Festival Fancies

To me Kargese only stays 2.5 miles in a horsebox so can’t even consider for Mares. July Flower won a flat race at Leopardstown and didn’t look likely winner till last 200 yards. Golden Ace looks a 2 miler and Dysart looks out of sorts.

Although I’m all over BDA to win and she will go Mares unless Cons Hill disappoints next Saturday there is huge value EW.

Kala Conti was close 2nd to July flower and is 25/1. She is good value perhaps.

thanks hibore , the arkle many will be thinking its a 2 horserace at this stage sir geno and maljborogh both unbeaten over fences and 1st and 2nd in the betting ,sir geno could be a superstar and maljboro also looks very good ,if you have the bigger prices sir geno well done but at odds on I can pass .both have just the 1 chase run behind them at this stage ,that could change in the coming weeks with the trials .whatever Ieu de sud is a double figga price 14s books and around 20/1 on here .has plenty of hurdles exp in big fields was a good 2nd in the Betfair and county hurdles and is 3 from 3 over fences  jumping well in the main .yes sir geno looked very smart and has a bit of the wow factor but ballyburn might be a  much better hurdler than chaser and tho he m,ay well win the arkle he is too short imo.

I think the backers of Sir Gino (Arkle) hope Constitution Hill will stand his ground. Otherwise a reroute to Champion Hurdle is more likely too.

Anyone with a few quid on would not want to read that

Surely if C Hill does not run, then BDA would run in the C Hurdle, leaving the Mares H, a very open race.

As a SG backer for the CH I wouldn't expect him to run in the CH even if the fav didn't, think the dye has been cast now, the owner might even have Amzadam for it anyhow, I reckon both the mares will run in the CH and think there's more chance of that happening than one running, for one to run and the other to scurry away to the mares will just look cowardly.

Imagine on the day if one ran in the CH and performed well and then 40 minutes later the other goes off 1/2 or whatever for the mares, I don't think the feel of that would be positive and reckon connections would anticipate that.

I'm sure that if either Mullins or Elliot think they can bag a cheap festival Grade 1, especially for a mare, they'll take it.

If State Man turns up at the Dublin Festival, and all the signals are that this is the plan, and he shows that that he's back to something like his best, then I would  guarantee that Lossiemouth will go Mares Hurdle again.

Betting suggests Lossie will skip Sat. 1/5 CH and 5/2 Lossie. Only way I see BDA run in Champion is if Cons Hill doesn’t win Sat or whoever turns up or injury takes him out.
Lossie has won Triumph and Mares so if Ricci is man of his word Lossie will go Champion as why just win another Mares ?
BDA is different in that she hasn’t won at Cheltenham. If she had won Mares Novice I think she would go Champion Hurdle 99%.

That is the biggest reason she will go Mares and take easier route rather than honourable 2nd or 3rd perhaps in CH. I personally think she wins either if puts up Leopardstown performance. But why even ask question when you can duck Cons Hill and win Grade 1. Can you really see BDA connections clapping in 140 rated rag in Mares Grade 1 ?? Allow that to happen….never.

I’m on both BDA to win Mares and CH at huge prices so not really pocket talking. It’s O Leary and he prefers to do his own thing I’m just putting my take on the situation.

When I said Ricci “ man of his word” he’s told me in person and in Sun Chelt preview that Lossie is 100% Champion this year.

I would not listen to Ricci - Mullins makes these decisions. She will be left in both at the 5 day entry stage and Mullins will leave it to last minute as always but if State Man is back to himself then theres not a snowballs hope of them taking each other on when she has the mares hurdle option.

Champion Hurdle might be easier option ? Cons Hill would need to improve 12lbs at least to match BDA last performance.
Saturday will confirm lots of things.

I think people are gettimg carried away with BDA performance at Christmas. State Man and Mythical City didn't show up at all. Winter Fog would be lapped in a Champion Hurdle so very hard to say how good it was but would think Constitution Hill's Kempton run would have been just as good a performance, and I'd have far more confidence in him repeating or even improving on that than I would of BDA repeating it.

It was the 3rd rated Mares hurdle performance of all time. If there was no other runners in that race she ran first mile in approx 33mph. She then kept going the final mile at 29mph. She was just outside course record (fastest run in last 20 years). Timeform rate her performance that day miles clear of Cons Hill performance at Kempton.

It’s funny how multiple 145+ horses at Leopardstown are all rubbish when they are all rated higher than Burdett Road who would have been 4-5 lengths behind Cons Hill without huge mistake at last.

I still think Cons Hil will improve but obviously needs to significantly. People who think BDA isn’t a strong contender using State Man need to review that performance.

Lossiemouth performances haven’t made the top 20 Timeform by the way.

It's interesting that after a horse puts up a monster performance it often under performs next time (even the likes of Frankel & Kauto Star) - those huge runs can take a great deal out of a horse, even if they look easy at the time. BDA also managed to get herself beat at the Festival last year. It's not a given she will run to anything like the level of her Leopardstown form at Cheltenham this year.

Totally agree. Gold Cups have bottomed out many horses as well. Saturday will be interesting and hope Con Hill bolts in.
Regarding Mares Novice the facts confirm it was run at a crawl and she isn’t a push button accelerator. If race had been run with pacemaker or she went from the front even Jeremy Scott says they were lucky how the race panned out. It as 24 sec slow.

I just think it’s unfair to down grade performances like BDA did because one horse performed poorly. If Cons Hill wins by 30 lengths on Saturday from 150 rated horse are they going to say he’s not that good because the 2nd horse underperformed. Obviously no.

True enough - we see what we want to see. Far too many people have a fixed view of a horse in their mind and assess a race around that, rather than what actually happened. I thought that the assessment of CH at Christmas was a vintage example of that.

I think if Constitution Hill is an absentee Sir Gino will take his place; Lossiemouth and BDA will be Champion Hurdle bound too; State Man could be retired if bombing badly in his next run. The Mares' is an inconsequential race even for Elliot.

If Galopin is an absentee Fact To File will be a definite in the Gold Cup too. Otherwise the latter would more likely be Ryanair bound, I think.

At the risk of going over old ground with ftv, the acceptance of just how much State Man under-performed is questionable as is believing his lofty rating to be accurate, a rating he's reached by winning a host of grade 1's that are grade 1's in name only, run against horses not worthy of the title. These races were pretty much all run at crawls, against BDA he was faced with a new experience and we saw a different horse.

Pointing to Winter Fog beating him as evidence of him under-performing is questionable, if Townend set out to come second he would have, as it was he had to get after the front two and that finished him off.

Horses have fallen flat after a monster performance in the past but what we know now is that BDA is capable of a monster performance in the first place, a replica of which would win the CH IMO.

Why also would Mullins want to be reliant on SM in the CH anyhow, we know he's not good enough against CH and if CH is not as good these days we have also seen that SM isn't either, remember, BDA had already beaten SM before the demolition job, in a race that was not run at anything like the pace of the last time and he still never had the boot to get past her.

The one true currency for measuring the worth of the best racehorses is in how they perform at Grade 1 level

There are just 7 open grade 1 2 mile hurdles run every year between Ireland and Uk and seeing as the Morgian/ Fighting Fifth are usually run the same weekend, as are the 2 Christmas Hurdles, that leaves 5 possible grade 1s per season for the best horses. I'm not sure which of these are grade 1s "in name only" but maybe Duffy can enlighten us
on this but it takes a proper horse, with a particular constitution, to complete the grand slam, which State Man did last year and but for Cons Hill at Cheltenham, would have done it back to back. The only other I can recall achieving a grand slam was Hurricane Fly.

So yes, State Man has absolutely earned his 169 rating and Duffy's belief that this is at least 10 pounds too high is laughable, as is the idea that he gave his true running last time out

sir geno out for the season ... highlights once again the perils of backing short prices ante post .

the gold cup and obviously galopin des champs sets the standard I cant add to anything we have seen his chance is there for all to see but too short for me to play . never be afraid of one horse and something has to be placed at least and grangeclare west ran very well behind gallopin d s  in the Irish gold cup travelled  and jumped well and stayed on strongly into 2nd and the demands of the gold cup could suit  lightly raced and some usefull form in the book from last season  ,around 16/1 nrnb looks fair imo.

Though my main bet is in the Ryanair , I have a silly £500-2 Jungle Boogie in the Gold cup purely because ....Its entered ...No horse was going better to the top of the hill ...Its mistake might have knocked the stuffing out of it given that its preparation races were after 700 odd days abscence . On ground any firmer than last year and a great prep they may like to roll the dice .

was well backed in the gold cup iirc ,good luck paulo

the supreme and  kopek  de Borges was impressive last time and could be a world beater but it looks potentially  a very good renewal and a case can be made for a fair few , at the prices henry de broms work ahead appeals ,just the 3 runs 2 wins and a seasonal debut 3rd .  his last run looks very good andplenty have won since including William munney  impressively by 7 lengths should improve and the yard showing signs of a revival and won this last year with Slade steel .around 10/1 ew nrnb looks fair imo.

plenty in behind have won since I including William munney who was 7 lengths behind work ahead in 2nd that day ^^^