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. I'll finally give up on Chacun Por Soi who will be 11 next year, but Enurgemene is clearly a beast, though soft ground was a big help to him. He's clearly the most likely winner and 3/1 is ok.|
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Nice write up Uncle.
Agree with a lot of that. As long as he returns sound, I think Shishkin could be a King George horse next season. Constitution Hill looks better than anything Honeysuckle has faced before so fingers crossed they both turn up fit and well next year. Sir Gerhard and Appreciate It will be 8 and 9 respectively next season so not the best age to go novice chasing having wasted their 6 year old season running in bumpers. Vauban looked an above average winner of the Triumph and value for more than his winning distance. The owners bumper horse, Mercury, looks a nice prospect for novice hurdles next season. Gallopin looked very good and was given a TimeForm figure of 175. Jumps too extravagant to be a Gold Cup horse at the moment. |
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great write up uncle...im also a big fan of gallard du mensil would guess ryannair at this stage
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Thanks Uncle. Keep us updated, this is good stuff.
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Constitution Hill: 5/1 Arkle; 5/2 Champion Hurdle.
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another worth a bit of interest would be buzz
in the stayers was looking good and got injured in his box around xmas,,,bit of 20/1 would be nice ..,,,, |
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Buzz: Hendo the handicap. He's too bookie friendly. I'll need to know extent of injury and potential not affected prior.
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totally agree,,,,knew chantry house was a ponce,,,and it comes with risk,,,hence 20/1 needed...if gets there in 1 piece be a result
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I was looking for a price for Appreciate It for the stayers.
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Surely Appreciate It will going chasing next season, injury permitting - he's a lovely stamp of a horse.
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In terms of the handicaps and horses that might win big races in the near future a couple that caught my eye are:
Celebre D'Allen - was only 4/1 for the Plate over 2m5f having won smoothly on his three previous starts. Not sure if it was the ground or the undulating track but he was struggling for most of the race but stayed on really well and still looks well handicapped. I'll be looking out for him in the 3 miler on Grand National day. Il Ridoto - ultimately beaten 31 lengths in the Grand Annual on that rain sodden Wednesday but made up a lot of ground from 4 out to 2 before tiring in the straight. He's always looked a slightly soft finisher so the attritional conditions wouldn't have been up his street and back on a flat track and better ground he would be of interest. I'd imaging the 2 miler handicap (Red Rum Chase?) on the first day at Aintree will be the aim, or maybe a similar race at the Scottish National meeting where Nicholls likes to send a big team. |
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A long range flyer at this stage, and I put it in an ante post bet early season for this year but horse wasn't targeted is Zanahiyr for the stayers, he desperately wants to go up in trip, is banging his head against the best 2 milers and it's only going to get harder, it might be worth experimenting to see if he will stay.
At this stage 5/1 about Shishkin is worth betting, it's no point waiting to see and all that, I'd sooner take the chance he's fine at this stage and get that huge price, a week ago he was a monster, you can't just write off what we have seen about him after one, all be it major, disappointment. |
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I'd not have Shishkin. Might Bite and Altior kaput after an exhaustive race unless Shishkin was marginalised in his latest race. He must proved he's ok prior.
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Only reason I was looking at Appreciate It for the stayers is because he will be 9 next season and surely won't go novice chasing now??
If Shishkin is OK I think he wants/needs further than 2 miles now. But his performance on Wednesday would really worry me. Never ran a yard and you can't put that down to the ground, surely |
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Aintree Hurdle might be interesting for Zanahiyr as a stepping stone to next year up in trip, they were successful with Abacadabras in the race last year.
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I must say I can't understand the Shishkin needs further narrative, where does it come from, we've seen no evidence of it, what happened at Cheltenham has no bearing at all on this theory, he won at 2 miles at Ascot despite a couple of mistakes and Cheltenham would suit him better, what happened last week was an abhoration but it does not bode the question about distance being an issue.
If he was beat fair and square with evidence put before us as to what should happen going forward then fair enough, 5/1 about him next year is what I would expect to see about him if he ran his race and was beaten fair and square, as it is it appears a big price and as basically a price against his well being. Energumene is much the same horse as we knew he was before, he had no pressure and simply had to jump round to collect, I do not see the division being much deeper than it was this year with perhaps Ferny Hollow coming into it, although on a line through River d'etel perhaps he is going to have to go up a couple of levels to compete at the top. I'm prepared to trust that Shishkin that we all thought was a monster a week a go, still is and I've started backing him at 5's and am prepared to lose if he's not...price is just worth it. |
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Shiskin's put 1 bad performance in 13 outings,if
you don't count the hurdle fall. People are writing him off. |
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done pretty good with my long range punts this time last year,,,so going in again...first lucky 15 and singles...Queen mum Energumene...Champ hurdle Vauban....Stayers Buzz....Gold cup Monkfish,,,also any thoughts be appreciated anyone where Gaelic Warrior will be aimed next year
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Shishkin at 5/1 is an excellent price to trade from as his price will shrink before his next "proper" race unless he defects. I understand his pilot was still unsure whether it was merely the ground responsible for his flop at Cheltenham.
I do not think people are writing off Shishkin after one bad performance. I think it was a combination of the way he ran, and solely the "bad" ground responsible as stated categorically by Hendo. Would I back him if odds-against eg 7/4 or more for the Celebration Chase against our British lot? Very possibly - out of loyalty and value, but no Champion Chase even at 5/1 presently for me. |
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Not one of the media gravy slurpers have asked Nicky what was wrong with the going when the horse has won on heavy, that horse never travelled at any stage
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I am definitely not writing him off. He hasn't suddenly become a bad horse I totally agree.
But for me you can't put that performance down to the ground. He was beat after 2 fences and has form on soft going. At Ascot he ran like a horse who needed further personally. Energumene had him out of his comfort zone the whole way. Maybe that race took a lot more out of him than they thought. His next race will tell us more for sure. I hope he comes back as good as ever because we all want competition which so many of the grade 1 races last week lacked. |
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Tickets on sale
NOW Sorry not a sale £52 tatts ![]() |
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Cheers uncle
Good luck |
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I think if Shishkin bombs in the Celebration Chase at Sandown next month retirement could be imminent for him esp with Constitution Hill (CH) coming through the rank. But, I do hope Michael Buckley says no to his star going chasing next season.
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You think 8-year-old Shiskin, who was the highest rated chaser in training this time last week, is about to be retired?
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BF have put 13 races up for 2023. It's like the old days.
Maybe they'll abolish PC next. |
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Great! All the Grade 1s apart from the bumper. Now we dan get on with the business of guessing which races which Mullins horses will run in
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LOL - that's what it's all about.
Shall I ask them to put the same 13 races up NRNB? Just for a laff. I quite like the idea, but their computer would have a meltdown trying to work out how to do partial settlements. |
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An interesting point strontium ,i wonder who it was in the mullins team that suggested dysart would make the pace and kilcruit would come late and pick everything up ?
I also wonder if Willie heard about the improvement in CH and moved SG to avoid ! |
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I see Timform have rated CH 177p, which is the seventh highest rating they have ever given a hurdler, and the highest ever for a novice. (For context, their highest rated hurdler is Night Nurse on 182.)
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I was thinking the same regarding the Mullins trams riding plans for the Supreme.
When Dysart broke the tape causing the false start the horse looked wired. He was really buzzed up. I don't think they could have ridden him any different to be honest. And they certainly wouldn't have wanted to run Kilcruit up against him to make him go any faster. It almost looked like the Henderson team sacrificed Jonbon and to not let Dysart have an easy time of it up front. I have marked Jonbon up on his performance for that reason. |
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The Brown Advisory (RSA) form is looking awfully good.
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The RSA bottoms out too many
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The key horses once again are Constitution Hill and A Plus Tard in the two Blue Riband races. I hope Shishkin can recover fully from last season's predicament and reclaim his crown in The Champion Chase. Anything more is a bonus.
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"Reclaim his crown" ?????
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Jonbon now looks the best 2 mile novice chaser and Thyme Hill was adequate over 3 miles. Does he have the class for the RSA though? still very early days but I suppose anyone backing Constitution Hill this morning will either be pleased or very disappointed by 2.45. A bit strange to be starting over 2 miles 3 furlongs though.
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Kilcruit entered the 2 mile chase lists today.
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Why?
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Perhaps its because someone has seen past Jonbon ?
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Because he showed that he jumps really well, and his hurdle form is top class. Jonbon beat him 2.5 lengths at Cheltenham in March. Jonbon is now 5/2 for the Arkle. Kilcruit is 65 on here. Is he being aimed at the longer novice chases?
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