Festival Fancies

To me Kargese only stays 2.5 miles in a horsebox so can’t even consider for Mares. July Flower won a flat race at Leopardstown and didn’t look likely winner till last 200 yards. Golden Ace looks a 2 miler and Dysart looks out of sorts.

Although I’m all over BDA to win and she will go Mares unless Cons Hill disappoints next Saturday there is huge value EW.

Kala Conti was close 2nd to July flower and is 25/1. She is good value perhaps.

I think the backers of Sir Gino (Arkle) hope Constitution Hill will stand his ground. Otherwise a reroute to Champion Hurdle is more likely too.

Surely if C Hill does not run, then BDA would run in the C Hurdle, leaving the Mares H, a very open race.

I'm sure that if either Mullins or Elliot think they can bag a cheap festival Grade 1, especially for a mare, they'll take it.

Betting suggests Lossie will skip Sat. 1/5 CH and 5/2 Lossie. Only way I see BDA run in Champion is if Cons Hill doesn’t win Sat or whoever turns up or injury takes him out.
Lossie has won Triumph and Mares so if Ricci is man of his word Lossie will go Champion as why just win another Mares ?
BDA is different in that she hasn’t won at Cheltenham. If she had won Mares Novice I think she would go Champion Hurdle 99%.

That is the biggest reason she will go Mares and take easier route rather than honourable 2nd or 3rd perhaps in CH. I personally think she wins either if puts up Leopardstown performance. But why even ask question when you can duck Cons Hill and win Grade 1. Can you really see BDA connections clapping in 140 rated rag in Mares Grade 1 ?? Allow that to happen….never.

I’m on both BDA to win Mares and CH at huge prices so not really pocket talking. It’s O Leary and he prefers to do his own thing I’m just putting my take on the situation.

I would not listen to Ricci - Mullins makes these decisions. She will be left in both at the 5 day entry stage and Mullins will leave it to last minute as always but if State Man is back to himself then theres not a snowballs hope of them taking each other on when she has the mares hurdle option.

I think people are gettimg carried away with BDA performance at Christmas. State Man and Mythical City didn't show up at all. Winter Fog would be lapped in a Champion Hurdle so very hard to say how good it was but would think Constitution Hill's Kempton run would have been just as good a performance, and I'd have far more confidence in him repeating or even improving on that than I would of BDA repeating it.

It's interesting that after a horse puts up a monster performance it often under performs next time (even the likes of Frankel & Kauto Star) - those huge runs can take a great deal out of a horse, even if they look easy at the time. BDA also managed to get herself beat at the Festival last year. It's not a given she will run to anything like the level of her Leopardstown form at Cheltenham this year.

True enough - we see what we want to see. Far too many people have a fixed view of a horse in their mind and assess a race around that, rather than what actually happened. I thought that the assessment of CH at Christmas was a vintage example of that.

At the risk of going over old ground with ftv, the acceptance of just how much State Man under-performed is questionable as is believing his lofty rating to be accurate, a rating he's reached by winning a host of grade 1's that are grade 1's in name only, run against horses not worthy of the title. These races were pretty much all run at crawls, against BDA he was faced with a new experience and we saw a different horse.

Pointing to Winter Fog beating him as evidence of him under-performing is questionable, if Townend set out to come second he would have, as it was he had to get after the front two and that finished him off.

Horses have fallen flat after a monster performance in the past but what we know now is that BDA is capable of a monster performance in the first place, a replica of which would win the CH IMO.

Why also would Mullins want to be reliant on SM in the CH anyhow, we know he's not good enough against CH and if CH is not as good these days we have also seen that SM isn't either, remember, BDA had already beaten SM before the demolition job, in a race that was not run at anything like the pace of the last time and he still never had the boot to get past her.

sir geno out for the season ... highlights once again the perils of backing short prices ante post .

Though my main bet is in the Ryanair , I have a silly £500-2 Jungle Boogie in the Gold cup purely because ....Its entered ...No horse was going better to the top of the hill ...Its mistake might have knocked the stuffing out of it given that its preparation races were after 700 odd days abscence . On ground any firmer than last year and a great prep they may like to roll the dice .

the supreme and  kopek  de Borges was impressive last time and could be a world beater but it looks potentially  a very good renewal and a case can be made for a fair few , at the prices henry de broms work ahead appeals ,just the 3 runs 2 wins and a seasonal debut 3rd .  his last run looks very good andplenty have won since including William munney  impressively by 7 lengths should improve and the yard showing signs of a revival and won this last year with Slade steel .around 10/1 ew nrnb looks fair imo.