Cheltenham Festival
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Sometimes the obvious is not so obvious. If you told me after Native River past the post 11 months ago that he’d be facing Clan Des Obeaux, Kemboy, Bellshill, Al boom photo, thistlecrack and Presenting Percy (who had only run in a Hurdle) what price would he be I’d guess 2/1.
Kempton is not his track and he was stuffed by Tea for Two before he won Hennessy, Welsh National and Gold Cup. Ignore that run.
11/2 is incredible value - especially e/w.
I think you need to take that today as if Clan blows out (he can throw in a shocker) and with the Percy uncertainty his price isn’t getting any bigger.
If he was trained by Pat Kelly he’d be evens
Kempton is not his track and he was stuffed by Tea for Two before he won Hennessy, Welsh National and Gold Cup. Ignore that run.
11/2 is incredible value - especially e/w.
I think you need to take that today as if Clan blows out (he can throw in a shocker) and with the Percy uncertainty his price isn’t getting any bigger.
If he was trained by Pat Kelly he’d be evens
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What price is heany appearing in the going for the third time in 50 years ?
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Dont need heavy
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He’s never won on Heavy ? If you implying he needs soft.
He was beaten 2 lengths on good going in 2017 and won by 5 lengths on soft going. Also won Hennessy on pretty much good going as well. |
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Yeh, its a myth that people who dont look at the form bang on about.
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I agree about the price of Native River - 11/2 does not represent his true credential; he ought to be fav. And if CDO re-affirms his convincing win in the King George today his price will tumble - 10/1 is way to big.
Only the ground after the last fence was a bit of a slog - it was soft all round - according to Hendo, whose concern for Might Bite was vindicated. |
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Native River will need it heavy to have any chance.He has lost the pace he had last year.He won't be racing anywhere the front this time cause he's just too slow.He will be plugging on in the last mile if its heavy and they go hard. That's his only hope.
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Seemed to prominent or leading most of the race at Haydock (when Clan was 4th). Is your post based on his run at Xmas at Kempton where he’s been beaten miles both runs there ?
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Was he not beaten a mile out that day?
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He will be setting or up with the pace pushing it.
Both times at Kempton in the Feltham and King George are surely wrote off ?? Track don't suit, better left handed |
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He's a far better horse on soft or heavy. On good ground he will get left behind
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Left behind by who ?
Name at least one horse. |
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He may well do when the race hots up but he led to 3 out in the Gold Cup 2 years ago and still stuck on to only get beaten about 3L, that was on good ground.
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Don Cossack started fav but fell in the King George against Vautour and Cue Card; pushed out to 15 (here) and 11/1 with the Tote after; won the Gold Cup as fav after Vautour chickened out - Cue Card fell.
But for connections of Native River (NR) blinded by the £1m bonus I believe NR would have had a more appropriate campaign for the Gold Cup, maybe even running in Ireland than the Betfair and King George chases. |
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He couldn't win the 1m bonus after the Betfair Chase and still went to Kempton so that had no bearing on their decision, some connection be it owner or trainer wanted to go to Kempton for whatever reason.
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He did but he hasn't the same sparkle about him this season as last. Hibore, he'll get left behind by the entire field if its good ground. If its soft or heavy he might just hold a prominent position but probably under sufferance.
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I was always under the impression
that the clerks of the courses in England avoid putting firm or heavy as the going because the races would fall apart when half the fields don't turn up that surface at cheltenham last year wasn't heavy it was fecking heavy |
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having said that , the horse is very very good
as we now all know but rocco put him in his place ! |
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So lets ignore his form on decent ground,at least you can feel justified then.
Lets ignore his form left handed which is much better than right handed,you can feel justified then as well. Lets take huge notice of his KG form,feel even more justified?? Or......lets look at where he runs his best races,and be fair to the horse. |
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To add, lets look properly at the ground hes ran his best races on.
Good ranging to soft/heavy. So basically, he runs his best races left handed on various ground,in races that require stamina in abundance. A lot of them at Cheltenham, including two Gold Cups. Care to compare all that with the current fav??? |
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He's the forgotten horse because of ill-judged prep races skewed by monetary preoccupation this season. The weather forecast for Cheltenham is dry this week, but next week will see precipitation of over 50mm; NR, CDO and PP all prefer softish ground.
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id expect it to be placed- dont think its quite same horse so dont see it winning
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How firm is that going to be come Friday, It's like Summer now on the back of a dry Winter with no rain in sight.
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cant see it winning definite lay for me
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Not the same horse? It's possible, but then again he's not had his conditions eg ground and/or track so far.The long range 14 day forecast encompassing the Festival will be known next monday. Nevertheless, 50mm is a lot of rain a week prior to Cheltenham, I think.
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nah wont do it again ..plodder too many better horses coming up,, had its day in th sun
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Why did they run him in the KG.?
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Place money, I presume, but never again if he stays in training next season, I firmly believe. And no Betfair Chase either as it is too early in the season; he's also getting a bit long-in-the-tooth too with young proven/up-and-coming horses aplenty eg CDO, Altior, Cyrname and possibly PP (diplomatically inserted to ensure entente cordiale) on the forum.
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Good question Duffy
All i can think is that it fit in to their prep, cos he was never going to win that race. 3m round Kempton?? Cant think of a race around that distance less suited to his strengths. |
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Never read so much rubbish. Plodder ?
He’s 9 years old and only run 4 times in last two seasons. That is 3 less races than Presenting Percy. 3 Runs left handed and 1 right handed. Easily wins Newbury prep. Wins Gold Cup in absolute classic renewal thrashing the best of Ireland after 2 miles with all of them struggling to keep up. The ground was soft not heavy with the final 100 yards only part of course you can describe as worse ground. Runs at Haydock attempting to win million bonus. Runs well even though not suited to big fences and tight track. However, puts Clan in his place and if you watch the race again was he ever going to beat him ? Johnson says before King George that finishing in top 3 would be great run with ack not playing to his strengths. Runs well enough after being nearly last coming into straight finishing strongly into 3rd. Presenting Percy can’t beat him on form through Our Duke or ANY Chase form he’s run. He’s been beaten in 2 of his 5 chases including 150 rated Jury Duty. CDO looks much improved this year but to me looks like more of a “Park” horse to me. High cruising speed and nice turn of foot. Is he now far superior to the horse that beat him comprehensively 2 months ago?? Has he improved two stone or is more the tracks he’s run at. Anyone see luck on Sunday ? The question to Sam TD was would you ride Clan or Percy.....neither I’d ride Native River was his reply and agreed with by Ruth Jefferson and Lee Mottershead. The biggest threat to Native River this year was Coneygree. Now he’s not running I’m very confident. |
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Native river is without doubt one of the best horses around , but you have to accept the win last year was on heavy ground. Given the same ground he has to be respected but soft heavy in places doesn't happen all that often at Cheltenham so for me he's ground dependent.
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hard to win back to back gold cups,hasnt done a lot wrong this season,should at least place if running to his best although have feeling mullins will finally win it
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Percy’s win was on Heavy as well then ?
The fact is the run in past the final fence was bottomless after 24 races on it (Johnson said it so did De Bonville). The rest of the track new and old was soft. |
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I see people are still saying NR is ground dependant.
No matter that the formbook tells us different. Oh well!! |
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Maybe what we have here, is because of lack of substantial evidence for PP winning the Gold Cup,his supporters are trying to pick holes in his main opposition.
Cannot think of any other reason why they ignore the formbook. |
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I really don't know who will win the Gold Cup. It looks wide open to me. There are lots of improving, unexposed types and I believe one of these will probably win.
Native River wouldn't make my shortlist though, on anything other than heavy this year. He sure is ground dependent, ie a much better horse on soft ground than good ground. Show me some hard evidence that he has the same level of ability on all surfaces.The formbook tells me his best ever performance, by some way, was in last season's soft ground Gold Cup. He has run 9 times in open class over fences,and on 3 different surfaces. He is 4 from 4 on soft, 1 from 2 on good to soft and 0 from 3 on good ground. |
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Ok,so finishing a close up 3rd in a Gold Cup aint good enough for you.That run behind SJ could be good enough this year for all we know!!
Just because he did not win,does not mean he did not run a big race,therefore proving he is NOT ground dependant. |
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Maybe their are others in the race that ARE ground dependant though,ones that dont act on soft as NR does.
Maybe that confuses people.....something must be,because the formbook clearly says NR runs big races on all surfaces,some he wins some he is close to winning. |
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I don’t deny soft ground would be his preference as it puts more emphasis on stamina which is his weapon.
Last year’s relentless tempo had 99% of thefield beaten by halfway. No one crabs Denman for not cruising around on the bridle ? However the 2017 Gold Cup was on good ground and he was beaten 2 lengths in standard time +1sec. You can’t run that fast if you don’t act on it. Percy the young pretender has won his two Cheltenham races with very poor time figures. He was 8 secs slower than standard on good ground in 2017 and 35 secs slow on soft last year. That’s no saying he can’t run faster....But he has to to figure. |
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I wonder how much CDO has improved in three months??
Three months ago is when NR beat him on good ground. Now i aint sure if CDO is suited to Haydock,but i do know NR aint. Another thing i do know......3m2f round Cheltenham suits NR down to the ground.....whatever the ground is on the day,as proven. |