Cheltenham Festival
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I can't understand how Altior is so much shorter than BD in the betting either especially as BD will appreciate the cut in the ground. Biggest danger to Min will be getting worked up in the parade ring before the race I think. Not sure where the story came from about Ruby riding riding Yorkhill. Why would RW tell Hills radio that he would ride Yorkhill given his association to PP? Baffling
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All RW said was he rides Min.....did he say what race?
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Buveur dair I'm assuming is slightly weak because the piece of work they did this weekend where altior won from his lead horse easily and buveur dair was behind vaniteux.
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Pretty sure the Twitter quotes were he would choose Min over Yorkhill for the Supreme.
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This was reported by hendedson but Could be misleading as iv no idea who altior was working with.
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@MW just causing mischief. As usual loads of garbage, rumour and counter-rumour in lead up to festival.
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Cannot get link to work. Point I make is that my first post not entirely serious. Lots of 2+2 = 5.
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5/2 with hills at the moment.
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Good going suits Altior better but Buveur D'air likes it soft, according to trainer.
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I can't see too much in Min's form that means he is capable of achieving 155+. In fact Gurteens recent defeat (6th March) puts the dampeners on his chances a little for me.
Douvan and Vautour were rated 155 when winning and Mullins rates Min inferior to them, so I'm guessing that he's a 150 horse. Champagne Fever (148), Cinders And Ashes (142), Al Ferof (142)means that in an average renewal he may well be good enough, but in this particular race with two 154 rated and Yorkhill also looking 150+ then Min isn't a certainty in the Limini or UDS bracket for me. |
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Min is rated 159, the same for Yorkhill with Altior on 161 and Buveur D'Air on 155 with the Racing Post.
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Gurteen finished injured in it's last race fractured a leg hth Shrews
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Gurteen also won a P2P over 3m. Campaigning him over 2m wouldn't be showing him in the best light methinks
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Faugheen what was it's 1st race
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Gurteen is no Faugheen. I think thats safe to say
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first rule of betting club is, nicky never wins the supreme.
 second rule of betting club is, nicky never wins the supreme... |
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1986 and 1992 he is overdue many placed horses,maybe this is the year?
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I must admit that if (the first rule of betting club is that nicky never wins the supreme
)I'd really want to back this second string of Hendo's here. Won at Newbury like something had put a rocket up his bum. Far more visually impressive than this Altior for me. Given the increasing doubts about Min, Yorkhill is well fancied but that might be a feint by the mullins stable and the rest probably aren't good enough that leaves the hendo second string who's name I can't spell if only for one thing, first rule of betting club is nicky never win the supreme apart from flown in 1992  I think there's a solid reason why Hendo doesn't win the supreme actually. His hurdlers tend to be flat track types that are best suited by places like Newbury and Kempton etc. My Tent or yours for example didn't get up the hill. Neither did Binocular either, although he won the champion a couple of years later This second string probably won't get up the hill either, but at the prices I might just take the risk. Given I think he's the best horse in the race it would be pretty stupid not to, although I admit I'm breaking the first rule of betting club. |
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He's a trainer that is normally fairly gentle with his novices,and he gets the best of them after their novice season. Hence winning the CHurdle a fair few times.
Altior to me looks a bit different to his previous class horses he's not won the race with. Think he's more than ready to run a big race. Whether he's the best on the day is another matter. |
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different how?
he's another one who's best performance is on a flat track. I think the problem is his horses have brilliant speed, which tends to get blunted by the hill. up the cheltenham hill you need different qualities. |
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Problem with that is a lot of these novices that don't win the supreme go on to win at the festival and certainly get up the hill then.
I just look at Altior and see a horse that finds plenty when asked,and looks a tough sort rather than a Sprinter Sacre type if yer like,when he was a novice. Just my views mate. |
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I look at Altior and see a horse who was all-out to beat an injured Maputo a head
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Im 1/5 rides the winner aka MIN, Yorkihill wont get within sniffing distance of it and i think itd be better if Yorkhill ran in the Neptune.
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Im 1/5 Ruby rides the winner aka MIN, Yorkihill wont get within sniffing distance of it and i think itd be better if Yorkhill ran in the Neptune.
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Altiors race at Cheltenham was a farce of a race. Small field, slowly run and pulling for its life for most of the first circuit. Eventually turned into a sprint. Settled much better in a faster run affair at Kempton.
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maybe budd, but don't you think that sprinter sacre is a tough horse given what he's done subsequently?
I think this hill blunt's the hendo's horses explosive speed |
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Well hes had a lot of festival winners as well as other Cheltenham winners,but not too many novice hurdle winners.
Sprinter Sacre was weak as a novice, otherwise he would have p1ssed that supreme given what he did in the next couple of years. Like I said its just my view mate that he trains his novices with their futures very much in mind, and is gentle with them as novices. What I saw with Altior at Kempton was a horse that looked to me a typical supreme horse, reminded me a bit of Al Ferof. Like I said I think he may be a bit different. But its opinions mate,thats all. |
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Hendo also had Zaynar win this a few years back.
I like both of his against Min but Altior gives the impression he would be better equipped in a scrap than Belvour. I have been very impressed with his progression this season. Min will have to be exceptional to beat him. He may be; but the vibes aren't that great and he seems he may be a bit 'fizzy.' Possibly for his backers see how he handles the preliminaries. |
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Zaynar won the triumph hurdle.
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Whoops, yes I know and backed it!
Was trying to add weight to the Henderson hurdlers argument and meant to say Triumph. |
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I don't get all this worry about min doing too much through his races, he doesn't. What we saw last time was how he comfortably travels through his races, yes it's powerful and to some horses it may equate to doing too much, but we saw just how much it took out of him by the way he powered on strongly again off the home straight, it took precisely nothing out of him so what he did through the race was within his natural capabilities without worry of compromising his chances late on....the question that needs asking is how are the others going to keep tabs on him and then go past him as he kicks again, he is a fantastic jumper too, never touched a twig at punchestown.
Min will win the Supreme in much the same way as Vautour did IMO. |
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I hope Min makes the running at its own pace, and wins especially at odds of 5/2 or more - his style of running is similar to Faugheen I think ie goes off infront, winds it up, stays and runs to the line.
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duffy your 500% correct, exactly my thoughts, i think this beast should be slight odds on.
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I'd love min to go off at 3/1 which would qualify me for 3 x £50 bets when he wins if Betfair's promo is to be believed
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Youll be lucky if Min goes off bigger than 7/4
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Sheds load of cash waiting to back Min, and Yorkhill is going the opposite way - a pure coincidence? My FOOT!
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Min's price from now until the off will only go one way, god help the firms who put it up against him over the odds.
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I can't understand why quite so many so called 'experts' at these preview nights keep saying Min is a shocking price.
It looks a very weak Supreme to me. Yorkhill looks like going for the Neptune, Buveur d'Air and Tombstone both drifting, and neither have form to worry the two principals to my eyes, Moon Racer is not going to make the race and next in the betting is Supasundae. It essentially looks a two horse race to me. Min v Altior. And both represent decent value imo, whichever one you fancy. I can see arguments for both, but I'm backing Min myself. |