Cheltenham Festival
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Hi all,
What price do you think Royal Pagaille would go off at in the NH Chase? I'm sitting on a good position with Galvin in loads of multiples. Race looks like it will fall apart but increasingly it also looks like Royal Pagaille will be an (unwelcome for me!) addition. I'm actually quite surprised that 2/1 with Billy's and 13/8 BOG with 365 are available - I was thinking he'd be much shorter.
Am debating whether to have a lump on Royal Pagaille now - any opinions welcome!
Thanks
What price do you think Royal Pagaille would go off at in the NH Chase? I'm sitting on a good position with Galvin in loads of multiples. Race looks like it will fall apart but increasingly it also looks like Royal Pagaille will be an (unwelcome for me!) addition. I'm actually quite surprised that 2/1 with Billy's and 13/8 BOG with 365 are available - I was thinking he'd be much shorter.
Am debating whether to have a lump on Royal Pagaille now - any opinions welcome!
Thanks
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Replies: 51
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I thought he looked a big price for a horse that was 10/1 for the Gold Cup. The drying ground might not be in his favour though. If you go for the 13/8 BOG, what have you got to lose?
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Thanks Strontium - fair point
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I've just seen that Galvin has moved stable. Would be a (big) negative for me so soon before a big race. I don't think it's been factored into Envoi Allen's price yet, despite his talent.
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not so sure royal pag would be too heavy very soft ground dependent ,it was heavy at haydock granted but at kempton he was 10 secs fast than standard and 4 of the other 5 races were also faster ,not a times guru and may have it wrong but imo to me good soft may be ok for him . would go gold cup if he were mine .
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am in a similar position yeasty ,have enegumene at 25s and 20s do i lay him or have a lumpy bet on shishkin as cover .
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I would wait and put up a lay in-running, Foyleswar. He's going to go off in front and I'd be amazed if he didn't shorten considerably from his SP after a few fences. You're gambling that he jumps them of course but I think the risk is worth it. You're on at cracking prices - way better than my Galvin prices. As such I reckon the lay is better than a lump on Shiskin. Good luck.
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lay it now for your money back at least,something could happen to him and also if envoi allen doesnt run for any reason he could even switch races
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Galvin has proven he is leading markrt contender, whereas Royal Pagaille could be anything. I too have Galvin in loads of multiples, but am still not too worried, although I would prefer Royal Pagaille went the Gold Cup route.
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Cheltenham Festival fancy Galvin moves to Ian Ferguson from Gordon Elliott yard
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/cheltenham-festival-fancy-galvin-moves-to-ian-ferguson-from-gordon-elliott-yard/476987 |
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Saw a comment on the horse racing forum suggesting that Galvin moved to Ian Ferguson last year, long before the Gordon Elliot saga. Dont know how true that is.
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the new trainer does say the horse and a fair few of the owners horses go to his stable when on a break from racing and he did actually break galvin in so he knows the horse quite well
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Still a big disruption for the animal just before a major race. Thoroughbreds are nutty and dependent on routine. Different stables/feed/people upset them. I see the other day Paul Nicholls said it often takes a horse a year to fully adapt to a new yard - and a horse only needs to be slightly off its best to be well beaten at the Festival.
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the highest or rated novice in the country 2 pound higher than monkfish ,pound higher than shishkin and envoi ,and they going for the nash hunt chase ! go figga!
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The ground being softer on day one was the reason I heard. The ratings at this stage are up for discussion....how he’s rated higher than Monkfish needs some explanation.
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have backed lord royal 16/1 each way nrnb for this . needs to step up but the race looks as tho it could cut up and dont think it will be anywhere near 16s on the day if lining up.
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Are you not backing RP ?
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not in this ,price dont interest me !
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I am surprised that he isn't odds on. Surely he is miles clear on ratings? How many of the others would be running in a Gold Cup? Is the thought that Deutsch might be on board?
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If he runs here I would think he will be about 11/8
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i debated a while back what to back him in, and it looks like its the NHChase , have taken the 13/8
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Not sure why everyone is convinced he is going to run in this race tbh.
Think its only worth backing him at an inflated price in the gold cup and a speculative bet on something else in this race just in case he does not turn up in this race. |
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ante post betting eh??? all a bit of a lottery but good when you get it right
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runs in the gold cup.
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Obviously scared of Galvin.
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that is very poor, i would hope a trainer and owner would know longer than a hour before final declarations which race it would run in
specially as its the biggest race in the racing calender. surely it would make a difference when its final piece of serious work would be if it was running on Tuesday or a Friday, VERY POOR |
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nrnb the way to go on anything now ,anthing happens to monkfish and royal p goes rsa .... make sure you go NRNB!
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doesnt give you confidence for the gold cup
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markets now suspended.
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yeasty will be happy !
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if oddschecker correct 8 runners supreme .6 in the arkle...16 in the ultima
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Yep ^ very poor indeed, sad.
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RP would never have gone to the Gold Cup if with Mullins. It's good to see Venetia Williams making the call.
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I dont think you can eally compare Venetia Williams with the greatest jump trainer of our generation and she would be the first to tell you that.
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I was not comparing the trainers. I was merely suggesting Mullins will never field another potential star of his eg Monkfish against ABP esp with the latter on a 3-timer of wins. If RP had been with Mullins he'd be NHC bound, a near certainty ie no competition to ABP or Monkfish; RP could still go RSA if Monkfish defects.
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i imagine the owner made the call
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Ricci? Remember Vautour's Ryanair debacle? Who made the call?
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I was there the day Teeton Mill 7/2 2nd fav went lame and finished his career , hoping its a better result for Venetia this year .
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mullins made the call,so why do you think williams made this one ?
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I would assume that owners will follow the advice of the trainer, but ultimately, they have the final decision.
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