Might Bite to jump and run 'em ragged!

rocco is inconsistent but if you respect native river you have to respect rocco , he needs a thorough test and might bite will give him that

that was a great day , dereck didnt know he had the mount until a few days before , better ride than the athenry horse in the amateur four miler chicgo grey s
Him and coddy are way above the likes of so many eng!ish jockeys !

Any MB backers getting a tad nervous?
If you are, watch the RSA again.I just have.
Blimey that was impressive, strung them out from a long way out.
Might want to close your eyes for a few seconds after the last, but open them up again and see how he gets going again right to the line.
Watching that again makes me more confident he will get home fine,and a darn sight better than any horse trying to take him on.......imo.

I did the same last week Budd & then proceeded to back him outright & in a double with Buveur. That run in last year’s RSA reminded me of Denman, galloping them into submission.

I don't think he would get away with those RSA antics in a Gold Cup but he may be well clear going to the last so the easy solution is to lay off at 1.4 or lower in running. The gate to the paddock will still be before the winning post so beware.

Might Bite is heading straight to the Festival, connections have confirmed.

In March 2017 I watched the Brian Ellison runner Definitely Red win the Grimthorpe by 14 lengths at Doncaster over 3m2f - that day I convinced myself that he was more than just an out and out stayer and that i would back him in any top graded chase if at a decent value price.

My confidence was knocked a bit when only coming 3rd in the Charlie Hall - but after some reflection I stuck to my initial thoughts after that Grimthorpe i.e that he would show his best at 3m2f+ on a track that required some getting and run at a faster pace. So i just kept backing him at silly prices for the Gold Cup

His next run at Aintree in the Many Clouds Chase in December was run in atrocious conditions , he made the pace that day and i thought he was cooked 2f out as Cloudy Dream was seemingly travelling all over him .... but he picked up again and went away.  For days after that race i was trying to work out if either Definitely Red had just put in a massive Grade 1 class performance in tough staying conditions and making Cloudy Dream & Flying Angel look like a hcappers , or was it simply down to the heavy going. I Just wasnt sure but i just kept backing him for the Gold Cup and to hell the consequences.

His next run in the Cotswold , again in very soft conditions , has now shown his ability at travelling around there and jumping at a fast pace - they were really going some  pace from 4 out and he hammered them whilst swishing his tail on the run in . He was backed down to 80s on the exchanges and 50s with the books before the race , and 25s in a place straight after.

So after nearly a year since the Grimthorpe it looks like he will be taking his chance in the Gold Cup - Im now asking myself several questions pertaining to his chances in the Gold Cup.

1.Is he simply reliant on heavy ground to beat assumed classier horses ...or is he the class horse that ive been convincing myself of since the Grimthorpe and is still being underrated ?

I think the majority would say, based on the formbook,  that he needs it heavy to have any chance in the Gold Cup - If the ground did come up soft then i am personally convinced that he does not come out of first 3 bar a fall - but my personal view is that he is better than that. Ellison has also come out and  said that he thinks Red will be better on good ground - ITV presenter asked him Is soft ground key to him ?   Ellison " No, He has won on good ground , i think he will be better on good ground because he is not short of speed you know , as long as its not tacky because he is such a lovely mover, but he can go on heavy ". Im not totally convinced on the suitability of ground - but as i say i think he has progressed into a perfect Gold Cup horse

2.Is there a chance that he could actually stay the trip better than Might Bite and Sizing John , and does he have the class to match them and some of the other leading fancies ?

"Class" is talked about too much imo when it comes to the Gold Cup - if you just look at the last 10-15 years of the Gold Cup there are several horses that have been placed in the race that most would have identified as horses as more of a National Type and lacked class. I actually think that Definitly Red is not only better than that pigeon hole that many would put him into , i actually believe that he progressed into a high class animal whose 3m2f+ performances will actually exceed past horses who many would believe to be classier horses.

I dont think last years Gold Cup was that impressive  - Minella Rocco got within 2 lengths of Sizing John on good ground

1st            Sizing John    11-10    R M Power    Mrs J Harrington    7    7/1
Held up in rear early, closed into mid-division 5th, effort after 4 out, challenged 2 out, soon led, stayed on well flat, ridden out opened 7/1 touched 7/1
2nd        2¾    Minella Rocco (IRE)    11-10    N D Fehily    Jonjo O'Neill    7    18/1
Held up in rear, outpaced after 3 out, rallied last, soon went 4th, stayed on well flat, went 2nd post, no impression on winner opened 16/1 touched 20/1
3rd        s.h    Native River (IRE)    11-10    R Johnson    C L Tizzard    7    7/2
Prominent, led 3rd, headed 7th, led 15th, not fluent 4 out, ridden and headed 2 out, stayed on under pressure flat but no impression on winner, went 2nd towards finish, lost 2nd post opened 9/2 touched 9/2
4th        ½    Djakadam (FR)    11-10    R Walsh    W P Mullins    8    3/1f

I also think Might Bite is there to be shot at in a fast run race over 3m2f - but i wouldn't lay Might Bite ....as i would Sizing John and Native River .

Sizing John has only run one bad race (Lexus) since up in trip; he won 3 Gold Cups, and is underrated, I believe. Might Bite could still be improving, and if running to his RSA form he'd have an excellent chance of beating the field, I think.

Definitely Red looked good in his last win, but the form still needs convincing. But the Lexus, I cannot give much credence to.

Despite being a massive Might Bite fan (to claify I mean in terms of this year's GC), I have to have a back up.

Decided upon Road to Respect, that despite not respecting his Lexus win at the time. He's been solid this year to be fair and has course form in the bag, which is always valuable.

Whether he'll stay the extra two I don't know and I'm not really that fussed as I'm sure Might Bite will have won by several furlongs (this is a joke) before it becomes an issue. However think he's one to have inside and has disappeared off the radar a bit. Happy with 10/1 NRNB.

Edwulf another that could benefit from lying off the pace,available at 30 odd on here.
Think the horse is being somewhat ignored,but nowt wrong with that performance last time,and worth a few bob at that price imo.

Yeh,i would not be too concerned about NR being a beaten horse last year,same with Rocco,they are both still relatively young horses.
Its a very fascinating race,and be very interesting to see the tactics during the race.

Yeah it is a powerful stat Billy, but for me it's balancing that stat vs he is more than double the price he was last year and looked just as good yesterday.  He is Mr Consistent, so you know you'll get a really good run for your money.  I'm hoping he can run the stamina out of Might Bite, of who I still have my stamina doubts about.

I love Sizing John, but after his last run and the amount of tough racing he's had in a short space of time is a big worry for me.  Might Bite's King George did nothing for me personally, and the quirks he has would push me to the likes of Native River or Road to Respect.

Cant be having Native River over Might Bite, at all. Already neck deep Bite but taken a duck under. Remember all the raving about Bristol De Mai on one run and there's Native's bounce factor to consider, too. Previously got 80/1 Bite 2017 RSA, King George, Gold Cup treble and King George/Gold Cup double a few times. Went in again at 4/1 coz still think way too big, with Sizing John much to prove after flopping and lacking a run now

Does anyone know of any news/quotes from Twiston Davies after the loss of Blacklion today ?

Still none the wiser if he will actually take his chance in the Gold Cup rather than the Grand National ...or en route to the GN.

Pretty sure he said they'd have to think about the GC, if he hosed up today.

agree blacklion barely got over the last and it looked as though my granny woulda beat him on the run in , the george horse after looking a likely winner stopped as if shot .

Come April I believe Definitly Red will be sitting off a mark of between 171-173.

Many will think im crazy when i say that I think Red is best staying chaser in Great Britain at the moment.

Barring a fall or interference I not only believe that he can win this Gold Cup but i think he can win it with reasonable ease- He simply stays better and has the speed to match any of them - His jumping is also excellent whereas i believe that the rest have tons of issues in one or more of these departments

Just topped up on Def Red....20's too big imo.

If it came up soft I'd have more confidence in Nativer River and Our Duke over Might Bite and/or Sizing John on their Grade 1 form. These are my 4 on for free, and hope one will oblige.