I'd probably be against her in the Champion Hurdle if she ran though.

Why did they leave Faugheen in the race this morning?

Nigel Twiston-Davies is "sad" Faugheen has been ruled out of the Stan James Champion Hurdle with injury - but admits the title holder's absence in the Cheltenham showpiece does help the cause of his runner, The New One.

The Naunton trainer was looking forward to having another crack at Willie Mullins' brilliant performer with his stable star, who was an unlucky third in the blue riband to Jezki in 2014.

The New One was twice been beaten by Faugheen. Fifth in the Champion last year, he was seven lengths adrift in second place behind the Irish raider in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, before winning at Haydock last month in his last public appearance before next month's Festival.

"It's bad for them and I'm sad he's not in the race as we hoped we'd serve it up to him," said Twiston-Davies.

"We weren't frightened of having a go, but it makes our life a bit easier."

Twiston-Davies reports The New One to be in rude health with the big race now just under four weeks away.

"Everything's going superbly," said the Naunton handler.

"I've never had him better. We've got to keep touching wood because obviously things can go wrong, as we've seen with Faugheen."

Memory of the Festival - The New One - wins the Champion - and Nige throws his jacket into the air - after 33 glorious years of wear.

^^^ An army of 30 DEC :)

I backed TNO antepost earlier in the season  but got burnt on the day last year as I thought "impossible not to place".....  Still can see Silly Twiston Davies getting him beat though without Faugheen

Wouldn't be shocked if The New One came storming up the hill this year, but I won't be on him. Sometimes the most unfancied ones turn up and shut everyone up, like Jezki did 2 years ago. I really fancied The New One in 2014, but every time he's ran since the 2014 CH which is 9 times in total, he's been awfully poor to be honest.

Completely undecided on Annie Power. Whilst I'm far from impressed by her prep for a race like this (can't be helped I know), I think she's still unexposed, at this trip anyway. She's never really had the chance to show us what she can do over 2 miles yet, and she does look fairly pacy to my eye. People writing her off already I think are mad, but at the same time I wouldn't be getting too carried away with her chances. One bonus is she's pretty versatile ground wise and we know she gets a lot further so she's quite likely to stay on up the hill.

The two key question marks for me are, is she fast enough and is she in good enough condition.

Look at what he's won since the 2014 Champion Hurdle though. He's won 7 out of 9 which looks on the face of it impressive, but when you look at the form, other than a past his best Rock On Ruby that he beat a head at Aintree, he has literally beaten sweet nothing.

If fighting to beat Rayvin Black, Stephanie Francs, Bertimont, Vaniteux (poor hurdler), Zamdy Man and Hint of Mint is your bag, then knock yourself out, but it's not mine.

His form prior 2014 CH was incredibly impressive, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.

I hope Top Notch takes his chance,not a million miles away from Identity Thief and should still be improving.

^ Grrr!

What I was trying to say is that there's every chance STD will try and get TNO beat as Nicholls will probably make him ride Old Guard like he did at Christmas!

I am absolutely stumped by this race now. Everything is either the right price or a bad price. Value in Hargam 25/1, Sempre Medici 33/1 maybe Peace & Co 20/1

MTOY is not running at Wincanton due to the testing conditions.

The value has to be Top Notch in my eyes.  Less than a length defeat by Identity Thief only 7 days after a hard race against Iriving - IF is 6/1 and TN is 25/1 - no brainer.

I backed Hargam ages ago (about 9 months ago - it was me who had him added to the market back in April 15), and I've been trying to lay the bet off at 40's for ages, and with Faugheen out, it might give me a chance to get my stake back.  If anyone wants 40's on him, you can buy my bet.

Hargam hasn't quite progressed as much as I'd like him too.  I know he hasn't had his ground this year, and it was a decent run in the Christmas Hurdle, but he still has 4 lengths to make up with Top Notch in the Triumph, and not many Champion Hurdle winners have form figures of 36-433.

Also backed Peace and Co, and thought I had no chance of getting rid of that bet either.  Backed at 14's and can lay off at 22 on here, but I'll wait a bit and hope his price contracts a bit more, but either way, I'll be getting rid of that one too.

Of the short ones in the market, I'd probably choose Nichols Canyon.  Improved at a fast rate last year, and I think he would have comfortably beaten Arctic Fire last time out, but they decided to take on Faugheen for the race win, whereas Arctic Fire mopped up second place, when he never even got in the race to begin with.

I'd certainly have Nichols Canyon shorter than Arctic Fire in the betting anyway.

Already backed MTOY (want to keep) and Hargam and Peace & Co (want to get rid), so if I manage to lay them off, I'll go in on Top Notch NRNB, but not backing 4, so I'll have to wait a bit first.

Yeah Kavvie, you can make a case for and against a lot of them now, as there is no standout.

My worry with Arctic Fire is I've alway thought Nicholls looked more of a stayer than AF ever has, but they've tried him over 2.5m three time since his second in the Champion and once over 3m.

Just reading between the lines, I think that means they think he is not good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, but that might be me reading too much into it.

If my book was wiped clean and could start afresh, I'd back Top Notch at 25's, but I'd be most worried about Nichols Canyon at the prices.

Yeah, I don't think Arctic Fire necessarily get the credit he deserves (would have hacked up in the Aintree Hurdle), but if there is no Annie, he is likely to go off fav, and based on this year's runs I think he might be a bit of a false favourite, although I completely get he is better on better ground, and was a good second last year.

He only beat Monksland first time out because Monksland clouted the last, then he has 20lbs in hand when he won the Hattons Grace, and I'll forgive him his attempt at 3m.

Don't want to sound like I'm knocking him, but I think there is very little between him, Nichols, Identity Thief (and therefore Top Notch), so I'd choose the ones at the bigger prices.

Could be a year, where something completely out the blue wins though - Punjabi, Rock on Ruby etc.

Before my time mate, so no comment sorry!

I certainly get why people question Arctic Fire given his wins-to-runs ratio. I may be completely wrong but I have a feeling he has just been genuinely unlucky to have bumped into so many horses that might one day be described as all-time greats. Fair to say that if he can't win this year's race he's unlikely to ever win one.

Cheers mate.  It'll be interesting to see if he chooses Peace and Co or Top Notch.

I reckon he'd choose P&C, but I know which one I'd choose.

Shame MTOY cannot run tmrw cos of the ground.
Hopefully he can get a run somewhere, he will need one I would think.
Kempton AW bumper perhaps?