Ebola 'crisis'

hope it doesn't turn out to be as bad as bird flu

Aye I wonder how much the pharmaceutical companies made on that..

poor bait

Need to get back to line and length by 'eck.

If the authorities are really concerned simply ban all travel from any country with Ebola until it's under control. No need to screen passengers if they weren't allowed to travel in the first place.

It's just a ploy by the government to divert the attention of the sheeple away from the important issues

Well its working. We haven't had an X Factor thread for the current series.

Kofi Annan agrees with me..

Sensible chap..

The number of cases is doubling every three weeks. That means every person on the planet will have the disease by the end of next year.

That won't happen, but only because life will have ground to a halt at some stage, with people refusing to leave their homes and thereby at last doing the only thing which will stop the virus: quarantining it. The economic consequences would be devastating though.

But there seems no will to pre-empt that disaster by quarantining the disease. The US is cheerfully flying victims across the globe.

Neither guinness2dear nor Mr Obama seems to grasp the exponential implication of doubling every three weeks.

Don't forget Kofi

Ebola: Kofi Annan 'bitterly disappointed' by response to Ebola
55 minutes ago
The World Health Organization is to "ramp up" efforts to prevent Ebola spreading beyond the three countries most affected by the deadly virus, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.
Fifteen African countries will receive more help in areas including prevention and protection.
But former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has said he is "bitterly disappointed" with the international community's response.
In an interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Mr Annan said richer countries should have moved faster.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29654784

Yep he's disappointed with the funding.

He's disappointed with the levels of prevention and protection in Africa. He understands that the "3-4 thousand dead" as a result of doubling every three weeks under current policies implies worldwide armageddon unless vast resources are thrown at the virus.

He's not innumerate, which means he understands the exponential implication of doubling.

And he's not medically ignorant, so he understands how a mutating viral infection (ebola) differs from a parasitic infection (malaria).

er, I thought it was doubling every four weeks? 

Isabelle Nuttall, the director of the WHO’s Global Capacities, Alert and Response, announced on Thursday that 9,000 people have so far been infected with Ebola, adding that the death toll from the disease will rise to more than 4,500 this week.

“Our data shows that cases are doubling every four weeks. The disease is still widespread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and there is persistent transmission of the virus,” she said.

not that it matters 

Well this ignoramus (just like Obama) will concede when the doubling continues to malaria levels.

It will be kicked in the nuts long before then. But feel free to drag this fred up again when we are all locked indoors you pompous twát

The World Health Organisation (WHO) admits the figures are underestimates

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28755033

WHO data show doubling every 4 weeks. If the figures are underestimates, then doubling every three weeks might be more plausible.

But it's the doubling which is the mathematically terrifying aspect; the tipping point where you think twice whether to go to work is way closer than seems obvious, whether the period is three weeks or four weeks.

Malaria doesn't double. It's a parasitical infection limited by climate.

It will be kicked in the nuts long before then.

Make you mind up. How do you propose to kick it in the nuts without funding?

Your non-funding model has already resulted in deaths on three continents.

One of the many health 'experts' said all they need to cut it down is soap and water.

They've got the Atlantic in west Africa, just send soap.

Soap costs money.So does clean water and sanitation. Guinness2dear would be seething.

But I expect that that money will be found, eventually and begrudgingly, and the disease will be contained, if not kicked in the nuts. And guinness2dear can go on seething that it was all over-hyped and the money was wasted.

I don't think Malaria is a good comparison.

It is not contagious and the mortality rate is 20%

Ebola is 70% if you consider the lag between diagnosed cases and deaths

It was first recognised in 1976 and in 34 years to 2010 there were a total of 1,850 cases . There are now that many per week

If anything the US/UK seem to be playing it down , they certainly didn;t give any indication they expected people wearing these spacesuits in america to come down with it .

are fruit bats not carriers of the virus and considered a delicacy in west Africa ? stop eating them, might help, just a thought.

ok let keep track, 4500 dead so far. Have heard its going to "double every 4 weeks" and also "1.4 million dead by January"

personally I think thats complete bollox, but lets see

re america/uk reaction, they are not bothered really, the 2 nurses in Texas who caught it were not given any training at all, seems like it was "just chuck this on, no worries" & "oh you have a high temp after treating the guy with ebola, no worries get on this plane with 100 other passengers", its not the actions of a country concerned in anyway about this, imo

oh ps send more money we need a 1 billion dollar emergency fund

The warning is not that the virus is "going to double every 4 weeks".

The warning is that the virus "is doubling every 4 weeks".

I read one leading expert is predicting 10 million cases per week in UK by next March.

^ This country seems well prepared for dealing with any cases if we do get it here.  I think the thing with America they under-estimated how serious the situation was, and they over-estimated how prepared they were to deal with it. 

And that nurse who got it after treating a patient with Ebola, it was unbelievable that she was then allowed to get on a plane with over 100 passengers when she had a fever !  They need to aggressively stick to emergency protocol and all the correct procedures, but they have already made several blunders.

I wonder what Cath22 would make of all this. Assuming they weren't wiped out by bird flu, of course.

Latest on red button

No impact from Ebola help pledges

aprox 45,000 dead so far

this may not be all hype

apologies 4,500 dead

still 4,500 then, whens this exponential growth going to kick in

Six months ago

[   This image is no longer available.   ]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28755033

How many more exponential curves would you like to see before it becomes a worthwhile investment to turn them into S-curves before the UK one begins?

449, its actually going down!

they could be any curves tbf, lets see how they progress, November should have what? 15k dead? This started in the 1970s I heard

Another question they say 9000 infected, 4500 dead, mortality rate 70%

4493

Those lines are exponential curves, not "any curves".

The graph is cumulative deaths to 14 October. The 4493 figure is 3 days ago. This started in March 2014. Previous outbreaks occurred in countries with sufficient resources to tackle them. Sierra Leone is no such country.

Also, wtf does your "to be fair" refer to?

if you say so

I got some tickets for tonights Euromillions superdraw, because the odds are better of winning that than contracting Ebola

Some informed numbers,
.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100

We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still.

and a counter to see how we compare
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http://ebolacount.com/#total-case-count

Oct 17, 2014 -- 1:34PM, brendanuk1 wrote:

449, its actually going down!they could be any curves tbf, lets see how they progress, November should have what? 15k dead? This started in the 1970s I heard Another question they say 9000 infected, 4500 dead, mortality rate 70%

Well yeah , 4,500 dead .The other 4,500 aren't all cured  , about 2,000 of them will be dead within a week

good point, but how do you estimate 2000 dead from 4500 infected from a mortality rate of 70%?

ok think I got it

infected and cured: 1350
infected and died: 4500

infected still alive not cured: 4500 - 1350 =3150
infected might die: 3150/100 * 70 = 2205

1 or 2 carriers get off at Heathrow ,Make it to central London ,the word Disaster will not cover it ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease

Ebola:
Man removes daughter from school over facemask refusal

A father worried about Ebola arriving in the UK has taken his teenage daughter out of school because it will not let her wear a facemask.

Jon O'Brien, from Turvey, Bedfordshire, said staff at Sharnbrook Upper School told him that wearing a mask "wouldn't be appropriate".

The father said it was his "right as a concerned parent".

Bedford Borough Council said parents who remove children from school without "legitimate reason" may be prosecuted.

"Under the Education Act, we are required to ensure that an individual's access to education is not disrupted," a council spokesman said.

"Therefore, if a parent removes their child from school without a legitimate reason, they are liable for prosecution."

The school said nobody was available to comment.

.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-29656462

--------------------------------------------------------------

Strange, but some people argue muslims should be allowed to wear their face veils in public, but a mask for a more valid reason than religion, is banned.

This scare has become typical media hysteria in recent years. Read a fantastic book that lists them all from Edwina's egg scare to foot and mouth called Scared to Death by Chris Booker. It always ends up with more regulation and politicians fighting to gain attention in the media with silly headlines.The media feed the hype and the politicians vie with each other to spend public money on any initiative whilst serious concerns go unnoticed.

2 million (mostly children) die from diarrhea each year, the 'cure' for this clean water and sanitation

Ebola latest: 4,539

Don't worry until it gets to 4,000,000.

...a mask for a more valid reason than religion, is banned.

except it's not a more valid reason, it's just ignorance, as ebola is not an airborne virus; or, more likely, the father is trying to make the same point as CMAT

Doubtful, it appears to be a posh school.

what difference does that make - plenty of posh racists around

Heaven forfend, are there?

The Zimbabwe cricket team have just announced they have an ebola in their team ! They also have an ebatsman and and efielda too !

New England Journal of medicine from October 16, the most up to date scientific info i could find on 19th October, posted above

We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still.

actual number 13,703 today
http://ebolacount.com/#total-case-count

maybe screaming from beneaththewaves wants to post some more "exponential curves", but looks like gross overestimate to me. Heard today that its going through a "plateau" Have panic mongers shot their bolt already

As others say exponential curves should scare people.
People on this site of all sites should understand that, it's not that much different to how the Martingale system or doubling up counters on chessboards quickly runs away from you, except your are "doubling up" very sick people.

except its not exponential

Exponential or not it is dangerous for all.
Imagine a band of suicidal terrorists infected with the virus who use the incubation period to infiltrate London,New York,Rio or somewhere civilised like Paris. The virus could be so widespread that the emergency services would be swamped.
Just a thought.

Any graph of a nasty thing that's significanly turning the wrong way from a straight line is not one to be ignored.

When this first came out I got impression that you needed to do something significant like rub blood or spit in a little cut to catch it but the number of trained health workers with protective clothing who have caught it is another thing to be worried about

screaming from beneaththewaves 16 Oct 14 23:45 Joined: 30 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 7,200 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
Soap costs money.So does clean water and sanitation. Guinness2dear would be seething.

But I expect that that money will be found, eventually and begrudgingly, and the disease will be contained, if not kicked in the nuts. And guinness2dear can go on seething that it was all over-hyped and the money was wasted.

Money and resources are finally pouring into the region and the rate of increase in cases has slowed. Great. Wish the numbers weren't still increasing though.

But at least this proves that the previous plan of playing down the danger and relying on ad hoc volunteers and local facilities was plain wrong.

I wonder why this car has a space either side of it



.
http://i60.tinypic.com/14jut0p.jpg

I see the number of ebola deaths has been revised downwards  .... Norwegian blues ?

The latest report put the total death toll at 4,818 out of 13,042 cases as of Nov. 2, compared to 4,951 deaths in Friday's Ebola update;

strangest exponential curves ever

FFS. The rate of infection and death rose exponentially for months while the world assumed it was overhyped and ignorable. Only now that money has been spent on tackling it has the rate of increase decelerated. Hence those who claimed it was a scare story have been proven wrong by the latest figures.

For example:

THE first Ebola patients are receiving treatment at a UK-funded medical facility in ­Sierra Leone after British troops worked round the clock to construct it in eight weeks.

Up to 80 victims of the virus at any one time will eventually be looked after in the centre near the capital Freetown, the first of six created across the country to deal with a severe bed shortage.

It is being operated by Save the Children alongside a 12-bed centre staffed by British Army medics for healthcare workers and international staff responding to the crisis and a testing laboratory run by UK scientists.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that there are currently just 326 treatment beds in Sierra Leone.

International Development Secretary Justine Greening said: “Patients are being turned away from hospitals, reducing their chance of survival and allowing the disease to spread.

“That is why British Army ­engineers, together with Sierra Leonean construction workers, have been working round the clock for the past eight weeks to get Kerry Town built.

Numbers of infections are still increasing despite these facilities. Are you suggesting the disease would have magically become uninfectious without them?

Channel 5 new series - Bipolar and paranoid about ebola

Stat of the day:

More americans have been married to Kym Kardashian than have died of Ebola.

Marriage to Kim Kardashian (spreading)

He hasn't got it

.
http://i60.tinypic.com/289j3hf.jpg

.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30011521

A total of 4,960 people have died from Ebola this year according to statistics released by the World Health Organisation on 4 November. More than half of those cases - 2,766 - were in Liberia.

But this cumulative figure, which is widely reported, can only go one way - up. It gives no meaningful insight into how the outbreak has developed says Hans Rosling, professor of global health at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.

"It's a bad habit of media. Media just want as many zeroes as possible. They'd prefer to say in Liberia we've had about 2,700 cases or 3,000 cases," he says.

at last someone who understands numbers

Its a crisis if Bob Geldof says it is, he knows about these things.

Gordon Strachen asking for a fiver prompted me to post this

.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfumento/2014/10/23/despite-world-panic-the-rate-of-new-ebola-infections-is-already-slowing-down/

cracking analysis from 23rd October

And of course, each week that January 20 CDC estimate keeps falling farther and farther behind. As they knew it would. It had but one purpose: to terrify. And it worked. It always does.

Time and again beginning with AIDS, both agencies have grossly exaggerated disease outbreaks. That includes Ebola twice before, SARS, avian flu, swine flu and Mideast Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). I debunked most of those at the time, but the health agencies know that nothing they ever pipe will be so outrageous that the mainstream media won’t dance to their tune. Meanwhile, endemic diseases that don’t make headlines, like tuberculosis, malaria, and infectious childhood diarrhea, each kill more people every two days than have died of Ebola in 28 years.

Sadly, the CDC and WHO have spent decades crying about monsters in the closet, distracting us from the very real ones in our midst.

It sure takes your eye off the rest of what is going on in this country.

I wonder if the Tory govt send more money for Ebola aid than they do for the hungry in Africa.

After all, rich people could die from Ebola if it got over here, but they certainly won't starve.

I think I write for Forbes..

Brendan keeping the fred ticking..

Cretinous analysis from Forbes.

A disease spreads, more and more people are affected, money and resources are deployed to counter it, the effects are then contained, so the money and resources must have been wasted, right?

The same thinking which still maintains that, because we saw no ill effects from the millennium bug, then the time and money spent neutralizing it must have been wasted.

can't be worse than man flu Shirley ....

Any updates Brendan?