It's coming - and looks pretty bad.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/rainfall-radar#?map=Rainfall&fcTime=1552333800&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.45

Looks like they've missed most of the expected rain

officially soft now

claisse has just inspected the course,on stepping out of his canoe he said its good to soft with a soft patch at the bottom of the home straight

As long as it's not Venice racing will take place regardless, why? Tiger Roll needs it otherwise Grand National a fantasy.

Been raining heavy
In the local press there is a COV-19 SCARE

NOT SURE if THIS WILL BE CONFIRMED

....not saying it's bad but the shipping forecast currently goes 'Tyne, Dogger, Fisher....Gloucestershire'

The long range forecast is unsettled until the Friday before the festival. So things can change, but the last bit of rain is forecast to fall on the Friday evening and then the next 7 days are dry.
So this will atleast mean they won’t water the track, with the meeting probably starting on soft, with maybe a bit of good to soft in places on the Tuesday, and by the Friday good to soft, good in places with a bit of luck!

You have great faith in the forecasters my general experience is they struggle to get it right a couple of days in advance.

Hope they are right though.

I thought the BHA had him by the nuts. I was totally wrong. He knows that track inside out and spends most of his time cheltenham week playing public relations. He has the BHA by the nuts. Very intelligent man ! Vast majority of groundsmen couldnt handle Cheltenham.

Rain now predicted on the Sunday before the festival and also on World hurdle / Ryanair day.
I think I better give up on the idea of getting good ground on gold cup day :(

BBC, some sort of rain every day up to 6th March

Summary
Stormy end of February but trending drier in March
After an extremely wet and stormy February, the weather pattern looks to shift to a drier, calmer, and milder one in March. However, February is not quite done with us yet, and a few more storms are expected in early-March. Things will likely dry out by the second full week of March, with high pressure dominating the weather until the end of the month. However, it will likely still be wet and windy at times in Scotland from weak fronts.

Saturday 29 February – Sunday 8 March
Stormy weekends bookend a calmer, cool week.
Storm Jorge will be moving across the UK this weekend bringing its full force to bear on Saturday. Strong winds for most of the country with heavy rain in the southwest and hill snow for North England and Scotland will make for quite the stormy day. Conditions will ease somewhat by Sunday, but it will still be quite breezy across the country, and snow is still likely in Scottish hills.

Heading into the working week, Storm Jorge will abate as the weather turns a bit more benign for a time. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems, will dip south. Lately it has been over the UK giving us plenty of stormy weather in February, but as it heads south it will instead send those weather systems into Spain and Portugal. As a result, it will be a bit drier than it has been recently, but also feeling a bit colder than normal. Some overnight frosts are likely this week making for some crisp mornings. It won't necessarily be completely dry though, especially in Scotland. Some rain is still likely in the west as well, which may drift into central and eastern areas occasionally.

Heading into the first weekend of March, there are increasingly strong signals for yet another storm to move in from the west, bringing some wet and windy weather for the weekend. This would make the fifth consecutive weekend of unsettled weather! Confidence is only medium, however, as some models show a ridge of high pressure instead.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March
Rain shifting north. More settled in the south.
Heading into the second full working week in March in the wake of the anticipated stormy weekend, we expect high pressure to build in by around midweek. This will mean that the weather pattern will change to a more settled, drier, and milder one. Temperatures will tend to be above average, but this will be most pronounced in the South as the high feeds in warmer sub-tropical air.

Low pressure will be pushed away to the north nearer to Iceland, but weak weather fronts will likely still be able to reach into Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland. This will create a bit of a north-south split in the weather, with Wales and England being largely fine and dry while Scotland and Northern Ireland are wetter and windier. However, it will not be nearly as stormy as it has been, as these fronts are likely to be rather weak features.

The main uncertainty this week is how quickly high pressure will become established over the UK. It may take a bit longer than midweek, which would prolong the unsettled and cooler weather. The forecast models haven't quite made their minds up yet on when they might happen, but we do expect high pressure to be in place by the end of the working week.

There4 Claisse will call it , Soft good to soft in places and drying out slowly.

Maybe later in the week on the new course is where you will see the better ground ?????

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=Cheltenham

Summary
Further wet and windy weather for a time.
After the wettest February on record for the UK, further wet and windy weather looks likely for a time. However, there are still signs that England and Wales should become less wet later this month. Scotland and Northern Ireland look more likely to experience a persistence of wet conditions throughout the coming month.

Wednesday 4 March – Sunday 8 March
Wet and windy at times, most widely this weekend.
The coming days will be unsettled at times. Wednesday will be quite chilly and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading eastwards through the day. However, some northern areas, including much of Scotland, will stay brighter with just a scattering of showers.

After a wet night for some, Thursday should see any rain clearing eastwards to leave brighter skies. However, it will be quite chilly again. Some north-western parts of the UK will continue to see showers, these wintry over upland areas. For Friday, there is some uncertainty over the details of the forecast but it is likely to be showery for some. The greatest chance of showery rain is in the south and west.

This weekend, strengthening south-westerly winds are likely to be accompanied by more widespread outbreaks of rain. However, the winds will at least bring in milder air with temperatures rising a little above the average. Wettest conditions appear likely to be in the west and north-west of the UK where local flooding is possible.

Monday 9 March – Sunday 15 March
Another often wet and windy week.
Indications are now for a persistence of unsettled weather through the second full week of March.

Showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from west to east across the country, bringing above-average rainfall. The rain is likely to be accompanied by strong winds at times, too. Therefore, there will continue to be the risk of local flooding and river levels could continue to be high at times. The greatest likelihood of strong winds appears to be around the middle part of the week.

Despite the unsettled conditions, it is not expected to be particularly cold. Any snowfall should be largely confined to upland areas in the north of the UK. Occasional frosts would be expected, though, under any lengthier clear periods at night.

There now appears to be reduced chances of a lengthier drier and calmer period of weather developing through the week. However, a drier and calmer scenario cannot be completely ruled out at this stage.

SOFT / HEAVY it is then. At least the form through the winter may well hold up unless the horse has been over raced.

Quite a bit of rain expected on Monday afternoon could turn that ground to maybe soft, heavy in places! Envoi Allen to the supreme if it’s heavy!
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/16days.asp?zipcode=Cheltenham&locationID=57691&lat=51.9&lon=-2.1

BBC Weather says strong winds and heavy rain on Monday  with light rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday too.

More total.bowlux on here
Cheltenham rests in a bowl
It has its own micro climate
Claisse is a shrewd operator
Only way to know for definite
A) walk the course yerself
B) watch how good the irish horses are doing, if its heavy they will be pi55ing in

Its been a glorious day here today after a frosty start - almost warm enough to take my coat off