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Cheltenham Festival
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envoi has carried all before him in bumpers and novice hurdles and will be a hot fav w in whatever festival race he turns up in ,ballymore looks the likeliest on betting obviously gonna be popular and already been talked of as a banker by the world and his wife , can he be beaten and if ya not into shorties whats the value in the race ?
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His last run upped in trip didn't have the same feel to it as his previous performances in the closing stages for me.
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The books seldom get a result in this race even going back to the sun alliance days
Mister Donovan Ten plus Regal ambition Crystal spirt Thetford forest Danoli Putty road Milael dhaguenet Peddlers cross Simonsig Istabraq French holly Barton Monsignor The new one Faugheen Yorkhill Samcro All strong all won |
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gonna be around 5/4 as things stand ,if he runs and wins this weekend he could be odds on , the 1st thing i look for in these circs is one or 2 at decent prices to cause an upset ,many thinking this one is past the post already so some big prices available if ya think it can be legged over , asterion forlange has plenty to find but cost a packet has winning form and could be anything but he is also entered in spuds race think i would rather have 2 or 3 at big prices and have already backed asterion and looking for another against the fav.
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Not a big fan of the horse asterion beat at naas ,one who may run is easywork who I thought went under the radar at limerick on Boxing Day because of faugheen,he looked very good to me ,quite a few others also that have also shown plenty of ability and can improve.
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Nico thinks Shishkin needs stepping up. His next race is about more experience and to tell him one way or another. He is more likely to run in the supreme as it stands today but a lot more likely to run in the Ballymore than the markets currently suggest.
There are many other fascinating and talented potential rivals many of which have alternative options. The only certain thing for me is that the market will soon look very different to how it looks currently. I think we will see a steady shortening in the price of the big getaway. TSHas already got hold of it. They think Sporting John will benefit from a step up and if he beats MD at Exeter his price will plummet. I think Fiddler will end up here and TBB with MD and HS book ending the pair. Easywork was very impressive lto and Chantry House next entry should be taken very seriously. Take a look at the in running comments and the field he was up against in his ptp when he unseated. The markets suggest he is heading for supreme but he clearly has the stamina for Ballymore and his form keeps working out. In a world where 4 or 5 of these 7 turn up with EA then I’d want a lot bigger than 5/4. |
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Agreed, but the masses have already decided he's the next big thing which he still could be of course, but although his last performance was good enough but not a knock your eye out great the market reacts as if it has been just that and confirmation bias takes over.
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They can all be turned over, But I wouldn't bet against him and will focus on the 27 other races when looking for double figure priced runners who have a chance of winning.
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He reminds me of Faugheen who had a string of 1’s next to his name before taking in what was then the Neptune.
A few that could of got close look best in big fields such as Andy Dufresne so will go supreme, while others like Easywork and asterion forlonge may prefer right handed in my opinion. Sporting John could be interesting, but I assume Hobbs has Thyme Hill for this. Challow hurdle winners have a poor record at the festival. The big breakaway won’t get another run which is a big negative. Shiskin May prefer a flat track. Chantry house could be a threat, but I have a feeling they will go supreme with the other two Jp ones. So a third favourite backed antepost for me! Hate backing favourites, but don’t mind if they win! ;) |
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ENGLAND..... you mention poor record of the Challow..... what are your views of the Lawlor and Royal Bond?
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Shiskin jocked up for Sandown on Sat over 2 miles , thought it was going to be Sydney Banks at Huntingdon over 2 1/2 , may or may not mean alot.
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Yes trainer wants the softest race he can which whether you agree or not is his tendency so he is giving him both entries and he will wait to see entries. I think it’s more to jump some more hurdles and for jockey to get more data points I wouldn’t read anything else into it. I am clueless when it comes to Irish PTP but when I had Shishkin on my mind I Googled lingstown. Apologies for those that already know but according to all the sites It is a stiff and galloping track with a climb and obviously descent. Jamie Codd reckons it is a real test and horses often finish very tired. This data point and how he finished off his race the other day would suggest the hill will hold no fears for this fella.
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Hey Milton, I must admit you had me delve a little deeper into the trends for this.
To be fair 6 of the last 7 Challow winners have been placed in this, so Thyme Hill could be a place only bet on the exchange. The Royal Bond winners has only turned up in this 3 times in recent times, with two unplaced, and Hardy Eustace the only winner. Mikail D’haguenet won the lawlor in 2009 and what is now the Ballymore. Three other winners tried to do the double since, and were unplaced. This race seems to throw up winners from a lot of different previous races rather than a specific tried and tested one. |
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I would run EA in the Supreme, not impreesed at all his last run, not see him being beat over 2m, been baciking one for Ballymore at big prices, cant let on yet though!! But have been told Ballymore is the target
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Another trend I just stumbled upon was Nicky Henderson from 31 runners in this race, only having one winner and three placed horses!!!
Bad news for Shiskin and Chantry House backers should they turn up here. Great information about Shiskin winning a P2P on a very stiff track by the way. I’d hope it turns up at sandown just to Frank that P2P course form rather than Huntingdon. |
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Royal bond winners in the sun alliance hurdle/ ballymore only two did the double istabraq and hardy eustace,like a butterfly won the supreme novice.recent times very poor.
Slaney/ lawlors,only mikael dhaguenet won both Challow none although forest sun did go on to win the supreme novice hurdle |
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The golden cygnet opening race Saturday produced nicanor who went on to do the double in the ballymore he beat the challow winner of that season the great denman.
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Race 3 Sunday brave Inca has the standout record for horses doing the double
Danoli Istabraq Like a butterfly supreme Brave Inca supreme Champagne fever supreme Vautour supreme Samcro Klassical dream supreme |
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Arguably the best horse to win the above race isn’t even on that list.
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Apparently EA participation at Dublin is contingent on a work out this morning. Anyone got a view on how the market will react if he does/doesn’t run?
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surely he will drift a bit if not making the dublin weekender !
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can only be a negative if he dont run ,looked on oddschecker late last night and he was 7 /1 to win at the weekend .
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still 7s , says it all !
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I kind of know where Duffy is coming from with his view on the horses last performance,I know things haven’t gone the way expected with samcro but I saw him at navan and leopardstown in his novice season and both performances had a wow factor to it,however in fairness to envoi he has probably beaten better horses .
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Looks the real deal to me, anyway
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He wont run this weekend.
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EA has been 6's 7's for both races all week, that tells me that there really hasn't been much intention to run at all.
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Can somebody tell me how to process this because I genuinely can’t figure it out. Had they just chosen not to run I would likely have concluded aba and FR were being prioritised and not batted an eyelid as this would have been consistent with what the markets (particularly PP ....... again) were telling us. But having been given the information that his attendance was contingent on today’s workout has me completely confused recognising Duffys completely reasonable perspective.
Doesn’t this open up the possibility of people reading things (rightly or wrongly) into the horses well being. Somebody must be joining the dots much better than I am. Perhaps we will get a little more information soon? |
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Agree with milton that the workout comment is completely at odds to his price through-out the week.
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I think why run EV if his trainer has his number 1 choice for Cheltenham over this distance running, and another? The market is indicating EV is more likely for the Ballymore/Neptune over 2m 4f; the "contingent on today's workout" statement was probably a polite way of saying very unlikely.
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^^^ Finally, Someone who gets it.
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He'd have been worked last weekend if he was running next weekend, Few easy days and half speed work leading into a race, You open them up a week before that way you get 2 or 3 days to see if any niggles come to light (Legs, Back ect ect)
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Ok this is beyond my iq as I don’t understand your answer in relation to my post. I am not trying to be awkward I am just trying to understand and your post hasn’t clarified for me (almost certainly my fault) he was working today for a race in 3/4 days time and the trainer specifically stated that the purpose of this mornings work was to determine if he would run at the weekend (‘depending on how he works in the morning’) was the exact quote .... and yet the market was telling us that PP already knew he wasn’t going to run. He could have worked like Pegasus on steroids and they knew he wasn’t going to run.
Surely it could be implied or assumed by the general public following what the trainer stated that if he doesn’t run it is because he didn’t work well this morning.......... So perhaps you are saying that he worked last week and it didn’t go well for whatever reason which PP were told about and the fact that you stated he wouldn’t run at the weekend is either because they made the story about working this morning up and he has had a problem since last weekend or he did work this morning and you were told it didn’t go well. |
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envoi allen wasnt in the workout the other 2 were , both or one must have pleased elliot hence no need to run envoi
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So EA did not need to run with regards to his prep for Cheltenham.
Has he another race planned for him?or going straight to the festival? Must admit I am as confused as Miltons seems to be, reading through thie last few posts here.!! Working today to determine running at the weekend??!!! Still same sort of price for the Ballymore,so I guess all is ok with the horse. |
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It just gets better and better ... it’s the gift that keeps on giving so the work EA was doing this morning to determine whether he ran at the weekend involved two horses neither of which was EA...
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sorry i should have put a ? on the end of that sentence below .
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No worries Foyles .... I think we need your namesake to solve this one.
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mabe i should change it to clousea !
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