Gold Cup - who stays the trip ?

From these eg:-

1) Presenting Percy: had every chance, and fitness assured in the Savills Chase; pipped for 3rd by Kemboy yesterday.
2) CDO: bagged a 2nd King George convincingly; stamina limitation exposed in the Gold Cup last year after travelling well.
3) Native River: had ground and every chance last season; on the downgrade possibly after that gruesome ding-dong with MB
4) Elegant Escape: needs further and a massive improvement
5) Al Boum Photo: reigning champion, and beat Anibale Fly after better fancied runners underperformed or fell.
6) Kemboy: an early faller in last year's renewal; beat ABP and CDO easily after Cheltenham.
7) Santini: laboured win 1st run; 2nd in The RSA after a troubled prep, and finished in front of Delta Work Savill Chase winner.
8) Delta Work: indifferent jumper; Savills Chase winner but had every chance when 3rd in The RSA when jumping was near perfect. 
9) Lostintranslation: 2nd to Defi De Seuil over 2m 4f; outstayed BDM (Haydock specialist); breathing issue in the King George

Santini on his RSA showing is a serious contender, but he must prove his well-being and potential after his lacklustre win 1st time out; his absence since is another negative. If he wins convincingly next time he'll be a major paler here.

I firmly believe Kemboy who beat CDO at Aintree and ABP at Punchestown convincingly going away will stay the Gold Cup trip and uphill finish. Also, he's an excellent chance of landing this if back to his best eg when beating CDO and ABP post his 3rd and 1st run in the Savills Chase yesterday.

Similarly, Lostintranslation who outstayed BDM the Haydock specialist in the soft will stay this trip too. I also believe but for the £1m bonus he'd not have run in the King George. If his breathing issue is sorted he's another major player here.

My in order of merit.

1) Kemboy (least to prove)
2) Al Boum Photo (proven but beaten by above easily)
3) Lostintranslation (incredible win in the Betfair Chase)
4) Santini (most to prove)

^
and Kemboy is keen early on in his races, he has the Cheltenham question to answer as well as the stamina issue, wouldn't be for me.

Just as per last year and the previous year the same mistakes are being made by the same contributors again. You fail to realise the importance of two very big factors. Those who you judge are being judged on wet winter ground not good to soft at Cheltenham. Which is Simons objective. The second thing is that horses react to the seasons and particularly to sun on their backs, some of those that you have taken a definitive view on are completely different to those same horses running on good spring ground. Yet year after year you wager your opinion on these variables which arent factored into the prices and can operate either way. Guessers thread .....

i wold agree with that list of who will stay hibore having watched several reruns of the rsa its clear to me that delta work was staying on  near the line after being slightly squeezed between  santini and totg just a question of who has improved the most since . both should stay the extra dist of the gold cup native river will stay but has his time been and gone this will be his 4th gold cup ,elegant escape not good enough ,al boum photo got to be exceptional to retain a gold cup ,lostintranslation a probable stayer but question marks now .concerns for me with kemboy and his chelt record ,clan des o  better right handed ,percy probably stay but bit toprove now . time wasnt great for savills chase and in the circumstances played into monalees hands a speedier type so delta work did well to win off a slow pace .

Sorry about that

Immediately after last seasons rsa I thought it was a very strong race with three very good staying novice chasers fighting out the finish,my thoughts were there can be a case made for any off them for this seasons gold cup,the following morning the prices were around 12/1 both Santini and topofthegame yet 25/1 delta work which I thought was the wrong price,9 months on I am no more or no less confident of how he will perform in the gold cup but was obviously pleased with the leopardstown win,Cheltenham of course will be totally different he is however one of the most likely true stayers at championship pace in the gold cup,if I had to choose the likeliest winner at this stage it would be al boum photo he has proved he stays the test the gold cup is and there’s something about him that makes me think he is a very good horse,his defeat at punchestown was no disgrace his jumping wasn’t as good as it was at Cheltenham his two previous runs at punchestown were when 5 th over hurdles albeit in a strong grade one and a different experience when dr outfoxed pt in the 2018 champion novice chase,this thread is about who stays the trip well with absolute certainty al boum photo does.

I will stick my neck out and say that it will be one of the horses that ran in the Gold Cup last year.

We'd see the winner in Ireland today. He's back after a long lay-off ie Sizing John. And, he stayed the distance too...a previous winner of the race.

Al Boum Photo 1st race of the season against 2nd raters (at Tramore not Punchestown or Leopardstown) except Shattered Love; his price for this has contracted into 8.6 - absolutely barmy.

reigning champion,can't see how that
price is barmy,should be the jolly really.

would've won the GD1 at Punchestown aswell,
if he did'nt run out.
I'm  a Kemboy fan but this horse is
the rightfull fav atm,imv.
Been here done it.

Very possibly had ABP not run out. Then again Finian's Oscar was just getting into contention when he was carried out by ABP. But, one thing for sure though. ABP had always won races when the main protagonists underperformed or fell or against non-competitive opposition. After today ABP will probably go straight to the Gold Cup similar to last season.

An external factor outside racing meant Kemboy was unable to run in the Clonmel Chase last November like last season. But, this could be a blessing in disguise as with another race scheduled for Kemboy next month he'd not be without a run for nearly 3 months unlike last season. And, if Kemboy wins his next race (which is likely) he'd be fav for Cheltenham.

Kemboy would have been strip fitter and more competitive if he'd had a run prior to the Savills Chase eg at Clonmel or elsewhere. As such, his lack of fitness told coming to the last fence hence his defeat. Otherwise the result would have been different, I firmly believe, in the competitive Savills Chase - he'd have gone to Tramore instead. If so, he'd definitely have won, and odds shortened as a result.

I've little doubt come his next outing in early Feb he'd improve, and be ready for Cheltenham about 6 weeks later - the ideal time between races; last season it was over 10 weeks, a timeframe similar for ABP this season.

I believe a more competitive prep race for ABP rather than a 4-runner non-event at Tramore would be more appropriate esp if ABP is going straight to Cheltenham after; the big contraction in his price since surprised me too as he started 16/1 in the Gold Cup when winning, but beaten by Kemboy later.

I think it's an almighty ask for Klasssical Dream to be near his Supreme winning form come his next race or in March if he goes straight to Cheltenham.

So the Saville Chase has been rated now. Not pretty reading for those who saw this as the best Chase run so far this season.

Delta Work has been raised 6lbs to 169 and Monalee 5lbs to 168. That is a full 10lbs lower than CDO King George win. Road to respect was dropped 2lbs (167j with Percy left on 169 for some reason. Probably would be uproar if Percy wasn’t as good as all the Irish claim him to be.

Kemboy is given the benefit of the doubt and left on 177. Fair enough as it was his first run.

ABF won in an appalling time of nearly a minute over standard but won easily against shocking opposition. He on 174.

Santini 163, Native River 168, BDM 170 and Lost 173.

Next big race will be Cotswold where Santini, Lost, De Rasher and perhaps Native River run.

So you could argue that the only horses to run over 170+ this season are CDO, BDM and Lost. ABF unlikely but didn’t need to.

Totally agree. I’m hoping for 10lbs improvement from Santini in the Cotswold. And even more in GC.

I think ratings are correct in the main. Certain horses have optimum conditions at certain courses and trips. BDM and Cyrname prove that point.
However, not many horses show their best form around Cheltenham. ABP probably does with Lostintranslation, Santini and Percy.

Kemboy just doesn’t look in love with the place and has run very average there in his two festival finishes. That has to be a major concern.

RPR is just a moment in time assessment. There is no expectation built in that it will be carried forward at all. You have to use your own judgement as to whether it will be repeated or bettered in the future. OR is more of an attempt to measure a horses ability rather than a performance which of course is why it does not change race after race.  There are countless examples of horses that have wildly fluctuating RPRs with stand out performances often months sometimes many months apart. I look at it more of what a horse is capable of when it has a certain set of conditions (fitness, track, ground e.t.c.). I am neutral when it comes to PP but can see that there have been very few times when he has had a set of circumstances as positive as it did for the RSA and see no reason why if experiencing those circumstances again or even a better set of circumstances could not equal or even better that RPR.

The problem comes in when an OR is unduly influenced by one or two performances that are circumstance driven. Cyrname is the perfect example. I would expect his RPRs to fluctuate wildly based on circumstance which makes his OR practically irrelevant. This issue is exacerbated when a horse like Cyrname is used to benchmark other horses performance such as CDO in this years King George. Before we know it we have a quite compromised system. Ratings are ok as a guide but you have to overlay an awful lot of your own art and science to reach a reasonable judgement imo.

Actually CDO is a good example of the flaws in the OR system and a good example of the RELATIVE clarity provided by a system designed to measure performance (RPR) rather than ability (OR). Every time lately CDO met his ideal conditions his performance triggered a rise in OR and every time he didn’t his OR has dropped including when he got beat first time out this season. I am pretty sure OR was never intended to fluctuate with every performance particulalrly when conditions varied significantly. Imo CDO is not inconsistent in the strict interpretation of the word but his performances are circumstance conditional. He performs consistently when he meets certain conditions.

This to me is why CDO gold cup price is too short. Get caught once shame on you get caught twice shame on me. Perhaps people are getting sucked in by the trainer saying bigger and stonger blah blah blah. Yes he may have spent 6 months in the summer eating miracle grass but he has just done exactly what he did last year in the KG and actually there is a strong argument to say he actually achieved more in last years KG. Perhaps the best fresh will be enough as will be going straight there but I would love to hear the reasoned argument that he is the right price for this years GC.

I am completely confused by how you have inferred form my post that ABM is a good thing for the GC.

And which of Cyrname 3 178+ ascot RPRs are you saying was a one off that bottomed him