Cheltenham Festival
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2018 - Handicaps
2018 - Handicaps
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I cant stop backing Flying Tiger in the County. Unbelievable rick on his mark imo.
Call Me Lord currently allotted 11-08 and Flying Tiger 10-10, despite the fact FT finished 1/2l behind him in the Kingwell giving him 2lb. We know he will handle better ground and the Festival. My biggest handicap winner of the week by some margin now. |
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If you like Flying Tiger then you must surely also like Divin Bere in the same race. He's better off with Flying Tiger for a narrow beating in last year's Fred Winter and appears to have been laid out for the race.
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The Irish won 7 out of 10 handicaps at last year's Festival and yet the consensus seems to be that Phil Smith has been even more lenient when assessing the Irish handicap entries this year. Time will tell.
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I have had a very small saver Cash.
There is ebing laid out, and there is running absolutely awfully both times this season! Huge leap of faith to think he's going to bounce back to his best after those two runs. He is only 4lb better off... I thought FT was good value for more than the winning margin and at least we know FT has trained on. But take your point of course... |
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this Squouateur seems very close to the cut off to me, people will be sweating on him making it but looks tight to me
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The fixation with McManus owned horses in Festival handicaps is surely yesterday's news?
Hard to believe that Squouateur is a "talking horse" for a third consecutive Festival. It makes one want to weep. |
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i haven't an interest and i certainly wouldn't call my comments a fixation in mcmanus horses, just an obseervation and he is a short price fav...
so you don't feel he is well handicapped cash is king? |
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I stuck him up on last years handicap thread, he went ok but was beat when he fell...he's gotten people excited again this year but wouldn't be for me this time around.
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CashisKIng is a moron and don't listen to him! JP has had 50 festival winners so ignore them at your peril or if your stupid. Work it out!
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Any Second Now ( yes he's a JP horse!) has a UK rating of 145. I'm very confident that mark isn't beyond him and I expect a much improved performance from him some day very soon.
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Groan!
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I'm still happy to stand by my non-McManus list posted on 14 February (although I suspect Diego Du Charmil will be aimed at the Grand Annual rather than the novice handicap).
I hope that Calett Mad runs in the Pertemps off a potentially lenient mark of 142 but suspect connections will be tempted by the Grade 1 riches on offer in the Albert Bartlett. I'm intrigued to see that Dell Arca has secured a mark of 145 and is eligible for the Martin Pipe race. I can't see David Pipe having too many runners at the Festival this year and I wonder if Dell Arca can fend off the younger, less exposed types and finally secure a win (at 66/1) in a race the trainer must surely want to win one year. |
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How many peoples bets still look good?
I had misterton nrnb so will be getting the money back bt gutted no run. |
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I'm also very keen on Diego Du Charmil. I think you could be right re Grand Annual, though I was a bit disappointed that he never got a mention during the stable open day the other day. They were very keen on Movewiththetimes for the novice handicap though, so I suspect Diego will stay at 2 miles.
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The fact he wasn't mentioned in the stable tour is a tip in itself with that outfit.
Previous festival winner, still only 6yo and on a workable mark. Wherever he turns up, I'll be backing him. |
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Diego du Charmil was my first antepost bet in a handicap. Simply has to be the Grand Annual. He's a pure two miler. Also, PN has Movewiththetimes with a big chance in the 2m4f handicap and will be splitting his decent hopes up for sure.
Cant really believe hes still 25/1 and thats NRNB with Bet365. |
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Yes, he was pushed out to 25s yesterday. I've taken advantage. Should be much shorter.
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Yes i like the looks of Diego i also like the look of another who had a nice run round last time against a high profile horse ( altior ) this ones called Valdez and he is 20/1
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Apologies AC, I realise i just repeated everything you said!
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Haha. No worries. Good to have confirmation that I'm thinking along the right lines.
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So who’s organising the 2018 forum plunge?
It looks like we have DDC under consideration already....... |
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Crikey. I've copped enough flak already for my comments with regard to the excessive attention that McManus' handicap entries command and, on another thread, the reasons why fewer forumites bother to post on these forums. I think I'd better keep my thoughts on the subject of the "forum plunge" to myself this year!
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Cash, Mcmanus owns approx 500 horses in training, and most of them are handicappers. If i thought something was handicapped to win then it doesn't bother me in the slightest who the owner is, but its far more likely to be owned by him than anybody else.
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Ah yes the forum pluinge, it has to be done again.
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le breuil......the moneys coming for the horse, come on boy!!!!
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I've done a little retirement bet on Movewiththetimes (14s), Gold Present (10s), Le Breuil (20s), Bouvreuil (20s) and Divin Bere (33s). Will be surprised if I get more than one of them up but it's nice that for once it looks like I'll have 5 runners!!
What do people think of Oistrakh me Noir for the Fred Winter and Sort it Out for the Pertemps? |
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I'm going to be place laying gold present, not because I have a strong view one way or another, but I know he's going to be way way shorter than he probably should be, someone said the other day that yorkhill is most talked about, well i'd counter that with gold present, i'm sick to death of hearing his bloody name!!
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You will be hearing his name for many moons after your lay!!!
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I'm a bit of a novice at this game Duffy I admit that, but place laying a horse you have no strong opinion is pretty bold!
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Not so much at the festival it isn't, he looks like he could go off 6 or 7/1 and with the obvious momentum that is building it's going to probably take him too short for a ultra competitive handicap chase.
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I don't like that word probably in there.
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Just read the latest of Lydia Hislop's "Road to Cheltenham" articles and she says "Gold Present missed his intended start at Ascot last month due to a bruised foot and trainer Nicky Henderson has seemingly suggested he misses the Festival (in which he’s still favourite for the Ultima) in favour of the Grand National.".
duffy you might just get your wish ! |
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Nicky said he only missed a few days over the bruised foot and would take in the Ultima on the way to the Grand National, he said had the Ascot race been a few days later it would have been no problem and then he'd not have ran at Cheltenham and gone straight to Aintree but seen as he missed Ascot he will take Cheltenham in. That's what I read.
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Thanks for the update. Much appreciated. Way too short for such a competitive handicap for my liking. I like Royal Vacation and Singlefarmpayment who is a bit short but reckon will get a lot shorter as he went off at 5/1Fav last year when second beaten a shd.
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Gold Present and the 2 you mention where my shortlist for the race
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I like Henderson's other one OO7 in the ultima. Has run well all season. Think he's been prepared for this and I've no worries on his stamina. Ideally he could be a couple of pounds lower...
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HaylingBilly, Duffy wouldn't have got his wish, he's laying on the day...so no bet.
Duffy, feeling the way you do then your strategy should have been to take the 10-1 nrnb then lay him on the day. I agree he'll be shorter on the day maybe 9-2 if Pricewise tips him. He's already tipped him for National. |
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Surely Powersbomb must be a bet in the Grand Annual,horse off for a while but Rock the World done it last yr and the McManus horse two yrs previous. His mark has been static after running well in the Close Bros(personally I don't think he got home) last yr but Tully East,Gold Present,Last Good bye & Two Taffs weight has all increased drastically.
331 still available with 25s NRNB. |
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33s *
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If you are looking at hcaps at this stage then you could do far worse then spend the next 18 mins listening to the views of the official hacappers on how they see the cut off point in each hacp and compare them to previous festivals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loeCrEmF7zc |