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Cheltenham Festival
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These 114 comments are related to the topic:
Cheltnham 2023
Cheltnham 2023
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Irish,
I'm on about the pace of the race through it rather than the finishing time and in both of Lossiemouth's wins the pace of the race through it has been slower than comparable races on the same card, all we've seen from her so far is that she has been the quickest horse in a pair of dawdles. I haven't run the first race alongside lossiemouth's but the other two I have and the pace through it was slower, the novice handicap, significantly so, run them side by side and you'll see and it's an interesting thing to do. It's not to say she wouldn't be equally effective through a stiff test but it's a fundamental question that she has yet to answer, but she is already priced up as if she is bomb proof. |
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duffy ,
sometimes they go quick at the end, slow at the start and sometimes they go same pace all the way through, sometimes they go quick at the start and slow at the end ....... So what ? you dont know if lossiemouth had a bit up her sleeve or is open to greater improvement before cheltenham , she may have the potential ...we dont know .....she is a three year old until the end of march, but only even 4 years old officially. you also dont know if the films you work from are slowed up or sped forward. you also cant measure exactly when a horse leaves the ground and jumps before another at a later date or time because the camera angle is not always going to be exactly the same. your analysis is full of holes, wheres your fraction times taken from ? the rational part of your brain suggests a scientific outcome is plausible when making comments about racehorses.... its simply not true. Ruby compares the films weekly and he does it to fill time and take the dosh , easy money compared to sitting on the back of a racehorse jumping fences at 35 miles an hour. Lease yourself a racehorse and look after it for a few hours a day for a month, it will be a lot cheaper than investing in what you believe to be logical scientific outcomes and applying them to horse races and racehorses. |
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El Fabiolo who would have beaten Jonbon over hurdles at Aintree bar the hampering imvho
has emerged as a serious contender in the Arkle market since the impressive pre christmas jaunt around Fairyhouse ....but Willie has several other entries and could end up with a good few in it . |
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irish,
sometimes they go quick at the end, slow at the start and sometimes they go same pace all the way through, sometimes they go quick at the start and slow at the end ....... So what ? I disagree with and am surprised with your assertion that the pace of the race doesn't matter, I always thought it was quite fundamental I'll concede that I've not conducted a highly scientific experiment but it's quite possible to run a couple races side by side pretty accurately in order to see how they compare and Lossiemouth's two wins have been run slower than other races on the same day. Yes she might have more up her sleeve and be laden with stamina but my point is that the market has reacted to her easy wins which she gained by injecting pace at the end of a couple of slow run races whereas the Triumph is likely to be a stamina test on quicker ground that will be something completely new |
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yeah i get that duffy
My point is that I dont know if you are the sort of person who is driven to set predictions and benefit from them in other parts of your life. It certainly appears that you are. Horses don't fit inside the neat parameters of home or work life. Horses are far more variable, and less controllable. Even more so the thoroughbred. Your expectation of perfect prediction through some unscientific analysis doesn't take into consideration the fundamental realities of training, owning or riding a racehorse . This ultimately will only lead to disappointment and frustration my friend. |
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I like timing horses over the same trip on the same day.
Timing them from certain hurdles/jumps to another. Not sure why they would speed up a certain relay!!!!! On a different note, were you impressed with how El Fabiolo jumped on debut? Considering he had an uncontested school around I found his jumping a huge disappointment. Thought Appreciate It was far better. |
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Yes I agree with that Brandy.
Having said that ..... Douvan hurdled the fences and paid the price with injury. Denman tanked through them as well, and Bravemansgame is low at times. Penhill couldnt jump a hurdle to save his life and was never risked chasing in public and now even Hendersons Maries Rock was dodgy hurdling pre-injury. I am absolutely certain Willie thinks speed is a far better trait for a horse to have than slowing to jump fences well and safely and he wouldnt risk any of his over jumps in public unless he had seen something at closutton. |
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Happy new year to all….good discussion and everyone entitled to their views ,methods,,there’s no golden rule and we are all not privy to spending time with racehorses…Anyways I got a small interest on Marine National,,resting for new year hopefully fresh and fit and ready come the fezzie
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Good luck with your bet is it nrnb or war as can't see it getting smaller unless something happens the x
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Lol..no it’s on the machine,,saw the trainer on tv over crimbo ..laid out his plan and was adamant,,,hope he’s an honest Irish trainer,,,tbh Bent he’s about my 30th punt,,,,only1 in the supreme
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Bent ,,,this Fascile Mode in the bumper ? Getting matched 8.6 machine,,,what u thinking ?
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The pace of the race can be just as important as the ground and distance. There is no argument if you speak to jockeys and trainers.
Irish mentions Marie’s Rock and as a case in question her impressive win on Sunday was partly due to the strong pace set by Dashel Drasher and Botox has. Marie’s was very fresh and that pace just allowed her to settle enough to show her true running. Anything less and she would have pulled her chances away. Championship races are run to suit her and it will be a great race if Epatante an/or Honeysuckle take her on. |
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Protektorat, Noble **** and Chacun Pour Soi have been tipped by 3 stooges at The Racing Post. The 1st 2 for the Gold Cup (7/1 and 9/1 respectively); 3rd the Ryanair (25/1); Protektorat is a handicapper/ducked King George; Noble **** won The National!; Chacun Pour Soi (11 yrs old/never won at Cheltenham despite numerous chances).
No doubt they are bookies' stooges. The prices are also pants! |
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"Hope he's an honest Irish trainer"
Ask fenton or hogan |
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What am I thinking about the bumper...
.relax have a cup of tea forget the bookies benefit |
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Thx Bent ,,I’ll soldier on thx…if I’m honest with myself,,the bumper been my worst race followed by triumph and supreme …still in my head there big fields ew top 3 1/5….victor used to go top4 ante post on triumph till a few years back….
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A good performance from Champ Kiely and in particular from the jockey, to the eye it really did look like he rode them to sleep a little setting what appeared to be a steady pace. The fact that he settled so well at the pace was a credit to the horse with the last time in mind, I had backed him for the Ballymore previously but I would be a bit suspicious of the form with regards the winner going forward strictly on the way it panned out for him today.
Dawn Rising is one to note for the Albert Bartlett, he stayed on strongly in the Monksfield off of a decent pace throughout and again today he stayed on to the line after looking like he was going nowhere off the home turn, the race today was not run to suit him, he is really crying out for the extra trip and will be interesting when he gets the longer trip I think 25's that is still available represents some value. |
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I read this too late, Dawn Rising is now best priced at 14s and 12s nrnb. Oh well, better late than never
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Still 25/1 a few places for potato race
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DR could run in the MP but a couple of reasons I'd doubt that he would, firstly, he's desperate to go up in trip with improvement very likely which makes the AB so tempting I'd have thought, secondly, he is admittedly a bit clumsy at some of his hurdles and I'd be worried that the apprentices coupled with the helter skelter pace they tend to go in the MP will likely see him outpaced and making mistakes before his stamina ever kicked in.
The steadier nature and more gradual turning of the screw of the AB will give him the perfect conditions to show him to best effect, and remember that he was a classy flat performer who was putting up a decent performance against Al Aasy over just shy of 2 miles as a 3 year old. |
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Looks like N.Henderson has finely came around to my thinking ( 22nd March on here).
I wonder if he reads these posts? |
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Finally
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Nice to have a really good days racing without any stupid low sun problems.
Good to see Comfort Zone win - not going to make Willie Mullins lose too much sleep but at least I go there with a fighting chance and can maybe lay off on the day or during the race. Il Ridoto finally got his act together with the cheekpieces added with a superb front running and jumping display. I've backed him nrnb for the Grand Annual and still think he'd have more chance in that than the Plate especially if they ride him like yesterday, but I expect the Plate is where he will run now. The three big trials all threw up shock winners. In the Clarence House Editor Du Gite simply jumped them silly and while Edwardstone came there to win he wilted in the last 50 yards. A lot of people crabbing Tom Cannon ,and maybe he was guilty of being too far back and only looking at Energuneme so allowing EDG too much of a lead,, but he's never shirked it in a finish before and the fact he traded 1.01 suggests nobody else thought he would. The Irish look to have the Stayers hurdle by the short and curls after the Cleeve. The French horse will presumably be supplemented and will have a good place chance. The Cotswold Chase was won by Ahoy Senor but in a bigger field I can't see his jumping holding up well enough to figure - and besides, a narrow beating of Sounds Russian is hardly very exciting. One horse I put in my notebook was Phoenix Way who ran 4th in the Il Ridoto race. Will be suited to stepping up to 3m+ and being a JP horse may be being lined up for something. |
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irishone05 Dec 22 07:08
Echoes target is the mares hurdle (14\1), she got up and finished o k. Between 3 out and 2 out she was on the bridle Echoes In Rain books Cheltenham ticket Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend lost Naas' opening Grade 3 chase in the stewards' room today but bagged the other such-rated Naas Business Club Limestone Lad Hurdle, with Cheltenham-bound Echoes In Rain (5/6f). The hurdle race's six runners included dual Cheltenham winner Bob Olinger but none could land a blow against Echoes In Rain, which won unextended by 10 lengths from stablemate Cash Back. Mullins.... said “Echoes In Rain did it nicely, probably better than I expected. We thought we probably had the fastest horse in the race so Paul wasn't in any rush to get to the front. He was happy enough to let someone else make it.She was keen enough and probably the few runs on the Flat lit her up a bit. That's the problem you have when you mix it but with a faster run race she'll be alright.” He added “when you go up a grade, to Grade 1, I'm not sure she's sharp enough at two miles. The mares hurdle is 2m4f and maybe that's where she'll go. That would be the first port of call I'd think.” Willie suffering Amnesia, told a Galway gathering that was the plan last July ! Got the 14s anyway . This mare is half decent nearly beat Aidens in the Irish Cesarewich,got done a neck for 250 k ! |
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Wouldnt go near those CHELTENHAM TRIALS DAY placed horses , its a second class hyped up meeting .
What was it last year , 8 races , 24 in the first three, not one winner .......at Cheltenham 6 weeks later. Only one second Imperial alcazar got beat in a handicap by Coole Cody. Four placed ....pied piper, spirit of the games, paisley park plus the imperial alcazbar I bet half of them never even went to Cheltenham last year for the festival .... Some trial that was ! you would think after being placed round there you would be gagging to get back there. Meanwhile same day in Fairyhouse Willies Allegori de vassey was beating brandy love and flame bearer was pi55ing in. Not impressed by anything at all there yesterday |
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To be fair in covid year 2020, that simplythe betts and lisnagar oscar both finished in the first three on trials day and then won at Cheltenham, but you could of seen Alaho win on the same day at Fairyhouse.
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To me this Cheltenham is all about Constitution Hill. I'd to see him exert his superiority (assuming all is good) over Honeysuckle and others over this code and distance.
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Honeysuckle is past her prime and the race won't show superiority over her. Ch is already classed as the best hurdler and State Man is also ahead of her in the betting too. Same race 2 years ago, would prove superiority. It is a non race gambling wise and betting w/o fav or place are the only real value. If the front 3 in the betting over racerach other, it could let Vauban in for the win or one of the also rans in with a place.
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On paper CH should walk it
....then there's the dodgy henderson factor An each way punt on stateman or vauban wont leave you too much out of pocket.....thats what I have with Honeysuckle |
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@andymca as much as I detest the jockey he o ly has to point and shoot,if he races anywhere other than in front I will be surprised and everything will be hard at work at the 2nd last and wouldn't be surprised if he wins by a similar distance that he won last year's supreme
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Oh and 1/3 is a gift
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Comfort Zone not among the 5 day decs for the Triumph which is a bitter blow.
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> Jonbon at 14/1 is the most logical for the Arkle at this stage
> Enurgemene is clearly a beast, though soft ground was a big help to him. He's clearly the most likely winner and 3/1 is ok. > Constitution Hill and it looks like the owner is keen to stay over hurdles. Would certainly favour him over the reigning champion Honeysuckle, Great long-range insight, Uncle. I look forward to this year's edition. |