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13 Oct 14
23:46
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19 Jan 07
Over hype? 3-4 thousand dead.
How many will die from malaria this year.
Foreign aid syndrome.
How many will die from malaria this year.
Foreign aid syndrome.
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Replies: 79
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hope it doesn't turn out to be as bad as bird flu
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Aye I wonder how much the pharmaceutical companies made on that..
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poor bait
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Need to get back to line and length by 'eck.
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If the authorities are really concerned simply ban all travel from any country with Ebola until it's under control. No need to screen passengers if they weren't allowed to travel in the first place.
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It's just a ploy by the government to divert the attention of the sheeple away from the important issues
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Well its working. We haven't had an X Factor thread for the current series.
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Kofi Annan agrees with me..
Sensible chap.. |
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The number of cases is doubling every three weeks. That means every person on the planet will have the disease by the end of next year.
That won't happen, but only because life will have ground to a halt at some stage, with people refusing to leave their homes and thereby at last doing the only thing which will stop the virus: quarantining it. The economic consequences would be devastating though. But there seems no will to pre-empt that disaster by quarantining the disease. The US is cheerfully flying victims across the globe. Neither guinness2dear nor Mr Obama seems to grasp the exponential implication of doubling every three weeks. |
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Don't forget Kofi
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 Ebola: Kofi Annan 'bitterly disappointed' by response to Ebola 55 minutes ago The World Health Organization is to "ramp up" efforts to prevent Ebola spreading beyond the three countries most affected by the deadly virus, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Fifteen African countries will receive more help in areas including prevention and protection. But former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has said he is "bitterly disappointed" with the international community's response. In an interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Mr Annan said richer countries should have moved faster. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29654784 |
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Yep he's disappointed with the funding.
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He's disappointed with the levels of prevention and protection in Africa. He understands that the "3-4 thousand dead" as a result of doubling every three weeks under current policies implies worldwide armageddon unless vast resources are thrown at the virus.
He's not innumerate, which means he understands the exponential implication of doubling. And he's not medically ignorant, so he understands how a mutating viral infection (ebola) differs from a parasitic infection (malaria). |
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er, I thought it was doubling every four weeks?
Isabelle Nuttall, the director of the WHO’s Global Capacities, Alert and Response, announced on Thursday that 9,000 people have so far been infected with Ebola, adding that the death toll from the disease will rise to more than 4,500 this week. “Our data shows that cases are doubling every four weeks. The disease is still widespread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and there is persistent transmission of the virus,” she said. not that it matters |
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Well this ignoramus (just like Obama) will concede when the doubling continues to malaria levels.
It will be kicked in the nuts long before then. But feel free to drag this fred up again when we are all locked indoors you pompous twát |
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The World Health Organisation (WHO) admits the figures are underestimates
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28755033 WHO data show doubling every 4 weeks. If the figures are underestimates, then doubling every three weeks might be more plausible. But it's the doubling which is the mathematically terrifying aspect; the tipping point where you think twice whether to go to work is way closer than seems obvious, whether the period is three weeks or four weeks. |
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Malaria doesn't double. It's a parasitical infection limited by climate.
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It will be kicked in the nuts long before then.
Make you mind up. How do you propose to kick it in the nuts without funding? Your non-funding model has already resulted in deaths on three continents. |
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One of the many health 'experts' said all they need to cut it down is soap and water.
They've got the Atlantic in west Africa, just send soap. |
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Soap costs money.So does clean water and sanitation. Guinness2dear would be seething.
But I expect that that money will be found, eventually and begrudgingly, and the disease will be contained, if not kicked in the nuts. And guinness2dear can go on seething that it was all over-hyped and the money was wasted. |
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I don't think Malaria is a good comparison.
It is not contagious and the mortality rate is 20% Ebola is 70% if you consider the lag between diagnosed cases and deaths It was first recognised in 1976 and in 34 years to 2010 there were a total of 1,850 cases . There are now that many per week If anything the US/UK seem to be playing it down , they certainly didn;t give any indication they expected people wearing these spacesuits in america to come down with it . |
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are fruit bats not carriers of the virus and considered a delicacy in west Africa ? stop eating them, might help, just a thought.
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ok let keep track, 4500 dead so far. Have heard its going to "double every 4 weeks" and also "1.4 million dead by January"
personally I think thats complete bollox, but lets see  re america/uk reaction, they are not bothered really, the 2 nurses in Texas who caught it were not given any training at all, seems like it was "just chuck this on, no worries" & "oh you have a high temp after treating the guy with ebola, no worries get on this plane with 100 other passengers", its not the actions of a country concerned in anyway about this, imo |
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oh ps send more money we need a 1 billion dollar emergency fund
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The warning is not that the virus is "going to double every 4 weeks".
The warning is that the virus "is doubling every 4 weeks". |
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I read one leading expert is predicting 10 million cases per week in UK by next March.
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^ This country seems well prepared for dealing with any cases if we do get it here. I think the thing with America they under-estimated how serious the situation was, and they over-estimated how prepared they were to deal with it.
And that nurse who got it after treating a patient with Ebola, it was unbelievable that she was then allowed to get on a plane with over 100 passengers when she had a fever ! They need to aggressively stick to emergency protocol and all the correct procedures, but they have already made several blunders. |
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I wonder what Cath22 would make of all this. Assuming they weren't wiped out by bird flu, of course.
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Latest on red button
No impact from Ebola help pledges aprox 45,000 dead so far this may not be all hype  |
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apologies 4,500 dead
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still 4,500 then, whens this exponential growth going to kick in
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Six months ago
[img]http://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/screaming_from_beneaththewaves/decf03342e1502bccb58564b8c5fe767.jpg?v=202200[/img] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-28755033 How many more exponential curves would you like to see before it becomes a worthwhile investment to turn them into S-curves before the UK one begins? |
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449, its actually going down!
they could be any curves tbf, lets see how they progress, November should have what? 15k dead? This started in the 1970s I heard Another question they say 9000 infected, 4500 dead, mortality rate 70% |
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4493
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Those lines are exponential curves, not "any curves".
The graph is cumulative deaths to 14 October. The 4493 figure is 3 days ago. This started in March 2014. Previous outbreaks occurred in countries with sufficient resources to tackle them. Sierra Leone is no such country. Also, wtf does your "to be fair" refer to? |
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if you say so
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I got some tickets for tonights Euromillions superdraw, because the odds are better of winning that than contracting Ebola
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Some informed numbers,
. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100 We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still. and a counter to see how we compare . http://ebolacount.com/#total-case-count |