May not be a Chelt fez 2019 yet if this is as bad as first looks ...

Yes you cannot contain flu in a few days- hoping it's just a week but what yards are affected??

Surely it will be cancelled indefinitely then, nothing is going to change in one day.

Doesn't look good. No information on the origins of the three affected horses. Hope they weren't from different stables. In any case I can see a lockdown lasting weeks if not months.

Looks like all three were from McCain's yard.

The problem seems to be about the vaccine not working. If they find that a bad batch of vaccine is the culprit then they might be able to resume. Otherwise it could be weeks.

I could get paid thousands in my antepost non runners

Sporting Life : "The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) made the decision on Wednesday night after the Animal Health Trust confirmed three positives tests from vaccinated horses in an active racing yard."

Racing Post : "This is following the BHA being informed this evening by the Animal Health Trust of three confirmed Equine Influenza positives from vaccinated horses in an active racing yard.

Horses from the infected yard have raced today at Ayr and Ludlow,"


In summary, Life talks about 3 positive tests, Post refers to horses from one affected yard. McCain had a runner at each track but only 2 in total so either it's not his yard or the journalism is rubbish. Either way it seems odd that Thurles is going ahead as Elliot has numerous runners declared and had numerous runners at Ayr including one in the race where McCain's horse trailed in last.

Unless the tests were performed on 3 McCain horses at home and not including those that ran yesterday.

Let's not be too pessimistic.

Losing Cheltenham would be just about the biggest disaster you could get. I am sure everyone will realise that and do everything possible to make sure it doesn't happen.

The immediate problem is for those horses who may well be forced to miss a prep run. Several high profile names amongst that list. If Ireland continues to race then they might have an advantage, particularly as they have just had their main trial's meetings.

It's not just whether the festival goes ahead, it could still go ahead but if connections have been disrupted with regards to prep runs and training regimes leading up to it how satisfactory will it be, lots of contenders might not even turn up if they're not ready...who knows???

foot and mouth wiped out one festival, and now this

If they don't find any new cased by Tuesday next, they may decide to resume on Thursday 14th but if there are some positives in any other yard we could be in for a very long break.

Duffy
Thinking that myself
The runners on Saturday must be affected in relation to the festival.
Has to be a negative for the likes of NR and CDO chances in the Gold Cup for example.
They will be running to put themselves spot on for March,and no doubt others as well.
All about timing for some horses preps.

bud,

They're trained to the minute aren't they, how many times do we hear that such and such missed one gallop and that cost it, well missing a run must be a huge negative, and we don't even know how long racing will be off for yet, they've called racing off until Wednesday at the earliest, that's buying time but I wouldn't be at all surprised if in the next few days there is a further announcement extending the cancellation and we'll be 4 weeks away at that point.

Absolutely mate.
We have Ascot next Saturday and Kempton the week after,these would probably be the last realistic dates with Cheltenham in mind.
Horse that needed a race this weekend could be entered in either of those meetings,but the races scheduled have to suit the horses.
Guess they could reschedule some of the races at Newbury this weekend for Ascot next week?
Also the option for all weather jumper bumpers?

The problem is though is that how can they even think about rescheduling when they don't even know how long the cancellation is going to last, I'm half expecting a further delay to be announced in the coming days.

This has come on the back of a Winter where many horses have already missed engagements due to unsuitable ground.

Twice in recent years this Newbury fixture was postponed 2011 frost 2012 electric on both occasions the Denman Chase and the Betfair hurdle were ran at Newbury the following friday

Yes but they were isolated situations, we don't even know the extent to what we're dealing with here, racing is off until next Wednesday at the earliest!!

Yeh, fair points.
What a mess!!!

I think it would not affect NR and CDO; the former only had one run prior to winning at Cheltenham last season; the latter, according to trainer, would not want a fight with NR in the Denman, and go well fresh.

I just hope Cheltenham goes ahead otherwise all the hard work and effort put into assembling my antepost portfolio (goodies) would be in vain. Of course the welfare of the horses come 1st, but the bookies........nah!

Nicholls said the race would put CDO ripe for the festival,or words to that affect.
NR ran at Newbury last season.
I completely disagree,think both horses wanted this race for their festival chances,which is why they were entered.

^
absolutely

Duffy if racing resumes on Wednesday then I should think Newbury would take place at some stage failing that the Denman Chase or something similar will be run soon after the restart .

Lets hope so Foxy
Must admit right now i aint confident at all we will be racing next weekend.

Fingers crossed bud a big worry is if it does drag on the Irish may stop there horses coming over as they were going to in 2001 before we were silenced by the lambs

Ante-post bets are subject to all sorts of stupid rules if Chelts is postponed. It's time to read the small
print on every AP voucher you hold, if this carries on.

no action berfore 13 Feb is the latest

99% of all antepost bets carry the same rule, if a race is rescheduled to run at the same venue all bets stand run or not, if cancelled indefinitely or rescheduled at a different venue i.e betfair hdl at Ascot lets say all antepost are void including any non runners.

I hope they put it on for my pocket as i'm sitting on 10/1 & 17/2 Al Dancer and Getaway Trump but also 25/1 Lisp and 33/1 Countister each way of course

Welfare of the horses come first though just to be clear i have done a couple non runners too namely Thomas Darby and Grand Sancy

I'm also sitting on one of my worst Chelters portfolios of many a year having many early season wagers wiped out before the end of January which don't happen often, in fact ever

Feck the bets

31 a hit that vaccine


Who do you sue ? The vet or the drug company about to brexit ?

Cough and flu dont know the horses
Are k g or gold cup winners
It spreads like wildfire
It will be over here now
Guaranteed .....

I know a guy who is heavily into Beuver dere apples jade ( mares  ) And Altior treble pays him 22k think he staked about 750 he’s been telling every one his bet is as good as up,that is untill Apples Jade was decided to run in the champion hurdle

how will they  they contain it ? isolation hopefully  but as irishone says it spreads like wildfire  and the horse may have bolted to coin a phrase
! and a  vet  on bbc tv has just said its like all flu can be carried on clothes ,equipment ,airborne etc

The very fact we know about it means they havent contained it
They cant afford for this to get out
All paperwork over here is designed to track down exactly where equine diseases start.
Trouble is owners trainers have to keep them up to date
If it was one the trainer could have contained it
He wouldnt want this
The fact its evolved has meant he couldnt contain it quietly within the stable
The stables who had horses running in the same races will be being closely watched but by the time the containment infra structure has been put in placd the virus would havebeen spread

If it is a new strain , how long to produce a suitable vaccine?

It takes forever to produce new vaccines because the pharmaceuticals can't be bothered as there is no money in it for them, unlike in humans the horse population isn't great enough for them to be incentivised enough to produce new vaccines.

I suggest anyone who hasn't done so already listening to the most recent "Final Furlong" podcast where they were joined by a Veterinary officer from the IHRB who deals with the issue.

Lemsip works on ponies

Another case up north now

Whats yer gut feeling Irish?
Mine is a bit pessimistic to be honest

What's that 7 unofficially .....?

Oh dear ...

However, a backlash is emerging to the (some would say) over the top knee-jerk response of the BHB to equine flu ('not Ebola!' as one leading Equine Vetinary practise tweeted today)

3 more confirmed cases, hopefully there will be none from other yards in the next 3 or 4 days otherwise this could rumble on and on.

Sorry for stating the obvious but my gut feeling isn't a good one so i will keep it to myself

it's over guys. time to move on to the 2020 renewal and hope we boost the vaccines by then

on a more serious note, I was watching a documentary the other night explaining how antibiotics aren't always working anymore because we've overused them... they are also used to treat animals as well. although this is separate from this, maybe it's in a way part of the same problem?

Same with me STS.
I'm just hoping for some good news.......somewhen!!

However, a backlash is emerging to the (some would say) over the top knee-jerk response of the BHB to equine flu ('not Ebola!' as one leading Equine Vetinary practise tweeted today)

think they are terrified by the implications of the festival being cancelled. that's become such a big thing now that it's bigger than the game itself, it seems.

The problem that we've got at the moment is that we are living at a highly sensitive time, particularly in relation to horse "welfare" add into that the continual BHA blunders and you end up with a situation where the BHA want to be seen to be right on top of this and want to look like the knights in shining armour that save our festival and such like, it also though gives rise to potential over-reactions from them.

In 2003 there was a larger outbreak in Newmarket and we knew little about it and racing was not cancelled.

Between March and May 2003, equine influenza virus infection was confirmed as the cause of clinical respiratory disease among both vaccinated and unvaccinated horses of different breeds and types in at least 12 locations in the UK. In the largest outbreak, 21 thoroughbred training yards in Newmarket, with more than 1300 racehorses, were affected, with the horses showing signs of coughing and nasal discharge during a period of nine weeks. Many of the infected horses had been vaccinated during the previous three months with a vaccine that contained representatives from both the European (A/eq/Newmarket/2/93) and American (A/eq/Newmarket/1/93) H3NN8 influenza virus lineages. Antigenic and genetic characterisation of the viruses from Newmarket and elsewhere indicated that they were all closely related to representatives of a sublineage of American viruses, for example, Kentucky/5/02, the first time that this sublineage had been isolated in the uk. In the recently vaccinated racehorses in Newmarket the single radial haemolysis antibody levels in acute sera appeared to be adequate, and there did not appear to be significant antigenic differences between the infecting virus and A/eq/Newmarket/1/93, the representative of the American lineage virus present in the most widely used vaccine, to explain the vaccine failure. However, there was evidence for significantly fewer infections among two-year-old horses than older animals, despite their having similar high levels of antibody, consistent with a qualitative rather than a quantitative difference in the immunity conveyed by the vaccination.

What a bunch doom mongers. I doubt there are any experts on here and the white flag is already out.

6 confirmed cases in one yard. You could be excused for thinking it was 6,000 if you read this thread.

The BHA are the doom mongers, the point I've just made (badly obviously) is that the BHA are so scared of their own shadow and what the wider public are going to say that they've jumped all over it in an effort to give themselves some decent PR for a change.

Fair point Duffy - they had to be seen to be doing something but what a PR disaster it will be if they do cancel Cheltenham.

Like differentdrum says (yeah,feel the love, brothers I'm in a good mood tonight) none of us have a scooby about any of this, but FWIW I can't see how the flu can shut down racing's biggest festival of the year. It might cut the fields down (and surely it's down to the owners & trainers after blood tests and their usual pre-race checks to decide if their horse should run or not), it might render the form book useless and it might mean some strange performances / winners over the 4 days, but I genuinely can't see the BHB shutting down the Festival

It is not foot and mouth again and, it is not Ebola.

Do horses die of it? I know people do (not of the equine variety, I hope).

The BHA have already blinked and started off down the wrong road by shutting racing down, they may find that hard to do a turnabout if there is anything less than a 100% all clear and this raises the problem of what the impact of further delays will have going forward.

It may all be sorted by the time the festival comes round but if a stack of runners have missed their preps beforehand and are therefore not ready then the festival itself becomes potentially farcical.

We can't afford to miss any more weekends.

The BBC are loving this by the way, listening to their latest news report you'd think the population was facing extinction.

Well that's the BBC for you.

Not a peep from the quoting someone like Nigel Twiston-Davies who is calling this a 'massive over reaction' pointing out, quite correctly, that all stables usually have a couple of horses under the weather that they check with blood tests and tracheal washes and if they come back negative, they don't run them.

This is not strangles or equine herpes that can kill horses.

"They get sick, but not that sick – just a snotty nose and temperature."

Newmarket Vet Peter Ramzan also states:

"We can expect some poor-performing yards and more respiratory disease than usual, but as with previous episodes it will pass, vaccines will get updated and we’ll then have another extended period of relative health in the population.

"I can understand a degree of nervousness on the part of the regulator, who have to be seen to be doing the right thing, and it's understandable it wishes to find out more, but this can be achieved through surveillance swabbing without mandating a shutdown of racing or of individual yards.

"Trainers by and large use their common sense and nobody chooses to send sick horses to the races."

Its not an over reaction lads..... If any of you own horses you will know....they are chucking a bucket of water on a burning bale of hay. It takes horses 4 to 6. weeks to get over it..... The more tests positive at different yards the worse it gets. If you have one horse in a field of forty with it they will all have it in no time. They are doing the best they can, they have to, basic p r crisis management. They probably have a p r company telling them what to say. Not looking good

What of the 2003 outbreak then that we heard nothing of and racing continued without it all falling down, it's the current climate of fear of the animal rights brigade driving this...nothing more.

Irishone got his bollocks on the festival to be cancelled by the looks of things

yup

will be fine ffs

Ive got my b0llox on n air fare, a hotel for three nights and a hired car morelike

I think the festival will still be on,but like all of us on here i dont know for sure.
So people having differing views should be expected.
Just because we want it on,dont mean someone cant come on here expressing doubts.

End of the day, decisions will be made in the interests of horses welfare,not our desire to have the festival.

Joined: 22 Sep 06
| Topic/replies: 40,490 | Blogger: irishone's blog
Its not an over reaction lads..... If any of you own horses you will know....they are chucking a bucket of water on a burning bale of hay. It takes horses 4 to 6. weeks to get over it..... The more tests positive at different yards the worse it gets. If you have one horse in a field of forty with it they will all have it in no time. They are doing the best they can, they have to, basic p r crisis management. They probably have a p r company telling them what to say. Not looking good
would you ever get a grip,if 1 has it they will all get it ahh grow up ffs

these stable shutdowns  excuse my ignorance ,does it mean no gallops or working of horses on home gallops and the like ?

hey have to, basic p r crisis management. They probably have a p r company telling them what to say. Not looking good

If they have then they're being badly advised in strictly PR terms, because, whilst on Thursday afternoon, the BHB might have given the impression of taking charge and being in control, they have left themselves nowhere to go now.

So say that a few (defne that as you like) stables have horses that come back with positive signs of flu. This would be expected anyway and trainers would put them on the asy list, definitely not run them and test them to ensure they are fit to run again.

Now, this will be used as evidence for a longer shutdown of racing - even though there is absolutly no restrictions on movements of the rest of the horse population. But hey, it gives a great impression that the BHB are in control, even though what they're suggesting is as much use as t1ts on a fish.

I repeat. This is not foot and mouth Mk2.

Not Ignorant Foyles,nobody seems to have a clue.

I would guess that 99% yards are doing nothing different,just monitoring horses daily,as they would do throughout the year,working them as normal.

There are a few things here that confuse me,forgive my naivety.

If every racehorse has been vaccinated,surely they must be the lowest risk group in the country ?

Imagine a few ringing into work with flu,they say fine,and shut down the whole 16,000 odd company.

That may not be the best analogy,but thats how it looks to me as an outsider.

Of course it opens up a whole can of worms,just what and how are they testing ?

If it includes blood tests,white cell and red cell blood counts would be a given.

Just how many of these yards want their horses tested,at short notice.

If the break is designed to allow for testing,no issue with that at all.

As stated above,what do you do if those tests do highlight a certain % of horses are positive ?

Have the BHB backed themselves into a corner ? Interesting to see how this pans out.

"The BHA has announced that "there have been no further positive samples returned" from 720 swabs tested to date for equine flu by the Animal Health Trust of the 2,100 received". (Sporting Life website, live as of now)

Your move BHB, having, effectively, marched us all to the top of the hill.....

Good news !

Interesting with luck on sunday. Mild clinical signs, inconsistent swabs, ireland still racing after case found here, different strain behaving differently, all the hallmarks of a mess

The animal health trust have not been doing the swabs....down to the trainers

10 reported in total now .... Tip of the iceberg ...1.01 nap

Yeah, and if they tested every month for the past 20 years they'd have probably found 10 cases, if they are going to wait until there are no cases then there will be no racing again, they must be brave and resume racing WITH positive cases, it is not armageddon.

The relatively few number of cases presents an even greater challenge to the BHB.

I'd have been amazed if the authorities hadn't found further cases in the rachorse population, but what is the threshold level for a further cancellation of racing? Four? Forty? Four Hundred?

Meanwhile DEFRA have not initiated any mandatory preventitive measures in the general horse population, so whilst racing continues to be in the vanguard of being seen to be doing something and feeling very important about itself, practically (fully prepared to admit my technical limitations here) it's achieving nothing.

Like I said, they've matched everyone up to the top of the hill and now there's nowhere left for them to go - sure, they got a short-term PR plus last Wednesday. Now what?

Meanwhile jockeys, valets, horse-box hiring companies....the whole racing supply chain away from the high-profile operators such as the courses themselves, bookmakers owners & trainers....continue to suffer.