Gold Cup - who stays the trip ?

Took the same route as last year, didn't do him any harm did it!!

reigning champion,can't see how that
price is barmy,should be the jolly really.

ABP beat nothing of note at Tramore today so why him a couple of points 8 into 6 or 13/2 into 9/2? I can understand if he had run in the Savills Chase and won.

In the Gold Cup he started at 16/1 (2nd string) and beat Anibale Fly, BDM, CDO and Native River in the Gold Cup where the main protagonists either did not stay, ran poorly or fell; he was beaten fairly and squarely by Kemboy at Punchestown later.

would've won the GD1 at Punchestown aswell,
if he did'nt run out.
I'm  a Kemboy fan but this horse is
the rightfull fav atm,imv.
Been here done it.

Also he won his comeback run,Kemboy never.

Very possibly had ABP not run out. Then again Finian's Oscar was just getting into contention when he was carried out by ABP. But, one thing for sure though. ABP had always won races when the main protagonists underperformed or fell or against non-competitive opposition. After today ABP will probably go straight to the Gold Cup similar to last season.

An external factor outside racing meant Kemboy was unable to run in the Clonmel Chase last November like last season. But, this could be a blessing in disguise as with another race scheduled for Kemboy next month he'd not be without a run for nearly 3 months unlike last season. And, if Kemboy wins his next race (which is likely) he'd be fav for Cheltenham.

Impossible

Don Cossack used Thurles as his pre gold cup race it did him no harm it doesn’t have to be leopardstown,Newbury or Cheltenham, regarding Kemboy you seem happy for him to have won at Clonmel beating alpha des obeaux and a toi phil 3 lengths and 7 lengths getting 6 lb from those two grade 2/3 horses yet not wanting to give al boum photo much credit for beating a grade one winner 19 lengths giving 18lbs like Penzance I am also a Kemboy fan why wouldn’t you be however al boum photo deserves plenty of credit and at this stage is the right favourite for the gold cup and whilst like you I expect to see a better Kemboy next time probably at leopardstown in February I also expected to see a better klassical dream last week.

Kemboy would have been strip fitter and more competitive if he'd had a run prior to the Savills Chase eg at Clonmel or elsewhere. As such, his lack of fitness told coming to the last fence hence his defeat. Otherwise the result would have been different, I firmly believe, in the competitive Savills Chase - he'd have gone to Tramore instead. If so, he'd definitely have won, and odds shortened as a result.

I've little doubt come his next outing in early Feb he'd improve, and be ready for Cheltenham about 6 weeks later - the ideal time between races; last season it was over 10 weeks, a timeframe similar for ABP this season.

I believe a more competitive prep race for ABP rather than a 4-runner non-event at Tramore would be more appropriate esp if ABP is going straight to Cheltenham after; the big contraction in his price since surprised me too as he started 16/1 in the Gold Cup when winning, but beaten by Kemboy later.

I think it's an almighty ask for Klasssical Dream to be near his Supreme winning form come his next race or in March if he goes straight to Cheltenham.

Nit picking I know but his starting price was in fact 12/1 when he won the gold cup ,regarding his defeat at punchestown would not concern me to much there’s nothing between them really Walsh was inspired that day let’s just hope they both get there 100% fit and ready two really good horses both with time on there side as well.

So the Saville Chase has been rated now. Not pretty reading for those who saw this as the best Chase run so far this season.

Delta Work has been raised 6lbs to 169 and Monalee 5lbs to 168. That is a full 10lbs lower than CDO King George win. Road to respect was dropped 2lbs (167j with Percy left on 169 for some reason. Probably would be uproar if Percy wasn’t as good as all the Irish claim him to be.

Kemboy is given the benefit of the doubt and left on 177. Fair enough as it was his first run.

ABF won in an appalling time of nearly a minute over standard but won easily against shocking opposition. He on 174.

Santini 163, Native River 168, BDM 170 and Lost 173.

Next big race will be Cotswold where Santini, Lost, De Rasher and perhaps Native River run.

So you could argue that the only horses to run over 170+ this season are CDO, BDM and Lost. ABF unlikely but didn’t need to.

the ratings  account for form in the book ! what they dont or cant account for is improvement , most  of this lot can improve further , for obvious reasons the 2nd seasons chasers have the most room for improvement .will it be enough to catch up with the higher rated established chasers ? we dont know but it is possible and is what makes the game so unpredictable . imo of course .

Totally agree. I’m hoping for 10lbs improvement from Santini in the Cotswold. And even more in GC.

Call me an optimist which I'm not nevertheless, if Santini and Delta Work replicate their form of last season, and all things being equal eg same level of improvement, luck, etc, I'd have Santini over Delta Work any time, any day, why? The jumping of Delta Work is less consistent than Santini as proven in the JNwine.

Similarly, I'd have Kemboy over ABP on potential and last season form and achievement. My only concern is the performance of Kemboy at Cheltenham. But, I hope he'd be less fresh come next March.

What was the rating of BDM after he trounced Cue Card in the Betfair Chase 2 years ago?

I think ratings are correct in the main. Certain horses have optimum conditions at certain courses and trips. BDM and Cyrname prove that point.
However, not many horses show their best form around Cheltenham. ABP probably does with Lostintranslation, Santini and Percy.

Kemboy just doesn’t look in love with the place and has run very average there in his two festival finishes. That has to be a major concern.

Are there still any fans of Presenting Percy left? His rating of 172 for winning the RSA seemed high at the time and he is yet to get above 165 before or since. Monalee at 165-167 has a been a model of consistency (or do the ratings experts use him as the benchmark?) so on that basis the elevated rating for PP that day is justified.

RPR is just a moment in time assessment. There is no expectation built in that it will be carried forward at all. You have to use your own judgement as to whether it will be repeated or bettered in the future. OR is more of an attempt to measure a horses ability rather than a performance which of course is why it does not change race after race.  There are countless examples of horses that have wildly fluctuating RPRs with stand out performances often months sometimes many months apart. I look at it more of what a horse is capable of when it has a certain set of conditions (fitness, track, ground e.t.c.). I am neutral when it comes to PP but can see that there have been very few times when he has had a set of circumstances as positive as it did for the RSA and see no reason why if experiencing those circumstances again or even a better set of circumstances could not equal or even better that RPR.

The problem comes in when an OR is unduly influenced by one or two performances that are circumstance driven. Cyrname is the perfect example. I would expect his RPRs to fluctuate wildly based on circumstance which makes his OR practically irrelevant. This issue is exacerbated when a horse like Cyrname is used to benchmark other horses performance such as CDO in this years King George. Before we know it we have a quite compromised system. Ratings are ok as a guide but you have to overlay an awful lot of your own art and science to reach a reasonable judgement imo.

RPR is just a moment in time assessment. There is no expectation built in that it will be carried forward at all. You have to use your own judgement as to whether it will be repeated or bettered in the future. OR is more of an attempt to measure a horses ability rather than a performance which of course is why it does not change race after race.  There are countless examples of horses that have wildly fluctuating RPRs with stand out performances often months sometimes many months apart. I look at it more of what a horse is capable of when it has a certain set of conditions (fitness, track, ground e.t.c.). I am neutral when it comes to PP but can see that there have been very few times when he has had a set of circumstances as positive as it did for the RSA and see no reason why if experiencing those circumstances again or even a better set of circumstances could not equal or even better that RPR.

The problem comes in when an OR is unduly influenced by one or two performances that are circumstance driven. Cyrname is the perfect example. I would expect his RPRs to fluctuate wildly based on circumstance which makes his OR practically irrelevant. This issue is exacerbated when a horse like Cyrname is used to benchmark other horses performance such as CDO in this years King George. Before we know it we have a quite compromised system. Ratings are ok as a guide but you have to overlay an awful lot of your own art and science to reach a reasonable judgement imo.

Actually CDO is a good example of the flaws in the OR system and a good example of the RELATIVE clarity provided by a system designed to measure performance (RPR) rather than ability (OR). Every time lately CDO met his ideal conditions his performance triggered a rise in OR and every time he didn’t his OR has dropped including when he got beat first time out this season. I am pretty sure OR was never intended to fluctuate with every performance particulalrly when conditions varied significantly. Imo CDO is not inconsistent in the strict interpretation of the word but his performances are circumstance conditional. He performs consistently when he meets certain conditions.

This to me is why CDO gold cup price is too short. Get caught once shame on you get caught twice shame on me. Perhaps people are getting sucked in by the trainer saying bigger and stonger blah blah blah. Yes he may have spent 6 months in the summer eating miracle grass but he has just done exactly what he did last year in the KG and actually there is a strong argument to say he actually achieved more in last years KG. Perhaps the best fresh will be enough as will be going straight there but I would love to hear the reasoned argument that he is the right price for this years GC.

If you think that CDO is a reliable guide then Al Boum Photo is a good thing in the Gold Cup. In my opinion some horses are able to run above themselves once in their career but the experience affects them badly. Hawk Wing at Newbury, Cyrname at Ascot, Presenting Percy at Cheltenham 2018 are some. They may come back after a year to recover like Summerville Boy but many don't.

I am completely confused by how you have inferred form my post that ABM is a good thing for the GC.

And which of Cyrname 3 178+ ascot RPRs are you saying was a one off that bottomed him

And which of Cyrname 3 178+ ascot RPRs are you saying was a one off that bottomed him

If another equivalent race eg same conditions to the King George is being held at Kempton I'd row in with CDO ahead of all others including ABP and Lostintranslation (Lost) or even PP or DW as he's proven 2x there - he excels at the venue and distance. Outside Kempton eg Cheltenham, Aintree, etc I'd not if the likes of Kemboy, Lost or even ABP are in contention.

Thus, at The Festival it's either Kemboy or ABP (I'm not endeared to the horses he beat in the last renewal) given the main protagonists underperformed or otherwise or Lost or Santini. I cannot have those over-rans outside these lot; DW is held by Santini, and is not consistent or has improved sufficiently to be a major contender, in my opinion; the Savills Chase is below Gold Cup standard.

In my opinion there are only 4 or 5 horses that can win at this stage. Using potential for the younger horses and proven form for the older ones this year.

Al Boum Photo - no value at this stage. Unlikely to win back to back on the stats. Form of GC is shocking but time was good.
Lostintranslation - potential is there but concerning run in KG
Santini - must improve on return to galloping track. Ground will need to be soft to show best form. Likeliest winner on testing ground.
Delta Work - needs to step on again from Saville win. Improvement likely on form in RSA.
Native River - was never travelling last year and did amazing to get so close in the end. I think he’ll finish ahead of ABP and is ew value.

Can’t have Kemboy, CDO, PP or Monalee.

Lostintranslation looks like going to Newbury things will be a bit clearer then .

Aintree? Beating a non-entity? Had his chance, and possibly suffering the same effect as Might Bite after winning; on the downgrade; history.

The "ultra-soft" prep of ABP does not inspire confidence backing him at 5/1. Maybe his trainer knows too; Walsh chose him (fav) over ABP (2nd fav) at Punchestown.

But for that £1m bonus running at Kempton in the King George would not have been on the agenda for Lostintranslation, I firmly believe. Very possibly a blessing-in-disguise (Don Cossack went out to 12/1 with the Tote after falling) as a doubling in his price has since prevailed.

Is that the same non entity as the one who won a Sandown grade two at the end of last season and won the grade one Kauto Star as a novice ,ran 2nd in this seasons Galway plate carrying top weight and ran a cracker of  163 in a ascot handicap ?

You compare him to the way might bite has gone these are the facts since his gold cup win

2 nd in a Betfair Chase
3 rd in a King George
4 th in a gold cup beaten only 9 lengths
Won 33 lengths at Aintree


Might bite
Won Aintree
Last of 5 Betfair Chase
7th of 10 King George
Pulled up gold cup
Unseated Aintree
Pulled up Cheltenham

Yes. His form has been diabolical this season. Maybe the over-exertion of last season has taken its toil. Also, there is a massive gulf between Gold Cup and others including Grade 2; beating 15l and 27l this season. Another horse in regress perhaps.

It is not the race a horse runs in or wins, but against what company or calibre of horses, I firmly believe.

Native River is a Gold Cup winner on the decline similarly,  Frodon who has performed a smidgeon of his last year potential.

thats the one foxy

Hello foyleswar it was only the other day he completely disregarded note book at leopardstown

Native River was never “right” last season. Maybe following the hard race in the Gold Cup.

But he looked full of beans at Aintree which bodes well for this season.

Can’t have Lost taking on Native at Newbury in the Denman. Colin won’t do that.

Nobody thought he would run thistlecrack against cue card at Kempton ,if lostintranslation runs before the gold cup it will be at Newbury .

can't see how the Gold Cup form is shocking,myself.
One horse behind him is a dual King George winner.
Native River also won since,Bristol De Mai and Elegant
Escape both run well in defeat.
Don't think Al Boum Photo is being given the credit he
deserves.

It's not shocking.
Some of the stuff I am reading re thie Gold Cup this year is shocking though!!

Correct Penzance

al boum photo a worthy fav no disputing that and can see the attraction ,what puts me off slightly apart from  the price he is now  is the fact he will be attempting to retain the gold cup as history proves its difficult .

ABP looked fine the other day and I thought he jumped really well,at times  in the past I have not always thought that.
He's obviously suited to course and distance,and if as I think , his jumping has improved then for me he's the one to beat.

Native River is another that's obviously suited to course and distance,and at 20/1 I can see the attraction,cos if conditions on the day suit him he ain't a 20/1 shot imo.

Looks like lostintranslation will go straight to the gold cup with probable racecourse gallop the horse has had a flu jab whilst an outing in next months denman Chase was mooted he is now unlikely to run before the gold cup.

That's a shame. The greed for that £1m bonus has derailed his prep for the biggest prize in National Hunt racing. I hope this is a lesson to connections of serious future Blue Riband participants.

That’s a difficult one impossible the carrot was put there to improve the quality of the first two legs although hardly ever did the King George disappoint ,owners need prize money but yes on this occasion it seems to have hindered his chances of winning the gold cup ,it would take a brave person to back him now with the King George been his last run,that said he is in very good hands.

It was the general consensus the King George at Kempton could be too sharp a distance and track for Lostintranslation. I also think he'd quite a hard race when beating BDM the Haydock specialist in the Betfair Chase.

Yes I think the Haydock race was a bit tougher than most thought.

The Ascot race has left a mark on both Cyrname and Altior as well apparently. The same thing could happen to Clan des Obeaux as the ground was very testing in the straight at Kempton. They could recover by March but Native River is looking more and more like the best of the GB contenders.

al boum photo

Thistlecrack will miss the Festival due to a recurring injury.

What's about Clan Des Obeaux (CDO) should not be underestimated in the Gold Cup, according to the Racing Post today? CDO won the King George just as comfortably in 2018 beating Thistlecrack as last year, and clearly ran-out-of puff despite going well 1 out in the Gold Cup last year. I think it's extremely unlikely his stamina will improve this year either.

A bookie's mouthpiece being friendly to the bookies perhaps.

Shame about thistlecrack connections have been very brave with the horse deserved a bit more luck along the way.

Yes, that is probably the last we will see of Thistlecrack at Group 1 level. I do believe that CDO could be improving at just 8yo.

Big blow for native river supporters if Johnson misses the festival

Great point. Wonder if he’s a David bass sort of horse.

Johnson was the making of the horse hen he rode him at Aintree.

Bass would be a completely different type of rider who always presents a horse perfectly at a fence in my opinion.
I suppose Coleman would be the most similar to johnson to the way he can bully a horse a long during a race.

Fair enough ... I thought likely mistakenly he had a reputation for being a very assertive, positive on the front foot kind of jockey whereas you are describing almost the opposite so I couldn’t have got that more wrong.

STD, riding well at the moment, super sub in king george why not the GC, would be an ideal all action jockey for the horse.

It may just be old eyes tbh milton, but bass appears to get after the horse just before a fence, which they nearly always meet on a perfect stride, and then leaves them alone again.
I really like his style so hope you are correct as it would nice for him to get a few more decent rides.

STD messed up on Al Dancer though.

Who stays the trip ?
Anything that is entered
What are you saying
Loads of trainers out there
Have no clue if their horses stay or not ?
Guessing as to wether or not they stay ?
Really ?

Yes, really.

I think all but Mr Whitaker had won over 3 miles or more last week in the  Cotswold. Slate House won grade 1 around Kempton and De Rasher Hennessy. Cheltenham 3 mile + races at the highest level at pace need a certain type of horse. Well we can put a line through everything in that race bar Santini and BDM.

Today’s race is more a speed test rather than stamina, the facts are the time of the race is pretty much the same as Ryanair. Percy and Kemboy could take each other on which would probably help Delta. He looks the most likely strong stayer out of the trio.

I’m expecting Percy to beat Delta in a match bet due to a more prominent ride today.

Percy and Kemboy join my list of horses that won’t stay. Delta has their measure twice now.

Yep,agree with that.
This is going to be a proper race where the winner is going to need to get home really well.
NR,ABP,DW and SANT.
I will be surprised if one of them don't win.
Although 3 of them are in the top of the betting

Percy just can't go the pace in the middle of the race at that level which means he has used his petrol before the last fence. I think he needs 4 miles!

Wtf ... I am truly starting to appreciate what many say about this forum

You have to be selective on here

Yes but ridiculously so today it seems..... is it a full moon

Sage,PP travelled in the race pretty much where DW was,they both came into the closing stages of the race pretty much together and DW finished the race the stronger.
How you can conclude he needs 4 mile from that race is beyond me.

Can’t wait for this

I must admit after the race I thought the Percy debate was at last at an end. How wrong I am...

The cult is stronger than I thought. But they do make me laugh with their optimism.

budd,

The point that sage is making is that it is quite possible for the horse to have been beaten because it was not "enough" of a test of stamina which could see out and out stayers under pressure at the wrong times remember this horse has won over a lot further than this, he didn't die on his feet today, he kept on at the same pace.

Milton seems to be in a bit of a tiz as to some of the remarks being made about PP, for me talk of dropping him in trip is probably up there although I could be wrong, he's won over much further in heavy ground on the bridle off top weight (much lesser company granted) he'd be taken right off of his feet in a Ryanair IMO.

On that note let's look at him today, budd reckons he traveled well through the race, really? I didn't think so myself, I thought that Russell did not look happy on him through the first part of the race, his jumping wasn't great and there was definitely the odd shove from the jockey hell, for one brief moment I thought he might drop out altogether, the pace looked to slow mid race and he was better from then.

From the turn in PP did not tire and fall backwards like a typical non stayer he stayed on at the same pace there is just more of a stark appearance to his running as he goes the same pace on the bridle (as he briefly was turning in) and off the bridle and as he then hasn't found people assume he's a non stayer.

The winner found something that put the race to bed after the last fence but PP barely lost any further ground from halfway up the run-in to the line. The result today certainly is very promising for DW as he has a really good attitude and is really effective at this trip, it doesn't necessarily show that off of a more even pace over further at the festival whether he'll get home the same way.

I'm of the opinion that PP would still be going at his pace over further at the festival when others won't, now I'm not for one minute saying he'll win perish the thought, the ABP mob would bury me for that. That's not Al Boum Photo by the way, it's Anybody But Percy.

What I am saying though is that I'd see him as a thorough stayer and though I'm not sticking him in the "boat" category as such as he's better than that, he's probably more that way.

Anibale Fly hasn't beaten a horse home in his 3 runs this season being beaten over 200 lengths, hands up who thinks he doesn't stay at a competitive level over the GC trip, because I think he does, he's proved it and on more than one occasion, yet some are dogmatically saying that a horse beat 5 lengths won't stay!!

It's quite clear that the horse generates massive opinion and has a big following, the mystery of the trainer coupled with what the horse has shown all be it in his early days has served to elevate him perhaps too much so to a heightened level in some peoples opinions, however, every action has an equal and opposite reaction and if he does have a cult following he definitely also has the opposite, this forum just today as a microcosm on the whole issue has shown that with perhaps the over excited responses from a few posters.

On balance and as someone who would always consider the well being of others mental states I think the best possible result in this years GC would be for Delta Work and Santini to fight out a stirring dead heat.

Ok,I am willing to watch the race again and focus more on PP,.
I am more leaning to the opinion that he's just not good enough to win the Gold Cup,he's below the level of some of the others from the races I have seen.
But I will watch again.
Not sure about the ABP mention Duffy, can only speak for myself and I simply judge horses and make bets on opinions I form watching them run and jump.Had PP done what DW did yesterday,my comments would be different.

Hi Duffy

Ok where to begin

I think my starting point has to be to ask a favour. If ever I am asked a question and don’t reply within a few hours please do not answer for me. This would mortify me. I have been asked many questions and have never failed to reply. On many occasions I have asked fellow forumites a question and been ignored. I think it lacks common decency just a little. If you are willing to extrovert your view then be willing to answer when questioned.

Of course it is someone’s right not to answer but it is also within my rights to dislike it when they choose  not to. One or more of last nights posters had that form with me.

Ok let’s talk about PP dropping in trip. You are referring to his handicap win off 145. Well you open the door so I will walk through it. Beaten a length by our duke off 157 and just over 3 by Min off 169 on his seasonal debut are arguably just as strong performances ...plus other wins over similar trips at lower levels

Personally I think it’s weak argument in both our parts but if you are happy to claim yours I will claim mine.

I am going to hit send now as have a track record of losing posts half way through part 2 to follow.

In terms of him needing a real stamina test. Ok he is ridden by imo possibly the most tactically astute jockey out there. Every time I see him ride the horse lately it looks to me like he is trying to conserve energy. He rides very passive races on him. I do not see him take the race by the scruff of the neck if it is not enough of a stamina test for him. My interpretation of this is that they think against the very best this is the limit of his stamina. A drop in trip with a more aggressive ride is an option worth exploring or considering. The fact he wasn’t even entered in the Ryan is just mind boggling to me. I get santini , ABP and NR not having entries but DW has one CD has one and even BDM has one.

The other rationale for me was before I give up for good I would want to try something different. The Einstein definition of insanity is keep doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. Well that’s exactly what I see with PP they are doing the same thing and getting the same outcome. Fine if it’s not the Ryanair then for Christ’s sake do something different but like the owner says perhaps this is just as good as he is. Well imo he is not slow and a mid 160 horse would have more chance in the Ryanair than the GC and his run against Min on seasonal debut puts him in with a shout.

"Percy and kemboy wont stay" hells teeth the idiocy of people on here.

Everything stays it’s all relative to the opposition and how well. Are you saying they will stay well enough to win and if yes are you saying one of them will win in your opinion or if no are you saying that is because they are not quick enough. Rather than keep slagging people off how about you actually say be a little braver and explain in detail what you think and why to give others the chance to learn from your obvious superiority.

And btw I am one of the posters that actually has a little time for you

No unfair .... more than a little time

And teach us what they should do differently ... or are you saying all PP needed to do last year was the trainer not go on the lash

Miltons i dont have time to preach a sermon on here at every juncture. Kemboy won three miles at Limerick in a quagmire, he has been entered in nearly every big three mile chade going. PP won in a bog at galway over 23f , he too has been entered in three mile races time after time. Whilst I doubt the sincerity now of kelly I cant doubt that of mullins. On those days the going was so bad that if it had been england those races would not have been run. The west of ireland is different gravy .

Well I got Something out of you at least. I wasn’t talking about Kemboy and have no interest at all in a does he or doesn’t he stay conversation. I am happy to,leave that to others. I have not and will not back Kemboy for reasons other than stamina, the main two being I am not a huge fan of his jumping and I believe it is questionable whether Cheltenham is the right track for him and I would want a bigger price than he has ever been to take the risk.

I understand there have been races against weaker opposition where PP has shown sufficient ‘something’ to win. I just happen to believe that something was superior ability and not necessarily superior stamina.  At Galway he beat a vastly inferior horse  that has never won a race beyond 2 mile 6 ........might this not explain something. I also know how many furlongs there are in a mile so can see what trip,he has largely been campaigned over. For me they wanted more than anything to have a GC horse and they have never deviated from that burning desire. Sometimes such burning desires, particularly when you have the hopes of so many that you dont  want to let down, can make it incredibly difficult to accept a few realities. An illustration of this for me is not even having an entry in the Ryanair.

My bigger point however is you are just incredibly rude some of the time. I am sure you are very knowledgeable and I for one would appreciate being taught by you. Yesterday my posts were more aggressive than usual for reasons I have already stated. I am just asking that you replace a little of your aggression with a little teaching. Hey we might just listen, figure it out and p**s you off less as well. Win win.

Native River vrs Might Bite III on Saturday.

Only one winner and three nil.

Is Hendo sane running Might Bite (MB) against Native River (NR) in the Denman? Might Bite has lost his mind, and possibly his appetite for the game too. And, against NR his nemesis and instigator of his spiral decline. Surely it cannot be for the money. How peculiar?

I hope Altior shows up for The Game Spirit Chase.

Thanks Sophie , good advice , sorry for this, i'm not usually one to linger
Obviously most of the horses in the Gold Cup stay, no trainer (unless there were other reasons) would put a horse in the Gold Cup if he thought the horse didn't get at least three miles.
I would be more worried about the going on the day; whether or not the trainer had shown before that he could get one there fit on the day; whether or not the horse could handle the course; who the jockey was and the likely race scenario/tactics/jumping (pace and leaders) .
When it comes to the gold cup no disrespect but they are a grade one much of a muchness , they usually all know each other, they all get home, most of the time they have run against each other before,  its just a case of weighing up the above variables right. ABP did that last year.
I'm not trying to educate anyone, please don't think I am , I am merely pointing out that in this case who stays the trip is not a worthy consideration. The going for me is far more important as is the jumping and the booked jockey .

"Might Bite has lost his mind"

how nice. It was nothing to do with the trainer then ?

Mite Bite was a head job from the start. He had loads in the tank when he got the lead up the hill by native river. He flicked his ears two strides from the post and then trotted over to native river , ears pricked to thank him for the lead. Hendo knew all that from the Whisper race, but could not get to the bottom of him.

I am merely pointing out that in this case who stays the trip is not a worthy consideration. The going for me is far more important as is the jumping and the booked jockey .

Couldn’t disagree more. Frodon would win the Gold Cup or at least go very close using that criteria if ridden by AP McCoy. He’d be a fence behind when Santini went past the winning post

The Percy cult have their own ideas about the game but that’s their opinion and that’s why I like our discussions.

Hibore you know that if horse wants to jack it in he will do and there is nothing the jock can do about it, to the blind they say he doesnt stay, fact is horse could have hurt himselfcoming out the box, or jumping badly at a fence or clipped heels earlier in the race which the blind never spotted

Cyrname up ok

Ground is going to be testing if the weather forecast is correct. Could be heavy ground festival.

Today could be the wettest with 29mm expected (storm Dennis), but right up to Mar 2 little precipitation forecast, according to 'myweather2.com 14 day range forecast.

The weather channel has rain forecast nearly everyday till 2nd March. Who knows....?

I usually have one or two selections for the race eg Don Cossack; Might Bite and Native River. However, this year I've 4 eg Santini and Lostintranslation (antepost from last season); Kemboy and Al Boum Photo - both savers for small amounts and in trebles. But, none with confidence eg:-

1) Santini - lacking pace
2) Lost    - unexplained bad King George
3) Kemboy  - possible Cheltenham adversity/ground dependent
4) ABPhoto - question last year's result due to below par performances by main protagonists; 2nd was woeful

As for Delta Work and Presenting Percy, the former was beaten fairly in The RSA, the latter just not good enough. And, any one of the above 4 is a positive result for me. The question is whether cfc/ctc contemplated.

^ ^ ^

I,m expecting Sid James or Barbara Winsor to endorse these thoughts.

On soft or worse I will take Percy over your 4.

That must have been a a very poor RSA if the donkey Santini (lacking pace) beat the carthorse Delta Work,how you can ignore whats happened since that race is mind blowing.

Of course both were hammered by the sadly missing TOTG,another slowboat no doubt.

His trainer,on that evidence,should know where he stands regarding that novice trio.

Hardly a mention for Clan Des Obeaux on any GC thread.

People are very quick to point to last years race,relying on that one piece of form to confirm he does not stay.

I have my doubts.On the day he was beaten fair and square,despite travelling very well for the majority of that race.

The winning time suggests there was no soft at all,just 2 secs outside standard.

I happen to think he,s a different horse with genuine soft ground in the going.

He is a big unit,would he let himself down on last years ground,I,m suggesting it was far from ideal.

I think he has improved from the beast we saw last year,both physically and mentally.

On the 26th dec 2019 two horses came into the KG race with all sorts of bells and whistles.

This lad just had a T-shirt on.

To my eyes,the best staying chase performance of the season thus far,bar none.

He was pulling away at the end of that race.

If he gets his ground,thats a huge IF with this track,he should not be under-estimated.

I find it hard to pull apart grade 1 horses,they are a very small minority,as such each and every one deserves a certain amount of respect,as do the teams that get them there in one piece.

This years renewal for me hinges on the ground.

Similar ground to last year,the reigning champ and Delta would be my guess.

Absolute cracker in store.

"the latter just not good enough"

Getting very close to becoming the village idiot imp

Percy is certainly good enough
Third in the irish gold cup is very good form

Djakadam, first lieutenant, don poli, lord windermere..... be Careful !

nocturnal 17 Feb 20 21:41 Joined: 14 Jan 05 |

I,m expecting Sid James or Barbara Winsor to endorse these thoughts.
On soft or worse I will take Percy over your 4.

There does seem to be a split in the cult regarding HOW Percy is going to win the 2020 Gold Cup. Some think he’ll do a “RSA“ and accelerate pass the whole field on the bridle and the other faction think he dourly outstay them like Bobs worth.

Just wondering what to expect on 13th March.

Evening Hibore

I remember the Native River thread,he was a fine shout.At the time I remember discussing his profile,how he had come back from injury,how that enforced break may have been a blessing.

As for Presenting Percy cult .....never had a penny on the horse,ever.

Looking through his form,when he,s right,he is a very classy individual.

Granted,like CDO,there are questions to answer if we look at last years renewal in isolation.

Something tells me we will see a very different horse this time.

Proven festival form,2 out of 3 times he has produced at the festival,a rare feat itself.

That tells me his trainer knows exactly whats required,does it also suggest thats his time of year?

He,s run a few times now, without any reported setbacks,no doubt everything aimed at the 13th.

He would not be the first horse that requires a certain set of conditions to produce his very best.

There are no chases on the friday before the Gold Cup,which itself poses a problem.Do we go with the thursday times on the new course,I think not,it can dry out rapidly.

The last few GC results suggest that ratings are not the defining factor.

If he was not right last year,on that ground,he ran a cracker up to the final bend.

Does he deserve his place in the line up? I think he most definitely does.

Back to his best,every reason to think he can contend,given those Ideal conditions.

I,m also a big fan of Delta Work,both he and Santini try to make that step up to the top table.

If that makes me a cult follower of either,I,m cool with that.

How will he win ....... Thats easy,he will be the best horse on the day.

Presenting Percy (PP) claims to fame at Cheltenham: Won a handicap hurdle; beat a non-stayer in Monalee in The RSA - ABP fell 1st; had every chance in the Irish Gold Cup (looked the winner 2 out), but found wanting at the business end. As such, prospect of turning form around? Near zilch.

CDO: Impressive winner of The King George 2 years' running; ran out of petrol in 2019 Gold Cup 2 fences out despite going better than most until then. This year's renewal? Same again probably, as his trainer has similar predicaments with Silviniaco Conti who was found wanting here on at least 2 occasions despite winning at Kempton, if memory serves.

Today I've rejigged book a little with Delta Work for Kemboy (singles) in case the latter puts in a no-show here. And, if Santini (searching pace) and Lostintranslation (still suffering from Kempton) underperform.

But, one thing for near certainty PP is a very unlikely winner, all things being equal; PP is as good as he's shown when behind Delta Work and Kemboy, I firmly believe.

So you have backed all four at the top of the market...

...didnt learn anything last year then

PMSL

mark walsh booked to ride delta work.

Good choice for Delta Work. Hope Walsh gets the gig for Champ too.

The colossus has awoken after been asleep since the King George; money for Lostintranslation. I hope it's his well-being and work induced.