Cheltenham Festival
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vroom vroom mag - Gold Cup ?
vroom vroom mag - Gold Cup ?
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Replies: 71
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^^^ Sorry the "I agree" bit was to Charlie
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Seriously VVM has beaten nothing in the Grade 1's she's won. Some of those races were awful. Positives are she's genuine and always runs her race. Completely overrated by the "AP super sub" brigade. imo.
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If you say she is a solid mid 150's (currently 154), with the 7lbs allowance she gets that effectively makes her low 160's. In the Champion and Stayers hurdles, there are only a small number rated higher than 161 (about 4 in Champion Hurdle) and 1 in the Stayers.
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You're right Wellchief but i can't recall the last time a horse won either race running to a mark of 161. Of course that's not to say it won't happen this year. GL.
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As I said, for a mare she is smart. And she is. 9 of those 12 races have been against mares so that isn't form that is worth respecting with regards to a Ryanair or a Stayers tilt.
She's ran well in her 3 open company grade ones in Ireland. But you have to rate Apples Jade highly if you rate VVM highly, and Apples Jade wouldn't be matching it with the boys in a CH or a WH. What's to say VVM would beat Apples Jade in the mares anyway? Considering the latter is open to a lot more improvement and there was nothing between them at Fairyhouse. The mares allowance would make her semi competitive in a Ryanair or a Stayers, but she would still have to find more, and considering she's exposed I think the only way she could possibly win one of those races is if all the leading players performed below par, which is unlikely. I remember people suggesting VVM would beat Annie Power after her Ascot run last year. Annie Power at her best would absolutely destroy Vroum Vroum at 16 furlongs, 20 furlongs or 24. The handicapper says that VVM's last run at Christmas was worth 162 WITH the mares allowance. Where's the extra half a stone coming from to win a Stayers? |
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I also don't buy into the fact she's just going to breeze up in the Ryanair and jump around one of the toughest jumping tracks in the country without problems. Is she a good jumper of a fence? Yes she is. But if she doesn't have a prep run over fences be very careful. It takes time for horses to get accustomed to the obstacle they will be jumping.
Perfect evidence of this is her ballooning of the hurdles in her Ascot run in January 2016. Nov 2015 was her last chase. That's a long time. |
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VVM could be a few pounds better than her rating given her style of racing but I'd agree she'd have it all to do against Jezki and co in a Stayers.
The Mares race would be her best chance of winning but surely thats where Annie will go if they cant get a run into her before Cheltenham. |
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I agree with you mate. I think with the mares allowance she is a decent low to mid 160's horse, so is fully entitled to be near the top of the stayers market.
If harry turns up in the same form, he'll be hard to beat but I think she is the best of the rest. I wouldn't put her anywhere near a Gold Cup or Ryanair myself either. Overall I think she is a good horse that probably gets more attention because of her connections, but she is a solid G1 standard and wouldn't look out of place in most G1 HURDLES races. |
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if she had different connections and exactly the same form in exactly the same races she would n't even be entered in the Gold Cup because she'd be running in the Mares race and this thread would not exist.
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Or the Champion Rease? In a weak year other connections might give it a go.
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she's entitled to have an entry in the Champion yes, like Apple's Jade, and if it really cut up who knows.
It's just the Gold Cup stuff I find fanciful...just my opinion. |
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Totally agree mate. Can't see it in a million years.
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stranger things have happened.
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She's entered in the 3m Galmoy Hurdle next week @ Gowran Park.
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I heard from a bloke, who was sitting in a bar in Kilkenny, that something out of the ordinary is being planned.
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That was a humorous remark you understand
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That was a humorous remark you understand
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To me VVM is a two and a half miler, so on that basis the Mares or Ryanair would give her the best chance of winning a race at the festival.
On a separate note, out of interest,...all those who are saying AP in the Mares, I guess that is because of stable politics? cannot imagine anyone with any sense would actually think a reigning Champion Hurdler should run in the mares the following year?? |
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Connections have chosen the Mares' Hurdle at Doncaster this weekend over 2m, no Stayers then I reckon.
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I would n't draw that conclusion personally - WPM had two for the Galmoy today and has Whiteout for the Grade 2 Mares Hurdle in Huntingdon tomorrow - I think VVM going for the 2 mile race is just a function of her much vaunted versatility.
Shaneshill's win today franks the form of VVM's last two races and neither of them were over 2 miles. Not sure a 2 mile hurdle race is great prep for the Gold Cup though - a bit like Tizzard announcing Thistlecrack is going to run in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. |
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I think VVM will deputise for Annie in the Mares. Seems sensible as reigning champ now that Annie won't be going. Especially after a good performance by Shaneshill today and I think he will run a big race in the Stayers Hurdle myself.
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Shaneshill doesn't stay 3m though
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 True. |
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Only joking impossible. I think Shaneshill is good place material in the stayers, and its definitely the right race, especially if he can stay on his feet. He'll probably run into one too good, but you'll get a good run for your money. Will Willie run him and Nichols in the same race though? I'd have thought not but the betting seems to suggest he will. VVM and Limini in the same race puzzles me too. |
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A well deserved 1st win for Shaneshill for over a year however, the proximity of Snow Falcon and non-performing Clondaw Warrior warrant consideration for the future. Nonetheless, a long overdue win for Shaneshill and certainly well deserved too.
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Would be very surprised if VVM doesn't run in the Mares Hurdle. Ricci's other mare Limini would be hard pressed to beat Apple's Jade so surely he opt to get one on the board. Would be a great clash. I've taken the 5/2 Apple's Jade with PP. GL
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I wonder if VVM might go for stayers. Voler La Vedette gave it a right good go. Is there any point running away from 1 horse ? think she'd stay ?
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I think her best distance is over 20/21f, and 24f could be stretching it too far esp against the likes of Unowhatimeanharry and Cole Harden; she has had a 'cold' recently too but coming back to herself (I believe). Also, Mullins already has Shaneshill and Walsh can only ride one.
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She had Shaneshill beaten when he fell at the last in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over 3 miles and they'd meet on the same terms in the Stayers so it's plausible if Ricci wants to keep her and Limini apart.
Not sure he does though - although Limini has just one entry now. |
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I know he mentioned that it has been a tough season, so they might send 2 to the mares. I know Harry is very handy, but obviously circumstances have changed. It will be interesting whatever they do.
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Could see them running her in this, but Clondaw Warrior is the fly in the ointment for me. Got far too close to her at Christmas for my liking, then of course Snow Falcon reversed the form next time out. The Irish staying form is a bit skewed, I can't work it out.
However, upon saying all that, VVM would be a danger wherever she runs. |