Cheltenham Festival

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08 Mar 21 10:21
Date Joined: 09 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 189 | Blogger: yeasty's blog
Hi all,

What price do you think Royal Pagaille would go off at in the NH Chase? I'm sitting on a good position with Galvin in loads of multiples. Race looks like it will fall apart but increasingly it also looks like Royal Pagaille will be an (unwelcome for me!) addition. I'm actually quite surprised that 2/1 with Billy's and 13/8 BOG with 365 are available - I was thinking he'd be much shorter.

Am debating whether to have a lump on Royal Pagaille now - any opinions welcome!

Pause Switch to Standard View Royal Pagaille SP in the NH Chase?
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Report strontium March 8, 2021 11:25 AM GMT
I thought he looked a big price for a horse that was 10/1 for the Gold Cup. The drying ground might not be in his favour though. If you go for the 13/8 BOG, what have you got to lose?
Report yeasty March 8, 2021 11:41 AM GMT
Thanks Strontium - fair point
Report strontium March 8, 2021 12:50 PM GMT
I've just seen that Galvin has moved stable. Would be a (big) negative for me so soon before a big race. I don't think it's been factored into Envoi Allen's price yet, despite his talent.
Report FOYLESWAR March 8, 2021 1:22 PM GMT
not so sure royal pag would be too heavy very soft ground dependent ,it was heavy at haydock granted but at kempton he was 10 secs fast than standard and 4 of the other 5 races were also faster ,not a times guru and may have it wrong but imo  to me good  soft may  be ok for him . would go gold cup if he were mine .
Report FOYLESWAR March 8, 2021 1:25 PM GMT
am in a similar position yeasty ,have enegumene at 25s and 20s do i lay him or have a lumpy bet on shishkin as cover .
Report yeasty March 8, 2021 1:48 PM GMT
I would wait and put up a lay in-running, Foyleswar. He's going to go off in front and I'd be amazed if he didn't shorten considerably from his SP after a few fences. You're gambling that he jumps them of course but I think the risk is worth it. You're on at cracking prices  - way better than my Galvin prices. As such I reckon the lay is better than a lump on Shiskin. Good luck.
Report GAZO March 8, 2021 1:55 PM GMT
lay it now for your money back at least,something could happen to him and also if envoi allen doesnt run for any reason he could even switch races
Report Andymca March 8, 2021 1:57 PM GMT
Galvin has proven he is leading markrt contender, whereas Royal Pagaille could be anything. I too have Galvin in loads of multiples, but am still not too worried, although I would prefer Royal Pagaille went the Gold Cup route.
Report Andymca March 9, 2021 8:23 AM GMT
Cheltenham Festival fancy Galvin moves to Ian Ferguson from Gordon Elliott yard
Report layingisthewayforward March 9, 2021 9:52 AM GMT
Saw a comment on the horse racing forum suggesting that Galvin moved to Ian Ferguson last year, long before the Gordon Elliot saga. Dont know how true that is.
Report GAZO March 9, 2021 10:31 AM GMT
the new trainer does say the horse and a fair few of the owners horses go to his stable when on a break from racing and he did actually break galvin in so he knows the horse quite well
Report strontium March 9, 2021 1:21 PM GMT
Still a big disruption for the animal just before a major race. Thoroughbreds are nutty and dependent on routine. Different stables/feed/people upset them. I see the other day Paul Nicholls said it often takes a horse a year to fully adapt to a new yard - and a horse only needs to be slightly off its best to be well beaten at the Festival.
Report FOYLESWAR March 9, 2021 5:43 PM GMT
the highest or  rated novice in the country 2 pound higher than monkfish ,pound higher than shishkin and envoi ,and they going for the nash hunt chase ! go figga!
Report Hibore March 9, 2021 5:58 PM GMT
The ground being softer on day one was the reason I heard. The ratings at this stage are up for he’s rated higher than Monkfish needs some explanation.
Report FOYLESWAR March 9, 2021 6:36 PM GMT
have backed lord royal 16/1  each way nrnb for this . needs to step up but the race looks as tho it could cut up and dont think it will be anywhere near 16s on the day if lining up.
Report Hibore March 9, 2021 6:44 PM GMT
Are you not backing RP ?
Report FOYLESWAR March 9, 2021 6:48 PM GMT
not in this ,price dont interest me !
Report differentdrum March 10, 2021 5:28 PM GMT
I am surprised that he isn't odds on. Surely he is miles clear on ratings? How many of the others would be running in a Gold Cup? Is the thought that Deutsch might be on board?
Report seaserpent March 10, 2021 5:31 PM GMT
If he runs here I would think he will be about 11/8
Report The Dragon March 10, 2021 8:47 PM GMT
i debated a while back what to back him in, and it looks like its the NHChase , have taken the 13/8
Report wonkeydonkey March 11, 2021 4:24 PM GMT
Not sure why everyone is convinced he is going to run in this race tbh.
Think its only worth backing him at an inflated price in the gold cup and a speculative bet on something else in this race just in case he does not turn up in this race.
Report The Dragon March 11, 2021 6:39 PM GMT
ante post betting eh???  all a bit of a lottery but good when you get it right
Report ashleigh March 14, 2021 9:07 AM GMT
runs in the gold cup.
Report Nogoody March 14, 2021 9:37 AM GMT
Obviously scared of Galvin.Laugh
Report jfromthewells March 14, 2021 9:46 AM GMT
that is very poor, i would hope a trainer and owner would know longer than a hour before final declarations which race it would run in
specially as its the biggest race in the racing calender. surely it would make a difference when its final piece of serious work would be if it was running on Tuesday or a Friday, VERY POOR
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 9:50 AM GMT
nrnb the way to go on anything now ,anthing happens to monkfish and royal p goes rsa .... make sure you go  NRNB!
Report GAZO March 14, 2021 9:57 AM GMT
doesnt give you confidence for the gold cup
Report ashleigh March 14, 2021 10:01 AM GMT
markets now suspended.
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 10:25 AM GMT
yeasty will be happy !
Report cobra sam March 14, 2021 10:31 AM GMT
if oddschecker correct 8 runners supreme .6 in the arkle...16 in the ultima
Report Deptford March 14, 2021 10:32 AM GMT
Yep ^ very poor indeed, sad.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 10:37 AM GMT
RP would never have gone to the Gold Cup if with Mullins. It's good to see Venetia Williams making the call.
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 10:43 AM GMT
I dont think you can eally compare Venetia Williams with the greatest jump trainer of our generation and she would be the first to tell you that.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 10:47 AM GMT
I was not comparing the trainers. I was merely suggesting Mullins will never field another potential star of his eg Monkfish against ABP esp with the latter on a 3-timer of wins. If RP had been with Mullins he'd be NHC bound, a near certainty ie no competition to ABP or Monkfish; RP could still go RSA if Monkfish defects.
Report GAZO March 14, 2021 10:48 AM GMT
i imagine the owner made the call
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 10:51 AM GMT
Ricci? Remember Vautour's Ryanair debacle? Who made the call?
Report paulo47 March 14, 2021 10:55 AM GMT
I was there the day Teeton Mill 7/2 2nd fav went lame and finished his career , hoping its  a better result for Venetia this year .
Report GAZO March 14, 2021 10:55 AM GMT
mullins made the call,so why do you think williams made this one ?
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 10:58 AM GMT
I would assume that owners will follow the advice of the trainer, but ultimately, they have the final decision.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 11:16 AM GMT
NHC is a non-event for the potential of RP, and the much of a muchness Gold Cup field including ABP is another incentive; the RSA is a no-go given the shortie fav Monkfish (same ownership).

Did Ricci not suggest Vautour would be staying in his box, if no Gold Cup? Gold Cup is the right race for RP unless something untoward prevents Monkfish from turning up.
Report differentdrum March 14, 2021 11:35 AM GMT
Market shouted that Royale Pagaille wasn't going to run. He should have been odds on but a horse who is officially a stone inferior was backed into favourite.

I don't think Royale Pagaille will be winning a Gold Cup, but more than likely would have won this. Galvin supporters have got very lucky that the big fly in the ointment has disappeared.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 11:44 AM GMT
I think connections are caught between a rock and a hard place. The ideal race would be The RSA amongst his own age group. Still, the Gold Cup is the more logical than the National Hunt Chase.
Report Platini March 14, 2021 5:14 PM GMT
2/1, they knew. etc. Sad

I had a fiver on a nice looking 13/2 treble with RP, Monkfish and Envoi Allen.

Thats ante-post betting for you.
Report fife March 14, 2021 8:27 PM GMT
I have 50/1 nrnb and 66/1 antepost Royal  Pagaille though the 50/1 nrnb is with the sportsbook and they kindly let me have 25p winAngry and I  am not exaggerating  as I only asked for a £1Sad.
Report FOYLESWAR March 14, 2021 8:41 PM GMT
they let you have 25p have to admire these risk takers!
Report fife March 14, 2021 8:52 PM GMT
I dont understand it as I am certainly down with them Sadand even the 66/1 bet with another bookie is only for £1.20 so I shouldn't get carried awayHappy.
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 9:33 PM GMT
Billys allowed me £4.80 on an ehanced special bet @ 7/1 but the other 20p  was only taken at the standard rate of 5/1, the mind boggles
Report sageform March 15, 2021 10:43 AM GMT
It certainly does andy. How can they make any money if they won't stand a £5 bet? I can remember signs saying £10 minimum on course in the old days.
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2021 10:48 AM GMT
must be making it elsewhere sage  with the shops shut youd think they would be glad of the online horseracing buissness , could it be anything in these casino games with people stuck in at home are hammering thier dough on them?
Report sageform March 15, 2021 11:00 AM GMT
Flutter shares are up 8% this morning. Clearly taking our bets is not where they are getting it fromConfused
Report duffy March 15, 2021 10:23 PM GMT
how do the books think they will manage if they adhere to the affordability check rules correctly because a whopping great slice of their profits must be coming from the slots and that's where the most vulnerable are and therefore are the ones supposedly going to be cut backCrazy

yeah right!!!
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