Cheltenham Festival
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The Bumper 2018
The Bumper 2018
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Replies: 108
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the cold snap at christmas put a few horses off, willies in particular
teh days to cheltenham and we have another cold snap in ireland ... just saying .... jesses are the same |
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Not sure many would be doing serious work at this stage though irishone?
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no but thats the same before they ran at christmas. ccm
jesse has a few that like the sun gordons were out today on the gallops AJ led the way let two of mine out of their stables this morning and they walked straight back in before i could pick up a rake they can get awful contrary in a cold snap and willie had no expanation for xmas dissappointments |
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They will all need 5 legs to beat Didtheyleaveuout
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The Bumper is not everyone’s cup of tea but I get real buzz out of it.
It’s a real punters race for speculating with the limited clues available on the overall ability/class of the horses.....based on either their previous runs or other mitigating factors that can only really be subjective. This years renewal looks a real minefield with these 9 Irish Entries - Mullins MERCY MERCY ME at 25/1 + EW BOG I’ve actually spread a decent ew bet yesterday because im of the view that if he turns up , given his interrupted lead up to the race, then it would be a massive pointer as to the owner and trainer’s confidence and overall view on his ability. I like MMM for several reasons - Its debut run was very impressive imo and I liked the way that he travelled in a fast run race whilst also looking a bit green. It’s not easy to do what he did at Sandown …..and as soon as he eyeballed Classic Ben he briefly idled …but when Paddy Brennan told him to go on he started to pull away – this is what impressed me especially when this was his debut. When you delve deeper into the form of the 2nd and 3rd (Classic Ben & The Butcher Said) and the horses they have run against, it gives me a further boost as to his potential class and overall ability. The Butcher Said, trained by Warren Greatrex, is very well thought of because of his debut performance at Punchestown in April last year. https://www.racingpost.com/results/195/punchestown/2017-04-25/674240 - The form of this race looks very good and is working out. The 4th from that race at Punchestown has won a Grade 1 Novice hurdle since. MMM has had an interrupted run recently so I don’t really know how to evaluate whats going on at the moment . At the 5 day stage they declared him to run at in that Listed Bumper that Newbury on the 10th Feb that Acey Milan won …but he didn’t turn up, they also entered him this weekend at Newbury but the weather put an end to that. For those who are old enough to remember the owner of Mercy Mercy Me, Malcolm Denmark, had a GREAT horse called Monsignor who won the bumper at 50/1 in 1999 – Mercy Mercy Me is out of the same family. https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/504913/monsignor/form Monsignor form - win on debut at Sandown and then a run at Newbury before the festival win - Maybe they think Mercy Mercy Me is good enough to try and follow in Monsignor's footsteps ....who knows. It is a long time between runs 12th November –March 14th – then again Silver Concorde won 2014 with no run since 28/12/13 – briar hill won the 2013 with no run since 03/01/13, and Moon Racer hadn’t run since the October the year before. Im just taking the view that if he runs then I believe it shows confidence from the yard – if not then no skin off my nose as I’ll get my stake back |
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Mullins will probably win it
good luck everyone |
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Mr Denmark, chessboard colours, happy days
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The Flying Sofa lads
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Nick rather worried about the going for Didtheyleave, better on good ground
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Rozelkid, I came to do a write up but couldn't have done it better than you with MERCY MERCY ME.
The only additional point I would make is that lots of bumper runner get to Cheltenham and the pace is completely new to them and they are all at sea. the time MMM clocked at Sandown was good and comparable with graded races earlier in the day. Indeed almost exactly the same time as Marias Benefit on the same day, which is a useful yardstick. |
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Marias Benefit was jumping hurdles so i wouldn't take too much notice of the times when comparing them.
The Bumper is one of those races where there are so many things to contemplate in the lead up - In my view if there are any clues with regards to any potential class then its worth its weight in gold. Its a highly speculative race to a certain extent and some of these factors to consider are not so obvious ....and can even come down to a Jockey or Trainer's comment in the lead up to the race. I remember the 2010 Bumper where i was wrecking my head for weeks going through form , pedigrees, watching replays and looking at times etc .....after weeks of research i was none the wiser in believing i had any edge with speculating on any runner which represented any value - I had a few horses circled including Cue Card but i couldn't really be confident so i was just going to have minimal interest. But that changed on the night before the race when i went on to the attheraces website and Colin Tizzard dropped a bombshell " Cue Card is the best horse ive ever trained ". I remember thinking that night.... well ive spent weeks trying to see if there is one horse that represented value , had done nothing wrong in the lead up to the race , and could be coming under the radar at inflated odds , and im left with not being overly confident on anything as you can expect with the Bumper - however here i am the night before the race and a trainer of one of those horses ive circled has just told everyone that his runner was the best he has ever trained. So that night i put my trust in Mr Tizzards Judgement , I trusted him - i went for it . The Morning of the race a cousin of mine called me and was shouting about his bet of the day "CUE CARD" Bumper - It was just meant to be that day when i think back. I think the lesson to be learned with this race is to live it in the lead up - pay close attention to everything and be dynamic because in the days before the race "value" might just jump out at you and smack you around the chops. It would be foolish to say that im really confident with Mercy Mercy Me , but ive speculated because I think he could be a horse that is better than average and should be much shorter if he runs. I also have two others circled which are Tom George's The Big Bite & Seddon , just had minimal interests on those to so far |
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Hollowgraphic scratched from the race.
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I feel sick.
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He'd been pretty solid on here the last week so that is a surprise.
Bad luck CCM. |
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I have now gone for The Big Bite @ 32
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Why not do the sensible thing get something to eat or drink during this bookie benefit
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Bad luck CC - Mullins brigade does it again
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This race has killed me the last two years. Getabird was my biggest winner last year and Hollowgraphic this
 I've added Tornado Flyer. Form working out well... and he seems to be the big mover. Perhaps he worked wit Hollowgraphic and wet well? |
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Didtheyleaveuoutto seems a goner judging by the market n here
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And now it’s gone back to normal, albeit a few points higher than it was. Been a few of these spikes over the past week
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I've had enough on Mercy , still a little bit of 40's on the exchange - he runs and will love the ground ...as Fergal has just live on ATR
Market suspends in 45 mins HERECOMESTHEBOOM will not run he said if soft or heavy ground |
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Didtheyleaveuoutto will be drifting on account of the weather.
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Mercy didn't have enough pace to handle the Mullins crew - anyone have a few shillings on the tricast?
I would take the 2nd "Carefully Selected" as the one with most scope , he lost his concentration on the run in after being on his own in front for the majority of the race - he then ran on again when seeing Relegate on his left and just failed to get back up. |
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Definitely time to stop even looking at the Bumper - total crapshoot.
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Mullins filled the first 3 places, also 5th and 7th place with his 5 runners. It's amazing how he consistently gets good young horses year after year, he will have another good bunch of novice hurdlers next season.
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Why on earth do people get envolved on this race,previous poster's had done their doe on nr's and went straight in again on another selection the record of big odds winner's last 10 years must be leading race of the meeting,I did say get a pint or something to eat or even better still if driving get yourself halfway up the motorway
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