping like a stone over the next two weeks).
As you say, it closed at 5867 yesterday.
So the FTSE 100 has declined 12% over the last 6 months and two weeks.
As you say, it closed at 5867 yesterday.
So the FTSE 100 has declined 12% over the last 6 months and two weeks.
the wild swings in stock markets worldwide arent a good sign
We won't need hs2 if we out of the eu
To be fair Dr C that statement is a bit disingenuous
gin, my statement is not disingenuous in the slightest.
It is the way that you interpreted the figures which is misleading.
We have to use major turning points as our benchmarks for rises or drops to make any sense.
Even putting a 25 day moving average through the data doesn't show a 12% decline since August 2015.
More like 4%.
A five day moving average which is more representative has the bottom later but is almost level at today's point showing hardly any drop at all.
gin, my statement is not disingenuous in the slightest.
It is the way that you interpreted the figures which is misleading.
We have to use major turning points as our benchmarks for rises or drops to make any sense.
Even putting a 25 day moving average through the data doesn't show a 12% decline since August 2015.
More like 4%.
A five day moving average which is more representative has the bottom later but is almost level at today's point showing hardly any drop at all.
DR C
I’m not looking for an argument – just pointing out that you picked a point in time that had just been preceded by large falls.
If you had made a statement about how the markets had fared in the last 6 months on this thread just two weeks ago, it would have been completely different.
In fact from 11 Aug 2015 to 11 Feb 2016 the FTSE dropped from 6664 to 5537 – a drop of 17%.
As I say, I’m not looking for an argument but feel that posting what you did without putting in the context of the big falls just two weeks prior (although you did mention that it was a low) is a bit misleading.
Maybe you don’t – other people can make their own mind up.
I’m not looking for an argument – just pointing out that you picked a point in time that had just been preceded by large falls.
If you had made a statement about how the markets had fared in the last 6 months on this thread just two weeks ago, it would have been completely different.
In fact from 11 Aug 2015 to 11 Feb 2016 the FTSE dropped from 6664 to 5537 – a drop of 17%.
As I say, I’m not looking for an argument but feel that posting what you did without putting in the context of the big falls just two weeks prior (although you did mention that it was a low) is a bit misleading.
Maybe you don’t – other people can make their own mind up.
Do any of you invest in aim listed companies.
I now refuse to put money into them as just a pay machine for the directors.
I now refuse to put money into them as just a pay machine for the directors.
No MT, wouldn't touch them with a bargepole.
They're too easily manipulated by connections out to make a quick buck.
They're too easily manipulated by connections out to make a quick buck.
We have to use major turning points as our benchmarks for calculations on rises or drops to make any sense.
The six month period I used was a coincidence.
It just happened to be a dead six months on the day that I posted.
The six month period I used was a coincidence.
It just happened to be a dead six months on the day that I posted.
I've learnt that the hard way. Herencia have a months trading money left.
They are trying to sell off some assets so they can continue to exist.
Years have been spent testing the ground and they have some fantastic mineralisation.
They will never dig it out. Just bank the wages.
Opportunity was huge. Delivery of business plans horrific.
Someone will end up with a decent bit of land with good ore
Herencia share holders will end up with empty pockets.
They are trying to sell off some assets so they can continue to exist.
Years have been spent testing the ground and they have some fantastic mineralisation.
They will never dig it out. Just bank the wages.
Opportunity was huge. Delivery of business plans horrific.
Someone will end up with a decent bit of land with good ore
Herencia share holders will end up with empty pockets.
As the people on here seem rather seasoned with stocks any suggestions for good dividend stocks?
I started buying into companies looking to profit from increased share price and did ok but think long term
dividend stocks a good option
I started buying into companies looking to profit from increased share price and did ok but think long term
dividend stocks a good option
GSK. The dividends would not be of much comfort should the stock get dragged down with a market fall.
Have you invested in retail bonds before?
Have you invested in retail bonds before?
No stow I've not. Do they pay a yearly amount!
This crash is a long time coming.
We're only 14% down on where we were last April.
It doesn't even look like bear territory at the moment.
We're only 14% down on where we were last April.
It doesn't even look like bear territory at the moment.
Most of the retails bonds pay out twice per year. The dividends in an ISA or pension are not taxed. The bonds are traded on the LSE from start to finish. The bonds have different duration. Retail bonds are not covered by the UK deposit protection scheme. If a company goes out of business, you may lose some or all of your investment. Selftrade is one of the better brokers to use, as you can trade most of them online.
http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/learnaboutbonds.html
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/retail-bonds/retail-bonds-search.html
http://www.fixedincomeinvestor.co.uk/x/learnaboutbonds.html
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/retail-bonds/retail-bonds-search.html
I'd presume that it was only viewed as a technical rally, as some thought the market was temporarily oversold.
If you can think of some positive factors that might weigh against this tidal wave of risks, then I'll be amazed!
Negative factors
Oil price collapse symbolic of weak worldwide demand
Chinese $30 trillion debt
Brexit
Worldwide debt
ISIS
European migrant crisis
Hong Kong real estate bubble collapsing
Banks bad debts still a problem after 2008 crisis
UK Consumer credit binge
ONLY 14%
It was almost down that amount when you posted the above.
Surely you were anticipating a much larger fall than 14%?
If you can think of some positive factors that might weigh against this tidal wave of risks, then I'll be amazed!
Negative factors
Oil price collapse symbolic of weak worldwide demand
Chinese $30 trillion debt
Brexit
Worldwide debt
ISIS
European migrant crisis
Hong Kong real estate bubble collapsing
Banks bad debts still a problem after 2008 crisis
UK Consumer credit binge
ONLY 14%
It was almost down that amount when you posted the above.
Surely you were anticipating a much larger fall than 14%?
14% is a lot, but yes I certainly expect further falls. None of the above list have gone away.
Fear of new debt bubble as household borrowing soars
Households are borrowing more than £1 billion each month to finance new cars, holidays and big-ticket consumer items in a spending splurge that economists warn could fuel another dangerous debt bubble.
Figures from the Bank of England showed that unsecured lending to households rose at the fastest pace in a decade in January, rising by 9.1 per cent, a level not recorded since 2006. In total, consumers borrowed £1.6 billion in January, up from £1.1 billion the month before.
In what was described by economists as a rediscovered “zeal for borrowing”, £500 million was piled on to credit cards in January. In total, households owe £63.8 billion on credit cards and £115.7 billion in other loans, excluding mortgages, as low interest rates continue to drive up demand for unsecured credit.
This follows on from a spike in borrowing in November, when shoppers made the most of deals during the Black Friday weekend before Christmas and growth in consumer credit jumped by £300 million that month to £1.6 billion.
The sharp growth in consumer credit is likely to cause concern for Bank of England policymakers, who will be worried that Britons are making themselves vulnerable if another financial downturn were to occur.
“What we are seeing is the early stages of what could potentially be another debt problem,” Samuel Tombs, chief economist of Pantheon Macro-economics, said. “I think the Bank of England will have to act fairly soon this year to cool lending.” The Bank’s financial policy committee has said that it may raise the amount of money that banks are required to put aside to cover their lending as the economy continues its recovery from the financial crisis.
Some debt charities have expressed concern about the pace at which consumers are taking on credit.
Martin Beck, senior economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “The Bank of England has expressed increasing concern about the frothiness of the lending data in recent months, so while the FPC may not intervene in the buy-to-let market, broader action is possible.”
Mortgage approvals also soared in January, jumping to the highest level in two years, in a sign that would-be landlords are rushing to buy homes before the extra 3 per cent stamp duty on buy-to-let properties and second homes takes effect in April. The total figure for mortgage approvals in January was 75,581, hitting the highest level since January 2014 and up strongly from 71,335 in December. It also surpassed economists’ expectations of 74,000, but was still significantly below the pre-crisis rate of more than 100,000 a month.
Many analysts believe that mortgage approvals will fall once the new stamp duty charge comes into effect.
Ruth Miller, of Capital Economics, said: “The stamp duty surcharge should only provide a temporary stimulus to the housing market. Once this temporary effect fades, buyer demand will probably fall, easing the current upward pressure on mortgage approvals over the remainder of the year.”
Some economists believe that an interest rate rise from the present 0.5 per cent is the only way that Britons will curb borrowing.
Fear of new debt bubble as household borrowing soars
Households are borrowing more than £1 billion each month to finance new cars, holidays and big-ticket consumer items in a spending splurge that economists warn could fuel another dangerous debt bubble.
Figures from the Bank of England showed that unsecured lending to households rose at the fastest pace in a decade in January, rising by 9.1 per cent, a level not recorded since 2006. In total, consumers borrowed £1.6 billion in January, up from £1.1 billion the month before.
In what was described by economists as a rediscovered “zeal for borrowing”, £500 million was piled on to credit cards in January. In total, households owe £63.8 billion on credit cards and £115.7 billion in other loans, excluding mortgages, as low interest rates continue to drive up demand for unsecured credit.
This follows on from a spike in borrowing in November, when shoppers made the most of deals during the Black Friday weekend before Christmas and growth in consumer credit jumped by £300 million that month to £1.6 billion.
The sharp growth in consumer credit is likely to cause concern for Bank of England policymakers, who will be worried that Britons are making themselves vulnerable if another financial downturn were to occur.
“What we are seeing is the early stages of what could potentially be another debt problem,” Samuel Tombs, chief economist of Pantheon Macro-economics, said. “I think the Bank of England will have to act fairly soon this year to cool lending.” The Bank’s financial policy committee has said that it may raise the amount of money that banks are required to put aside to cover their lending as the economy continues its recovery from the financial crisis.
Some debt charities have expressed concern about the pace at which consumers are taking on credit.
Martin Beck, senior economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “The Bank of England has expressed increasing concern about the frothiness of the lending data in recent months, so while the FPC may not intervene in the buy-to-let market, broader action is possible.”
Mortgage approvals also soared in January, jumping to the highest level in two years, in a sign that would-be landlords are rushing to buy homes before the extra 3 per cent stamp duty on buy-to-let properties and second homes takes effect in April. The total figure for mortgage approvals in January was 75,581, hitting the highest level since January 2014 and up strongly from 71,335 in December. It also surpassed economists’ expectations of 74,000, but was still significantly below the pre-crisis rate of more than 100,000 a month.
Many analysts believe that mortgage approvals will fall once the new stamp duty charge comes into effect.
Ruth Miller, of Capital Economics, said: “The stamp duty surcharge should only provide a temporary stimulus to the housing market. Once this temporary effect fades, buyer demand will probably fall, easing the current upward pressure on mortgage approvals over the remainder of the year.”
Some economists believe that an interest rate rise from the present 0.5 per cent is the only way that Britons will curb borrowing.
Greggs shares up 15% today and Ocado down 3.5%...must be a huge recession coming.
Marvellous stuff from S_J.
You're saying that all that bad news will stop people from buying shares?
Yet in the last thirteen days the FTSE100 as I write has risen by 600 points.
Why hasn't it gone down instead?
You're saying that all that bad news will stop people from buying shares?
Yet in the last thirteen days the FTSE100 as I write has risen by 600 points.
Why hasn't it gone down instead?
greggs shutting 3 factories ,laying off 250 people 
tbh there pies/sausage rolls are grim but they have been making there munee out of other stuff anyway
tbh there pies/sausage rolls are grim but they have been making there munee out of other stuff anyway
They've got their fingers in a lot of pies...that's why I stopped buying them.
We can all pick a time period to suit the point they are trying to make, though you seem a particular expert at this! It is my belief that the overall trend is DOWN.
btw one reason for recent rises might be the anticipation of more ECB intervention announced at next week's meeting. I can't find any news of any economy growing to justify any upward short term moves.
We can all pick a time period to suit the point they are trying to make, though you seem a particular expert at this!
Well I gave a very good reason for choosing the starting point that I chose.
You simply chose a period to suit your argument.
I can't find any news of any economy growing to justify any upward short term moves.
Yet the market continues to rise?
Although up can be down the way you read the market.
Well I gave a very good reason for choosing the starting point that I chose.
You simply chose a period to suit your argument.
I can't find any news of any economy growing to justify any upward short term moves.
Yet the market continues to rise?
Although up can be down the way you read the market.
Had I bought on the straight reversal that occurred over the 11 and 12 of this month, I would be very nervous tonight after todays action.
In fact I would have taken profits today.
Better to be safe than sorry.
In fact I would have taken profits today.
Better to be safe than sorry.
I pick a period to suit my argument and you fish out a 13 day move
Down can be up for your arguments too. The FTSE 100 is down year to date (-1.42%) and in the last calendar year (-11.43%)
I offer lots of reasons why the sentiment should be negative, yet you offer nothing to explain the direction. We can all read a chart between two points.
Down can be up for your arguments too. The FTSE 100 is down year to date (-1.42%) and in the last calendar year (-11.43%)
I offer lots of reasons why the sentiment should be negative, yet you offer nothing to explain the direction. We can all read a chart between two points.
Yet in the last thirteen days the FTSE100 as I write has risen by 600 points.
Why hasn't it gone down instead?
My thirteen day rise came with a question. And I see you haven't answered it.
Why hasn't it gone down instead?
My thirteen day rise came with a question. And I see you haven't answered it.
The FTSE 100 is down year to date (-1.42%) and in the last calendar year (-11.43%)
Lol. Go back four years and it's up.
That's why tops and bottoms should be used as your benchmarks.
Not set periods of time which don't tell the proper story.
Lol. Go back four years and it's up.
That's why tops and bottoms should be used as your benchmarks.
Not set periods of time which don't tell the proper story.
This question?
Surely you were anticipating a much larger fall than 14%?
I consider 14% to be a very significant event. I'm expecting the market to lose a fair bit more, but the market does not trade on fundamentals to such a large extent, largely due to extremely high central bank intervention. Central bank intervention may work in the short to medium term, but the vast majority of world problems are not fixed. In fact, they have arguably not even hit their prime target, repairing bank balance sheets and in fact have created another source of instability in COCO bonds.
Surely you were anticipating a much larger fall than 14%?
I consider 14% to be a very significant event. I'm expecting the market to lose a fair bit more, but the market does not trade on fundamentals to such a large extent, largely due to extremely high central bank intervention. Central bank intervention may work in the short to medium term, but the vast majority of world problems are not fixed. In fact, they have arguably not even hit their prime target, repairing bank balance sheets and in fact have created another source of instability in COCO bonds.
How about the fact that the US dollar still amounts to ca. 2/3 of the world's reserve currencies? A country with $19 trillion debt. We aren't doing too good in Europe either!
http://cointelegraph.com/news/rumor-mill-new-reserve-currency-may-rock-us-dollar-in-october
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Budget_Deficit_and_Public_Debt_to_GDP_in_2012_(for_selected_EU_Members).png
http://cointelegraph.com/news/rumor-mill-new-reserve-currency-may-rock-us-dollar-in-october
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Budget_Deficit_and_Public_Debt_to_GDP_in_2012_(for_selected_EU_Members).png
| Negative factors | Positive factors |
| Chinese $30 trillion debt | |
| Worldwide debt | |
| Brexit | |
| 300 billion UK final salary pension deficit | |
| UK Dividend doomsday | |
| Oil price weakness symbolic of weak worldwide demand | |
| ISIS | |
| European migrant crisis | |
| Hong Kong real estate bubble collapsing | |
| Banks bad debts still a problem after 2008 crisis | |
| UK Consumer credit binge | |
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/income-investors-warned-they-are-heading-for-doomsday-for-divide/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/04/debt-explosion-awaits-unless-policymakers-defuse-demographic-tim/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/11423713/Final-salary-pension-Your-retirement-income-is-at-risk.html
i was reading about coco bonds a few days ago stow, the latest financial weapon of mass destruction? all the problems pre 2008 plus many trillions more in debt, fantastic!
i keep plugging gold, in sterling my stack (not that big) is up over 20% this year.
i keep plugging gold, in sterling my stack (not that big) is up over 20% this year.
Debtor days are over as BIS calls time on world credit binge
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/04/debtor-days-are-over-as-bis-c...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/04/debtor-days-are-over-as-bis-c...
the trouble is the board of the bis consists of the people who caused all the things the bis is now complaining about.
Is Dragi now firing blanks? If so, what else can they do & is the biggest market fall any of us might ever see in our lifetimes in the not to distant horizon? 
i think it may be time to put on my tin hat and head for the hills stow
have we reached peak bull sh*t yet or can the central bankers fool the markets for a while longer?
what's coming next? cash bans, supposedly in the name of fighting money laundering (we're all assumed guilty) but really a way to control us and steal our cash.
have we reached peak bull sh*t yet or can the central bankers fool the markets for a while longer?
what's coming next? cash bans, supposedly in the name of fighting money laundering (we're all assumed guilty) but really a way to control us and steal our cash.
Yes, THEY would love an electronic currency, so they could bale everyone in who had cash every time they failed to govern within the budget.
They also will be raising both the state pension age and even the age you can draw your personal pension at, which disgusts me!
How about some re-claim of gold or any asset they can grab their hands on?
Some new stealth taxes perhaps, which will only quash any chance of growth and plunge us all into a giant black hole.
They also will be raising both the state pension age and even the age you can draw your personal pension at, which disgusts me!
How about some re-claim of gold or any asset they can grab their hands on?
Some new stealth taxes perhaps, which will only quash any chance of growth and plunge us all into a giant black hole.
Well if all this is true its about time for a good old World War to reset the global economy.
i know, for all my plugging of gold there is nothing to stop them taxing/stealing it from me 
the only good thing is that the bundesbank have come out against doing away with cash.
we're going into the black hole one way or another, i say lets get it over and done with asap.
the only good thing is that the bundesbank have come out against doing away with cash.
we're going into the black hole one way or another, i say lets get it over and done with asap.
war is another way of diverting the public's attention from the mess that has been created baron. the neo-cons who control american foreign policy seem intent on this, hence surrounding russia with military hardware and overthrowing the corrupt but elected ukrainian government.
I've sent this thread to Morrissey so he can cheer himself up
So no one recommends we buy any shares at the moment then?
That's a comfort.
When Joe in the street talks about share prices it's time to sell.
And when it's all doom and gloom and things can't get any worse it's time to buy.
We're not at the buy stage yet judging by the market action; but we're getting there.
That's a comfort.
When Joe in the street talks about share prices it's time to sell.
And when it's all doom and gloom and things can't get any worse it's time to buy.
We're not at the buy stage yet judging by the market action; but we're getting there.
More like bye! This is no joke. Pretty well everything could be at risk. There could be some value after an almighty crash I suppose. Perhaps after a market fall of 1/3 or more. I liked the Morrissey comment 
rick santelli (a siren voice amongst the bullsh*ters) just nailed it on cnbc when he said something along the lines of 'the half life of these rotten policies (from the central bankers) seems to be a lot shorter than it was'
Best time to invest in zombie companies is late October
Yes we often get an undead cat bounce if the market falls around October.
"When Joe in the street talks about share prices it's time to sell."
Joe in the street does not have the faintest idea about what's happening. They have not checked the type of funds their pension are invested in since it was set up for them. They are likely to be in funds with over 50% equities. They are always the ones left holding the bag!
The people talking about an almighty crash are the growing minority, so you have it the wrong way around imo.
Your Fibonacci retracements are not going to count for *hit, even if they do happen to get it right from time to time. Whenever one level is breached, chartists just draw a new line anyway, don't they?
"We're not at the buy stage yet judging by the market action; but we're getting there."
Where's a reasonable level to buy then? The huge national debts, the pumped up, bubble valuation of companies with dwindling profits and ludicrous overvalued housing prices, based upon average earnings suggest we are a very long way away from it at the moment!
I have still not heard anyone suggest positive things to go against the avalanche of risks I listed. I await with anticipation.
Joe in the street does not have the faintest idea about what's happening. They have not checked the type of funds their pension are invested in since it was set up for them. They are likely to be in funds with over 50% equities. They are always the ones left holding the bag!
The people talking about an almighty crash are the growing minority, so you have it the wrong way around imo.
Your Fibonacci retracements are not going to count for *hit, even if they do happen to get it right from time to time. Whenever one level is breached, chartists just draw a new line anyway, don't they?
"We're not at the buy stage yet judging by the market action; but we're getting there."
Where's a reasonable level to buy then? The huge national debts, the pumped up, bubble valuation of companies with dwindling profits and ludicrous overvalued housing prices, based upon average earnings suggest we are a very long way away from it at the moment!
I have still not heard anyone suggest positive things to go against the avalanche of risks I listed. I await with anticipation.
Money printing?
I know they can't keep doing it for ever, but maybe they can keep doing it well beyond your or my productive life.
Hence "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
I know they can't keep doing it for ever, but maybe they can keep doing it well beyond your or my productive life.
Hence "the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
I have still not heard anyone suggest positive things to go against the avalanche of risks I listed. I await with anticipation.''
And when you wrote that the market was nearly 100 points up on the day, and over 600 points up from its last bottom.
How does that figure in your ''avalanche of risks?''
And when you wrote that the market was nearly 100 points up on the day, and over 600 points up from its last bottom.
How does that figure in your ''avalanche of risks?''
the markets dont move straight up or straight down. even during the great depression there were rallies which lasted months only to be wiped out as new lows were reached. in 1930 there were two historic dow rallies, the first was nearly 50%, yet at the end of the year the market was down 50%. from 1929 to 1932 the dow lost 80%.
How can they take peoples precious metals?
How can they know who has them?
How can they know who has them?
if you try to sell them they can take them off you. i have to take a form of id with me (passport or driving licence) each time i buy so there is a record of me owning gold, if the government wants they could force all bullion dealers to name their clients.
they confiscated gold in america, people were compelled to sell at a fixed price and there was a threat of prison for those that didnt.
they confiscated gold in america, people were compelled to sell at a fixed price and there was a threat of prison for those that didnt.
Financial repression ... there's another major positive.
Zero or negative interest rates and people buy stocks and assets looking for some sort of positive yield.
Again, it might be wrong, it might be not fair, and it will have to end one day.
But you might be dead by then.
That's why I stick to betting. You actually get to find out whether you were right or wrong, rather than relying on THEM not distorting all but the very longest term outcome in THEIR favour.
Zero or negative interest rates and people buy stocks and assets looking for some sort of positive yield.
Again, it might be wrong, it might be not fair, and it will have to end one day.
But you might be dead by then.
That's why I stick to betting. You actually get to find out whether you were right or wrong, rather than relying on THEM not distorting all but the very longest term outcome in THEIR favour.
i cant see how you think money printing and negative interest rates are positives screaming. they are merely ways of delaying the inevitable. if i am faced with negative rates i'll get my cash out of the banks (as long as cash hasnt been eliminated by then!) just as lots of others will, a good old fashion bank run could follow. they could well cause more bubbles in stocks and property.
i've been amazed the charade has gone on as long as it has but accept that it could go on for a while longer. the trouble is lots of warning signs are flashing at the same time and we are on decidely shaky ground now.
i've been amazed the charade has gone on as long as it has but accept that it could go on for a while longer. the trouble is lots of warning signs are flashing at the same time and we are on decidely shaky ground now.
they are merely ways of delaying the inevitable.
Exactly. And it's already been delayed for nearly a decade. Why not another decade? And another one after that?
Savvy investors have been confidently predicting that THEY are merely delaying the inevitable ever since 2007. And still this inevitable crash is not materializing. Hence why I'm arguing that the status quo is a "positive".
Remember that the Fed has ceased QE and has actually signalled rate RISES. So there's all that scope to resume QE, backtrack on rate rises and then lower them again.
Exactly. And it's already been delayed for nearly a decade. Why not another decade? And another one after that?
Savvy investors have been confidently predicting that THEY are merely delaying the inevitable ever since 2007. And still this inevitable crash is not materializing. Hence why I'm arguing that the status quo is a "positive".
Remember that the Fed has ceased QE and has actually signalled rate RISES. So there's all that scope to resume QE, backtrack on rate rises and then lower them again.
jollyswagman
So according to your logic, the FTSE100 has been in a bear market since late December 1999 when it was 800 points plus higher?
So according to your logic, the FTSE100 has been in a bear market since late December 1999 when it was 800 points plus higher?
i cant see how you think money printing and negative interest rates are positives screaming
It's quite simple as regards share prices.
Money printing means more money in the system which has to go somewhere.
Low interest rates means cheaper borrowing which should result in growth (profits.)
It's quite simple as regards share prices.
Money printing means more money in the system which has to go somewhere.
Low interest rates means cheaper borrowing which should result in growth (profits.)
crippen you really are most disingenuous, nowhere does my logic suggest the ftse has been in a bear market since 1999 when it was 800 points higher. i have neither said nor suggested such a thing.
crippen i explained all this to you in october last year, i told you about the bubbles and said what caused them and when they finished. you chose dates to fit in with your pre conceived ideas which unfortunately for you only strengthened my case and you are trying to do the same again here. 1999/2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble and 2007/08 the housing bubble as i told you before.
i also explained to you that virtually all the money from qe had done nothing for the real economy but had merely stoked more bubbles, i even named the stock market as one of them. rising stock prices have done nothing for the average person who doesnt own them but have benefited those at the top who do. now a few months later you think you think you are explaining to me where the money from qe went by saying it caused stock prices to go up which is what you didnt acknowledge back then. absolutely priceless.
i note that at that time i criticised qe but you defended it.
So you disagree with QE?
Yet everyone seems to think it has worked including America.
Even the reluctant EU have got a programme of QE going.
is what you posted. now, on a thread on the politics forum, you are saying that eu qe is a failure;
'Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing.'
so have you changed your mind and realised that qe is a disaster for the real economy and most people or are you saying british and american qe worked well but eu qe is no good?
your position seems to be somewhat inconsistent.
crippen i explained all this to you in october last year, i told you about the bubbles and said what caused them and when they finished. you chose dates to fit in with your pre conceived ideas which unfortunately for you only strengthened my case and you are trying to do the same again here. 1999/2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble and 2007/08 the housing bubble as i told you before.
i also explained to you that virtually all the money from qe had done nothing for the real economy but had merely stoked more bubbles, i even named the stock market as one of them. rising stock prices have done nothing for the average person who doesnt own them but have benefited those at the top who do. now a few months later you think you think you are explaining to me where the money from qe went by saying it caused stock prices to go up which is what you didnt acknowledge back then. absolutely priceless.
i note that at that time i criticised qe but you defended it.
So you disagree with QE?
Yet everyone seems to think it has worked including America.
Even the reluctant EU have got a programme of QE going.
is what you posted. now, on a thread on the politics forum, you are saying that eu qe is a failure;
'Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing.'
so have you changed your mind and realised that qe is a disaster for the real economy and most people or are you saying british and american qe worked well but eu qe is no good?
your position seems to be somewhat inconsistent.
so have you changed your mind
No jolly, what I said was that QE had worked for The UK and the USA, and now Europe were trying it.
Then later.
''Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing''
That's what I wrote.
Which is very different to your account of what I meant.
You seem to get very confused.
No jolly, what I said was that QE had worked for The UK and the USA, and now Europe were trying it.
Then later.
''Their programme of QE as a last resort has resulted in nothing''
That's what I wrote.
Which is very different to your account of what I meant.
You seem to get very confused.
I think I do remember you explaining about the market action during 1999/2000 and 2007/08.
It was more or less the same account that I'd given you earlier.
It was more or less the same account that I'd given you earlier.
i'm not confused at all crippen, you're clueless, that much is clear.
i see your cognitive disssonance hasnt improved.
i see your cognitive disssonance hasnt improved.
im waiting for 'helicopter money'
seriously how fooked is economy for that to be even talked about
seriously how fooked is economy for that to be even talked about
I made most of my precious metal bars so they won't know about them.
Well as long as they don't read this forum.
Well as long as they don't read this forum.
Europe is now drowning under the cost of welfare bills
When she isn’t shipping in more Syrian refugees, or trying to find new ways to destroy the Greek economy, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of quoting an alarming statistic: Europe accounts for just 7pc of the world’s population, and 25pc of its GDP, and yet it also accounts for a massive 50pc of its welfare spending.
The point is an important one. Europe’s welfare spending is out of control, and is on a scale that is both lavish and unaffordable compared with the rest of the world. There is a problem, however. Neither she, nor any other political leader in Europe, has the will to do anything about it.
Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, has this week published updated figures on the total welfare bill across Europe. It is rising, and in some countries is getting up to a quarter of national output. Meanwhile, the percentage of spending on stuff like infrastructure or education, which increase an economy’s potential output, is falling.
So long as that is true, it is very hard to see anything other than a bleak future for any of Europe’s economies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/23/europe-is-now--drowning-under-the-cost-of-welfare-bills/?WT.mc_id=e_DM102489&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections_2016_03_24&utm_campaign=DM102489
When she isn’t shipping in more Syrian refugees, or trying to find new ways to destroy the Greek economy, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is fond of quoting an alarming statistic: Europe accounts for just 7pc of the world’s population, and 25pc of its GDP, and yet it also accounts for a massive 50pc of its welfare spending.
The point is an important one. Europe’s welfare spending is out of control, and is on a scale that is both lavish and unaffordable compared with the rest of the world. There is a problem, however. Neither she, nor any other political leader in Europe, has the will to do anything about it.
Eurostat, the statistical agency of the European Union, has this week published updated figures on the total welfare bill across Europe. It is rising, and in some countries is getting up to a quarter of national output. Meanwhile, the percentage of spending on stuff like infrastructure or education, which increase an economy’s potential output, is falling.
So long as that is true, it is very hard to see anything other than a bleak future for any of Europe’s economies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/23/europe-is-now--drowning-under-the-cost-of-welfare-bills/?WT.mc_id=e_DM102489&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_Cit_New_Tue_9Sections_2016_03_24&utm_campaign=DM102489
And with the UK's government backing down on benefit cuts again, we're in the same boat.
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