Sorry Sage.

My "why" was aimed at why you thought it strange Constitution Hill starting off over 2m 3f.

Kilcruit jumped very nicely I thought.
Looks like he will improve plenty for jumping and we know he has the ability.

Ask Hendo. I'm sure he'll concoct a convincing reason for his action.

Perhaps he was afraid of Goshen?

Nicky has always prioritised Cheltenham in March and if he has a candidate for one of the 4 Championship races, he plans that horse's career around that one day. Whether you agree with that strategy or not, that is what he does. If I was lucky enough to own one of those horses, I would choose a more pragmatic trainer who would aim to maximise the number of times that the horse ran and pick up some decent prizes along the way. Paul Nicholls was Champion trainer last season precisely because he ran his horses in and won races away from Cheltenham, particularly at Aintree. This year so far, Greanateen, Frodon, Bravemansgame, Hitman and Knappers Hill have all won valuable races. None of them might be quite good enough to win a Championship race. Contrast Shishkin, Constitution Hill, Epatante, who have not run yet. There is 5 months of the season left, admittedly including most of the high profile meetings but Nicky is already 10 lengths last of the possible Champion Trainer contenders, £700k behind Nicholls. The next 2 days should improve his position somewhat.

And so the racist stuff starts already

Well two months into the season and time for a quick recap.

Not much has happened in the Supreme market bar the expensive Henderson recruit jet Powered putting in a very nice debut at Newbury on Friday. Facile Vega yet to appear.

My Arkle analysis looks pretty inspired now with 14/1 on Jonbon and 33/1 (taken just last night) on Fil Dor.
Banbridge was also impressive but maybe he'll step up in trip?

Constitution Hill looks nailed on for the Champion barring injury.

Onto Wednesday and the Ballymore is another race market that hasn't changed much but American Mike was very disappointing at Navan today and so Grangeclare West who won the novice hurdle on the same card for Mullins looks of interest.

Have no strong opinion on the RSA Chase (Brown Advisory) though I see Gaillard Du Mesnil is quoted which is interesting given he was placed in it last year. He is also hot favourite for the National Hunt Chase and I personally think he could be a live e/w player in the Gold Cup - no doubt Mullins will keep us all guessing.

Champion Chase market is stagnant until Shiskin and Ferny Hollow show they are alive and well.

Looks like Sir Gerhard may be going chasing if the vibes from Ruby are correct. Obviously yet to jump a fence in public but 8/1 for the Turners is not bad given his bumper/hurdles form and connections.
Banbridge at 12/1 is the other interesting one if they aim here.

Ryanair is difficult with Allaho injured and apparently going straight there and Gallopin Du Champ allegedly being aimed at Gold Cup. I'd be tempted to play the latter now at 7/1+ as he could be odds on if he runs and Allaho doesn't.
Of the rest I have a soft spot for Asterion Forlange who has the natural ability and jumped ok in the Gold Cup. 33/1 might be worth a speculative saver in the hope the above two don't show up.

Stayers Hurdle looks very open with Flooring Porter getting beaten at Naas - thought he also got beat on seasonal debut last two years. Bob Olinger ran well in that same race but does he want 3m on the New Course?
Thyme Hill may go back to hurdles after jumping poorly in the novice chase at Newbury on Saturday, though I'd say his chance of winning a Stayers is probably gone. Champ and Paisley Park served up a great race in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury - but again they have had their chances and are surely slightly on the downgrade.
Blazing Khal is definitely interesting now he is definitely staying over hurdles, though it would be nice to see him on a. racecourse before taking the current prices. Was ell over him for the Potato race last year.

There have been a couple of nice Juveniles out but plenty left to come and so no bet advised at this stage.

The Gold Cup picture was muddied by the appalling performance of A Plus Tard at Haydock. Edgy and mulish in the prelims and struggling almost from the off. Apparently no injury or virus found which does make one think!!
Protektorat won the Betfair Chase well but the form is nothing to get too carried away with - very similar to when Lostintranslation won it.
L'Homme Presse won well under a big weight at Newcastle - needs rain if he is to go for the King George.

Maybe Kilcruit for the amateur novice chase?

By the way Brandy is spot on

Interesting card at Fairyhouse today with effectively four Grade 1’s - why don’t we have similar cards in England.

Lossiemouth was very impressive in the Juvenile hurdle and after Vauban last year it’s hardly surprising he is already 3/1 jolly for March.
Having said that I have taken some 20/1 on Comfort Zone who finished a never nearer third. Was surprised they ran him just a week after he made an impressive debut and to me he looks like the more galloping left handed track at Cheltenham will really suit him.

The Royal Bond was won by Marine Nationale who got up in the last stride - reminds me a lot of Brave Inca. But I doubt Facile Vega supporters will have been too perturbed.

The Drinmore was won impressively by Mighty Potter with Gaillard Du Mesnil running well in second over an inadequate trip. Form looks strong with Banbridge well beaten in third. Might Potter was very disappointing at Cheltenham last year so I would be wary.
Still think GDM is an each player in the Gold Cup if they choose that route.

The Hattons Grace saw Honeysuckle beaten for the first time. No surprise to me but sadly I was all over Echoes In Rain who had just started to make her move when falling two out. No idea if she would have been involved in the photo finish but frustrating none the less. Hard to see any of them troubling Constitution Hill.
Vauban is the only credible rival but I wonder if we will see him this season.

She

Getting the fillies allowance will make her even harder to beat.

However, interesting to read your analysis Duffy and it makes me even more keen to back Comfort Zone who, imo, would not have been suited by a crawl.

Honeysuckle wasnt 100% . Guarenteed .


Echoes target is the mares hurdle (14\1), she got up and finished o k. Between 3 out and 2 out she was on the bridle.

Honeysuckle & Epatante,Mares Hdle or the Chmpn?
5/1 & 9/2 for the Mares atm.

I do not think she'd an off-day. I think it was regression. As such, a stonking lay at 10; probably not good enough to win even without Constitution Hill.

Echoes aint a bridle horse
You dont win the amateur race at Galway on the bridle
She was well under the cosh a she hadbeen in previous races and responded well

Another good read uncle but do try leaving out the after timing !

^Thanks golightly.

I'd read Willies comment after the race “I think he’s championship bumper class so he’ll be heading down that road. He’ll probably come back here for the Dublin Racing Festival.” - I just assumed when he said 'Championship Bumper class' he was referring to the Cheltenham bumper.

Fortunately hadn't staked any money on it - though some bookies still offering odds? Obviously it could never run so anyone who had a bet on it should get it voide, but good luck trying to get your money back!!

Lossiemouths race was run very slowly once again, slower than Dark Raven's and quite a bit slower run than the novice handicappers later,but, once again she was the fastest horse,all things being equal though the Triumph will be a much stiffer test, she may well be up to it but she's getting hammered in the market without us having seen if she could cope with a stamina test on quick ground that the Triumph is likely to be.

If the Spring Juvenile is another dawdle and she wins there she will be banker material for many but I think she will also have her fair share of people putting her up as a shortie to lay come the preview nights.

Duffy .....

"Lossiemouths race was run very slowly once again, slower than Dark Raven's and quite a bit slower run than the novice handicappers later"


According to official figures ...


1st.  Lossiemouth (FR) 3, gr f 10-9 (Mrs S Ricci)
(4:08.4 5.92 secs slower on today's going )L



1st,Dark Raven (IRE) 5, br g 11-12 (Simon Munir)
(4:10.1 7.62 secs slower on today's going )


Dark Raven ran the same course 1.7 seconds slower than Lossiemouth and half an hour previous  ?


The novice handicap was won in 0.8 of a second quicker , how is that quite a bit faster over a four minute race ?

Have been thinking Il Ridoto is being plotted up for the Grand Annual - similar pattern to Le Prezien a few years ago.
Will keep a close eye on him today.
Sadly can’t find any bookie quoting him for the GA.