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Ebola 'crisis'
Ebola 'crisis'
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Replies: 79
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good point, but how do you estimate 2000 dead from 4500 infected from a mortality rate of 70%?
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ok think I got it
infected and cured: 1350 infected and died: 4500 infected still alive not cured: 4500 - 1350 =3150 infected might die: 3150/100 * 70 = 2205 |
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1 or 2 carriers get off at Heathrow ,Make it to central London ,the word Disaster will not cover it ...
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease
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Ebola:
Man removes daughter from school over facemask refusal A father worried about Ebola arriving in the UK has taken his teenage daughter out of school because it will not let her wear a facemask. Jon O'Brien, from Turvey, Bedfordshire, said staff at Sharnbrook Upper School told him that wearing a mask "wouldn't be appropriate". The father said it was his "right as a concerned parent". Bedford Borough Council said parents who remove children from school without "legitimate reason" may be prosecuted. "Under the Education Act, we are required to ensure that an individual's access to education is not disrupted," a council spokesman said. "Therefore, if a parent removes their child from school without a legitimate reason, they are liable for prosecution." The school said nobody was available to comment. . http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-29656462 -------------------------------------------------------------- Strange, but some people argue muslims should be allowed to wear their face veils in public, but a mask for a more valid reason than religion, is banned. |
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This scare has become typical media hysteria in recent years. Read a fantastic book that lists them all from Edwina's egg scare to foot and mouth called Scared to Death by Chris Booker. It always ends up with more regulation and politicians fighting to gain attention in the media with silly headlines.The media feed the hype and the politicians vie with each other to spend public money on any initiative whilst serious concerns go unnoticed.
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2 million (mostly children) die from diarrhea each year, the 'cure' for this clean water and sanitation
 Ebola latest: 4,539 |
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Don't worry until it gets to 4,000,000.
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...a mask for a more valid reason than religion, is banned.
except it's not a more valid reason, it's just ignorance, as ebola is not an airborne virus; or, more likely, the father is trying to make the same point as CMAT |
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Doubtful, it appears to be a posh school.
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what difference does that make - plenty of posh racists around
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Heaven forfend, are there?
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The Zimbabwe cricket team have just announced they have an ebola in their team ! They also have an ebatsman and and efielda too !
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New England Journal of medicine from October 16, the most up to date scientific info i could find on 19th October, posted above
We estimate that, at the current rate of increase, assuming no changes in control efforts, the cumulative number of confirmed and probable cases by November 2 (the end of week 44 of the epidemic) will be 5740 in Guinea, 9890 in Liberia, and 5000 in Sierra Leone, exceeding 20,000 cases in total. The true case load, including suspected cases and undetected cases, will be higher still. actual number 13,703 today http://ebolacount.com/#total-case-count maybe screaming from beneaththewaves wants to post some more "exponential curves", but looks like gross overestimate to me. Heard today that its going through a "plateau"  Have panic mongers shot their bolt already |
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As others say exponential curves should scare people.
People on this site of all sites should understand that, it's not that much different to how the Martingale system or doubling up counters on chessboards quickly runs away from you, except your are "doubling up" very sick people. |
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except its not exponential
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Exponential or not it is dangerous for all.
Imagine a band of suicidal terrorists infected with the virus who use the incubation period to infiltrate London,New York,Rio or somewhere civilised like Paris. The virus could be so widespread that the emergency services would be swamped. Just a thought. |
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Any graph of a nasty thing that's significanly turning the wrong way from a straight line is not one to be ignored.
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When this first came out I got impression that you needed to do something significant like rub blood or spit in a little cut to catch it but the number of trained health workers with protective clothing who have caught it is another thing to be worried about
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screaming from beneaththewaves 16 Oct 14 23:45 Joined: 30 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 7,200 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
Soap costs money.So does clean water and sanitation. Guinness2dear would be seething. But I expect that that money will be found, eventually and begrudgingly, and the disease will be contained, if not kicked in the nuts. And guinness2dear can go on seething that it was all over-hyped and the money was wasted. Money and resources are finally pouring into the region and the rate of increase in cases has slowed. Great. Wish the numbers weren't still increasing though. But at least this proves that the previous plan of playing down the danger and relying on ad hoc volunteers and local facilities was plain wrong. |
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I wonder why this car has a space either side of it
 . http://i60.tinypic.com/14jut0p.jpg |
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I see the number of ebola deaths has been revised downwards
 .... Norwegian blues ? |
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The latest report put the total death toll at 4,818 out of 13,042 cases as of Nov. 2, compared to 4,951 deaths in Friday's Ebola update;
strangest exponential curves ever |
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FFS. The rate of infection and death rose exponentially for months while the world assumed it was overhyped and ignorable. Only now that money has been spent on tackling it has the rate of increase decelerated. Hence those who claimed it was a scare story have been proven wrong by the latest figures.
For example: THE first Ebola patients are receiving treatment at a UK-funded medical facility in Sierra Leone after British troops worked round the clock to construct it in eight weeks. Up to 80 victims of the virus at any one time will eventually be looked after in the centre near the capital Freetown, the first of six created across the country to deal with a severe bed shortage. It is being operated by Save the Children alongside a 12-bed centre staffed by British Army medics for healthcare workers and international staff responding to the crisis and a testing laboratory run by UK scientists. The World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates that there are currently just 326 treatment beds in Sierra Leone. International Development Secretary Justine Greening said: “Patients are being turned away from hospitals, reducing their chance of survival and allowing the disease to spread. “That is why British Army engineers, together with Sierra Leonean construction workers, have been working round the clock for the past eight weeks to get Kerry Town built. Numbers of infections are still increasing despite these facilities. Are you suggesting the disease would have magically become uninfectious without them? |
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Channel 5 new series - Bipolar and paranoid about ebola
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Stat of the day:
More americans have been married to Kym Kardashian than have died of Ebola. |
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Marriage to Kim Kardashian (spreading)
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He hasn't got it
. http://i60.tinypic.com/289j3hf.jpg |
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30011521 A total of 4,960 people have died from Ebola this year according to statistics released by the World Health Organisation on 4 November. More than half of those cases - 2,766 - were in Liberia. But this cumulative figure, which is widely reported, can only go one way - up. It gives no meaningful insight into how the outbreak has developed says Hans Rosling, professor of global health at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden. "It's a bad habit of media. Media just want as many zeroes as possible. They'd prefer to say in Liberia we've had about 2,700 cases or 3,000 cases," he says. at last someone who understands numbers |
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Its a crisis if Bob Geldof says it is, he knows about these things.
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Gordon Strachen asking for a fiver prompted me to post this
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelfumento/2014/10/23/despite-world-panic-the-rate-of-new-ebola-infections-is-already-slowing-down/ cracking analysis from 23rd October And of course, each week that January 20 CDC estimate keeps falling farther and farther behind. As they knew it would. It had but one purpose: to terrify. And it worked. It always does. Time and again beginning with AIDS, both agencies have grossly exaggerated disease outbreaks. That includes Ebola twice before, SARS, avian flu, swine flu and Mideast Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). I debunked most of those at the time, but the health agencies know that nothing they ever pipe will be so outrageous that the mainstream media won’t dance to their tune. Meanwhile, endemic diseases that don’t make headlines, like tuberculosis, malaria, and infectious childhood diarrhea, each kill more people every two days than have died of Ebola in 28 years. Sadly, the CDC and WHO have spent decades crying about monsters in the closet, distracting us from the very real ones in our midst. |
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It sure takes your eye off the rest of what is going on in this country.
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I wonder if the Tory govt send more money for Ebola aid than they do for the hungry in Africa.
After all, rich people could die from Ebola if it got over here, but they certainly won't starve. |
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I think I write for Forbes..
Brendan keeping the fred ticking.. |
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Cretinous analysis from Forbes.
A disease spreads, more and more people are affected, money and resources are deployed to counter it, the effects are then contained, so the money and resources must have been wasted, right? The same thinking which still maintains that, because we saw no ill effects from the millennium bug, then the time and money spent neutralizing it must have been wasted. |
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can't be worse than man flu Shirley ....
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Any updates Brendan?
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