Cheltenham Festival
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The Bumper 2018
The Bumper 2018
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deptford i got severe reservations about the trainer , but jees that horse is different gravy
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It looks as if the British contingent will be led by Didtheyleaveuoutto and I agree with others that have posted that the Ascot bumper that he won is the best bumper run in Britain to date (although Newbury's upcoming listed bumper is always a decent contest and this year's race is shaping up nicely). That said, I wouldn't trust Nick Gifford to post a letter so that dampens my enthusiasm for his ability to train a Cheltenham Festival winner.
The only other serious contenders are Acey Milan, Crooks Peak, Good Boy Bobby and Time To Move On (with Bullionaire likely to be aimed for a repeat win of the Goffs UK Spring Sales Bumper at Newbury in late March). It'll be interesting to see how Acey Milan gets on in the listed bumper this weekend in light of Anthony Honeyball's comments after his win at Cheltenham on 1st January: "Acey Milan surprised us with how much he had come on for his first bumper when he rattled home at Wincanton, and he's showed gears and he's showed stamina. He's a handy horse and we'll make the most of him in bumpers. I think we can go to the Newbury Listed bumper against older horses and if he were to win there we could put him away or have a month before Cheltenham". |
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Just for fun (at this stage) I checked the RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) for bumper horses and the top four are the first four home on Saturday at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Blackbow 142 Rhinestone 140 Minella Encore 136 Brace Yourself 132 (There are a couple of others also on 132, including Hollowgraphic.) This leaves Blackbow a stone clear of the first British-trained bumper horse (not yet committed to Cheltenham) who is Good Boy Bobby on 128. Didtheyleaveuoutto is on 124. |
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Thebannerkingrebel hoses up again. Far cry from the best form on offer in Ireland, but hopefully will run and put in a decent showing. Either way, it won't be 40/1 again for the CB.
Happy with that. |
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Thebannerkingrebel has hosed up because he is running in Mickey Mouse class 5 races at gaff tracks where he has picked up less than £5,000 in prize money after two wins. Obviously we do not yet know what the official handicapper will make of yesterday's race but I'd be concerned Thebannerkingrebel would be balloted out (assuming he will be entered in the first place) unless he takes on some decent opposition in the next couple of weeks.
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That’s a little unfair Ramruna. There aren’t the number of quality bumpers in the UK that they have in Ireland and ‘only’ winning low class bumpers didn’t stop Cheltenham or Cue Card from following up.
We are talking about a horse that people have north of 40s on here - not a 5/2 jolly. They’ve very right to be pleased with the way things are going, although the balloting out potential would be a concern. |
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We should know a bit more about the British challenge after today's Listed race at Newbury. The expensive Brewin'Upastorm is interesting but I think the market may have over-reacted to the collateral form involving Portrush Ted and I would not at all be surprised to see Nestor Park running a big race at a big price today. He looks a galloping sort with a roundy action, so more rain shouldn't bother him; I've backed him e/w for today's race.
As far as Cheltenham is concerned, I'm hoping Time To Move On enhances his credentials with a good win tomorrow. |
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Ram - TBKR is a bit of fun. One of those 'find an AP horse at a massive price and see how it goes' kind of bets.
I very much doubt he'll win the CB, were he to run, as outlined above, in that his form is miles off the Irish. Briar Hill had only won just shy of €5000, beating a measly 4 rivals at Thurles, of which only one ever went on to win a race, before winning the CB. The great thing about the CB is you just never know, as there is very little form to go on. Think it's a bit disrespectful to say Warwick is a gaff track mind! Watched the future winner of the Grand National win the Classic Chase at Warwick last year! The Kingmaker attracts good horses as well. |
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So far the top British bumper horse is Good Boy Bobby -- 16/1 for the Festival. We'll know more in 15 minutes after the Newbury Listed bumper.
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I backed him last night at 4/1 for today (gonna have a R4 applied) and just added Good Boy Bobby at 14 NRNB for the CB.
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GBB only third behind Acey Milan.
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Yep, won't be winning the CB. Nothing for TBKR to worry about there!
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Interesting race at Newbury there - make you wonder how good the Christian Williams horse "Volcano" actually is.
On the 16th January Ollie Murphy said that Brewinupastorm was the best horse he has got in his yard ..wonder if he still thinks that after being hammered by almost 14 lengths.  |
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CARE TO PICK YOUR TOP THREE:-
Blackbow Hollowgraphic Didtheyleaveuoutto Rhinestone Colreevy Acey Milan Time To Move On Carefully Selected Downtown Getaway Stay Humble Good Boy Bobby Brewinupastorm Mercy Mercy Me Clinton Hill Thebannerkingrebel Crooks Peak Danny Kirwan Dorrells Pierji Empreinte Reconce Herecomestheboom |
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is that an official list of entries CMIYC?
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I have to stick with initial thoughts - Mercy Mercy Me at 33/1 looks to have a big shout in a fast run Champion Bumper.
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CCM:
I'd go: Carefully Selected (seems to be under the radar for some reason looking at its price) Blackbow Didtheyleaveuoutto. |
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Further to my post of 7th February, one can now strike a line through Good Boy Bobby (not good enough), Time To Move On (won well enough at Exeter earlier today but beat nothing and looks too green to win a Grade 1 Festival bumper) and probably also the impressive winner of yesterday's Listed bumper at Newbury, Acey Milan (given an unduly hard race by Brian Hughes and connections must be sorely tempted to wait for Aintree to give the horse more time to recover from his exertions and the poor ride he was given).
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I'm not sure I'd want to attach too much weight to RPRs in the bumper (or any of the novice championships) given the rate of improvement some horses are capable of showing at this formative stage of their careers.
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Anyone got any update on hollowgraphic?
Last update was it was due to run in the leopardstown bumper..have heard rumours of injury and slight drift to 8/1 on here.. |
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In Willie Mullins' Cheltenham stable tour he issued upbeat bulletins about both Blackbow and Hollowgraphic. Carefully Selected and Tornado Flyer likely to join them on the boat. Patrick's pick likely to be Blackbow.
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Got everything crossed that's what he does CiK and leaves Ruby free for Hollowgraphic.
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I believe Mullins was quoted today as saying that what Hollowgraphic did at Punchestown was 'extraordinary'
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This is what WPM said about Hollowgraphic earlier today:
"I’ve always thought Hollowgraphic was a fair sort. To me, what he did at Punchestown was a huge performance. We’ve been minding him since then with a view to Cheltenham, it was always the intention to go straight there." This is what he said about Blackbow: "He has galloped his way in amongst the pick of our bumper horses. He has been very good in his two starts, particularly his second run." |
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Is the impressive Nichols winner Danny Kirwan not going here? Out to 46s on here (only for pence but I took 23s on here before he won on the weekend!)
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is antepost betting a thing of the past? sorry to derail but thinking about it I took 25s on We Have A Dream for the Triumph since then he's won 3 times and one of those was a Grade 1 but he's still available for around 9s on here......is there any point betting so far in advance when you're not even getting great odds compared to what's available near the off?
I will obviously continue to bet antepost as it's half the fun, but it's hard to think we're getting true/fair value in these odds months in advance of March. |
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DK being saved for Aintree I believe he said after his win BF.
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Today is actually one of the forfeit stages - betting suspended
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typical, thanks for the info
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was cheering him home on the weekend saying "got a live one for the festival!"
nope |
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@BigField -- is antepost betting a thing of the past? sorry to derail but thinking about it I took 25s on We Have A Dream for the Triumph since then he's won 3 times and one of those was a Grade 1 but he's still available for around 9s on here......is there any point betting so far in advance when you're not even getting great odds compared to what's available near the off?
I will obviously continue to bet antepost as it's half the fun, but it's hard to think we're getting true/fair value in these odds months in advance of March. A couple of years back I posted a comparison of the winners' day of race prices and antepost prices some weeks before (sorry, I can't remember the details) taken from the price boxes in the Weekender. The answer was no, there was no point, not in the general case. Perhaps someone who has kept the past few Weekenders can repeat the exercise at the end of this year's Festival. |
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http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Final-entries-for-The-Festival-revealed.html?soid=1110108263682&aid=bNxxGmdkEu4
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ACEY MILAN (IRE) Anthony Honeyball
ARCH MY BOY Martin Smith BLACKBOW (IRE) Willie Mullins IRE BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP Mick Channon CAREFULLY SELECTED (IRE) Willie Mullins IRE COLREEVY (IRE) Willie Mullins IRE CROOKS PEAK DASHEL DRASHER 4 Philip Hobbs DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO (IRE) 5 3 JP McManus Nick Gifford DOC PENFRO 6 Doc Redemption Kevin Frost DR HOOVES (IRE) 5 Gerry McGladery Lucinda Russell FELIX DESJY (FR) 5 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE GALLAHERS CROSS (IRE) 6 Grech & Parkin Nicky Henderson GOOD BOY BOBBY (IRE) 5 Paul & Clare Rooney Nigel Twiston-Davies HERECOMESTHEBOOM (IRE) 6 Walid Marzouk Fergal O'Brien HOLLOWGRAPHIC (IRE) 5 Ballylinch Stud Willie Mullins IRE JP/TRACK PARKHOMES 4 Colin Tizzard KNOW THE SCORE (IRE) 5 The Angove Family David Pipe MERCY MERCY ME 6 Malcolm C Denmark Fergal O'Brien NESTOR PARK (FR) 5 Mrs S P Davis Ben Pauling RELEGATE (IRE) 5 Paul McKeon Willie Mullins IRE RHINESTONE (IRE) 5 3 P McManus Joseph O'Brien IRE SEDDON (IRE) 5 McNeill Family Tom George SQUADRON COMMANDER 5 Willie Mullins IRE STONEY MOUNTAIN (IRE) 5 Trevor Hemmings Henry Daly THE BIG BITE (IRE) 5 N T Griffith Tom George THE FLYING SOFA (FR) 5 Galloping On Gary Moore THEBANNERKINGREBEL (IRE) Jamie Snowden TIME TO MOVE ON (IRE) 5 Paul & Clare Rooney Fergal O'Brien TORNADO FLYER (IRE) 5 T F P Willie Mullins IRE VOLCANO (FR) 4 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nigel Twiston-Davies |
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Max 24 runners, anyone know where there's a list of ORs for these? Concerns re-balloting out.
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Mullins looks to have his usual strong hand and the best of his will undoubtedly take all the beating. It normal that no one knows which is the best of his of course. I was in Galway when Gallahers Cross won his bumper, he subsequently was sold to Nickies and although was beaten in the listed race won by Donttheyleaveuoutto I thought NdB wasn't overly hard on him, I took 33's to small money and under a stronger ride and an with an uphill finish I can see him running a big race. If of course he runs (fingers crossed).
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Anyone lucky enough to be holding a 25/1 Hollowgraphic betting voucher must be sitting pretty right now. Hard to believe that excl. Willie Mullins' entries, the Irish have only entered two in this race.
The Bumper, RSA, JLT, Stayers, Albert Bartlett and Gold Cup are shaping up to be great, wide open races. The other Grade 1 championship races have more of a lopsided look to them. |
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@Cash Is King -- The Bumper, RSA, JLT, Stayers, Albert Bartlett and Gold Cup are shaping up to be great, wide open races. The other Grade 1 championship races have more of a lopsided look to them.
Yes and no. Wide open races perhaps but not necessarily great ones. At Cheltenham I want to see jaw-droppingly great performances from true champions, even if that does mean a "good thing". Are "wide open races" open because all the leading contenders are potential greats, or because none of them are? Let's be honest, even the Gold Cup is often contested by slow old boats. But we shall see. |
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The truth is, you never know. The festival wouldn’t engage us the way that it does if it was as predictable as people on here seem to think that it is, it’s the surprise monster performances that herald either a new superstar or a returning champions final flourish.
You only need go back a couple of years to Sprinter bouncing back and winning the QMCC again, beating the odds on UDS in the process. You couldn’t back him with counterfeit at the price, given the previous couple of years and yet the place erupted. |