Cheltenham Festival
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07 Oct 17
15:19
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Date Joined:
31 Dec 04
Any thoughts on this fascinating race
14-1 bar at the moment
If you ignore the unlikely Hobbs runner
14-1 bar at the moment
If you ignore the unlikely Hobbs runner
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Replies: 169
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You don't think Oscar will run...why not ?
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I've had a few quid on Movewiththetimes who can be backed at 25/1 in most places.
I see he's been entered up in a 2m Novice Chase on Friday at Newton Abbot. Lightly raced 6 year old who is trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by JP McManus - form reads 11512. On his latest start he was less than a length second to Ballyandy in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and could be JP's number one for the Arkle come March. In my opinion, Yanworth will be campaigned towards JLT/RSA and connections have confirmed that Defi Du Seuil will stay over hurdles. |
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Great to have such an open looking race afetr a few years of red hot ante post favourites.
I also played MWTT a couple of weeks ago at 25/1. |
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Petit Mouchoir very impressive on debut, looked a most accomplished jumper in beating a couple of decent horses themselves, obviously the "will he act on a stiffer track like Cheltenham" will be the big question...very good start though.
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I have PM. Backed him last week at 14/1 and then again at 10/1 any race. Sounded like they'll stick to 2m according to HDB unless they have to go up in trip which I suppose means if they get beat. Thats how I took it anyway.
He'd probably be shorter if the anticipated runners were hurdling and his jumping was good today so def looks the one to beat after today. I've also done Ballyandy, but Petit Mouchoir is def my number 1 choice. I was sure they'd go further with Finians Oscar and after Saturday I still would, but Tizzard knows better than me. MWTT should have a similar chance to Ballyandy so it's who takes best to chasing unless either step up in distance. ````````````````` |
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Ruby named Cilaos Emery as his Arkle horse a couple of weeks but Willie has said he’ll probably stay to hurdles in a stable tour today. Wonder if he’s schooled badly or they’ve got another horse in mind?
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The. most impressive thing about PM so far is how ridiculously short the bookies have made him after a stroll in the park.
The Arkle is not a race to strictly match hurdles form to chase form. It just doesn't work as has been proved time and again over the years. This is what creates the value in this race as the ratings merchants get their slide rule out to compare apples with oranges. I have a fairly good gut feeling for the race and one horse gives me a similar feel to past winners I have had a good size bet on ante post such as Well Chief, Azertyuiop and Well Chief. Another winner I backed 25/1 Captain Chris was an unusual winner as he stayed the 2 miles exceptionally well and was a bit of a conundrum at the time against horses with more speed who didn't quite stay the 2 miles ... a fine decision when that is the case. |
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...and Moscow Flyer.
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Epic stuff Eric.
 Petit Mouchoir is also not my idea of the Arkle winner but unless you tell us all who this mystery horse you fancy is, and whether you have actually backed it yet, your post is a total waste of space. |
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Great post Eric..........but you forgot to name the strong fancy
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I need to know more on plans before placing a position on him.
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normally a hurdler with a rating of 150+ has a good chance
Noted Captain Chris mentioned-a 146 rated hoss How about a lower rated one this year Saw Shantou rock last week saunter in ,bit of a slow time though Rated only 129 But unfurnished and probably better as a chaser 25-1 chance? |
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You can still tell us who you are thinking of Eric- trust me it will not affect the market one iota..
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Capitaine could not be faulted yesterday making it 2 from 2 over fences and looked very impressive. There has to be slight doubts about him going left handed as he has raced mainly right handed up until now, but there's little doubt that he's already showing a much better level of form over fences. 33/1 still available and worth a small bet.
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OUT WITH IT ERIC
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Eric has also forgotten to mention that the last three winners of the race were the top rated hurdlers. In fact top hurdlers have a good record in the race.
But he backed Captain Chris once and so thinks he has cracked the race. His other aftertimes include a horse that had run second in the Triumph the previous season WC, another that was the top rated hurdler in the race Az, and a 3x G1 winning hurdler MF. Hardly a cast-iron argument about top hurdlers, I imagine the slide rule boys would've had most of them covered. Not that I'd be backing PM, in novice chases at the festival I prefer to concentrate on those horses that only spent one season over hurdles. Nothing jumps out at present, but Cilaos Emery would appeal if going here. |
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Desmond, on that basis then Finians Oscar may be high on your list. timeforms top rated Novice Hurdler last year at 155, one year over hurdles, and all the pointers from the stable were that he is a born and bred chaser. Willoughby Court 151p and Barcadys 150+ the others going fencing, close enough to top of the ratings with Arkle potential.
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Well Movewiththetimes backers will know if they have a live one later today.
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Quite right deeping, those three would have to be at the forefront of anyone's thoughts, a decent run at the previous years festival being a plus too (Bacardy's can be forgiven, very unfortunate).
Half the battle is finding the horses that will line up though. I'm not convinced any of the three mentioned will, as suspect all three will be better over further. That said, if it doesn't look a particularly deep race come March, then I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them turn up in it, rather than take each other on in red-hot RSA or JLT's. And of course being a stout stayer isn't necessarily a disadvantage as MWDS and Tidal Bay proved. I guess I'm basically echoing everyone's thoughts that it's a very open race. |
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Can’t see an Arkle winner from that race. Petit Mouchoir still the best novice chaser so far imho
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north hill harvey. Skelton confirmed arkle is the target best priced 33/1 won yestrday beating decent horses showed plenty of guts but maybea lack of speed. Intersting at 33/1 though. short as 16 with some bookmakers
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Petit Mouchoir has suffered a slight setback. H de Bromhead hopes to have him back for the Irish Arkle at the end of January.
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^
and so it begins  |
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River Wylde looks the most solid at this stage for me, So many horses in the top dozen in the betting that might not run.
If he stays sound he'll line up on the day a single figure price, maybe even fav if he builds on his good start the last week. |
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I wasn't totally disheartened by Movewiththetimes debut run so haven't torn my virtual ticket up yet - though I wonder if he might be plotted up for the Grand Annual?
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Footpad, who twice finished close to Petit Mouchoir last year, once when running 4th in the Champion Hurdle & the other beaten a length in the Irish Champion, has 2 entries in Ireland this weekend. He's 33/1 for the Arkle, however it's entirely possible he could go up in trip, but 16/1 any race with PP seems very fair for the level of form shown. Same owners as Sceau Royal too and they could be split come March.
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Footpad wins well
14-1 |
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After FOOTPADs win, trainer Mullins said “it was a good performance; he is a very natural jumper at home and he did the same here. He's as good as novice as I've seen schooling at home and I thought it was a good performance for a first time out novice.
“I'd imagine we'll look at the Drinmore; the way he was going there I'd be happy to stick at two miles but the Drinmore is two-and-a-half so we'll look at that. He has no problem going two-and-a-half as he was a two-and-a-half mile hurdler. “He is so well balanced jumping and is a complete natural.” |
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Thought Footpad jumped as well as any novice Ive seen for a long while.
Doesn't scream Arkle type to me though, more of a JLT type. Anyone with 16/1 any race should be very happy imo! |
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Well done shockster, superb shout mate
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Movewiththetimes goes in the longer race this weekend so we can tear up our Arkle slips
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I put CAPITAINE up on here earlier so looking forward to his run at Cheltenham on Sunday.
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Could be the race of the festival.
Be great to have a top 2m Chase with up to half a dozen strong fancies,something we don't get much anymore. |
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Brilliant round of jumping from Sceau Royal there.
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How bad was the petite mouchoir injury, is there any news.
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Anthony Bromley, racing manager to Munir and Souede, said: "We have history before of running two in a Cheltenham race. If they both keep going as they have been up to now we couldn't keep them apart because we're talking about the Arkle."
at last no nonsense, there is only one arkle chase and fair play to bromley for making these comments...they are 2 high class novices, at least he has put the usual nonsense we have to deal with to bed |
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With the disappointing runs of Finians Oscar (why connections down trip despite needing every yard to win over 20f last time beggars belief), Brain Power and North Hill Harvey today those with antepost vouchers for Footpad and very possibly Petit Mouchoir (a little setback of an issue with a joint but the vet is happy with it), and if returning for the Irish Arkle in early February could be in the money come Cheltenham, I think.
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Think they did a bit too much in front and set it up a tad for SR.I expect come March on a different track and ground things could well be different.
I certainly would not rule out BP and NHH,FO has to step up though,hes patently not a 2 miler. |
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I agree Bud, I think the stable were surprised by SRs performance and part of that might be down to Sandown bringing the best out of the horse. He's never looked at his best at Cheltenham and it wouldn't surprise me at all if either BP or NHH (who towed him into the race and were hammer and tongs at each other up front) could reverse that form in an Arkle.
It's still a very open race, which is a refreshing change |