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Best wishes uncle. I find it impossible to consider any 2024 bets until it is clear where Constitution Hill and Marine National go. I backed MN for the CH soon after the 2023 Festival but luckily bailed out again when the possibility of chasing surfaced. I rate them the best 2 NH horses in training. If they both go the Arkle route it will be exciting but somehow I think one or the other will end up in the CH.
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Well as I expected Constitution Hill remains over hurdles. Mullins says that Impaire Et Passé will also stay hurdling so maybe it might be more interesting than last year, though how does he keep him and Stateman apart.
I just hope that run at Punchestown hasn’t left its mark on IEP. Not sure if they have definitively said what Marine Nationale is doing? Started a six month course (12 sessions) of chemotherapy the Friday before last and have another session this Friday - bloody horrible, feel totally worn out and aching all over, and don’t get me started on my bowel movements. ![]() |
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Uncle feel for you in this horrible time you are going through i no this is easy thing to say but try to stay positive i did will give you a winner to look forward to at next years festival even though i very rarely tip one up mainly always a layer at Cheltenham Mr Policeman in the Arkle, when it wins and you are feeling better you can send me a bottle of Bollinger.
Good luck with your wealth but more important your health. Ronnie. |
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Hope you’re keeping well Uncle.
Could be an interesting 2 days at Cheltenham. Plenty of runners from Ireland with Flooring Porter the most high profile…could he be a contender in the RSA or is this just an afterthought. Lots of other interesting races to get stuck into. I wonder if Cheltenham have spent any money on the facilities this year. Hopefully the Insurance bar has had a lick of paint and new carpet. Anyway, look forward to discussing the festival over the next 5 months ![]() Good luck anyone going or having a bet this weekend. |
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Well the jumps season really got into gear over the last week or so with lots of proven and potential stats reappearing.
Bravemansgame got beaten but for me did no great harm to his KG prospects. With Nicky making very bullish noises about Shiskin and Allaho showing he is alive and well I was hoping the bookies might push BMG out to 3/1 which would be maximum e/w bet materials but he is still only 2/1 so no bet. Some talk about him still going for the Betfair Chase but that would be a negative for me. Gerri Colombe made a winning return when just outstaying Envoi Allen at Down Royal. He looks an out and out stayer, very much Denman to Galopin Des Champs Kauto Star. I know Ruby Walsh has expressed fears that GDC may be under par this year after such a hard race at Cheltenham and Punchestown so Gerri is definitely the most likely beneficiary if that is the case. Corbett Cross was very disappointing on his chase debut but it’s early days and I ‘d give him another chance, Plenty of impressive novice hurdlers - maybe Down Memory Lane being the one to note. |
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I have always liked Gerri Colombe and you can not knock his attitude.
But a neck defeat of Envoi Allen, a 7 length victory over Complete Unknown and a defeat at the hands of The Real Whacker does not add up to a 5/1 second favourite for a Gold Cup. He may prove to be a genuine contender, but not yet. |
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He had to battle as well,
first day back after seven months and had to go to battle prefer Bravemansgame ride , a little less severe |
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And with only one more run at Christmas before the festival he surely would have been plenty fit enough on Saturday. He's the bright new thing though and there is always a deal of more attention to those horses, throw in the subsequent potential kinks in the armour of the first two home in last years GC and it further drives the narrative.
Someone said earlier that he's more Denman to GDC's Kauto, well from what we've seen so far he's more Galvin/Santini rather than Denman, his price is very short. |
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Of the 20 markets currently price up Mullins has 10 favourites and one joint fav!
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I do not think the Gerri Colombe in the Brown Windsor would be good enough to beat Bravemansgame let alone Galopin Des Champ but the longer trip will certainly help. He'd be lacking tactical speed coming off the final bend, but the hill will suit. Nevertheless, 5/1 now is pretty short already.
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impossible123 - please don’t post your inane ramblings on my thread.
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Another decent weekend of racing on both sides of the Irish Sea though Cheltenham was fairly underwhelming imo.
Stage Star was impressive, and in hindsight was a big price, but the race, bar the last fence, panned out perfectly for him. He beat the same horse he did in the Turners so not sure it told us anything new, and a top form Allaho would surely leave him for dust. In similar fashion Jonbon won impressively and at least they rode him aggressively which I think is the only way he can win a Queen Mother. I can forgive him one poor run and he never looked happy in last years, so with it effectively being a two horse race the 11/4 is fair enough. Iberico Lord won the Greatwood for the same connections and will presumably be laid out for the County Hurdle where the.New Course should suit his run style. Over at Naas it was good to see Bob Olinger show some of his old class All the talk is about going for the Stayers but given his cruising speed I’d rather see him aimed at the Champion though there is next to no chance of that. Facile Vega won well enough on his chase debut but Inthepocket was purely ridden to finish second and with several potential rivals for the Turners dropping out injured (Good Land and Iroko) I am very pleased with my antepist position. ![]() One other horse I will mention is Slade Steel who won at Naas the previous Sunday. Looks like a step in trip will suit so the Ballymore looks the right target (same connections as Bob Olinger who won it). Have had a speculative punt at 75 on here. |
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But how close to top form will Allaho be? It will be 3 years since his peak performance.
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That’s the great unknown and means I couldn’t back him - in fact he’s a horse I’ve never backed iirc. Like a lot of the great horses (Frankel, Kauto etc) they are never my sort of price.
But having watched back last years race Envoi Allen bolted in despite making serious mistakes at 4 out and 3 out, and was a bit untidybtwo out but was still on the bridle when pinging the last. He ran a blinder at Down Royal when just outstayed by GC and I was amazed to see he was as big at 14/1 so have played on him. |
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Had a little 85s Dont Tell Sue for the AB , post the run of Minella Missile and todays Yes Day run didnt do any harm either . Not normally a Nichols race but hopefully Stay Away Fay has given him a taste .
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I'll certainly be keeping an eye on the Envoi Allen Ryanair price over the next few months. Barring injury, a surefire runner and won well last year despite arguably softer than ideal (and softer than usual) ground. I could see him running at least one disappointing race between now and the Festival but the stable is very good at getting them right in March.
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'GoBallistic', I tend to agree. Envoi Allen ran a very good race last time. He's a great chance of winning the Ryanair again; 14/1 ain't a bad price either. On the other hand Allaho will need to prove himself to be back to his old self to be 5/1 fav; a lot shorter if not regressed.
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Firefox was a good long-range shout, Uncle. It'll be interesting to see where he heads.
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Thanks Pete - certainly happy with my speculative antepost flutter.
![]() Also Slade Steel just had his form boosted on the Royal Bond. ![]() Corbett Cross won a deep novice chase on Saturday but still hard to know where he’ll be aimed. Personally the more I look at him I think the Brown Advisory over 3m on the Old Course is the right race but who knows? As I suggested running Bravemansgame in the Betfair looked the wrong decision - pretty sure this was all about Nichols trying to be Champion trainer and he might have scuppered his KG chances in the process. |
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Another good weekend of racing though having backed Mahler Mission ante post it was also a bit frustrating.
![]() In terms of Grade 1 action the Hattons Grace was by far the most interesting. Teahupoo repeating last years win against the previously unbeaten Impair Et Passe. Elliot say Teahupoo won't run again until the Stayers which looks an excellent decision and I took some 5/1 shortly after the race. Looks a weak division and although he was beaten favourite last year in really attritional conditions hopefully he's a stronger horse this time around. Definitely the class act unless Thelma is the next Barracuda. Impaire Et Passe lost little in defeat and a stronger run two miles in a bigger field should suit him - whether he can beat State Man let alone Constitution Hill is another matter. The Drinmore Novice chase was won by last years Irish National winner in a quirk of the race planning system and Mullins suggest he may now be aimed at the big Grade 1 open races over 3m though I doubt he's up to that class. Letsbeclearabout was disappointing. The Royal Bond looked to be a little underwhelming beforehand and it will be disappointing if there aren't several better types for the Supreme. At Newbury on Friday Hermes Allen put up an impressive chasing debut and may well be the best of the British, not that did him much good against the Irish last year!! ![]() |
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I agree with the break for Teahupoo.
His record when fresh is very good. He is very ground dependent though. I'm not sure how soft the ground really was on the Thursday of Cheltenham last season. The times of the races do not back up the official going description. It is a weak division as usual. I have a small bet on the French gelding at 19/1. But unsure how good he really is. |
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Three Card Brag should surely be favourite for the NH Chase now, that horse has been gagging for a proper trip since it saw a hurdle!
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Well I've just had my first speculative bet for next years festival and it's on what I think is a very big price at 40/ for Letsbeclearaboutit for the NH Chase, as Uncle says he was disappointing and on the face of it he was as he started favourite and trailed in 5 lengths adrift of the front two.
But against better opposition over that trip he just wasn't quick enough late on, he still jumped immaculately gaining ground at almost every fence and for me has still been one of the best two novice chasers in terms of jumping that we've seen so far this season but he just plugs on at the end, particularly over that trip. In the AB last year he jumped and travelled beautifully turning in but was one paced late on but plugged on. His asset is his jumping and his ability to travel, the extended trip and 23 fences could see him bowling along gaining ground getting his rivals in trouble throughout in the NH Chase, his preference for soft ground sees a race on the first day ideal too. |
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Looked a non stayer to me on Sunday.
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Letsbeclearaboutit jumped great at the weekend.
Would be better suited to a drop in trip, I would have thought. |
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Yeah maybe, his jumping will get many in trouble, to a point, however I think there would be a limit against even quicker horses over shorter again. He's a 3 mile heavy ground winner and yes it's all relative, I just think that he might just be able to keep going and going in that rhythm and over the extended trip and with that jumping he might be able to beat them off one by one.
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Pleasing hurdle debut from Chapeau Du Soleil at Clonmel.
So far so good for most of my long range picks. ![]() |
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if only cheltenham was right handed
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^But he hung badly left on his bumper debut so not sure I have any reason to think going left handed will be a negative.
Nice performance from Slade Steel today. ![]() |
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El Fabiolo workmanlike and not really pressed but only 4 secs quicker than the mares novice chase.
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Can't really make the leaders go any quicker so you're argument about time makes no sense.
The trainer will be happy with that on 1st run back |
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Hate after timing…but I did back Gaelic Warrior at a decent price and laid him on here,,,currently 5/2 in a few firms 3,45 on purple and cash going thru as we type under 3 on here,,,Arbors out there
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That’s for the Turners
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Oh dear Facile Vega! Could Gaelic Warrior be rerouted for The Arkle? The former finished last despite odds-on in a 4-runner race today at Leopardstown.
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^ GET OFF OF MY THREAD
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A thrilling King George and great to see the little guy win. Sadly I was on Shiskin but that's racing.
Constitution Hill did what he always does but hopefully he can bet tested more by the Mullins pair later on. The French Novice chaser was ultra impressive but not sure he'll be coming to Cheltenham. Some good racing in Ireland and it was the novice and juvenile hurdlers that were of most interest to me. Having said the Royal Bond might not have been that good the Elliot horses that filled the front two places both ran ran really well. Sadly the winner of the Royal Bond Farren Glory fell when cruising in what used to be the Tolworth and King of Kingsfield destroyed the highly touted Mirazur West at Leopardstown. The Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown saw Kala Conti reverse Fairyhouse form with Nurburgring on 6lb better terms, the pair split by a Kargese,a Mullins French recruit making it's debut. The horse that I took out of the race though was back in 4th, namely Batman Girac. A Mullins trained horse in the green Munir silks he had been a warm favourite for the aforementioned Fairyhouse race on his debut but hung badly left all the way and was pulled up. Here he was settled out the back and was still last jumping two out before making rapid headway up the inside. He fluffed the last where it was a bit crowded but then picked up strongly once reorganised and switched round the tiring horses. He may be more of a Fred Winter type but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran really well back in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Festival and so had a small dabble at 100/1 for the Triumph. ![]() At Limerick another Mullins newcomer Bunting was impressive in the juvenile hurdle and is now 10/1 2nd fav. Burdett Road the fav runs today at Chepstow and I can see him getting beat in what could be atrocious going. In the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle over nearly 3m the Mullins trained Loughglynn was a good winner despite fluffing the last. He beat / outstayed Firefox in a bumper (see pg1) and he had two solid yardsticks of Elliots behind yesterday and the Albert Bartlett looks the obvious race for him. 16/1 is fair enough. |
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One thing that hasn't been talked about in all the fuss about the French horse was what a good race Hermes Allen ran too, he wasn't too far off the pace set by the French horse the whole way and after making a bad mistake looked like he might capitulate and might be forgiven for doing so after trying to chase that pace throughout but rallied really well after and finished off quite strong, he looks a right stayer and that a stiffer track will suit him better, with no IEF to contend with 20/1 for the RSA seems very fair.
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I've got to agree Duffy. It reminded me a little of Kauto Star chasing Denman in the Gold Cup - Hermes was faced with an impossible task on the day, but he stuck at it courageously.
The thing is though, surely Nicholls will want to split up Hermes Allen and Stay Away Fay, SAF is the stronger stayer, and he is much too good to run in the NH Chase. So Hermes is likely to end up in the Turners almost by default. It's also possible that such a hard race will leave its mark on Hermes. |
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Yeah both Nicholl's horses does throw a spanner in the works but I would not like Hermes dropping back in trip for fear it turned out to be anything other than a strongly run race, last years Ballymore was a crawl and Hermes got hopelessly outpaced when they quickened, he looks an out and out stayer,also with a view to picking between the two, they've both got form with Giovinco who put up a very good display against Stay Away Fay but was absolutely broken yesterday. I would like SAF going up rather than Hermes dropping back.
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Nicholls has already said SAF won't run in the NH chase I believe, but plans change. I agree with you that Hermes is a 3-miler.
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