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F~~k me, You people tie yourself in knots over very simple things.
I really shouldn't try and explain what the word "Work" means in racing and then how "a piece of work" would be done according to a timescale regarding a run. May as well be talking to geese. |
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No you should not try and explain what work means in racing etc,we would all know that!!
The point here (for me anyway)is the bookies knew he weren't running according to the books,(PP seem to know everything!!)and the trainer said he will run depending on a workout. This then leads people into thinking hang on,he's now not running......is he ok? To be honest as far as the horse is concerned,I don't think he wins at the festival, but all this stuff does affect prices of others,or can do. |
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Thanks gut feeling. There have been many occasions where posters have asked questions and rather than judge whether they should or shouldn't already understand the answer I and other posters have attempted to help. Each to their own no worries but Budd is right there is a bigger picture here and I completely understand and respect your loyalty I was more hoping somebody with a different association might be able to help. Good luck sir
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What you should appreciate gut feeling is that most of us including myself are fun punters and are quite new to racing ,obviously people like you have the game by the boll.x and have many years experience,perhaps you should go easy on those not so clever.
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The point here (for me anyway)is the bookies knew he weren't running according to the books,(PP seem to know everything!!)and the trainer said he will run depending on a workout.
This then leads people into thinking hang on,he's now not running......is he ok? Like I say Budd, You over complicate things, Trainers are asked questions all the time, They give answers, Mostly ones they already know the answer too, Trying to read into them something that isn't there is pointless, Best to not listen and as you alluded too, Watch the markets, The truth is usually there. As for explaining something like what "Work" actually means I did that, Look what it led too, Total confusion. Miltons, You won't get people with actual knowledge posting here, The place is viewed as somewhere to be avoided by nearly all involved in racing, Most left a long time ago. It's awkward to speak on here if you have a racing pass as all your details once you receive a pass are passed onto the BHA & they have BF monitor your exchange / sportsbook accounts, Whether that monitoring applies to the forum I'm not sure but most cut themselves off at that point as it's simpler. I used to enjoy this place but nowdays I find it not really my best use of spare time hence I don't say much, But if I said more I could compromise my anonymity so I can't be anything but basic / direct with my input, To spell everything out which may only be known by a handful of people would cut me out of certain loops. I wish you well for March. |
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What you should appreciate gut feeling is that most of us including myself are fun punters and are quite new to racing ,obviously people like you have the game by the boll.x and have many years experience,perhaps you should go easy on those not so clever.
![]() ![]() Oh I doubt I'm the smartest in the room Foxy, As for having anything by the b@ll@cks, I can only hold my own and they ain't making me rich. |
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Its not me over complicating things, its me not happy with some comments from trainers and certain bookies apparently being in the know.
Oh,i learnt long ago to be wary of trainers comments,(although have got to know as much as one can which trainers are more worth taking notice of), and have mentioned that on various threads over the years on here,probably far too many!! But for some on here, as Foxy says who are fun punters, it can make a big difference to their enjoyment, and swaying their bets. And it can manipulate markets. Re your work explaining, that did not confuse me at all, i understand how all that works. I was confused with the trainers comments re working and running...depending! and bookies already knowing. Best not say anything imo, better than an apparent untruth. But like we know, trainers comments are not to be trusted at times. |
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I am still confused has there been any official comments about yesterday’s workout?
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Thanks for explaining gut feeling. I understand your dilemma much better and appreciate you taking the time to explain
Personally I hope you find s way to stick around and good luck for March |
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I think the main thing to grasp here is to be guided with what the market says, if the odds for him are way too big and the trainer however suggests that he might run, don't muse over why he said it as the market says different, just disregard his comment, don't bother yourself about it and don't spend too much time on why he said it.
Just think to yourself, "He's talking total b0ll0x" and leave it at that. |
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The market speaks louder than words ever can from owner or trainer eg Altiorgate, Vautour (Ryanair), etc. Money talks!
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Duffy.... it was never about that .... there is a much bigger picture than whether we were capable of reading the market and therefore able to put the comments into context. Of course we were. This is about punters continuing to be the red headed step child. It’s like we get hit and just take it over and over again. Worse than that we even quietly admire the people that are hitting us. Defending , justifying, enjoying the sparring aren’t we clever being able to separate the wheat from the chaff .
The RP had big headline about EA participation depending on critical workout. THEY knew when they printed that that he wasn’t going to run. Effing grow a pair ask the trainer in which case why is the best novice hurdler around 7-1. As a punter I want them to be journalists and not note takers. This is just an adjective and nothing against GE who I happen to think is a truly remarkable trainer.The whole thing is so psychophantic and subservient it is pathetic. Even tv celebrities who claim to look out for the punter are so far up top trainers and owners rectums that they let everything slide. God forbid we actually ask a tough question. I can barely get a bet on. And we are now subsidising their lost FOBT revenue. Anyone that gambles is addicted. Jockeys hate us because we have never ridden a horse, professionals hate us because we are clueless and naive and not in the know. We are worse than Millwall. |
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Blimey,what a post, wish I had written that.
Absolutely agree with all of that, and imo about time someone came on here and said it as it is. Hats off Miltons. |
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Oi,miltons, I am a Millwall fan, we are lovely people, if you do not say sorry, I am going to smash your face in!!
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Excellent ... while I have you would you tolerate a guess as to who your ballymore dark horse is
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Chantry House.
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If correct that is outstanding information sir
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Take it easy Teddy Sheringham!
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More like Terry Hurlock!!
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Just looked him up (no offence)..... savage barnet
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Never heard of him. Norman Hunter, yes!
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I don't hate you, Miltons.
I do try to help, As I said two days ago he isn't running, Finally confirmed. Anyhow good luck for the weekend. |
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Confirmed for the Ballymore/Neptune; no further run needed (sufficiently experienced), but straight to the Festival.
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Despite all the b0ll0cks about a run depending on a workout.
Yep, confirmation of something we all knew anyway. |
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I know you don’t gutfeeling and I know you try and help and it likely doesn’t come across this way but it is appreciated. I suspect you are the exception not the rule and I can assure you it wasn’t aimed at you personally. As I said I hope that you continue on here as you have a different and valuable perspective.
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Personally I don't get offended or bothered about this type of scenario, I assume that we all know the score, although I would like a journo to sit there one day and tell Elliott squarely, "Hey Gordon, let me help you out, your horse is not going to run at the week end regardless of any workout and we all know it"
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Of course it's wrong though whether we know the score or not, as budd said earlier some casual punters might not know.
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back to the question ? whats the value ? and why !
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Well if deptford is correct and CH is pitching up here then he is significant value at 20s. His ptp form is very strong. He beat edwardstone in his bumper and a subsequent grade 2 winner in his novice hurdle.
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Of course it's wrong though whether we know the score or not, as budd said earlier some casual punters might not know.
Casual punters wouldn't care though, Even if you told them what was said by who about what horse they'd look at you like you had 3 heads. People online indulging themselves in lexical semantics regarding a trainer quote aren't really doing anything for a casual punter, It's just typical forumite stuff dressed up as some struggle for the little man. Anyhow back to the point of the thread. Outsider for the race I'd consider is Sporting John at 20/1. Harry Senior, Bullioniare, Kissesforkatie, Eritage all won nto for his debut at Exeter when he couldn't have won any easier, Won just as easy carrying a penalty again at Exeter next time out, hard to gauge if he is Grade 1 class currently but Harry Senior did win the ballymore trial last weekend and he was beaten without being asked a question so it's not unreasonable to think Sporting john is at least a grade 2 performer. I'd be happier seeing him in the Supreme tbh but if he showed up here I'd have a ew and a W/O fav bet on the day. |
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Well I think...sorry know,its wrong,whatever affect it has on casual punters or indeed seasoned punters,which was what I have been saying.
Like your last bit though, am on SJ any race at a nice price, and hope we see him soon. |
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Like I've said too, Seasoned punters know what to expect, Casuals don't know nor care.
If journalists are lazy enough to type it up or sycophantic enough to not question it then that's on them. Anyhow sure we have better things to do than pick over something so trivial. I just think SJ is very overlooked currently but once the preview circuit gets going I can see him being put up all over the place as the form is starting to stack up, Also it will sound good when repeated out loud as they reel off winner after winner that he dispatched comfortably. The any race bet could be the right bet to have as I haven't the slightest where they're going but I'll follow him regardless. Best of luck for the weekend & for March Budd. |
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Fair enough Gut,like you say we have plenty to pick over.
Yeh,its a bet I like,and probably overlooked as not been seen for a while,but like you say their is some nice form revolving around him. Best to you too. |
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Also agree re SJ. Another whose form keeps working out. The WH any race for the novices has been an absolute god send this year for me and topped up with single race on the exchanges.
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One at a huge price on here that might be worth a couple of quid. Botox Has. Has course form, desperate for a step up in trip, already as experienced as many of the older horses. Trainer has suggested this as a possibility and has a front runner for the triumph. There are obvious negatives but only to be expected at 180 or so
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Duly noted,love these bets,dont come off very often of course,but lovely when they do.
Cheers Miltons. |
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Looks like deptford may well have got it right with CH as trainer stated thinks he may need to step up another half mile. Entered Newbury Saturday.
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something to conjure with! now if envoi allen did go for the champion hurdle, and it is looking a lot more winnable than it was before last weeks mullins defections so it could be under consideration , the markets for the supreme , ballymore and champion would be thrown wide open as horses switch left right and center , what price would envoi be put into the champ mmarket if declared to run ? my guess would be around 5/2 -3/1 ish and would he have a realistic chance of winning a what we are being led to think is a weak champion in your opinions ?
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