2018-Arkle

He is entered to run in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown Feb 3rd

Oh yes, Footpad is there too! What a comeback race, if so.

First time I've looked at the market today, surprised how short Footpad is...

Anyway I came on the thread to put in a word for Saint Calvados who has impressed in two chases at Newbury now. Difficult to know what the form is worth and he might not be as effective on better ground but we'll hopefully learn more when he runs in the Kingmaker.

His trainer deserves a decent chaser after what happened with Arzal a couple of years back.

Saint Calvados only raised 7lbs for last win (to 154). Seems pretty lenient to me. The obvious unknown is how he'll handle faster Spring ground (high knee action), but they usually aim for good-to-soft on Tuesday, so shouldn't be THAT quick. Arkle definitely the right target though, I see him as a 2-miler, not a JLT type. I was impressed with him at Newbury and have had a few quid at 25/1 NRNB for the Arkle.

Fwiw I've backed pm at 3s for this weekend and intend on backing him for the arkle. Hope I don't get egg on my face after posting this and hope Mr hdb don't read this but the intention is to run with eyes firmly on chelters. He just needs to see if after the setback all the ability is still there and if it is he will beat footpad on all known hurdling form! I'm just wondering if wpm won't dodge the race, will be interesting and he has form of doing just that.

No doubt Petit Mouchoir has the more superior hurdle form but Footpad just glides over fences in a fashion similar to a Japanese bullet train over the rails. But there is a big disparity between prices of the two.

That's a bold statement STS. Footpad has looked exceptional so far over fences. If you rate PM then the 6/1 NRNB (B365) for the Arkle looks great. Going to be a cracker at Leopardstown for sure.

Il be taking on Footpad with Petit Mouchoir.

Like I said been given good info that pm is in good form but obviously no one knows till he's on the racetrack and who is the only horse to beat footpad again? Prices are miles out of line and I'm not usually one who looks back on previous seasons or codes and def don't usually back horses coming back off a break but willing to give this one a chance.
Pm jumped well in Oct it's just really unfortunate he had his injury and he did that real easy beating brelade an easy 7L ok 140 rated but he is a 2 miler in his own grade footpad beat 3 milers easily so not really been in a race and was on bad ground both times.
Gl if you wanna play the odds on but not for me!

Off a injury not break ffs phone

delighted with that from Petit Mouchoir, jumped the first 2 poor but would imagine they'll hopefully jump him off in front at Cheltenham (as over hurdles) now they've got their prep into him

Think they'll fill the same 2 places at Cheltenham anyway whichever way

Yeah, lots of encouragement from PM, jumped 2 poorly but was given a very easy time by Russell and still finished close enough, today was a stepping stone.

That was impressive from Footpad; he jumped slickly and never extended. I think the same result at the festival, and should be odds-on but surprised he is not after this demolition job. A good 1st run back from a training setback from Petit Mouchoir.

Also thought the seconds run  was full of promise, russell just sat there between 2 and 3 out and the horse came home full of beans..

footpad will be overbet at cheltenham. to be fair to the horse he's looked pretty bomb-proof so far, but 2 miles at arkle pace on good ground will be a lot different than beating up small fields on soft ground in ireland. Of course he deserves to be favourite as you have to question the strength against him, but to me it would be madness to take evens, let alone odds-on as others are claiming.

As an Arkle PM backer I'd like to have seen a little more, but Davy clearly was giving him a bit of a racecourse gallop style ride so not giving up on him just yet.

Saint Calvados impressive today, it's a long time since I've seen a novice jump so fluently. Game on.

5 year olds don't get any weight allowance in the race these days, no 5 year old has won it since the allowance was taken away (I think? don't quote me on that)

I was impressed, and I am tempted, but think I'll swerve

Was very good.
North Hill Harvey thrashed out of sight.....he werent at Sandown behind Sceau Royal.
The Irish have competition with this one.

Looking a real tear up with the front three in the betting like to be handy, you can see sceau royal getting a lovely sit in behind, but is it good enough..

8/1 Saint Calvados looks too big to me, will surely be rated 160+ after today's performance. Footpad looks a formidable foe, but SC should be 4/1 tops imo so I've gone in again (already on for smallish stakes @ 25/1). Shaping up to be a cracking race.

Agree Mystic that was a cracking performance .I thought jumping the last hes going to be a 4/5 to 1 shot for Arkle mullered good horses.

Agree completely with recent posts. Looks a real good one and just placed my second festival bet on him.

if he wins off level weights as a 5yo then he is a seriously good horse, you are talking me into this one, he was laughing at them today. I know the stat around 5yos is bad but there can't have been many this good have a go

A total of 102 runners in the last 10 renewals, only 5 of 'em were 5yo.

His trainer seems concerned - he must have said 'he's only 5!' about 10 times in his RUK interview but I think it's his way of trying to keep the lid on things.

Hugely exciting horse...

Footpad is still very much the one to beat, but I think if Saint Calvados was with a bigger trainer he'd be a lot shorter. Reminds me a bit of Flemenstar in his novice chase season for some reason (the way he made it look effortless, jumped and travelled with ease, small fields, small trainer).

The 5 year old stat doesn't bother me to be honest. I'm not getting too carried away and he may well be one of those novices who don't quite live up to a run like that again, but willing to take the chance.

Value in Footpad is gone, Petit Mouchoir tends to flatter to decieve on the big day and I think SC is better than Sceau Royale, so 8/1 is very fair imo

thanks for providing that stat ReaseHeath, it puts things in perspective. A 5yo should have a much better chance over the minimum trip than in a race like the RSA

Footpad has been mightily impressive, but getting a better price on Saint Calvados just to place seems a fair bet, taking 8/1 each way is tempting. My only concern is the course and the likely quicker ground, should I be worried?

I'm still happy to take on Footpad with Petit Mouchair and I think the 15/8 w/o Footpad is also appealing. Saint to me the ground is a worry

one horse I can't have at all is Brain Power, unless something comes out of the woodwork it's a 4 horse race

The majority of the big races won by Saint Des Saints progeny have been on softer ground or worse - however, the dam sire is Pistolet Bleu - best horse he produced was Sizing Europe who loved the spring ground.

Not sure that really helps much!

It all helps Rease.

Re the ground for Saint Calvados, my approach is that unless there is a clear soft ground action, then I just assume they'll be able to go on better (not sure if that's the correct way, but it's just how I view it).

A lot of novices that come over from France do all their running/winning on really heavy ground; eg Long Run won all his races in soft, very soft or heavy, but first time on good ground over here and he smashed them in the Feltham.  Same with the likes of Douvan and Vautour who'd raced almost exclusively in France and Ireland in soft ground but then as soon as they met good ground at Cheltenham they went to another level.  Un de Sceaux was another 'who had to have soft ground' but has won twice at Cheltenham on good now.

Suppose my point is that just because he's done his winning on soft, that is just because those happened to be the conditions on those days, not like they were avoiding good ground deliberately so I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he'll act on good.  He really is the joker in the pack imo - he could quite easily trail home in last, but at the same time he could easily smash them - makes for a really interesting race!

Agree with the bloob that I wouldn't want to back a 5 yo in the RSA without a weight allowance, Arkle doesn't bother me too much.  I know there were a lot of negatives about Bristol de Mai in the JLT because he was only fiver but ran a great race to finish second on ground he doesn't like and a trip too short, so his age didn't stop him.

Really looking forward to this now!

Followed in at 8/1 NRNB yesterday. Any SC backers will be pleased to hear that Whittingham in interview said:

"His work rider at home thinks he'll be better on better ground. We'll see."

Coleman said:

"Better ground will be no problem to him."

So if they're right, nothing to worry about... hopefully!

does look like a soft ground action though

Absolutely has a clear soft ground action, if ground conditions at the festival are soft or worse he has a big chance, on good ground, both Footpad and Petit Mouchoir will be far too quick for him IMO.

I think you are spot on Duffy. Hopefully the money keeps coming because Petit will become every more interesting

Footpad is taking a walk, negative value induced or something untoward with him?

Footpad very weak

Market manipulation post a bookie preview yesterday, I think.

Looks like it be 2.7 by tomorrow.

The market is just repricing. Footpad was never an even money shot against this field. You have 2 other horses that like to make all so the fav won't be getting a soft lead. Fascinating tactical race in store.

I’m not saying there’s nothing untoward (rumours of a bleed following work today - probably bollocks, mind), but Mal is definitely right. I’d already laid at that price, novice chasers at even money at The Festival, you just have to. That’s despite not fancying Sceau Royal around the park, although Saint Calvados looks very smart and may yet get it’s ground.

Apparently a rumour Footpad could be rerouted to the JLT but the manager to his owners contacted Mullins and nothing of that sort had been confirmed. Footpad is sound, and his running plan along with that of Sceau Royal will be finalised next weekend. 

He's shown he's a natural think and I think he'll blitz his opponents and be triumphant.

I meant he's shown he's a natural jumper.

Regards Footpad, this was posted by 'domino14' and it was from a lad in the yard (apparently).
"Bled after a gallop this morning, worked well and connections not too worried, but vet will check him over this morning".

Tbh do not know what to make of it with this stable.

Sceau Royal a N/R

From the RP website:

Sceau Royal has suffered a setback and will miss the Racing Post Arkle Chase at Cheltenham.
Simon Munir and Isaac Souede's chaser had been a leading fancy for the race ever since a Grade 1 victory under Daryl Jacob at Sandown last December.
But trainer Alan King told the Racing Post on Monday: "He's had a slight setback which prevents me from preparing him for Cheltenham.
"We'll review the situation in the next few days and decide whether he runs again this season or we put him away. You can't take a chance with a horse – if you push now, you may have no horse left."
The trainer added: "I'm hugely disappointed for Simon and Isaac, for my team and for Daryl."

Sorry couldn't see this thread.

Will Jacob switch to Footpad? Can't imagine Ruby being very happy but he is retained rider?

Ruby has first choice of any Munir horses' with WPM. As a Footpad backer though i'm not sure if that's a positive in this case as the Arkle is going to be a hugely tactical affair. No better man then Ruby but he lack of race riding is worrying.

maelduin, I'm pretty certain Jacob will ride Footpad now. When or where was it reported that Ruby has the call on the Mullins/Munir horses? I'd be very surprised if this is the case

Shame. Thought he was well overpriced. I'll have to have a good look at the race again.

Check out this article re. Footpad - http://www.hri-ras.ie/News/?news=P-836d8a1f-b802-4753-a5f8-3261cf3a3f10

Even today when Sceau Royal was confirmed a NR they mentioned that Daryl would be "disappointed".

Looks like the layers for footpad got the wrong one.

Apparently Jacob is only retained rider in the UK.

For Footpad's last six runs in Ireland, Jacob has travelled over for the ride four times . On the 2 occasions when he didn't travel over he instead rode  Bristol De Mai in the King George and then Terrefort which won the grade 1 in Kempton, both for Munir. Looks like a retainer to me unless the arrangement has just recently changed.

Walsh has had first refusal on Footpad last two festivals.

ftv. I assume that was because Ruby was injured though?

As far as I can tell, the deal is Jacob rides for Munir and Souede, unless someone better is available (Walsh for Mullins or Geraghty got the ride on Peace & Co when it won the Triumph).

Ruby has been injured for all three runs this season. Looking at the times he has ridden him before that, Ruby would have chosen Nichols Canyon over Footpad for three of the four runs last season as he was short priced fav each time. And in the CH Ruby was on Footpad and Jacob on Sceau Royal.

Pretty sure I do remember hearing this last season now... Jacob only retained for Britain, but they would use him in Ireland when Ruby wasnt on a Mullins horse.

Sorry AC was typing my post then. Repeating you again

Walsh on Footpad = 13F114
Jacob on Footpad = 24231
Townend on Footpad = 111

Just saying, like...

The last 2 festivals Footpad and SR clashed. Jacob knows both horses well. Ruby knows Footpad well. So it wouldn't have made sense for Jacob to ride Footpad( when Ruby was available) and then have to look for another rider for Sceau Royal. Now that there's no clash I would have assumed the ride goes automatically to Jacob unless I'm missing something

ftv. I think the point is that the terms of the retainer are such that they allow Ruby to have first pick on Mullins horses.

Rease. In fairness, he looks a different horse over fences wouldnt you say!

Maybe so CCM but you'd think that would also apply to Townend in that case.

FTV - please read the article i posted. The following excerpt from it says it all:

"I was pleased Daryl (Jacob, retained rider) got the chance to ride him as he rode him in most races last season as he was always the second or third string in the Grade Ones in the Mullins yard. When Ruby (Walsh) had a sore hand, it was nice Daryl could go and ride him. Whether he (as in Daryl) will get back on him is another thing as I imagine he will be first choice in that division now."

First choice to Ruby. This has nothing to do with jockeys knowing horses. Retained jockeys don't give up rides for that reason.

Yeah exactly.

Mar 5, 2018 -- 9:03AM, Can't Catch Me wrote:

Rease. In fairness, he looks a different horse over fences wouldnt you say!

Yes, CCM - last time I looked Townend was injured anywway.

I assume Ruby will be back in action at Navan on Thursday or Leopardstown Fri, weather permitting?

Lay off a concern but s'pose it could just as easily be an advantage (fresh) as disadvantage (race fitness, timing).

I try not to comment on jockeys 'cos I don't really know what I'm talking about but I'd expect Walsh to ride Footpad but the owners to be quite relaxed if he can't for any reason.

I understand all that but am still slightly confused as to what exactly Jacob's retainer entails. He is, apparently, first choice jock for the Munir horses in Elliotts.He is first jock to all the UK trained horses. And he is ahead of Townend, David and Danny in WPM's but behind Ruby!!

Among all the owner/jockey retainers that is indeed rather unique and a little weird imo.

Yeah I think its a bit of a worry RH. Ruby is the best, but he simply cant be riding at his absolute peak after this lay off and in some races he might need to be at his absolute best to win.

Give Walsh not having ridden since his fall till now, and probably very race rusty and not 100% I'd like Jacob to be on Footpad incase it comes to a vigorous finish.

other than an early poke on MWTT I hadn't played in this race. But it is Cheltneham so one has t have a runner.
I just don't like any of the market leaders, not at the prices anyway.
Footpad and Petit have always looked a bit soft in the past, Brain Power has a shocking record left handed and has hardly jumped brilliantly the other way, Saint Calvados has come out of left field but will he act round Cheltenham.

Given all that I have gone for Tombstone e/w at 40/1 nrnb.

He was my dark horse to follow a couple of season ago when he was 4th in the Supreme (and we all know how good the three in front were).

That was a good run Unc, I was on that day too.
But he's rather lost his way a little since then and will do well to figure here.
I'm on Saint Calvados at decent prices, but couldn't get involved again at 4/1, although if it is soft or worse I think he's easily the likeliest winner.
If I was looking for an outsider I'd look at asthuria for WPM, she would have no problem if it came up a bog and gets the Mares allowance. It's an intriguing bit of placing, imv.

There's two in arkle I like that could surprise and tombstone is one but the other is north hill harvey. Back at Cheltenham where I think suits he don't have to lead poss one of the only front runners (pm the other one) that I feel don't have to lead as 2nd of them wins early in season he led till 2nd then tracked leaders @ 25/1 and 40s their definitely working men's prices

Aren't they talking about the Grand Annual for NHH?

Harry confirmed at a preview night he goes Arkle.

hardly sticking my neck out but the race North Hill Harvey won at the open meeting was rubbish - the closest thing I've ever seen to a walkover in a three runner race

A lot depends on tactics. Petit Mouchoir, Footpad and Saint Calvados can all make the running. Why would Footpad bother? He's happy being held up and there's no point cutting throats with Saint Calvados for Petit Mouchoir, the quickest of them over hurdles, to pick up the pieces. Given Petit Mouchoir's early blunder last time they surely won't want a jumping competition out front with Saint Calvados who I think is the quickest jumper of the three. For me, SC gets the lead and Coleman is a good man to be judging the pace out front. He needs soft ground though as he really pounds the turf. If he gets it he'll be hard to beat. His age is possibly against him but he looks professional to me.

Footpads just glides over the fences and energy saved will be used at the business end when it matters most. Footpad for me through and through.

That's pretty much how I see the tactics panning out Autocue. If SC gets his ground, it'll be hard to pass him, but I'm not convinced it'll be that bad on the Tuesday, so at the moment I'm favouring Footpad, who's price looks a bit more reasonable than it did a week ago.

More rain is good for Tombstone - had a few extra nibbles at 55-90 on the exchange.

Elliott said a recent preview night that both of his entries in the Arkle do not run, however Tombstone still currently in.  Is he deffo going for this?

It does seem to the only race entered in the Festival apart from his Ryanair Chase at Punchestown next month.

It's his only entry now and he loves heavy so don't see why they wouldn't take a shot - a long break until Punchestown.

He ran poorly last year when punted for the Coral Cup but that was on normal Cheltenham ground (I also don't think he liked the big field), he ran well in the Supreme though so no reason to think the course doesn't suit.

Still a long shot but the price reflects that (too much imo hence my interest).

Yeah i see the entries it was more the comments only made on the 5th March.  However, trainers change their mind and Gordon may have had a skinful :)

Can get 40/1 nrnb so no risk - final decs out tomorrow.

yep I have taken the 40's.  Looking forward to 10am tomorrow!

Only 5 left in Arkle lads no Tombstone uncle so hope you did him nrnb

Footpad
Brain Power
Saint Calvados
Petite Mouchoir
Robinshill

So anyone backed any of them above each way 3 places i think we're in clover what a book to start Cheltenham 2018 off

Pretty poor that the Arkle only has 5 runners. Think they need to seriously review if not the number of races at least the make up of them, the conditions etc. The Ultima only has 18, although unlikely what if there were 3 non runners and it ended up ew 3 places

Only 3 there maybe more esp with 48hrs

I backed Saint Calvados each way but seen that PP have now changed the bet to 2 places. Their rules say that since they went NRNB rule 4 and place changes applies, I thought they stayed the same regardless?

Yes antepost rules still have to be applied so you will get paid 3 places at whatever the place terms were when you placed the bet!!!

We have this asked every year. The nrnb is a mere concession all other antepost rules have to apply.
If your reading that rule now after final decs then these are true. After final decs you get whatever the place terms are after the race and yes they may change but if bet is placed before final decs your getting your 3 places as it is technically antepost

STS - that is what it has always been to me, but this is the PP rules saying Antepost finished on January 9th:


Cheltenham Ante Post Betting Dates

Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Stayers Hurdle, the Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase --> Ante Post Betting ended on 2 January at 11am

Every other Cheltenham races --> Ante Post Betting ended on 9 January at 12pm

Examples

This is what happens if your horse is a non runner:

If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet before 2 January 11am and your horse is a non runner, your bet will be settled as a loser.
If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet after 2 January 11am and your horse is a non runner, your bet will be settled as a loser.


This is what happens if you placed a bet on a horse and there was a non runner in the same race:

If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet before 2 January 11am and there was a non runner in the race (not your horse), nothing changes to your bet.
If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet after 2 January 11am and there was a non runner in the race (not your horse), Rule 4 applies and your winnings if any might be affected.

Not even gonna read that cos it cannot be applied. In fact it's impossible. Some of their markets had plenty shorties in. Take the supreme e.g. when they went nrnb, do u think that they would rule 4 you on samcro at 7/4? Not gonna happen mate so stop worrying. Tattersalls antepost rules apply nrnb is a mere concession.

When posted above it was sadbrokes who had this in their rules. A few were worried about rule 4s adding up and them getting fook all back etc. It didn't happen. Was just traders getting lazy copying and pasting the nrnb rules that would normally apply after final decs where 48 hour decs apply and a day of race market hasn't yet been properly formed

Magic, that's all utter nonsense...don't worry

If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet after 2 January 11am and your horse is a non runner, your bet will be settled as a loser.


If you placed your bet on a horse for the Champion Hurdle, you placed your bet after 2 January 11am and there was a non runner in the race (not your horse), Rule 4 applies and your winnings if any might be affected

The above cannot happen as they can't have it both ways, if they want to impose a rule 4 they are in affect calling it a day of race market and therefore would be forced to refund N/R's.

They are compelled to abide by the rule, it's not up to them to make their own rules up so don't worry.

I'd be more worried about Saint Calvados clouting one as he try's to match the pace of the other two going up hill and down dale for the first time