Cheltenham Festival
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01 Dec 18
17:45
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07 Sep 15
Santini put up a scintillating performance winning at Newbury today; jumped well but for one. He's only 4/1 for this; next nominated race is the Kauto Star Novices at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Have we seen the winner of this race? He'll go very close, all being well, I believe.
Have we seen the winner of this race? He'll go very close, all being well, I believe.
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Scintillating? I presume you have backed him?
The horses he beat today would be a million in an RSA and today's second favourite, Kilbricken Storm, has run a shocker. I don't think he did much more than confirm he could jump on slow ground. Race already discussed under 2018 thread below. |
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Yes, I have only for a small stake at 4/1 as I was impressed with his jumping just as I was with Lalor; Kilbricken Storm under-performed (rather not jumped) nevertheless, Santini could only do as much to win. Santini (if memory serves) was not quite right at Cheltenham when fav, but atoned at Aintree a few weeks later.
Maybe one from across Ireland could be even more scintillating but until then 4/1 is a fair price, I think. |
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most impressive
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Forget what he beat, at this stage what you're looking for is technique and the visual impression the horse gives you, the horse delivered in some style today IMO and I was greatly impressed with him...wouldn't go as far to say scintillating, but he was bloody good.
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Catch Me ifyoucan • December 2, 2018 3:47 PM GMT
Davy - we have a lot of very “big guns” to come out yet, there are some great beginners chases to come in Ireland (when asked about Delta Work for JLT or RSA. |
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If you fancy Santini I would have major concerns about his flop at last year's Festival. He never looked like winning at any stage and I haven't read any excuses for the performance. Delta Work produced a way better performance over a trip short of his best. He has also shown that winning at Cheltenham isn't an issue. Hype is the only reason Santini is the current favourite.
I would take little notice of public comments from Russell as he tends to play down everything. You would get as much useful information off JP. They won't have any bigger guns than Delta Work and it is obvious that an extra half mile would see him in an even better light. |
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Understatement that Nico did not give Santani a great ride in the AB. Never really put in race and always kept mid div before staying on up the hill.Must say I'd like to see him ridden like Denman in his RSA. Get up front.... use his seemingly good jumping to keep others at bay.... as he has proven twice that he comes up the hill etc..
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I believe Santini was rushed for Cheltenham and underperformed in the Albert Bartlett; Nico looked after him too. But he atoned big time at Aintree though.
I like the way Santini seemed to flick over his fences, apart from one; his opposition were no slouch either. Until another one catches my eye I'll have him as my main bet for this race. |
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Newbury form repeated at cheltenham ?
Would you compare a sheet of hardboard to a sheet of corrugated iron ? |
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the best winner of the novice chase won by santini on saturday was barton bank but in those days the race took place at worcester.
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They must have moved the Worcester Novice chase from the Friday. I was involved with Lucky Bay who won it in 2002 beating Joly Bey and One Knight who went on to win the RSA that season.
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Cracking Smart is staying over hurdles says Gordon Elliot.
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Santini's next race is the Kauto Star Novices Chase (Feltham) on Boxing Day at Kempton. It could be a good day for Hendo with Buveur D'Air and Might Bite later.
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That isn't going to tell you what you need to know.
The horse was exposed in the AB last year Exposed by the track and the pace Neither conquerer that day has turned cartwheels since Kempton, Newbury and Aintree are galloping flat tracks Milan's need a gallop and as for jumping .....not the greatest of records |
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Irish I totally disagree,I just think the horse was inexperienced at Cheltenham more than anything. Remember they were going to miss it altogether
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Think all novices are learning bud, don't think he liked the hill and thought nico gave him a decent ride,not sure he gets 24f at Cheltenham. It was his ground as well last year.
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Chuck Vinndication into this thread now, after his win yesterday and Kim Bailey saying the RSA was more the plan than the JLT.
Still to go left-handed (and The Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown is reportedly next so if Cheltenham is the plan, then that'll be his first shot that way round0 and probably needs plenty of rain but.....take it away gentlemen! |
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Sandown r handed ?
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Yeah - if they do the Scilly Isles Chase THEN go the the Fez, THAT (The RSA) will be the first try left-handed.
Hope I've explained it okay! |
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I am not convinced that Santini is the real deal . Not yet , anyway . Both The Worlds End and Bags Groove could be better .
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If Topofthegame behaves himself at the start he looks a class above these to me.
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All about opinions. I am trying to get a price Santini Gold Cup 2020...!
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Santini could be very good but Topofthegame was second in the Coral final under a big weight and his second to Defi du Seul over 2.3 miles after losing 25 lengths at the start with Black Op behind was awesome.
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Got Topofthegame in front of Santini but it was one of those days for me with seconds in the Kauto Star and KG. As far as Cheltenham is concerned I would still be with Topofthegame.
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Crazy that Delta Work wasn't favourite for this before today and even crazier now.
His form was already better than Santini before the confirmation from Le Richebourg. Santini never looked likely and was flattered to finish as close as he did. He looked slow. Usual Cheltenham ground and likely he will be in trouble. That said the slog last year should have suited and he never looked likely to win that race either. He remains no value whatsoever. I would have thought it is likely that La Bague Au Roi will miss the Festival. |
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The confidence in santini is Henderson based
Can't believe he's still at the top of the market |
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Santini reminds to Bob's Worth alot of similarities. I don't know if it's the bookies being cautious but I would still be willing to bet him at chelt if the price was right
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Really happy with a bet of 19 Topofthegame on here straight after Exeter. He should be clear fav. of the UK runners at least.
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I think Bobs Worth always looked more straightforward than Santini does. He also trotted up in an Albert Bartlett and he was also able to beat Sire De Grugy in a two mile hurdle on good ground. Other than they are trained by Henderson I can't see too many similarities.
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I think Cheltenham will suit Santini more than the front two yesterday given a quicker pace and more testing track; the uphill finish could play into his hand too.
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Even as a supporter I don't think you could say that Delta Work did anything other than get the job done.
His jumping in the early stages was nothing like as good as the previous starts, particularly in the early stages, and he could easily have been brought down. That said he was good at the last three fences and he was strong from the last to the line. He is now about the right price. |
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delta seemed to be a lot better in the jumping department when they were going at pace
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the other giggi runner would have given delta a race if he had met the last better dont know if he woulda won tho!
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Delta Work.............Different Angle
Kemboy 6yr old 6m 6.5 secs Delta Work 5yr old 6m 2.3 secs Same weight Same ground Same distance Same amount fences Add in your jumping analysis,and the fact he was hampered on the first circuit. Then think of him beating Kemboy by 4.2 secs in the savills. His performance on 29th December 2018,for a novice,can be summed up in one word. Sensational. |
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As I have said I really like Delta Work but I can't take that comparison, interesting as it might be, as a reasonable guide regarding their relative merits.
I fully appreciate time analysis has become the new left field but it will never do that much for me. I assume they went pretty slowly in the early stages of the Kemboy race which would presumably account for the difference. Despite the overall time I am happy to stick with the original thought that Kemboy was far more impressive than Delta Work. |
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cant have santini personally , anyone a view on Vindication?
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david mullins said they went very very slow ,even when we took it up we still went slow ,no one took us on !" kemboy should improve he could be a serious horse "................
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my thoughts would be to take the form of the savills with caution !
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how is delta work a bigger price than santini?
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