I’ve backed ea at good prices to win the ballymore just because of the way he fought off blue sari in the bumper and the way it kept finding in its bumper before Cheltenham, i think it’s more likely to run in the supreme now and think only defeat (which I can’t see in the royal bond) or it being called off or other circumstances like the next suitable race after it being over further, will stop it running in the supreme, I hope I’m wrong. What I didn’t like is the way the whole Malone Road episode has been handled, it obviously injured itself a while ago and not 1 person in the press called the stable out for it, gutfeelinng made a good point if it hasn’t been right for a while it was never a factor in what race ea will go for, cheveley park or Gordon Elliot could have just said a couple of week ago that there was a problem but they let bookies profit from it, it’s not good practice and leaves a bad taste imo.

Me neither I called a few of them out and Elliot’s stable and got told to bore off

I had a chat with Dave Yates and templegate in York town centre after the Dante, I told templegate you made the day of a friend of mine who follows your tips in the newspaper and it was 25-1, he laughed and said he only picked it because the name soldier was in it, they couldn’t give a toss really, we on here take racing more seriously

JP relies on his Front View in the Royal Bond Sunday - he was 6.5L second in Envoi's Down Royal Maiden win and has won in Cork since for Joseph O'Brien.

The past week and this week up to the durkan is the most crucial Cheltenham week for Irish horses. All the newbys have to get a run into them, all the stay outs for injuries get a run the douvans the penhills etc. This is the start of Willie and Gordon's route ,Christmas next and then cheltenham. Hold yer fire on anything the cavalry is chomping at the bit, prepare to have your previous thoughts screwed up and binned. You are about to have your dreams crushed by reality.

Another perhaps interesting point if trends are your thing ..... forget the royal bond and wait for the Deloitte...... so if you take both data points should you conclude that followers of EA are going to have their dreams crushed.

Sure. I am saying that the royal bond has a very poor record of producing Cheltenham winners compared to the Deloitte and EA obviously ran and impressed over hurdles way earlier than the period that irishone stated is the key period for the best Irish horses historically, which is backed up by the list I gave so yes there are two data points (assuming he runs in and runs well in the Royal Bond) that on trends would suggest he might be one of the horses that Might let a lot of people down come Cheltenham. He can do nothing about irishones trend that train has left the station, if he doesn’t want a double whammy then run in the Deloitte

I don’t know hat happened to my post as it missed the end off

I also put that personally unless somebody can tell me who these wonder horses are that are waiting in the wings (as I am not convinced there are any ... which is what I meant by lies damn lies e.t.c.) I wouldn’t be the slightest bit bothered if I was an EA fan.

Ok so statistically the older the data point the less weight it carries or less relevant it becomes (not my rules) so apologies I had not laid out all my rationale and I appreciate your opinion that my post is a load of nonsense. So let me provide more precision. I was comparing the first three home in each race in recent seasons I went back to this decade for both races and have excluded handicaps winners.

Royal bond

Nichols canyon
Champagne fever

Deloitte

Klassical dream
Samcro
Nichols canyon
Windsor park
Champagne fever
Vautour

Also Duc De genevres was placed in 2018 and won the arkle obviously a year later. No chase winners at all from the royal bond first three this decade

I appreciate you think it’s nonsense ... I just thought somebody might find it a little interesting but appreciate the feedback

miltons i'm not being rude it's just my way, i handicap horses and as much as trends are a useful tool to some, it can also put you off bets because certain horses don't coincide with the data and can lead to wrong decisions because of lack of homework as a certain horse doesn't fit criteria, i dislike trends myself.

horses win horse races it doesn't mean they are any good it is up to you as a student to decide whether the horse is good enough, obviously certain trails in certain years are of lesser grade than other years.

anyway hope it works out for you

Champion Bumper hero Envoi Allen made a bright start to his hurdles career at Down Royal this month and looks set to tackle Sunday's Royal Bond Novice Hurdle alongside the promising Abacadabras.

Elliott said: "We've got a great bunch of novice hurdlers this year. I suppose Abacadabras is a speedy horse whereas with Envoi Allen, you could see him stepping up as the year goes on. He's a big galloping, staying horse. They're two exciting horses and someone has to get beaten."

I think i was.more trying to suggest that
For irish horses this is the start of the cheltenham trail
The general approach is a four to six week gap and two races before the festival.
Dont think the named races themselves actually matter on the first run
Its just to get them aired. E G Royal rendvous runz in the beginners chase at thurles 12-15 , that was always touted as a cheltenham horse

Abacadabras
Darver Star
Embittered
Envoi Allen
Fast Buck
Midnight Run
Turnpike Trip
Foveros
Soviet Pimpernel

9 declared for royal bond a very deep race

You don't see it as a deep race, interesting. What would you call a deep race in regards novices?

Interesting thoughts.

I suspect there will a number of Ballymore backers who will be hoping Envoi Allen doesn't win this easily. You can probably throw in Betfair as well who were top priced 20/1 for the Supreme after Down Royal.

This is the best bumper horse and a really imposing horse to boot. He couldn't have been more impressive on hurdling debut on a course that was probably sharper than ideal. The form has been franked all over the place. He comfortably holds today's second and third favourites on bumper form.

I will ask the same question of those who think it is a strong race. Who is going to beat him and more importantly why? Having an off day doesn't count.

I haven't backed him today. I rarely back odds on but there are much worse odds on chances than this one. When you back a horse for next March it's enough just to see them come through unscathed. So much can go wrong.

it appears differendrum has all bases covered

just on the race today it will be interesting to see how he rides envoi allen today, it's all well and good getting loose on an easy lead in a maiden hurdle at down royal ,sooner or later he will be dropping the horse in as he is a hold up horse. fast buck should lead today but i'll be interested how russell rides him and when they decide to educate him in behind horses. it paid to be handy in the first race today so maybe he will ride him handy but sooner or later he will be ridden in behind there doesn't look a huge amount of pace in this race today so it could get tactical