Cheltenham Festival
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NATIVE RIVER 11/2
NATIVE RIVER 11/2
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Replies: 66
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I don’t deny soft ground would be his preference as it puts more emphasis on stamina which is his weapon.
Yes Hibore, and i would add to that.......others will be hindered by soft and he wont. So IF i had a large bet on NR i would want it soft for reasons above, but if it was good or good to soft i would not be tearing my slip up. |
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thers a school of thought that if anything has won or run well over a marathon trip then they "must" have very soft ground or a bog . of course most people want a cruiser not a bruiser to win the blue riband ,but stamina is a potent weapon and ultimatly is what usually wins the race .
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The faithful will be happy hearing that,they go on so much I think they're trying to convince themselves
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Well cant speak for others, but the reason I go on about it, is because I feel the horse is being done an injustice, so I stick up for him.Certainly don't need to convince myself,i have the formbook on my side.
Hes a proper stayer on all sorts of ground who runs well at Cheltenham. Won the Gold Cup on soft, been a close up placed in the Gold Cup on good, and ran a blinder in the 4 miler on good/soft. No more to be said really. |
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No more to be said really.now sense is added to thread
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I believe the reason NR got done by minella rocco was the ground that day as well. On that day it was meant to be GOOD To SOFT , SOFT IN PLACES, it wasn't, I was on the course that year and there were parts where it was definitely GOOD , meanwhile down on the cross country they had standing water. Native River has an exaggerated knee action and hits the ground hard – rarely leads to a horse being so accomplished on good ground.
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 Pot and kettle spring to mind |
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I thought I saw you in the Best Mate Enclosure Irish
From Reasehealth The Going Stick Readings (and the going allowances for the Raceform speed figures) suggest that Percy ran on worse ground (comparison is questionable though given they ran on different courses). Percy's performance actually compares more favourably using median times as the comparison point - 15.8 secs faster as opposed to 10.2 secs. Apologies if it reads like I'm trying to be smart - the points I make are merely to highlight the pitfalls in trying to compare times on (essentially) different courses on different days. I agree with your overall premise though, Hibore - I actually think Presenting Percy ran a very good speed figure - but Native River's was exceptional. Makes you look a bit of an idiot really. |
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Love the way Irish decides his own going descriptions to suit his argument,great stuff
So clever one, what was your going when Sizing John won the Gold Cup?....officially good. And when NR beat CDO at Haydock?.......officially good. |
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Shooting yourself in the foot springs to mind.
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Every horse can handle good ground.It goes without saying that Gold Cup winners should be capable of running well on good ground. The fact is, Native River is a better horse on softer ground as the formbook clearly shows.
Getting beaten twice by Minella Rocco is not the same level of form as beating Might Bite(at his best) by 4 and a half lengths so as regards him being a potential winner of next months Gold Cup then yes, he is ground dependent. |
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Heneeds
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He is definitely not a daisy cutter ...great horse winning on good
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Never again , once did me hibore
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NR outstayed Might Bite.
I think he would outstay MB on any surface to be honest. Proven Gold Cup horse on good ground and soft ground. Are their any others in the race?? |
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Minella Rocco stays very well,Might Bite does not.
The Gold Cup is a stamina test,won by horses that have to stay well. Yes Good ground can help those that just about get home, and by that nature can give those more chance of beating a proper stayer like NR,but that done mean NR cannot win the Gold Cup on good ground if hes the best horse in the race. I do not see one horse in the race that is more suited to the Gold Cup than him. |
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Despite the impending deluge forecast over the next few days Native River is still available at 7.8 here. Also, I think an attempt to manipulate his price is in process presently.
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Is it a non runner....extremly weak on the exchange today?
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I can't have NR myself, we've seen what last years GC did to MB, well I think that similar all be it perhaps to a lesser extent has happened to NR too, let's see if he can roll his sleeves up and whilst trying to put others to the sword is he capable of dragging himself once more into the real deep water, I doubt it.
There seems to be a thought, certainly on here that as long as it's soft ground again everything will automatically fall back into place, not for me and when the chips are down and he has to try and break that field up I think we'll see it. |
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NR ran in unsuitable races, and all things considered he'd done well to be placed in both.
I think someone is up to mischief ie price manipulation; I'm waiting for layers,...the backers do not indicate market (generally). |
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You may be right Duffy.
Personally i cannot wait to see how NR gets on back at a course that suits him at a distance that suits him. Its fascinating to see if he can repeat last year. |
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Having watched the long range weather forecast I can see it being pretty testing ground by 3.30pm next Friday afternoon so have lumped on Native River at 6/1+ with a view to laying off at around 7/2 for a juicy free bet.
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Having looked at the forecast - I predict Good to Soft (Soft in places), There'll be no excuses
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Just about fav now. Could start around 3/1 if the forecasts are correct.
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Apart from the heavy rain Monday night, Tuesday morning, there is virtually nothing forecast all week now.
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How lucky is Native River.....Cheltenham soft/heavy about once every ten years and he gets his favoured ground conditions two years on the trot.
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