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It looks to all after Faugheens devastating win in the Irish Champion Hurdle that it’s simply a penalty kick. But as Hurricane Fly showed when being beaten at odds on in 2012 by Rock on Ruby and Overturn horses aren’t machines and they can run below form. So given the general price of 2/5 about Faugheen we need to nit pick. Firstly he does clout a few hurdles and though it hasn’t stopped him yet, it may stop him one of these days. Next is his first two runs of this season don’t make him a 2/5 shot. He was beaten by Nichols Canyon fto and then was an impressive 7l winner over The New One and Hargam. The huge price crash came on the back of his last race where it could be easy to take a view his main two rivals were not at their best, Nichols Canyon had a tough race at Christmas while Arctic Fire ran shockingly over 3 miles. We add to that I don’t believe either horse is a proper 2 miler, I think both are better suited to further. Faugheen makes them look slow. So while there may be reasons to not fully rate Faugheens latest win as good as it is I don’t doubt he’ll confirm placings with those two horses at Cheltenham.
So who do we take Faugheen on with? I think Identity Thief is improving but just feel he is going to be seen at his best when he goes over fences and I think he’ll be better over further. So I think he will be vulnerable on the better ground and quicker track on the Cheltenham Old Course. The New One is well past his best and his chances of winning a Champion Hurdle are in the past. I feel last seasons Juveniles have been underrated, Top Notch went down when coming of only a 1 week break to Identity Thief while Hargam gave a decent running against Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle. I think Peace & Co is quite a bit better than both of those and he is open to improvement.
We all know he ran like a lunatic on his first run of the season and there was no chance he was getting home. He didn’t settle on his first run last season either but by the time of his 3rd run in the Triumph he was his most settled. So he might be one who needs the buzz and freshness out of him. But what draws me to him for this is I don’t think any of the rivals to Faugheen are clearly better than him. While for many others already discussed the end to end fast pace Faugheen will set over 2 miles on good to soft around Old Course at Cheltenham won’t be playing to their strengths. I think it will be the complete ideal conditions for Peace & Co. He hurdles like Hurricane Fly & Binocular so quick into them and so quick away. With Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief there to take Faugheen on for the lead we will see some serious pace on here. That will certainly suit Peace & Co and he’s the only horse I can see who has potential to possibly give Faugheen a race and I think being priced up as the 4th fav to chase Faugheen home is some good value as is the general 14/1 available for him outright.
Peace & Co – 1pt e/w 14/1
Peace & Co without Faugheen – 1pt e/w 6/1
@cvbyrne
http://jumpsadviser.com/champion-hurdle-preview/
So who do we take Faugheen on with? I think Identity Thief is improving but just feel he is going to be seen at his best when he goes over fences and I think he’ll be better over further. So I think he will be vulnerable on the better ground and quicker track on the Cheltenham Old Course. The New One is well past his best and his chances of winning a Champion Hurdle are in the past. I feel last seasons Juveniles have been underrated, Top Notch went down when coming of only a 1 week break to Identity Thief while Hargam gave a decent running against Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle. I think Peace & Co is quite a bit better than both of those and he is open to improvement.
We all know he ran like a lunatic on his first run of the season and there was no chance he was getting home. He didn’t settle on his first run last season either but by the time of his 3rd run in the Triumph he was his most settled. So he might be one who needs the buzz and freshness out of him. But what draws me to him for this is I don’t think any of the rivals to Faugheen are clearly better than him. While for many others already discussed the end to end fast pace Faugheen will set over 2 miles on good to soft around Old Course at Cheltenham won’t be playing to their strengths. I think it will be the complete ideal conditions for Peace & Co. He hurdles like Hurricane Fly & Binocular so quick into them and so quick away. With Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief there to take Faugheen on for the lead we will see some serious pace on here. That will certainly suit Peace & Co and he’s the only horse I can see who has potential to possibly give Faugheen a race and I think being priced up as the 4th fav to chase Faugheen home is some good value as is the general 14/1 available for him outright.
Peace & Co – 1pt e/w 14/1
Peace & Co without Faugheen – 1pt e/w 6/1
@cvbyrne
http://jumpsadviser.com/champion-hurdle-preview/
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AF was considered for Melbourne Cup last year after the CH and NC won few listed races just over 2 years ago. They couldn't be more suited to 2 miles, they're both flat types with good bursting speed at the end just as Istabraq. Comparing HF with Faugheen couldn't be more strange, HF thrived on slowly run races and was always caught in quality strongly run races. In his younger years he would've been the Theatreworld of Faugheen(in Ireland) and in a measure he was last year in the CH.
And for the rest of your post a balance is needed and the best is to quote Simon Rowlands who was in the same anti-Faugheen camp after he got beat on his reappearance:
A TRIP to Mumbai for the Asian Racing Conference means I missed a chunk of action at a crucial stage of the jumps season and was unable to file a time-analysis column last week.
Hence this extended edition of Time Will Tell, which covers the notable events of the last two weekends of January.
It is possible to follow events from afar in these days of instant communication, of course, and delegates at the conference chatted about Faugheen, Douvan and Un De Sceaux as well as discussing, more formally, the likes of handicapping, illegal betting and the future of racing in mainland China.
Reports from Ireland and Britain provided remarkably little insight into certain aspects of those and other performances.
What were they like on the clock? How reliable is the form likely to prove? Those questions are still valid some time after the event, and this column will attempt to answer them.
SENSATIONAL FAUGHEEN
Although spoilt for choice, the first stop simply has to be Leopardstown on Sunday January 24th.
Faugheen’s 15-length defeat of Arctic Fire in the BHP Insurances Champion Hurdle, with Nichols Canyon – the only horse to have beaten Faugheen previously – a further 13 lengths back in third, looks sensational on paper and is every bit as sensational in terms of time.
Faugheen set out to make it a good test and was more than 30 lengths ahead of where the leader in the opening maiden hurdle had been by halfway.
By the finish, he was around 50 lengths to the good and had run the much more talented rivals who actually opposed him into the ground.
That maiden hurdle was neither strongly run nor especially strong form but there was also a half-decent bumper over the same distance later on the card and Faugheen’s time trounced that, too.
Faugheen’s timefigure comes out at an exceptional 177 - the best by a hurdler by some way in recent times.
Arctic Fire, who had made something of a race of it with Faugheen in the 2015 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, might actually have run one of his better races here but was simply blown away.
It is most unlikely that Faugheen will be beaten at Cheltenham in this sort of form (yes – I am regretting laying him for the Champion after that Punchestown defeat!), and perhaps the only glimmer of hope for his rivals is that racing tends not to be quite that simple.
Whatever, the evidence is that Faugheen is potentially one of the all-time great hurdlers, and you don’t need to have backed him to be excited by that!
And for the rest of your post a balance is needed and the best is to quote Simon Rowlands who was in the same anti-Faugheen camp after he got beat on his reappearance:
A TRIP to Mumbai for the Asian Racing Conference means I missed a chunk of action at a crucial stage of the jumps season and was unable to file a time-analysis column last week.
Hence this extended edition of Time Will Tell, which covers the notable events of the last two weekends of January.
It is possible to follow events from afar in these days of instant communication, of course, and delegates at the conference chatted about Faugheen, Douvan and Un De Sceaux as well as discussing, more formally, the likes of handicapping, illegal betting and the future of racing in mainland China.
Reports from Ireland and Britain provided remarkably little insight into certain aspects of those and other performances.
What were they like on the clock? How reliable is the form likely to prove? Those questions are still valid some time after the event, and this column will attempt to answer them.
SENSATIONAL FAUGHEEN
Although spoilt for choice, the first stop simply has to be Leopardstown on Sunday January 24th.
Faugheen’s 15-length defeat of Arctic Fire in the BHP Insurances Champion Hurdle, with Nichols Canyon – the only horse to have beaten Faugheen previously – a further 13 lengths back in third, looks sensational on paper and is every bit as sensational in terms of time.
Faugheen set out to make it a good test and was more than 30 lengths ahead of where the leader in the opening maiden hurdle had been by halfway.
By the finish, he was around 50 lengths to the good and had run the much more talented rivals who actually opposed him into the ground.
That maiden hurdle was neither strongly run nor especially strong form but there was also a half-decent bumper over the same distance later on the card and Faugheen’s time trounced that, too.
Faugheen’s timefigure comes out at an exceptional 177 - the best by a hurdler by some way in recent times.
Arctic Fire, who had made something of a race of it with Faugheen in the 2015 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, might actually have run one of his better races here but was simply blown away.
It is most unlikely that Faugheen will be beaten at Cheltenham in this sort of form (yes – I am regretting laying him for the Champion after that Punchestown defeat!), and perhaps the only glimmer of hope for his rivals is that racing tends not to be quite that simple.
Whatever, the evidence is that Faugheen is potentially one of the all-time great hurdlers, and you don’t need to have backed him to be excited by that!
2nd season juveniles are stinking the place out
Utterly useless from him. I now have completely lost all belief in him. He's not even near good enough to place in a Champion Hurdle.
Talk about stupid timing for a preview post
Talk about stupid timing for a preview post
50/1 on here for the Champion now. I'd say that's on the short side!
Little bit harsh on old guard and to notch in my view IS.
Champion Hurdle now about as interesting as the mares hurdle
Old Guard is a massive improver, i backed him all last season 
Top Notch ran well until they decided he was a stayer.
Top Notch ran well until they decided he was a stayer.
TN could always give F a race from the front, P&C evidence showed he can't. Hendo couldn't have been more wrong when assessing his own horses, who as juveniles have different improving rates and TN seems to have surpassed his Triumph conqueror by some way this season.
Insurance's first victory in 1932, only had 2 rivals and started 4/5 favourite. Then Blaris on the CH festival inaugural in 1927, started 11/10 fav in a 4 runner field. We'll have at least 9: F AF NC IT MTOY, TNO, Camping G, War Sound, P&C, OG, ...)
I still think PAC is a quality horse but I've lost all confidence in the trainer. As already mentioned TN was doing well til they put him in a stayers race 
PAC didn't seem interested today, wouldn't back him against any opposition until he shows otherwise tbh
Hard lines, CV - good to see you though, hope all well?
On the plus side they still seem interested in running him and he's always had that mercurial, potentially brilliant, Binocular-type air about him.
You might still be on a runner? Increasingly looking like a penalty kick for the fav though.
Fwiw I thought Sign Of A Victory (don't laugh) ran an eye-catching race in the Christmas Hurdle until the ground kicked in and I'm fiddling away with him at any tempting prices in various markets that don't mean we have to beat Faugheen to be paid.....
On the plus side they still seem interested in running him and he's always had that mercurial, potentially brilliant, Binocular-type air about him.
You might still be on a runner? Increasingly looking like a penalty kick for the fav though.
Fwiw I thought Sign Of A Victory (don't laugh) ran an eye-catching race in the Christmas Hurdle until the ground kicked in and I'm fiddling away with him at any tempting prices in various markets that don't mean we have to beat Faugheen to be paid.....
I wouldn't completely give up hope on Peace & Co, lets remember he is only a 5 year old and it's very rare a horse of that age will win a Champion Hurdle, particularly when you have something like Faugheen at the zenith of his racing life standing in the way. I'm happy to write him off for the rest of this season but I do think he will show he is a much better horse than what he has put up in his past two runs. Surely Henderson must use this season as one to educate P&C.
I think it was Nevison earlier on RUK who said this was a terrible race for a horse like him to run in, he stated the Betfair Hurdle next weekend would have been the perfect race for him, a big field and a super quick pace. I couldn't have agreed more. He may have been top dog at the weights in the Betfair but winning it or protecting some kind of mark isn't the aim, the aim is to teach him to settle down early on and give him the best possible chance of doing so. The way Henderson is training him clearly isn't working and this isn't the first horse he's had issues with. Recently you only have to look at MTOY, Simonsig and even Sprinter Sacre to a lesser extent to see he struggles to get buzzy horses to settle.
Whether ground is another issue for him I have no idea and I wouldn't use that as an excuse for him. However it would be nice to see him race on good ground as he's only ever ran on soft ground before.
I think it was Nevison earlier on RUK who said this was a terrible race for a horse like him to run in, he stated the Betfair Hurdle next weekend would have been the perfect race for him, a big field and a super quick pace. I couldn't have agreed more. He may have been top dog at the weights in the Betfair but winning it or protecting some kind of mark isn't the aim, the aim is to teach him to settle down early on and give him the best possible chance of doing so. The way Henderson is training him clearly isn't working and this isn't the first horse he's had issues with. Recently you only have to look at MTOY, Simonsig and even Sprinter Sacre to a lesser extent to see he struggles to get buzzy horses to settle.
Whether ground is another issue for him I have no idea and I wouldn't use that as an excuse for him. However it would be nice to see him race on good ground as he's only ever ran on soft ground before.
The problem with P AND C isn't ability rated and even today he settled much better, I wouldn't be surprised if he has some sort of hidden problem, when he came under proper pressure today see how his head came up, he was hating something pretty bad by the looks of it.
Anyone heard any news on mtoy,if fit and back to his best might place at 25s
going for a racecourse gallop before the Kingwell. 16/1 without fav looks the bet instead of the 25s in main market as the 2nd place is all up for grabs, but then again maybe not a great bet considering the long layoff and Hendos record with these.
I probably bet at odds-on less than five times a season, but can't help but thinking this race is a foregone conclusion. 2-5 looks perfectly fair to me - 40% return for a few minutes 'work' in a race in which Faugheen has stacks in hand of all of his rivals, and with him utterly proven at track, trip and under Festival conditions.
Sometimes there really is no mileage in trying to find a clever bet to take on a good thing with. If odds-on pokes really aren't your bag, I'd sit this one our personally.
Sometimes there really is no mileage in trying to find a clever bet to take on a good thing with. If odds-on pokes really aren't your bag, I'd sit this one our personally.
same here tom a race I have ignored due to looking like a penalty kick for the fav ...............I cant see no juice trying to find one to beat it or in the without market .
More juice than 2-5,there is only 3 or 4 other horses good enough to place
Agree, waste of time looking to get Faugheen beat. He's answered every question you could think of asking him, and answered them with total authority. The only niggle in his past formbook was his jumping, but even this season he's an improved jumper. He may still be clumsy at one or two, but who isn't? I've only ever seen one horse immaculate at every flight and he ran in royal blue for Mr Mullins.
I've already made my thoughts known on what I think of the standard of this Champion Hurdle in behind Faugheen, but we are witnessing a remarkable horse and this season is the best he will ever be, so enjoy him.
Don't see no harm trying to find something in the W/O market though if you think there's something in there at a price, but the without market is the only way to play unless you're doing a forecast or tricast.
I've already made my thoughts known on what I think of the standard of this Champion Hurdle in behind Faugheen, but we are witnessing a remarkable horse and this season is the best he will ever be, so enjoy him.
Don't see no harm trying to find something in the W/O market though if you think there's something in there at a price, but the without market is the only way to play unless you're doing a forecast or tricast.
I was all over faugheen last year if you look at last year's threads and not everyone on here was,but you might aswell look at the without market,faugheen will win but at 2-5 I'm not rich enough to be backing a horse at that price,artic fire,the new one,Nichols canyon and mtoy are the only others that can fill them places,and I'm not sure nichols canyon will even run.
It wouldn't bother me putting Faugheen in the odd double or treble at 2/5 to increase your winnings a bit, but I couldn't go in big in a single.
The Annie Power incident should live long in the memory, in that even when one is so much better than the rest, they can still come down, and Faugheen has clouted a fair few, so I wouldn't be going in massive on a single bet, but each to their own.
The Annie Power incident should live long in the memory, in that even when one is so much better than the rest, they can still come down, and Faugheen has clouted a fair few, so I wouldn't be going in massive on a single bet, but each to their own.
I wouldn't be going in massive either, but even 100 quid will return 40 quid profit that will pay for your drinks on the day.
Betting in the without market is realistically the only way to go as betting E/W in this is bad option. Arctic Fire, probably the best place option is a best-priced 8-1, so for a 1pt EW bet your return is 3 pts, should be make the frame and not beat Faugheen. I'd rather back Faugheen at 2-5 than (effectively) Arctic Fire at 1-2 to be second or third...
Betting in the without market is realistically the only way to go as betting E/W in this is bad option. Arctic Fire, probably the best place option is a best-priced 8-1, so for a 1pt EW bet your return is 3 pts, should be make the frame and not beat Faugheen. I'd rather back Faugheen at 2-5 than (effectively) Arctic Fire at 1-2 to be second or third...
last years juveniles don't look
good atm.
You could throw a blanket over
the 1st 3 in the Triumph,they've
all been stuffed so far this season,aswell.
good atm.
You could throw a blanket over
the 1st 3 in the Triumph,they've
all been stuffed so far this season,aswell.
I wouldn't be going in massive either, but even 100 quid will return 40 quid profit that will pay for your drinks on the day.
I need to go on a diet like you
I need to go on a diet like you
A horse I quite like is All Yours. He ran ok at Cheltenham last year but he ideally wants a flat track and good ground.
In a race that could cut up really badly and if last years juveniles that have raced haven;t looked great, perhaps this can sneak into a place at 66/1.
Has been kept under wraps all season and Aintree is probably the target but interesting that Nicholls sees fit to enter him in thee Champion. A bit to find on ratings but would be no surpise he if had improved 12lb since last year and that is enough to get him in the shake up here.
Small e/w bet at 66/1. Picture I took of him at Aintree last year
In a race that could cut up really badly and if last years juveniles that have raced haven;t looked great, perhaps this can sneak into a place at 66/1.
Has been kept under wraps all season and Aintree is probably the target but interesting that Nicholls sees fit to enter him in thee Champion. A bit to find on ratings but would be no surpise he if had improved 12lb since last year and that is enough to get him in the shake up here.
Small e/w bet at 66/1. Picture I took of him at Aintree last year
Actually thee 50/1 without thee machine looks better.
Scrub that, he answered my question on his Q&A tonight and looks like County Hurdle (ground permitting)
Scrub that, he answered my question on his Q&A tonight and looks like County Hurdle (ground permitting)
Post wind op and at 33/1 and 14/1 w/o Faugheen I would think Peace & Co is worth a poke at those prices.
Unfortunately I've already invested at shorter. But we know all too well how much improvement wind ops can be. Not to mention he'll strip fitter and will improve for better ground.
I remember Punjabi falling and coming well beaten in the Kingwell on his two starts prior to winning the Champion Hurdle. Not a total lost cause
Unfortunately I've already invested at shorter. But we know all too well how much improvement wind ops can be. Not to mention he'll strip fitter and will improve for better ground.
I remember Punjabi falling and coming well beaten in the Kingwell on his two starts prior to winning the Champion Hurdle. Not a total lost cause
Really? I personally think the wind operation is pure desperation, a lobotomy would be more in order. GL to anyone on P&C think you will need it.
latest defectors
War Sound, Aristo Du Plessis, Mad Jack Mytton, Parlour Games, All Yours.
War Sound, Aristo Du Plessis, Mad Jack Mytton, Parlour Games, All Yours.
Without doubt, this will be my last year anteposting. I can not describe the pummeling my book has had in the last two weeks.
No bets on Faugheen other than silly little £2 accas. Really knocks you back when you hear news like this.
Gutted for the horse.
Annie Power to finally take her chance then?
Gutted for the horse.
Annie Power to finally take her chance then?
I'd probably be against her in the Champion Hurdle if she ran though.
I hate this supplementary option. You look at what's entered, and take your chance and potentially get stuffed by a horse not even entered. The cost is not an issue to guys like Ricci and this makes it an even less level playing field than it already was.
It is ironic though that Willie hasn't entered Annie Power when he enters everything in all races.
It is ironic though that Willie hasn't entered Annie Power when he enters everything in all races.
Why did they leave Faugheen in the race this morning?
Was thinking of Hargam at 40/1 at minimun stake. That went after faugheen news. Took 25/1 though. Just for an interest.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is "sad" Faugheen has been ruled out of the Stan James Champion Hurdle with injury - but admits the title holder's absence in the Cheltenham showpiece does help the cause of his runner, The New One.
The Naunton trainer was looking forward to having another crack at Willie Mullins' brilliant performer with his stable star, who was an unlucky third in the blue riband to Jezki in 2014.
The New One was twice been beaten by Faugheen. Fifth in the Champion last year, he was seven lengths adrift in second place behind the Irish raider in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, before winning at Haydock last month in his last public appearance before next month's Festival.
"It's bad for them and I'm sad he's not in the race as we hoped we'd serve it up to him," said Twiston-Davies.
"We weren't frightened of having a go, but it makes our life a bit easier."
Twiston-Davies reports The New One to be in rude health with the big race now just under four weeks away.
"Everything's going superbly," said the Naunton handler.
"I've never had him better. We've got to keep touching wood because obviously things can go wrong, as we've seen with Faugheen."
The Naunton trainer was looking forward to having another crack at Willie Mullins' brilliant performer with his stable star, who was an unlucky third in the blue riband to Jezki in 2014.
The New One was twice been beaten by Faugheen. Fifth in the Champion last year, he was seven lengths adrift in second place behind the Irish raider in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day, before winning at Haydock last month in his last public appearance before next month's Festival.
"It's bad for them and I'm sad he's not in the race as we hoped we'd serve it up to him," said Twiston-Davies.
"We weren't frightened of having a go, but it makes our life a bit easier."
Twiston-Davies reports The New One to be in rude health with the big race now just under four weeks away.
"Everything's going superbly," said the Naunton handler.
"I've never had him better. We've got to keep touching wood because obviously things can go wrong, as we've seen with Faugheen."
We weren't frightened of having a go, but it makes our life a bit easier."
Don't worry Nigel, your job will still be plenty hard enough trying to get this thing past the post first in a CH, Faugheen or not
Don't worry Nigel, your job will still be plenty hard enough trying to get this thing past the post first in a CH, Faugheen or not
Memory of the Festival - The New One - wins the Champion - and Nige throws his jacket into the air - after 33 glorious years of wear.
Nige is a big lad, even so would take some effort to hurl that duffel coat in the air
I reckon if they ran the race clockwise TNO might win. I do agree he does re-enter the equation now though but he wont carry any of my money anyway.
I backed TNO antepost earlier in the season but got burnt on the day last year as I thought "impossible not to place"..... Still can see Silly Twiston Davies getting him beat though without Faugheen
Silly Twiston Davies would only work as a joke if he was ridden by his brother and not sam
Wouldn't be shocked if The New One came storming up the hill this year, but I won't be on him. Sometimes the most unfancied ones turn up and shut everyone up, like Jezki did 2 years ago. I really fancied The New One in 2014, but every time he's ran since the 2014 CH which is 9 times in total, he's been awfully poor to be honest.
Completely undecided on Annie Power. Whilst I'm far from impressed by her prep for a race like this (can't be helped I know), I think she's still unexposed, at this trip anyway. She's never really had the chance to show us what she can do over 2 miles yet, and she does look fairly pacy to my eye. People writing her off already I think are mad, but at the same time I wouldn't be getting too carried away with her chances. One bonus is she's pretty versatile ground wise and we know she gets a lot further so she's quite likely to stay on up the hill.
The two key question marks for me are, is she fast enough and is she in good enough condition.
Completely undecided on Annie Power. Whilst I'm far from impressed by her prep for a race like this (can't be helped I know), I think she's still unexposed, at this trip anyway. She's never really had the chance to show us what she can do over 2 miles yet, and she does look fairly pacy to my eye. People writing her off already I think are mad, but at the same time I wouldn't be getting too carried away with her chances. One bonus is she's pretty versatile ground wise and we know she gets a lot further so she's quite likely to stay on up the hill.
The two key question marks for me are, is she fast enough and is she in good enough condition.
fOR A HORSE THAT HAS WON 16/23 (ISH) The New One takes some clobber.
Look at what he's won since the 2014 Champion Hurdle though. He's won 7 out of 9 which looks on the face of it impressive, but when you look at the form, other than a past his best Rock On Ruby that he beat a head at Aintree, he has literally beaten sweet nothing.
If fighting to beat Rayvin Black, Stephanie Francs, Bertimont, Vaniteux (poor hurdler), Zamdy Man and Hint of Mint is your bag, then knock yourself out, but it's not mine.
His form prior 2014 CH was incredibly impressive, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.
If fighting to beat Rayvin Black, Stephanie Francs, Bertimont, Vaniteux (poor hurdler), Zamdy Man and Hint of Mint is your bag, then knock yourself out, but it's not mine.
His form prior 2014 CH was incredibly impressive, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then.
TNO keeps winning though. No match for Faugheen obviously, but then who is when he's right. Got a lot closer than those in Ireland.
I hope Top Notch takes his chance,not a million miles away from Identity Thief and should still be improving.
This race has certainly livened up now as a betting proposition.
Especially when the head of the market has 2 horses that were being seriously considered for the stayers hurdle earlier this season.
Especially when the head of the market has 2 horses that were being seriously considered for the stayers hurdle earlier this season.
Feb 18, 2016 -- 12:38PM, Mt006 wrote:
I backed TNO antepost earlier in the season
Feb 18, 2016 -- 12:38PM, Mt006 wrote:
I backed TNO antepost earlier in the season
^ Grrr!
What I was trying to say is that there's every chance STD will try and get TNO beat as Nicholls will probably make him ride Old Guard like he did at Christmas!
What I was trying to say is that there's every chance STD will try and get TNO beat as Nicholls will probably make him ride Old Guard like he did at Christmas!
Be interesting to see how Top Notch goes if it comes up good to soft or better as he's only ever raced on it once. A similar thing can be said for Identity Thief.
I'm starting to like Hargam myself, I wasn't particularly struck on him until Kempton but he got very close to The New One that day and is another who could improve plenty. I thought his performance on Boxing Day was a step up from the International run.
Another one who has started to improve in his recent runs is Sempre Medici, his last two have been in heavy Irish ground but if you take Hargam seriously you have to respect Sempre Medici too.
I can see a shock being sprung this year, although having said that it's a no bet race for me at the moment even with NRNB, as I think we all want to see how well My Tent Or Yours does on the weekend. If he looks to have retained even 90% of his ability he will be a serious player and would probably be vying for favouritism with Annie Power. Conditions are also now pivotal as so many of these horses look closely matched.
Wait for the day as you'll get a fair price.
I'm starting to like Hargam myself, I wasn't particularly struck on him until Kempton but he got very close to The New One that day and is another who could improve plenty. I thought his performance on Boxing Day was a step up from the International run.
Another one who has started to improve in his recent runs is Sempre Medici, his last two have been in heavy Irish ground but if you take Hargam seriously you have to respect Sempre Medici too.
I can see a shock being sprung this year, although having said that it's a no bet race for me at the moment even with NRNB, as I think we all want to see how well My Tent Or Yours does on the weekend. If he looks to have retained even 90% of his ability he will be a serious player and would probably be vying for favouritism with Annie Power. Conditions are also now pivotal as so many of these horses look closely matched.
Wait for the day as you'll get a fair price.
I am absolutely stumped by this race now. Everything is either the right price or a bad price. Value in Hargam 25/1, Sempre Medici 33/1 maybe Peace & Co 20/1
Everyone is looking for something to latch onto, I think that the tent will provide this on Saturday, he's a "sexy" horse when on his game and can see an impressive performance and momentum gathering behind him on the back of it.
MTOY is not running at Wincanton due to the testing conditions.
Doubt we'll see MTOY line up at all, history tells us they never come back quite as good either.
The value has to be Top Notch in my eyes. Less than a length defeat by Identity Thief only 7 days after a hard race against Iriving - IF is 6/1 and TN is 25/1 - no brainer.
I backed Hargam ages ago (about 9 months ago - it was me who had him added to the market back in April 15), and I've been trying to lay the bet off at 40's for ages, and with Faugheen out, it might give me a chance to get my stake back. If anyone wants 40's on him, you can buy my bet.
Hargam hasn't quite progressed as much as I'd like him too. I know he hasn't had his ground this year, and it was a decent run in the Christmas Hurdle, but he still has 4 lengths to make up with Top Notch in the Triumph, and not many Champion Hurdle winners have form figures of 36-433.
Also backed Peace and Co, and thought I had no chance of getting rid of that bet either. Backed at 14's and can lay off at 22 on here, but I'll wait a bit and hope his price contracts a bit more, but either way, I'll be getting rid of that one too.
Of the short ones in the market, I'd probably choose Nichols Canyon. Improved at a fast rate last year, and I think he would have comfortably beaten Arctic Fire last time out, but they decided to take on Faugheen for the race win, whereas Arctic Fire mopped up second place, when he never even got in the race to begin with.
I'd certainly have Nichols Canyon shorter than Arctic Fire in the betting anyway.
Already backed MTOY (want to keep) and Hargam and Peace & Co (want to get rid), so if I manage to lay them off, I'll go in on Top Notch NRNB, but not backing 4, so I'll have to wait a bit first.
I backed Hargam ages ago (about 9 months ago - it was me who had him added to the market back in April 15), and I've been trying to lay the bet off at 40's for ages, and with Faugheen out, it might give me a chance to get my stake back. If anyone wants 40's on him, you can buy my bet.
Hargam hasn't quite progressed as much as I'd like him too. I know he hasn't had his ground this year, and it was a decent run in the Christmas Hurdle, but he still has 4 lengths to make up with Top Notch in the Triumph, and not many Champion Hurdle winners have form figures of 36-433.
Also backed Peace and Co, and thought I had no chance of getting rid of that bet either. Backed at 14's and can lay off at 22 on here, but I'll wait a bit and hope his price contracts a bit more, but either way, I'll be getting rid of that one too.
Of the short ones in the market, I'd probably choose Nichols Canyon. Improved at a fast rate last year, and I think he would have comfortably beaten Arctic Fire last time out, but they decided to take on Faugheen for the race win, whereas Arctic Fire mopped up second place, when he never even got in the race to begin with.
I'd certainly have Nichols Canyon shorter than Arctic Fire in the betting anyway.
Already backed MTOY (want to keep) and Hargam and Peace & Co (want to get rid), so if I manage to lay them off, I'll go in on Top Notch NRNB, but not backing 4, so I'll have to wait a bit first.
arctic fire is the one hard to make out.last run v cumbersome . but in my opinion with a more positive ride in last years ch hurd(2nd btn 1 1/2 l)he would have btn faugheen.hes a spring horse.likes the hill and if the ground is good to soft(usually is) he must go close...i like tno but its hard see him actually winning it...ntd is giving v positive vibes tho...peace and co looks a head case.i think nicolls wants further.mtoy? will it run? hardly the horse it was..?annie might run but will she have the tactical speed or be good enough? so im leaning to artic fire at mo..
Yeah Kavvie, you can make a case for and against a lot of them now, as there is no standout.
My worry with Arctic Fire is I've alway thought Nicholls looked more of a stayer than AF ever has, but they've tried him over 2.5m three time since his second in the Champion and once over 3m.
Just reading between the lines, I think that means they think he is not good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, but that might be me reading too much into it.
If my book was wiped clean and could start afresh, I'd back Top Notch at 25's, but I'd be most worried about Nichols Canyon at the prices.
My worry with Arctic Fire is I've alway thought Nicholls looked more of a stayer than AF ever has, but they've tried him over 2.5m three time since his second in the Champion and once over 3m.
Just reading between the lines, I think that means they think he is not good enough to win a Champion Hurdle, but that might be me reading too much into it.
If my book was wiped clean and could start afresh, I'd back Top Notch at 25's, but I'd be most worried about Nichols Canyon at the prices.
I think Arctic Fire is massively under-rated and that he is the likeliest winner now. The one at a price that I like is Camping Ground - the weight-carrying performance at Sandown last spring (when five) was an exceptional effort. Not sure that he has the basic speed for a Champion but the ability is definitely there and he's completely unexposed.
Yeah, I don't think Arctic Fire necessarily get the credit he deserves (would have hacked up in the Aintree Hurdle), but if there is no Annie, he is likely to go off fav, and based on this year's runs I think he might be a bit of a false favourite, although I completely get he is better on better ground, and was a good second last year.
He only beat Monksland first time out because Monksland clouted the last, then he has 20lbs in hand when he won the Hattons Grace, and I'll forgive him his attempt at 3m.
Don't want to sound like I'm knocking him, but I think there is very little between him, Nichols, Identity Thief (and therefore Top Notch), so I'd choose the ones at the bigger prices.
Could be a year, where something completely out the blue wins though - Punjabi, Rock on Ruby etc.
He only beat Monksland first time out because Monksland clouted the last, then he has 20lbs in hand when he won the Hattons Grace, and I'll forgive him his attempt at 3m.
Don't want to sound like I'm knocking him, but I think there is very little between him, Nichols, Identity Thief (and therefore Top Notch), so I'd choose the ones at the bigger prices.
Could be a year, where something completely out the blue wins though - Punjabi, Rock on Ruby etc.
Am I being unfair in thinking Arctic Fire is another Theatreworld. He's only actually ever won 2 Novice hurdles at 2m?
Theatreworld ran 2nd 3 years running in the Churdle. Never looked like winning but went past the horses who tried. I get the Top Notch idea and to me he looks the best of last years Triumph runners but that Triumph now looks like it was an awful year which in turn makes me doubt Identity Thief.
Wide Wide open.
Wide Wide open.
I certainly get why people question Arctic Fire given his wins-to-runs ratio. I may be completely wrong but I have a feeling he has just been genuinely unlucky to have bumped into so many horses that might one day be described as all-time greats. Fair to say that if he can't win this year's race he's unlikely to ever win one.
WELLCHIEF
I was at kelso yesterday and daryl jacob said peace and go op had worked well and he's working well again
and has a great chance in a wide open champ hurdle .
I was at kelso yesterday and daryl jacob said peace and go op had worked well and he's working well again
and has a great chance in a wide open champ hurdle .
Cheers mate. It'll be interesting to see if he chooses Peace and Co or Top Notch.
I reckon he'd choose P&C, but I know which one I'd choose.
I reckon he'd choose P&C, but I know which one I'd choose.
Great to see Top Notch back with a chance,backed him before start of season.Had thought I would probably not even get a run till recently. Now I really think he is a big player, and I am quiet excited to be honest.
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