Cheltenham Festival
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dominance of ireland.
dominance of ireland.
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Ireland get more than their fair share of handicap winners. I've just read the Kevin Blake blog in which he says:
"Mercifully, last year’s weights didn’t elicit nearly as severe a reaction and what panned out on the track backed up the general view prior to the meeting that the weights were fair. Irish-trained horses won five of the 10 handicaps at the meeting, but it took 53 Irish-trained runners to achieve that. This represented a win strike-rate of 9.4%, which is lower than the overall 11% win strike-rate of Irish-trained horses in British National Hunt handicaps that the BHA expressed satisfaction with as being fair in a statement they released in the aftermath of the controversy after the announcement of the Grand National weights in 2017." What he fails to mention is that it took 165 British horses to get their 5 handicap winners ie. a 3% strike rate. Why the BHA thinks an 11% Irish strike rate is fair when the British strike rate was 3% is beyond me. |
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That's just daft. The ratio of winners to runners is going to be dependent on how big the fields are, which are always bigger at the festival. As you say, the comparison should be with the British strike rate.
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It was the BHA that raised all National Hunt ratings 10lb and the Irish didn't, that was about 10 years ago. When the Irish come over their ratings are consequently raised, the handicapper as got kinder to them the last few years.
The Irish have made enough noise over that time. Should connections be allowed to socialise with handicappers? would be my question. |
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I've read the BHA statement that Kevin Blake referred to and the relevant text is "Over the last eight seasons, in all handicaps in Britain, 11 per cent is the Irish strike-rate and ten per cent is the UK strike-rate."
Those strike rates are in the same ball park and I have no problem with that. By only referring to the Irish strike rate in Cheltenham handicaps Kevin has taken the BHA statement out of context. An Irish strike rate more than three times the British strike rate, as I noted in my post yesterday, indicates a problem and requires further study with a bigger sample size. It would also concern me if Kevin was using his prominent British media profile to lobby for preferential treatment for the lucrative Irish racing industry, especially when the Irish Government is subsidizing Irish racing (67.2 million euros this year). |
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That article can also be seen on Kevins blog on ATR, i personally didn't think there was anything untoward in it and it was just matter of fact.
Saying that i don't disagree with you (Autocue) in what you are saying that something is fundamentally wrong with the 9.4% and 3% strike rates. The fact the average "rise" this year from the British handicapper over the handicaps is about a lb from previous years is i think acknowledging your point and while far from draconian is a step to at least try and right the discrepancy between the strike rates. I wish i listened more attentively as someone gave me what i thought (whether right or wrong) was a good explanation in that young horses ie say a maiden hurdle are handicapped more harshly in the UK and conversely more leniently in Ireland and that is where the difference carries through.(last sentence is only conjecture on my part and open to correction) |
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Last 3 years h'caps
Irish 16 winners from 156 entries British 14 winners from 702 entries Placed in 1st 5 Irish 47 placed out of 156 British 103 placed out of 702. Perhaps the British trainers should move to Ireland. They can't complain and upset the rich owners. |
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PC squad have the British trainers over regulated
Irish trainers are under regulated in comparison In terms of ..... Number of visits from government quangos Number of vets available to report back Drug use Cultural differences Balance wrong imvho |
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strike rate is a flawed measure, you need to use % of winners divided by % runners if you are going to sensibly compare irish/UK trained horses in hcaps
the hurdles scale in particular has been wrong for years |
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I remember the Irish ranting about the handicap mark Presenting Percy got, like 10lbs extra it was if memory serves. LOL
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Interesting info Souldancer. I felt uncomfortable picking on last year in case it was a one-off, but you have shown that over the last 3 years the Irish have won 53% of the Cheltenham handicaps with 18% of the runners. You have to admire the way the Irish rally round to moan about their unfair handicap treatment while the British trainers seem happy to take it up the ***. Irish racing is government funded and I think that makes all the difference. Hundreds of thousands to be made on castrated horses over there nowadays, boosted by Irish success at the only fixture that seems to matter nowadays.
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Yes, it is goverment funded and you can argue that money can be spent on social disparaties which they are plenty. However Irish racing is in good health though monopolised by a few,the recent arc protests regarding UK prize money are justified and the stark comment of winning a race is the equivalent of 2 weeks training fees is symbolic of how far UK racing has stood still(as far as i remember from 30 years ago the prize money actually has fallen even to inflation).
A bit unfair to slag the Irish model when it looks to me the UK have neglected their racing badly. |
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Well said
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It's not a nationalist argument. I admire Irish racing for the way they run rings around the BHA. If I'm slagging anyone it's the BHA handicappers for failing to provide a level playing field.
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so ur saying it is Nationalist then, because if you see an angle why not go with it and keep it to yourself hth
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Accept the seemingly looking lopsided stats Autocue but finding the answer is backstopesque, what do you propose? The British handicapper as i said above raised the Irish runners on previous years by a lb,pending on the Irish handicappers performance if they do well this year i can see similar happening next year and so on.
A thin line,conjecture but imagine Noel Meades de Names Escapes Me is staying at home today going for a good pot instead of the so called olympics simply because he would consider him "badly" handicapped over. |
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The best thing about this year , is the english think they have a few.
Our lads havent been about last three months So handicapper has no clue how good they really are Only problem is ......neither do we ! |
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I dont mind the t caddys winning races, just hope they dont wave that fooking flag
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The trend showing bias towards Irish handicappers continued this year. Over the last four Cheltenham Festivals (2016-2019), Irish trained horses have won 53% of the handicaps with 26% of the runners.
Over that period, the Irish winner strike rate is 9%. The British strike rate is 2.8%. Are the BHA handicappers on the Irish racing payroll? |
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Autocue is it not just the Irish horses are better trained and overall better bred horses? In that time stated above how many cups have the Irish won
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I think you English need to concentrate on beating the Irish over the 28 races instead of worrying about bloody handicaps!!!
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I think most of us English do not give a toss wheteva horse is trained when it comes to Cheltenham winners
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Where a horse is trained
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Has a Gold Cup runner ever been trained by a traveller? Or no runner permissible from that quarter.
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Crawl into a hole ffs
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Easter hero named after 1916, was bred from an Arab
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I think theres one or two that need to crawl into a hole to be honest.
Imp would not be one on my list. |
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Imp would be high on my list along with yourself budd
People who dont let the facts get in the way Of their totally biased derogatory views Laced with subterfuge and false humility Should welcome a hole like the hermits they are |
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Totally agree with above
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You both need to get out more and find some friends and budd have a lie in once in a while ffs
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 Such nice people!! |
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I believe horse racing is one of those rare sports that transcends the colour of someone’s flag and petty and pathetic tribal rivalries. I believe one reason for this is because at the heart of the sport is an animal and one of the most glorious, courageous and incredible animals on the planet at that. While there are at times tensions between owners, jockeys and trainers I would say that the massive mutual respect all parties show each other is an example for all other sports and one of the main reasons why I love this sport so much. There have been threads on this forum and comments made that drag this wonderful sport into the gutter. I have read many references on here that in other walks of life would be considered toxic or highly provocative. I have read people being insulted and ridiculed for holding the views they do. I have witnessed posters being subjected to distasteful accusations and people being treated with a total lack of respect. The saddest thing however is that this forum appears to be incapable of self policing and this in my opinion is why it is dying. If people choose to trash this forum, others should collectively help drive a shift in behaviour in that person.
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And what dump twit buys & brings an Irish flag to a racecourse, only to fcuk it away later at some passing jockey. Dumpboos
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Types on here?
1 nice moderate posters vast majority 2 thick tw4ts needing education 3 bullys, racists covertly operating 4 attention seekers Block them and you defeat the object Of going on a forum in the first placde Blocking says more about you than them |
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Why would you want to block anyone, you couldn't see what they were saying about you.
 Some comments may sting momentarily but it's just words at the end of the day. We're on a forum where opinions are diverse and bound to raise tensions from time to time, who cares!! |
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Agree duffy
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Fine Duffy. If you and others truly believe this forum is delivering on its potential then fair play it is your forum to do whatever you want with. My post had absolutely nothing to do with peoples sensitivities and tensions which will of course be challenged on a forum. It had much more to do with the power of proper intelligent agenda free debate and whether that is becoming less and less prevalent and being replaced by other less stimulating stuff. If you guys prefer to go back and forth hundreds and hundreds of times on some threads with the kind of stuff I have seen then it is your forum and of course you are free to do it. I just wonder whether you are gradually losing good people as a result leaving a few posters with 10s of thousands of posts just winding each other up (and now I would say occasionally stepping over a line)and very few new posters. Happy punting
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I agree Duffy, I have never blocked anyone and don’t really want to,but I have just got fed up with the sh1te I read on here.
Hopefully now I will just read stuff about the horses and their jockeys trainers etc,and not get drawn into other stuff. |
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Or,as Miltons hints at,I could just not bother here anymore as others have over the years.
I ain’t that bothered to be honest,and I doubt too many on here will be either. |
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milton,
I don't go back and forth arguing the toss, this is the first time I've even commented on this thread, basically what I'm saying is that if you are in search of some kind of shangri la where every poster is only interested in a thoughtful intelligent exchange regarding all horsey matters, then you have precisely no chance and would never have had a chance. It would be akin standing at the gates of Prestbury Park and trying to weed out all the pi55 artists and only letting in the "real" enthusiasts. |
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I think that the Cheltenham forum is quite good, more of the racing enthusiasts frequent this side of things I think, shafter, zodie et al arguing over omitted comma's wouldn't be seen over here for example.
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