Cheltenham Festival
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Another festival over and some great racing and stories - and thankfully no whip debacle or, afaik, any dead horses.
The three big races were all won by the long time ante post favourites and it's hard to see them getting beat next year either- around 20/1 the treble seems a fair bet.
Of course there is still the question of whether Constitution Hill stays over hurdles or goes chasing - and that will have a huge impact on what other horses may do.
He is clearly exceptional but given his speed at 2m it's surely unlikely he'll be as effective at 3m2f so Gold Cup glory is unlikely as much as that is the dream for Michael Buckley.
As such if he were mine I'd rather try and win three or more CH with him.
Novice hurdles review
Marine Nationale and Impaire Et Passe were both superb winners but not sure they can beat Constitution Hill over 2m so until we know the state of play hard to get involved.
Both will obviously be very promising chasers but the bookies are giving nothing away at 5/1 for the Arkle.
The Albert Bartlett looked very strong on paper but the result was a bit of a shock. Of course Corbetts Cross went off hot favourite and he tanked through the race like easily the best horse (maybe running him over 2m before the Festival was a mistake?) - however he was definitely beaten to my eyes when ducking out at the last. If he can learn to settle he may yet be a Gold Cup horse but next season you would think the Turners would be his race rather than the Brown Advisory - 16/1 looks fair?
One interesting point to make, and I read this somewhere, is that the Albert Bartlett is nearly always won by horses that have previously won a 3m point - the front two yesterday both met that criteria.
Novice Chases review
The novice chases weren't very exciting.
El Fabiolo was a comfortable winner of the Arkle but I'm not sure it was that strong a race and the form of his win at the Dublin festival also looks less impressive by the day. Like wise Jonbons form is not very strong.
He's the biggest threat to Energumene but I'm amazed he's shorter in the betting. The going could be the deciding factor - proper soft and give me Energumene any day.
Ferny Hollow may yet rise like Lazarus and throw his hat into the ring but I would bet on it.
In the Brown Advisory over 3m The Real Whacker put up a great front running display to hold off Gerri Colombe but if the race had been run an hour later when it was raining it would likely have been different.
Could see TRW going well in the Ryanair but nobody is quoting him.
Gerri Colombe will presumably be aimed at the Gold Cup but hard to see him troubling the principals unless it's a mudbath.
The Turners didn't take much winning and a canny ride on Stage Star saw him prevail but don't see it having any great impact on next years meeting.
Bumper
Great to see a small yard and jockey win the bumper with a hugely promising horse in A Dream To Share. Given his win at the DRF under a penalty it was very surprising he wasn't a hot favourite. Presumably the little known trainer and amateur jockey put people, off along with the usual Mullins bumper mania. Same sort of thing happened a few years ago with Dunguib who should have been about 6/4 but won easily at 9/2.
He's 8/1 for the Supreme which is twice the price Facile Vega was after last years festival also that seems fair. He's flat bred so no reason to think he'll go for the Ballymore.
The three big races were all won by the long time ante post favourites and it's hard to see them getting beat next year either- around 20/1 the treble seems a fair bet.
Of course there is still the question of whether Constitution Hill stays over hurdles or goes chasing - and that will have a huge impact on what other horses may do.
He is clearly exceptional but given his speed at 2m it's surely unlikely he'll be as effective at 3m2f so Gold Cup glory is unlikely as much as that is the dream for Michael Buckley.
As such if he were mine I'd rather try and win three or more CH with him.
Novice hurdles review
Marine Nationale and Impaire Et Passe were both superb winners but not sure they can beat Constitution Hill over 2m so until we know the state of play hard to get involved.
Both will obviously be very promising chasers but the bookies are giving nothing away at 5/1 for the Arkle.
The Albert Bartlett looked very strong on paper but the result was a bit of a shock. Of course Corbetts Cross went off hot favourite and he tanked through the race like easily the best horse (maybe running him over 2m before the Festival was a mistake?) - however he was definitely beaten to my eyes when ducking out at the last. If he can learn to settle he may yet be a Gold Cup horse but next season you would think the Turners would be his race rather than the Brown Advisory - 16/1 looks fair?
One interesting point to make, and I read this somewhere, is that the Albert Bartlett is nearly always won by horses that have previously won a 3m point - the front two yesterday both met that criteria.
Novice Chases review
The novice chases weren't very exciting.
El Fabiolo was a comfortable winner of the Arkle but I'm not sure it was that strong a race and the form of his win at the Dublin festival also looks less impressive by the day. Like wise Jonbons form is not very strong.
He's the biggest threat to Energumene but I'm amazed he's shorter in the betting. The going could be the deciding factor - proper soft and give me Energumene any day.
Ferny Hollow may yet rise like Lazarus and throw his hat into the ring but I would bet on it.
In the Brown Advisory over 3m The Real Whacker put up a great front running display to hold off Gerri Colombe but if the race had been run an hour later when it was raining it would likely have been different.
Could see TRW going well in the Ryanair but nobody is quoting him.
Gerri Colombe will presumably be aimed at the Gold Cup but hard to see him troubling the principals unless it's a mudbath.
The Turners didn't take much winning and a canny ride on Stage Star saw him prevail but don't see it having any great impact on next years meeting.
Bumper
Great to see a small yard and jockey win the bumper with a hugely promising horse in A Dream To Share. Given his win at the DRF under a penalty it was very surprising he wasn't a hot favourite. Presumably the little known trainer and amateur jockey put people, off along with the usual Mullins bumper mania. Same sort of thing happened a few years ago with Dunguib who should have been about 6/4 but won easily at 9/2.
He's 8/1 for the Supreme which is twice the price Facile Vega was after last years festival also that seems fair. He's flat bred so no reason to think he'll go for the Ballymore.
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One other horse I’ll mention is Inthepocket who ran well when 4th in the Supreme.
He was being niggled most of the way but kept finding and as a 3m point winner he is clearly crying out for further and assuming he goes over fences next year the 25/1 for the Turners looks big. |
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great stuff mate
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Yes very enjoyable read uncle regarding inthepocket I was very very surprised he ran in the supreme novice that said 2 nd would have been the best place he could have hoped for in the ballymore/sun alliance.
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Enjoyable read, Uncle.
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Thanks guys.
Quick heads up. Just had a lumpy bet on Galopin Des Champ at 5/2 with Betvictor, best of 6/4 elsewhere. I would have doubled it up with Bravemansgame in the King George but they don’t have that race priced up. |
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Have just watched back the Bumper a couple of times and have put a couple of the Mullins horses in my notebook.
Firstly Lecky Watson who was 4th at 80/1. Still a maiden after 4 runs (though was disqualified on his 2nd outing) but he travelled really well on the outsider just in front of the two McManus horses who dominated the finish and then met interference at the furlong pole. Owned by a syndicate so may go a bit under the radar compared to the more obvious Ricci, McManus, Munir owners horses at Fairyhouse and/or Punchestown later this season. The other one is a bit more speculative but Chapeau De Soleil ran a bit better than his finishing position having been badly hampered just before the turn. He is owned by Rich Ricci and had a big reputation before his debut at Fairyhouse in early December where he was very intractable throughout and threw the race away by hanging. Patrick Mullins did an article on him in the Sporting Life a week or so later and was hopeful it was a one off and that he could still be a top notcher. He hadn't run since and still showed a tendency to hang left but hopefully with time he can iron that out. He was a 3m point winner and so may be an Albert Bartlett type next year - 33/1 currently. |
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Unbelievable uncle you would think a firm like that would have somebody capable of coming up with a price on the king George,you weren’t asking a price for the Wolverhampton maiden on Boxing Day.
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great stuff uncle,,,was lucky enuff to back gallard du mensil at 16/1 for nh chase,,nothing major this time last year,,,dipping my toe in again with a few punts,,anyone like Iam maximus for said race ,16/1 looks reasonable
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Cheers Cobra - well done with GDM last year.
I can't say I pay any attention to the National Hunt Chase (I'd be happy if they got rid of it along with the Kim Muir tbh). Given it seems to be a Mullins / Elliot benefit you have picked a realistic candidate and I see it has been cut by most firms on oddschecker - was it one of the 16/1 shots that Tom Segal or Paul Kealy put up in the Racing Post? Had a quick look at the betting and one that I thought might be interesting was Three Card Brag at 20/1 - seems to stay forever but lack the class for the novice Grade 1's so could be aimed here by Elliot? |
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The national hunt chase wasn’t a pretty sight
I know we’ve been down the route of which races you wouldn’t miss ,mine would be the turners but I must admit I don’t think I would miss the national hunt chase,it seems it’s their for historical reasons. |
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Hendo is already working for bookies. He's propagating constitution Hill could go chasing post the horse's run at Aintree next month.
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I'm no fan of Hendo, but how is that "working for bookies"? It's just repeating what the owner has said he wants (on ITV, so hardly clandetine).
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Owner said he might give it a go taking on Honeysuckle post his Supreme annihilation victory. Hendo did not rebut tor dismiss that comment either. the rest is history.
I hope Constitution Hill goes over hurdle. But, only seeing is believing - the rest is waffle (from Hendo). |
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the king of waffle turns up castigating elsewhere
you sir are the biggest bullsh1tter on here Reportimpossible123 • March 19, 2022 5:09 PM GMT I do understand. Jon Bon has the best chance but could be RSA or Stayers bound, I reckon JONBON WAS SECOND IN THE ARKLE CHASE 2023 Turners (jlt) thread impossible123 • March 19, 2022 2:52 PM GMT Sir Gerhard, Fil Dor and Pied Piper next season with possibly nothing from Hendo and Nicholls again. Chickens ! the 2023 TURNERS WAS WON BY PAUL NICHOLS TRAINED STAGE STAR , SIR GERGARD, FIL DOR AND PIED PIPER WERE NOT EVEN IN THE RACE |
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Constant waffle
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I am maximums out to 20 fo no chase on here ? Campaigned for aintree and skip cheltenham ? Was impressive today
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No longer eligible for the NH chase after winning today. Should be taken out of the market.
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Ouch …backed it today but done my cash ap….thx strontium
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Although very much 'after the Lord Mayor's Show' there were some interesting performance at Aintree.
Famous Clermont hacked up in the Hunter chase having patently failed to stay at Cheltenham, although still looking like the classiest horse, and would be fascinating if he joined a top trainer to be aimed at some big handicaps or graded races, maybe even there King George? Teeton Mill did something similar 20 odd years ago. Shiskin showed guts and class to win the Bowl and will presumably be aimed at the King George initially. 5/1 on here with Bravemansgame at 5/2. Hard to see anything else being competitive so not a bad dutching opportunity. Constitution Hill won the Aintree Hurdle comfortably, though didn't wow me at all. and he didn't look to be crying out for any further so all this Gold Cup talk looks very premature. I notice Unibet are top price of 7/4 on him retaining the Champion Hurdle - Henderson has a tie up with them so what you read into that I don't know? Gerri Colombo and Inthepocket both won well on Friday - the rain coming at just the right time. Henry De Bromhead suggesting Inthepocket may stay over hurdles? Irish Point was pretty impressive in the Mersey Novice Hurdle and, as with Inthepocket, the form lines with Marine Nationale just get better and better. Obviously it would be fascinating if Marine Nationale and Impaire Et Passe clash at Punchestown though I expect they will be kept apart (assuming both run). It's so hard to have a bet with all the unknowns but given his flat pedigree I'd be sticking to hurdles with Marine Nationale even if Constitution Hill doesn't go chasing. |
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Marine National wont train on (Nap )
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I thought one aspect of a good few races at the festival itself was how steadily a number of the graded races were run at and unusually the Supreme was one of them. Stung by what happened previously it was a far more steady approach adopted on Facile Vega in the Supreme and it may well of cost him, he was beaten by the quicker horse come the end, he'd be worth a chance to reverse the form over a stiffer test at the trip, and if they do reoppose there'll probably be a price to be had such was the impression that Marine National left on the day.
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Most interesting reading and thoughtful analysis Uncle, thank you.
The Supreme this year puzzles me. The form really stacks up, and has already been franked several times. However, nine horses finished within 12 lengths of the winner, which generally indicates so-so form. They can't all be top class can they? It will be interesting to see how it pans out when they move into open company. I imagine many will be waiting to see which route Constitution Hill will take. |
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I think Facile Vega could be worth any chance at Puncheston next week. I think he was still feeling the effects of his race where he bombed out courtesy of his pilot.
Another could be Teahupoo: His pilot was out of sort when placed in the Stayer; Sire Du Berlais is the (enigmatic) nemesis - if he runs. |
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Sire Du Berlais is a remarkable horse. Oddly, he isn't even in the 2024 Stayers Hurdle market on Betfair.
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unclepuncle • April 16, 2023 7:18 AM BST
Shiskin showed guts and class to win the Bowl and will presumably be aimed at the King George initially. 5/1 on here with Bravemansgame at 5/2. Hard to see anything else being competitive so not a bad dutching opportunity. Hard to see anything else being competitive ? ........ So Willie and Henry got nothing then ? ( Wont mention Shark ) |
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The KG might be a problem for Shishkin if they can't get him to travel more kindly around Kempton.
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I thought that the Supreme winner and El Fabiolo were the only two novices that could threaten the established stars next season.
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Well the jumps season is now over and Punchestown threw up some interesting results.
The Gold Cup saw a big shock with Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame getting best by the handicapper Fastorslowtoo . GDC was being niggled a fair way out and while we would all like to see these top horses run as often as possible having another hard race after Cheltenham seems to be to the detriment of their longevity. I’d expect GDC to have just the one run before the next Gold Cup. Bravemansgame will take the same route he did this year and it woukd be nice if Fastorslow was aimed at the King George as well. Obviously Fastorslow was paying a compliment to Corach Rambler who is clearly now in the Gold Cup picture. The rest of the Grade One action was, as expected, a Mullins benefit. The most eyecatching to me was Gaelic Warrior who stepped up to 3m, which I wasn’t convinced about, and bolted up. With the Champion stayers hurdle race featuring a close finish between the usual suspects it looks ripe for a new kid on the block and for all GW prefers going right handed he could just be different class. I thought 8/1 was very generous. The other horse I’ll mention is Echoes In Rain. I had a good antepost bet on her for the Mares at Cheltenham but for whatever reason, track, trip, pace, she was disappointing. I’m very much of the opinion she is top class (possibly second only to Constitution Hill) and with Mullins having State Man for all the usual Irish hurdle races I’d love to see EIR come over for the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle - of course it won’t happen. She isn’t quoted anywhere fir the Champion Hurdle. |
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Uncle
As usual another excellent summary. |
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Corach not for carrying 12 stone alongside gold cup class like that , all to prove
Two up front took each other on and the out and out stayer plodded past picking up the pieces we have seen it loads of times before aint we uncle ? Willie saw a lot in Echoes and was very disappointed at Chelt but going on results CH well clear imvho Energumene is some horse, jumped awful on unsuitable ground, will take a while to get over that..... but gutted it out. Lossiemouth may be put out to grass now, and Willie has Vauban, Bialystock, Plus others , for the Galway Hurdle over two miles . Sharjah was 5 years old when he won it, wouldn't be surprised at all if he won it again with a youngster cheers uncle |
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Just been emailed regarding entry prices
Already £55 for Tatts  |
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rishone30 Apr 23 19:02Joined: 22 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 53,562 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Lossiemouth may be put out to grass now, and Willie has Vauban, Bialystock, Plus others , for the Galway Hurdle over two miles . Sharjah was 5 years old when he won it, wouldn't be surprised at all if he won it again with a youngster Galway Hurdle 1st Zarak The Brave (FR) 4, b g 11-5 (Simon Munir) (3:38.8 2.78 secs faster on today's going ) Rated 145 Zarak (FR) - Tempo Royale (FR)(Boris De Deauville (IRE)) Breeder - Mme Magalen Bryant SP 9/2 W P Mullins. P Townend ....Willies got more ammo than Zelenskyy |
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The 9/2 shot had to dig deep in the day four Festival feature after being put under severe pressure by Jesse Evans over the last but lived up to his name by holding firm to come home by a head and become the first four-year-old winner of the Galway Hurdle for 23 years.
It continued a luckless run in this race for Noel Meade’s runner-up, who was also second last year and finished fourth in 2021, and Mullins offered sympathy to his fellow handler in the aftermath. “I thought we were beaten,” he said. “I feel sorry for Noel Meade and connections of Jesse Evans. “I was sitting near Noel in the stand and I think that horse was second and third the last two years, I thought he was going to win it. “Paul [Townend] said when he gathered our fellow, he pulled it together towards the end, which shows he had that little bit left in the tank. “We’ve got to look at him as a Champion Hurdle contender. The Morgiana is there in Punchestown, and the Fishery Lane in Naas for four-year-olds only. “I’ll be aiming him for the Morgiana and we’ll see what happens.” |
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Been dealing with cancer since the start of the year and being virtually housebound I spend a lot of time surfing youtube and watching racing previews etc to while away the hours.
Don’t follow any in particular but they often throw up horses I wouldn’t otherwise be aware of. I don’t have RUK or ATR and so only really watch the ITV televised stuff and occassionally will watch back replays on the Sporting Life site if their is a midweek race of interest. As such I often miss plenty of potentially nice horses and looking at the markets for the novice races at the festival there are loads of horses I don’t recognise. A horse that was flagged up on one video was Firefox, trained by Gordon Elliot. I knew nothing about him but upon study he does look interesting. A hugely expensive store horse, a half brother to the same connections The Bosses Oscar, he somewhat strangely made his debut in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Navan in November rather than a bumper. He went off 15/8f and was given a very ‘eyecatching’ ride coming from miles back two out to be beaten only a few lengths in 4th. I do wonder if they were keen not to lose his novice status. He then went into bumpers at Naas and had a narrow defeat to a Mullins horse (who finished 9th in the Cheltenham bumper next time) when he looked the winner all the way until outbattled in the last furlong. He then hosed up on his next start in a Navan bumper. He then took in the bumper on the Fairyhouse Grand National card and beat the highly rated Mullins trained Ile Atlantique in a close finish. Looks a lovely prospect for 2 1/2 miles novice hurdles, with the Lawlors of Naas likely to be a Grade 1 target in early January. 33/1 for the Ballymore with the bookies but 150/1+ on here which was too big to resist.  |
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Sorry to hear that Uncle. Get well soon, mate.
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Sorry to hear that uncle always read your posts I had bowel cancer 9 years glad to say still here will say a prayer for you.
Ronnie. |
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Thanks Pete and Ronnie
Nine years with bowel cancer is good going Ronnie.  Still not entirely sure what I have. Originally diagnosed as Retro-Peritoneal Sarcoma back in March which is ghastly, but then a biopsy suggested it might be a lymphoma which would be much better. But to get a definitive diagnosis I have had two full surgical biopsies in the last month - first one was a disaster and waiting for results on second one.  |
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hang in there uncle best of luck
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Best wishes Uncle ,,,keep studying pal,,hopefully pays off in March
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