Cheltenham Festival

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07 Mar 21 19:12
Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 12,986 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
I don't stand to win much on this horse, but increasingly he is the one horse I want to see win at the Festival. It seems every single clever dick out there is fielding against him. I have just read four alternatives to him on the Sporting Life, one of which isn't even running. What has the horse done wrong? He was probably beaten by a decent horse last year and has won all his three starts over hurdles by daylight. Two starts ago he couldn't have been more impressive and last time he still got the job done without Fire Attack to run at. He stays well, seems straightforward and the likely faster pace should suit him well. There are plenty of others you could throw darts at that don't have those credentials.
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Report Deptford March 7, 2021 8:21 PM GMT
I agree, I watched all his races again today and most of the other runners races, and just thought he will win, Soaring Glory is the only one I can see beating him, and think Glory will be suited be the better ground.
Report jimnast March 7, 2021 8:46 PM GMT
ballyadam got a bit closer to him at the dublin festival than he did at christmas however he was still put in his place,i thought at the start of the season he would be a ballymore horse but there you go.
Report jedi sophie March 7, 2021 8:50 PM GMT
Appreciate it lover signing in....
Report Hibore March 7, 2021 9:01 PM GMT
I think people are only against him because of the current price.

Good to soft I’d think you’d get 5/2 on the day.
Report jimnast March 7, 2021 9:24 PM GMT
good to soft when he was very impressive in his bumper win at leopardstown .
Report Andymca March 7, 2021 9:47 PM GMT
I would think the Irish will lump on him to get the money to lump on Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle. Shiskin looks too strong to oppose in the Arkle.
Report jimnast March 7, 2021 9:55 PM GMT
slight problem there andy there wont be any irish there or brits for that matter.
Report Hibore March 7, 2021 9:59 PM GMT
Soft ground 5/4....goodish ground 9/4-5/2.

Soft he wins....goodish I’m not so sure.
Report Andymca March 7, 2021 10:13 PM GMT
The money will still be there though Jim
Report Bentring March 8, 2021 12:12 AM GMT
So hibore at 5/2 are you a player
Report duffy March 8, 2021 3:24 AM GMT
Wants to set his own pace if it isn't quick and make it as stiff a test as he can without being compromised himself which is a fine line, because he would be vulnerable to something quicker. They didn't seem to go quick in the bumper last year and he travelled strongly through the race and turning in was still cruising and had 4 lengths in his pocket on Ferny Hollow, but couldn't pick up and the winner made the ground up and ran right on by.

He's got stamina as his big strength and the Supreme is typically a staying type of race and it looks a mediocre field so on balance I think he's the most likely winner, the price is horrible though.
Report Hibore March 8, 2021 9:57 AM GMT
I think it’s a poor race bar the top 4. Would I back AI at 5/2 on quicker ground than soft ?.......probably worth the risk.
Report differentdrum March 8, 2021 1:03 PM GMT
Why does he want to set his own pace? He was held up on hurdling debut and was happy to be towed along by Fire Attack when very impressive. He just wants a decent pace, he doesn't need to set it. I am sure under those circumstances he would be quite happy to sit behind the leader.
Report duffy March 8, 2021 2:20 PM GMT
That's what I said, set his own pace if it isn't quick enough, he would have to be prepared to do so rather than allow himself to be vulnerable if it isn't strong enough.
Report Fashion Fever March 8, 2021 2:23 PM GMT
can't see many runners ? hoping for the hills 7 places been a big earner last 2 years
Report differentdrum March 8, 2021 3:34 PM GMT
Apologies Duffy, I misread your comment.
Report duffy March 8, 2021 4:09 PM GMT
Quite alrightWink
Report differentdrum March 9, 2021 2:54 PM GMT
A few people have put up Keskonrisk, but it seems if you take the comments on At The Races at face value he is now more likely to go Ballymore.

Yes, that is the tougher race, but surely a better fit for the horse. He hasn't looked anywhere near quick enough for a Supreme in his two hurdle runs. Along with Bear Ghylls I think he would be the other one to bustle up the front three in the Ballymore. Really looking forward to that race.
Report sageform March 9, 2021 7:16 PM GMT
Looks the obvious winner but I would not put it past Willie to win it with another one.
Report Deptford March 9, 2021 7:19 PM GMT
Soaring Glory not a def apparantly.
Report Fashion Fever March 9, 2021 7:34 PM GMT
backed him 40s when segal put him up was on devilscoachman to devastating
Report differentdrum March 9, 2021 9:07 PM GMT
The reason being giving for possibly not running Soaring Glory is that the owner won't be there. Wouldn't be many runners if they all did that.
Report Fashion Fever March 10, 2021 12:27 AM GMT
be lucky if 10 turn up supreme
Report strontium March 10, 2021 12:07 PM GMT
Only 18 left in today.
Report sageform March 10, 2021 12:09 PM GMT
Are half of them trained by W Mullins? The RP site is still showing about 40 still in.
Report strontium March 10, 2021 12:14 PM GMT
Six Mullins left in. It takes the RP and hour or so to update.
Report sageform March 10, 2021 12:28 PM GMT
Thanks strontium. I still wonder if Mullins will pull another rabbit out of his hat to beat Appreciate It. My only £2 bet was the Henderson horse that was withdrawn weeks ago so I will be watching and learning until Allmankind wins the ArkleCool
Report paulo47 March 10, 2021 12:45 PM GMT
Betfair Sportsbook has them up
Report mcgoldrick March 10, 2021 1:06 PM GMT
Is Bob Olinger still in?
Report penzance March 10, 2021 1:15 PM GMT
20s on here.
Report mcgoldrick March 10, 2021 1:32 PM GMT
Soaring Glory looks all right at 13.5 win only
Report sageform March 10, 2021 1:42 PM GMT
Willie has not left in his unraced or the unbeaten one from France which were the ones I was interested in. The ones that run all have Irish form.
Report FOYLESWAR March 10, 2021 1:47 PM GMT
soaring glory not sure to run here
Report mcgoldrick March 10, 2021 2:07 PM GMT
Fair point FOYLES, the price has that risk inbuilt I guess. There must still be a genuine question over his participation.
Report paulo47 March 10, 2021 2:11 PM GMT
At least one formline horse left too , have the 250s Guard Your Dreams , still has to run though .
Report FOYLESWAR March 10, 2021 2:11 PM GMT
if you want to back it nrnb the way to go ,8/1 for the county hurdle with b365, possibly wont line up at the festival.
Report paulo47 March 10, 2021 2:13 PM GMT
In everything !
Report seaserpent March 10, 2021 2:15 PM GMT
I can understand the opposition to Appreciate it at the price, in my opinion he should be running in the Ballymore and with the ground likely to be decent you can just visualise it getting done for toe
Report Nogoody March 10, 2021 5:07 PM GMT
Not my cup of tea amd I'm not an Arber but it struck me that there's money to be made by laying it here @ 2.74. I'd be surprised if the books don't go 2/1 on the day.
Report differentdrum March 10, 2021 5:14 PM GMT
I suspect Guard Your Dreams only in this because he can't get into anything that he had a decent chance of winning.

Why should Appreciate It be running in the Ballymore? He has the best form at two miles and the Ballymore looks a (much) better race.
Report paulo47 March 10, 2021 7:30 PM GMT
He has a chance of getting into any of his other three races , but am out for a profit so its academic to me . Would like to see him emulate Idole First in 2005 , also was 6th in the Schweppes , and went on to win the Coral Cup for Venetia and O'Keefe .
Report differentdrum March 11, 2021 5:49 PM GMT
Is it a surprise they have left Bob Olinger in? Would they run him in this under any circumstances? It looks the much weaker race and I think his second to Ferny Hollow might be better form than his two runs over further. I know he is favourite for the Ballymore, but he would be very close to favourite for this race as well.
Report differentdrum March 14, 2021 11:36 AM GMT
Can anyone remember a weaker looking Supreme.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
The winner will not be an Altior or Vautour or Douvan for sure. A pathetic turnout not reflected by the number of youngsters coming up the rank. I think any of the 3 principals in The Triumph could win it possibly doing handstand.

Have none cottoned on?
Report Andymca March 14, 2021 12:04 PM GMT
Weak opposition does not mean a weak favourite
Report differentdrum March 14, 2021 12:20 PM GMT
There is danger that For Pleasure could make a mess of this race.

Appreciate It wants a strong race, but I doubt he wants to be the one having to chase down a 20 length leader.
Report impossible123 March 14, 2021 12:23 PM GMT
Just look at the field. Any standout dish despite a shortie fav? Post race the winner will be forgotten probably, and forever.
Report irishone March 14, 2021 12:27 PM GMT
Well he is Irish aint he ?
Report kingG111111 March 14, 2021 12:31 PM GMT
Soaring glory is a certainty
Report paulo47 March 14, 2021 12:49 PM GMT
Grumpy Charlie will also want to be prominent , Irascible was in the Pharma and Blue Lord certain to be handier than he was in that race .
Report ZEALOT March 14, 2021 9:26 PM GMT
Soaring glory is a certainty

Report Ibrahima Sonko March 14, 2021 10:26 PM GMT
Totally agree with opening post, fed up with so called experts knocking his form. He is miles ahead of the rest. 

Big fan of SG but he needs a big field pace, he still might get it but he needs to improve to be placed.
Report irishone March 14, 2021 10:30 PM GMT
"a big field pace "

eeeerrrrmmm the supreme at Cheltenham ?
Report irishone March 14, 2021 10:32 PM GMT
User impossible123 • March 14, 2021 11:52 AM GMT
The winner will not be an Altior or Vautour or Douvan for sure.

My god the bollox you talk have no idea whatsoever about horses
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 14, 2021 10:51 PM GMT
Im sure you know that a big field helps with cover, travelling, etc.

So irishone are you guaranteeing a decent pace ?
Report irishone March 15, 2021 6:01 AM GMT
What in the Supreme ?

Are you saying that because the place is empty they wont charge the tapes like they usually do
Are you saying because the place is empty you wont get the usual roar that fires them up like you usually do
Are you saying because there are only 8 runners you wont get the usual cavalry charge down the hill ?

For me there are a few in it that cant win it
They will try to take the sting out of those that could win it
They wont be hanging about

But that is not his point !   

Impossible has this far reaching yoda hypothesis that tells him that this years winner will  not be vautour, douvan or altior.

Well feck me ...what a judge !
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 15, 2021 10:00 AM GMT
Not sure if you are replying to me or you are having an argument with some other poster ?

Or just arguing with everyone.
Report Andymca March 15, 2021 10:02 AM GMT
Would start a fight in an empty roomWink
Report sageform March 15, 2021 10:20 AM GMT
The reason for the usual cavalry charge is to get a position before the first flight and then the long bend after the stands. With 8 runners that is irrelevant. The charge will be in the Boodles. With 20 runners, half of them are too far back to win before they get to the water jump.
Report FOYLESWAR March 15, 2021 10:23 AM GMT
is this the standard 5 minuet argument or the value for money 20 min ruck ?
Report strontium March 15, 2021 11:13 AM GMT
Talking about the actual race, I would think For Pleasure is likley to ensure a strong pace (see his C&D win in November).
Report Cash Is King March 15, 2021 3:25 PM GMT
How many horses win or finish placed in the Champion bumper and then win the following year's Supreme? "Not many" is the answer.

Champagne Fever and Al Ferof are two that spring to mind but many have tried and failed.

Even though this year's Supreme looks substandard, I wouldn't want to back Appreciate It at odds as skinny as 11/8.
Report Andymca March 15, 2021 3:35 PM GMT
The oppositiom may be substandrad, but it is very harsh to call Appreciate It substandard
Report irishone March 15, 2021 6:00 PM GMT
Very poor record agreed Cash. Going back to Montelado in 1992 who won the Supreme a year later it is interesting to note that only Champagne Fever (2012 was the only other winner). Many tried and failed of course. Cousin Vinny (5th 2008)  ,Cue Card (4th 2011) , Ballyandy (4th 2016 the last to try to win both) amongst them . More boringly 10 champion bumper winners tried to do the double since 1992 , 7 failed and only Dunguib managed a place (3rd 2010). The Ballymore appears a better bet !
Report Cash Is King March 15, 2021 6:23 PM GMT
Andymca - Appreciate It is not substandard but the race, when viewed as a whole, most certainly is.
Report Hibore March 15, 2021 7:21 PM GMT
FOYLESWAR 15 Mar 21 11:23

is this the standard 5 minuet argument or the value for money 20 min ruck ?

That’s a cracker Foyle. LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Andymca March 15, 2021 7:53 PM GMT
Totally agree cash is king
Report Number9 March 15, 2021 8:16 PM GMT
9 beaten favs in the last 10 runnings
Report differentdrum March 16, 2021 1:29 PM GMT
As I alluded to in the opening post I haven't heard so much nonsense spouted against a solid favourite in the build up to a Festival.

The horse has now done the talking and won in a hack canter.

How wrong those clever dicks were. Fortunately, plenty of punters ignored them.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 16, 2021 1:42 PM GMT
well done differentdrum Cool
Report penzance March 16, 2021 1:46 PM GMT
Report paulo47 March 17, 2021 12:48 PM GMT
From the man who said ' Guard your dreams is only running in this because he cant get into anything else with a decent chance of winning it ' Dont criticise others , we can all talk nonsense and be clever dicks or otherwise , they are only opinions -errrrrr Coral Cup favourite .
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