envoi allen can he be turned over ?

His last run upped in trip didn't have the same feel to it as his previous performances in the closing stages for me.

The books seldom get a result in this race even going back to the sun alliance days

Mister Donovan
Ten plus
Regal ambition
Crystal spirt
Thetford forest
Danoli
Putty road
Milael dhaguenet
Peddlers cross
Simonsig
Istabraq
French holly
Barton
Monsignor
The new one
Faugheen
Yorkhill
Samcro

All strong all won

gonna be around 5/4 as things stand ,if he runs and wins this weekend he could be odds on , the 1st thing i look for in these circs is one or 2 at decent prices to cause an upset ,many thinking this one is past the post already so some big prices available if ya think it can be legged over , asterion forlange has plenty to find but cost a packet has winning form and  could be anything but he is also entered in spuds race think i would rather have 2 or 3 at big prices and have already backed asterion and looking for another against the fav.

Not a big fan of the horse asterion beat at naas ,one who may run is easywork who I thought went under the radar at limerick on Boxing Day because of faugheen,he looked very good to me ,quite a few others also that have also shown plenty of ability and can improve.

Nico thinks Shishkin needs stepping up. His next race is about more experience and to tell him one way or another. He is more likely to run in the supreme as it stands today but a lot more likely to run in the Ballymore than the markets currently suggest.

There are many other fascinating and talented potential rivals many of which have alternative options. The only certain thing for me is that the market will soon look very different to how it looks currently.

I think we will see a steady shortening in the price of the big getaway. TSHas already got hold of it. They think Sporting John will benefit from a step up and if he beats MD at Exeter his price will plummet.

I think Fiddler will end up here and TBB with MD and HS book ending the pair.

Easywork was very impressive lto and Chantry House next entry should be taken very seriously. Take a look at the in running comments and the field he was up against in his ptp when he unseated. The markets suggest he is heading for supreme but he clearly has the stamina for Ballymore and his form keeps working out.

In a world where 4 or 5 of these 7 turn up with EA then I’d want a lot bigger than 5/4.

Agreed, but the masses have already decided he's the next big thing which he still could be of course, but although his last performance was good enough but not a knock your eye out great the market reacts as if it has been just that and confirmation bias takes over.

They can all be turned over, But I wouldn't bet against him and will focus on the 27 other races when looking for double figure priced runners who have a chance of winning.

He reminds me of Faugheen who had a string of 1’s next to his name before taking in what was then the Neptune.
A few that could of got close look best in big fields such as Andy Dufresne so will go supreme, while others like Easywork and asterion forlonge may prefer right handed in my opinion.
Sporting John could be interesting, but I assume Hobbs has Thyme Hill for this. Challow hurdle winners have a poor record at the festival.
The big breakaway won’t get another run which is a big negative.
Shiskin May prefer a flat track.
Chantry house could be a threat, but I have a feeling they will go supreme with the other two Jp ones.

So a third favourite backed antepost for me! Hate backing favourites, but don’t mind if they win! ;)

ENGLAND..... you mention poor record of the Challow..... what are your views of the Lawlor and Royal Bond?

Shiskin jocked up for Sandown on Sat over 2 miles , thought it was going to be Sydney Banks at Huntingdon over 2  1/2 , may or may not mean alot.

Yes trainer wants the softest race he can which whether you agree or not is his tendency so he is giving him both entries and he will wait to see entries. I think it’s more to jump some more hurdles and for jockey to get more data points I wouldn’t read anything else into it. I am clueless when it comes to Irish PTP but when I had Shishkin on my mind I Googled lingstown. Apologies for those that already know but according to all the sites It is a stiff and galloping track with a climb and obviously descent. Jamie Codd reckons it is a real test and horses often finish very tired. This data point and how he finished off his race the other day would suggest the hill will hold no fears for this fella.

Hey Milton, I must admit you had me delve a little deeper into the trends for this.
To be fair 6 of the last 7 Challow winners have been placed in this, so Thyme Hill could be a place only bet on the exchange.

The Royal Bond winners has only turned up in this 3 times in recent times, with two unplaced, and Hardy Eustace the only winner.

Mikail D’haguenet won the lawlor in 2009 and what is now the Ballymore. Three other winners tried to do the double since, and were unplaced.

This race seems to throw up winners from a lot of different previous races rather than a specific tried and tested one.

I would run EA in the Supreme, not impreesed at all his last run, not see him being beat over 2m, been baciking one for Ballymore at big prices, cant let on yet though!! But have been told Ballymore is the target

Another trend I just stumbled upon was Nicky Henderson from 31 runners in this race, only having one winner and three placed horses!!!
Bad news for Shiskin and Chantry House backers should they turn up here.

Great information about Shiskin winning a P2P on a very stiff track by the way. I’d hope it turns up at sandown just to Frank that P2P course form rather than Huntingdon.

Royal bond winners in the sun alliance hurdle/ ballymore only two did the double istabraq and hardy eustace,like a butterfly won the supreme novice.recent times very poor.

Slaney/ lawlors,only mikael dhaguenet won both

Challow none although forest sun did go on to win the supreme novice hurdle

The golden cygnet opening race Saturday produced nicanor who went on to do the double in the ballymore he beat the challow winner of that season the great denman.

Race 3 Sunday brave Inca has the standout record for horses doing the double

Danoli
Istabraq
Like a butterfly supreme
Brave Inca supreme
Champagne fever supreme
Vautour supreme
Samcro
Klassical dream supreme

Arguably the best horse to win the above race isn’t even on that list.

Apparently EA participation at Dublin is contingent on a work out this morning. Anyone got a view on how the market will react if he does/doesn’t run?

surely he will drift a bit if not making the dublin weekender !

can only be a negative if he dont run ,looked on oddschecker  late last night and he was 7 /1 to win at the weekend .

still 7s , says it all !

I kind of know where Duffy is coming from with his view on the horses last performance,I know things haven’t gone the way expected with samcro but I saw him at navan and leopardstown in his novice season and both performances had a wow factor to it,however in fairness to envoi he has probably beaten better horses .

Looks the real deal to me, anyway

He wont run this weekend.

EA has been 6's 7's for both races all week, that tells me that there really hasn't been much intention to run at all.

Can somebody tell me how to process this because I genuinely can’t figure it out. Had they just chosen not to run I would likely have concluded aba and FR were being prioritised and not batted an eyelid as this would have been consistent with what the markets (particularly PP ....... again) were telling us. But having been given the information that his attendance was contingent on today’s workout has me completely confused recognising Duffys  completely reasonable perspective.

Doesn’t this open up the possibility of people reading things (rightly or wrongly) into the horses well being. Somebody must be joining the dots much better than I am. Perhaps we will get a little more information soon?

Agree with milton that the workout comment is completely at odds to his price through-out the week.

I think why run EV if his trainer has his number 1 choice for Cheltenham over this distance running, and another? The market is indicating EV is more likely for the Ballymore/Neptune over 2m 4f; the "contingent on today's workout" statement was probably a polite way of saying very unlikely.

^^^ Finally, Someone who gets it.

He'd have been worked last weekend if he was running next weekend, Few easy days and half speed work leading into a race, You open them up a week before that way you get 2 or 3 days to see if any niggles come to light (Legs, Back ect ect)

Ok this is beyond my iq as I don’t understand your answer in relation to my post. I am not trying to be awkward I am just trying to understand and your post hasn’t clarified for me (almost certainly my fault) he was working today for a race in 3/4 days time and the trainer specifically stated that the purpose of this mornings work was to determine if he would run at the weekend (‘depending on how he works in the morning’) was the exact quote .... and yet the market was telling us that PP already knew he wasn’t going to run. He could have worked like Pegasus on steroids and they knew he wasn’t going to run.

Surely it could be implied or assumed by the general public following what the trainer stated that  if he doesn’t run it is because he didn’t work well this morning..........

So perhaps you are saying that he worked last week and it didn’t go well for whatever reason which PP were told about and the fact that you stated he wouldn’t run at the weekend is either because they made the story about working this morning up and he has had a problem since last weekend or he did work this morning and you were told it didn’t go well.

envoi allen wasnt in the workout the other 2 were , both or one must have pleased elliot hence no need to run envoi

So EA did not need to run with regards to his prep for Cheltenham.
Has he another race planned for him?or going straight to the festival?

Must admit I am as confused as Miltons seems to be, reading through thie last few posts here.!!
Working today to determine running at the weekend??!!!

Still same sort of price for the Ballymore,so I guess all is ok with the horse.

It just gets better and better ... it’s the gift that keeps on giving so the work EA was doing this morning to determine whether he ran at the weekend involved two horses neither of which was EA...

sorry i should have put a ? on the end of that sentence below .

No worries Foyles .... I think we need your namesake to solve this one.

mabe i should change it to clousea !

F~~k me, You people tie yourself in knots over very simple things.

I really shouldn't try and explain what the word "Work" means in racing and then how "a piece of work" would be done according to a timescale regarding a run.

May as well be talking to geese.

No you should not try and explain what work means in racing etc,we would all know that!!

The point here (for me anyway)is the bookies knew he weren't running according to the books,(PP seem to know everything!!)and the trainer said he will run depending on a workout.
This then leads people into thinking hang on,he's now not running......is he ok?

To be honest as far as the horse is concerned,I don't think he wins at the festival, but all this stuff does affect prices of others,or can do.

Thanks gut feeling. There have been many occasions where posters have asked questions and rather than judge whether they should or shouldn't already understand the answer I and other posters have attempted to help. Each to their own no worries but Budd is right there is a bigger picture here and I completely understand and respect your loyalty I was more hoping somebody with a different association might be able to help. Good luck sir

What you should appreciate gut feeling is that most of us including myself are fun punters and are quite new to racing ,obviously people like you have the game by the boll.x and have many years experience,perhaps you should go easy on those not so clever.

The point here (for me anyway)is the bookies knew he weren't running according to the books,(PP seem to know everything!!)and the trainer said he will run depending on a workout.
This then leads people into thinking hang on,he's now not running......is he ok?

Like I say Budd, You over complicate things, Trainers are asked questions all the time, They give answers, Mostly ones they already know the answer too, Trying to read into them something that isn't there is pointless, Best to not listen and as you alluded too, Watch the markets, The truth is usually there.
As for explaining something like what "Work" actually means I did that, Look what it led too, Total confusion.

Miltons, You won't get people with actual knowledge posting here, The place is viewed as somewhere to be avoided by nearly all involved in racing, Most left a long time ago.

It's awkward to speak on here if you have a racing pass as all your details once you receive a pass are passed onto the BHA & they have BF monitor your exchange / sportsbook accounts, Whether that monitoring applies to the forum I'm not sure but most cut themselves off at that point as it's simpler.

I used to enjoy this place but nowdays I find it not really my best use of spare time hence I don't say much, But if I said more I could compromise my anonymity so I can't be anything but basic / direct with my input, To spell everything out which may only be known by a handful of people would cut me out of certain loops.

I wish you well for March.

What you should appreciate gut feeling is that most of us including myself are fun punters and are quite new to racing ,obviously people like you have the game by the boll.x and have many years experience,perhaps you should go easy on those not so clever.



Oh I doubt I'm the smartest in the room Foxy, As for having anything by the b@ll@cks, I can only hold my own and they ain't making me rich.

Its not me over complicating things, its me not happy with some comments from trainers and certain bookies apparently being in the know.
Oh,i learnt long ago to be wary of trainers comments,(although have got to know as much as one can which trainers are more worth taking notice of), and have mentioned that on various threads over the years on here,probably far too many!! But for some on here, as Foxy says who are fun punters, it can make a big difference to their enjoyment, and swaying their bets.
And it can manipulate markets.

Re your work explaining, that did not confuse me at all, i understand how all that works.
I was confused with the trainers comments re working and running...depending! and bookies already knowing.
Best not say anything imo, better than an apparent untruth.
But like we know, trainers comments are not to be trusted at times.

I am still confused has there been any official comments about yesterday’s workout?

Thanks for explaining gut feeling. I understand your dilemma much better and appreciate you taking the time to explain
Personally I hope you find s way to stick around and good luck for March

I think the main thing to grasp here is to be guided with what the market says, if the odds for him are way too big and the trainer however suggests that he might run, don't muse over why he said it as the market says different, just disregard his comment, don't bother yourself about it and don't spend too much time on why he said it.

Just think to yourself, "He's talking total b0ll0x" and leave it at that.

The market speaks louder than words ever can from owner or trainer eg Altiorgate, Vautour (Ryanair), etc. Money talks!

Duffy.... it was never about that .... there is a much bigger picture than whether we were capable of reading the market and therefore able to put the comments into context. Of course we were. This is about punters continuing to be the red headed step child. It’s like we get hit and just take it over and over again. Worse than that we even quietly admire the people that are hitting us. Defending , justifying, enjoying the sparring aren’t we clever being able to separate the wheat from the chaff .

The RP had big headline about EA participation depending on critical workout. THEY knew when they printed that that he wasn’t going to run. Effing grow a pair ask the trainer in which case why is the best novice hurdler around 7-1. As a punter I want them to be journalists and not note takers. This is just an adjective and nothing against GE who I happen to think is a truly remarkable trainer.The whole thing is so psychophantic and subservient it is pathetic. Even tv celebrities who claim to look out for the punter are so far up top trainers and owners rectums that they let everything slide. God forbid we actually ask a tough question.

I can barely get a bet on. And we are now subsidising their lost FOBT revenue. Anyone that gambles is addicted. Jockeys hate us because we have never ridden a horse, professionals hate us because we are clueless and naive and not in the know. We are worse than Millwall.

Blimey,what a post, wish I had written that.
Absolutely agree with all of that, and imo about time someone came on here and said it as it is.
Hats off Miltons.

Oi,miltons, I am a Millwall fan, we are lovely people, if you do not say sorry, I am going to smash your face in!!

Excellent ... while I have you would you tolerate a guess as to who your ballymore dark horse is

Chantry House.

If correct that is outstanding information sir

Take it easy Teddy Sheringham!

More like Terry Hurlock!!

Just looked him up (no offence)..... savage barnet

Never heard of him.  Norman Hunter, yes!

I don't hate you, Miltons.

I do try to help, As I said two days ago he isn't running, Finally confirmed.

Anyhow good luck for the weekend.

Confirmed for the Ballymore/Neptune; no further run needed (sufficiently experienced), but straight to the Festival.

Despite all the b0ll0cks about a run depending on a workout.

Yep, confirmation of something we all knew anyway.

I know you don’t gutfeeling and I know you try and help and it likely doesn’t come across this way but it is appreciated. I suspect you are the exception not the rule and I can assure you it wasn’t aimed at you personally. As I said I hope that you continue on here as you have a different and valuable perspective.

Personally I don't get offended or bothered about this type of scenario, I assume that we all know the score, although I would like a journo to sit there one day and tell Elliott squarely, "Hey Gordon, let me help you out, your horse is not going to run at the week end regardless of any workout and we all know it"

Of course it's wrong though whether we know the score or not, as budd said earlier some casual punters might not know.

back to the question ? whats the value ? and why !

Well if deptford is correct and CH is pitching up here then he is significant value at 20s. His ptp form is very strong. He beat edwardstone in his bumper and a subsequent grade 2 winner in his novice hurdle.

Of course it's wrong though whether we know the score or not, as budd said earlier some casual punters might not know.

Casual punters wouldn't care though, Even if you told them what was said by who about what horse they'd look at you like you had 3 heads. People online indulging themselves in lexical semantics regarding a trainer quote aren't really doing anything for a casual punter, It's just typical forumite stuff dressed up as some struggle for the little man.

Anyhow back to the point of the thread.

Outsider for the race I'd consider is Sporting John at 20/1.

Harry Senior, Bullioniare, Kissesforkatie, Eritage all won nto for his debut at Exeter when he couldn't have won any easier, Won just as easy carrying a penalty again at Exeter next time out, hard to gauge if he is Grade 1 class currently but Harry Senior did win the ballymore trial last weekend and he was beaten without being asked a question so it's not unreasonable to think Sporting john is at least a grade 2 performer.

I'd be happier seeing him in the Supreme tbh but if he showed up here I'd have a ew and a W/O fav bet on the day.

Well I think...sorry know,its wrong,whatever affect it has on casual punters or indeed seasoned punters,which was what I have been saying.

Like your last bit though, am on SJ any race at a nice price, and hope we see him soon.

Like I've said too, Seasoned punters know what to expect, Casuals don't know nor care.

If journalists are lazy enough to type it up or sycophantic enough to not question it then that's on them.

Anyhow sure we have better things to do than pick over something so trivial.

I just think SJ is very overlooked currently but once the preview circuit gets going I can see him being put up all over the place as the form is starting to stack up, Also it will sound good when repeated out loud as they reel off winner after winner that he dispatched comfortably.
The any race bet could be the right bet to have as I haven't the slightest where they're going but I'll follow him regardless.

Best of luck for the weekend & for March Budd.

Fair enough Gut,like you say we have plenty to pick over.

Yeh,its a bet I like,and probably overlooked as not been seen for a while,but like you say their is some nice form revolving around him.

Best to you too.

Also agree re SJ. Another whose form keeps working out. The WH any race for the novices has been an absolute god send this year for me and topped up with single race on the exchanges.

One at a huge price on here that might be worth a couple of quid. Botox Has. Has course form, desperate for a step up in trip, already as experienced as many of the older horses. Trainer has suggested this as a possibility and has a front runner for the triumph. There are obvious negatives but only to be expected at 180 or so

Duly noted,love these bets,dont come off very often of course,but lovely when they do.
Cheers Miltons.

Looks like deptford may well have got it right with CH  as trainer stated thinks he may need to step up another half mile. Entered Newbury Saturday.

something to conjure with! now if envoi allen did go for the champion hurdle, and it is looking a lot more winnable than it was before last weeks mullins defections so it could be under consideration , the markets for the supreme , ballymore and champion would be thrown wide open as horses switch left right and center , what price would envoi be put into the champ mmarket if declared to run ?  my guess would be around 5/2 -3/1 ish  and would he have a realistic chance of winning a what we are being led to think  is a weak champion in your opinions ?

EA will only run against those of similar experience, and not against season hurdlers. Also, connections will not want to make the same mistake with him as they did with Samcro as his future is over fences. Also, he'll need to give 7lbs to Epatante, Verdana Blue, BDD and Honeysuckle.

But, he's no bomb-proof in The Neptune; Supreme if the ground is very soft.

Not a horse on the planet could give 7 lb to bdd

Well let's hope she runs in the CH or the Stayers then.
That way we could see if you are right with that confident statement.
Personally I think PP wins the stayers with or without her,and PH for one will beat her in the CH.

Hope your right with ph bud

I do think he will be a lot better in March,breathing op should help.
Finished his race off well in the Triumph,I think he will do the same in the CH.

Triumph hurdle form got a boost yesterday and the runner up last March is much better than his leopardstown run at Christmas.

BDD will of been trained all season for 2m4/3m so surely won’t have the toe for the champion hurdle?
I assume they will of trained her with more stamina than speed work?

BDD had chase form unlike Annie Power who'd never run over fences, but only hurdles. And, the latter was outstayed by the winner of the Stayers despite receiving 7lbs.

I think BDD is more likely to run in The Mares than Stayers given the presence of Paisley Park. Conversely, Honeysuckle - if BDD takes the more probable Mares route - The Champion Hurdle esp if the going is easier (usually is on 1st day) unless the weather intervenes. Whichever race there is Epatante or BDD to content with.