Cheltenham Festival
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It looks to all after Faugheens devastating win in the Irish Champion Hurdle that it’s simply a penalty kick. But as Hurricane Fly showed when being beaten at odds on in 2012 by Rock on Ruby and Overturn horses aren’t machines and they can run below form. So given the general price of 2/5 about Faugheen we need to nit pick. Firstly he does clout a few hurdles and though it hasn’t stopped him yet, it may stop him one of these days. Next is his first two runs of this season don’t make him a 2/5 shot. He was beaten by Nichols Canyon fto and then was an impressive 7l winner over The New One and Hargam. The huge price crash came on the back of his last race where it could be easy to take a view his main two rivals were not at their best, Nichols Canyon had a tough race at Christmas while Arctic Fire ran shockingly over 3 miles. We add to that I don’t believe either horse is a proper 2 miler, I think both are better suited to further. Faugheen makes them look slow. So while there may be reasons to not fully rate Faugheens latest win as good as it is I don’t doubt he’ll confirm placings with those two horses at Cheltenham.
So who do we take Faugheen on with? I think Identity Thief is improving but just feel he is going to be seen at his best when he goes over fences and I think he’ll be better over further. So I think he will be vulnerable on the better ground and quicker track on the Cheltenham Old Course. The New One is well past his best and his chances of winning a Champion Hurdle are in the past. I feel last seasons Juveniles have been underrated, Top Notch went down when coming of only a 1 week break to Identity Thief while Hargam gave a decent running against Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle. I think Peace & Co is quite a bit better than both of those and he is open to improvement.
We all know he ran like a lunatic on his first run of the season and there was no chance he was getting home. He didn’t settle on his first run last season either but by the time of his 3rd run in the Triumph he was his most settled. So he might be one who needs the buzz and freshness out of him. But what draws me to him for this is I don’t think any of the rivals to Faugheen are clearly better than him. While for many others already discussed the end to end fast pace Faugheen will set over 2 miles on good to soft around Old Course at Cheltenham won’t be playing to their strengths. I think it will be the complete ideal conditions for Peace & Co. He hurdles like Hurricane Fly & Binocular so quick into them and so quick away. With Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief there to take Faugheen on for the lead we will see some serious pace on here. That will certainly suit Peace & Co and he’s the only horse I can see who has potential to possibly give Faugheen a race and I think being priced up as the 4th fav to chase Faugheen home is some good value as is the general 14/1 available for him outright.
Peace & Co – 1pt e/w 14/1
Peace & Co without Faugheen – 1pt e/w 6/1
@cvbyrne
http://jumpsadviser.com/champion-hurdle-preview/
So who do we take Faugheen on with? I think Identity Thief is improving but just feel he is going to be seen at his best when he goes over fences and I think he’ll be better over further. So I think he will be vulnerable on the better ground and quicker track on the Cheltenham Old Course. The New One is well past his best and his chances of winning a Champion Hurdle are in the past. I feel last seasons Juveniles have been underrated, Top Notch went down when coming of only a 1 week break to Identity Thief while Hargam gave a decent running against Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle. I think Peace & Co is quite a bit better than both of those and he is open to improvement.
We all know he ran like a lunatic on his first run of the season and there was no chance he was getting home. He didn’t settle on his first run last season either but by the time of his 3rd run in the Triumph he was his most settled. So he might be one who needs the buzz and freshness out of him. But what draws me to him for this is I don’t think any of the rivals to Faugheen are clearly better than him. While for many others already discussed the end to end fast pace Faugheen will set over 2 miles on good to soft around Old Course at Cheltenham won’t be playing to their strengths. I think it will be the complete ideal conditions for Peace & Co. He hurdles like Hurricane Fly & Binocular so quick into them and so quick away. With Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief there to take Faugheen on for the lead we will see some serious pace on here. That will certainly suit Peace & Co and he’s the only horse I can see who has potential to possibly give Faugheen a race and I think being priced up as the 4th fav to chase Faugheen home is some good value as is the general 14/1 available for him outright.
Peace & Co – 1pt e/w 14/1
Peace & Co without Faugheen – 1pt e/w 6/1
@cvbyrne
http://jumpsadviser.com/champion-hurdle-preview/
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AF was considered for Melbourne Cup last year after the CH and NC won few listed races just over 2 years ago. They couldn't be more suited to 2 miles, they're both flat types with good bursting speed at the end just as Istabraq. Comparing HF with Faugheen couldn't be more strange, HF thrived on slowly run races and was always caught in quality strongly run races. In his younger years he would've been the Theatreworld of Faugheen(in Ireland) and in a measure he was last year in the CH.
And for the rest of your post a balance is needed and the best is to quote Simon Rowlands who was in the same anti-Faugheen camp after he got beat on his reappearance: A TRIP to Mumbai for the Asian Racing Conference means I missed a chunk of action at a crucial stage of the jumps season and was unable to file a time-analysis column last week. Hence this extended edition of Time Will Tell, which covers the notable events of the last two weekends of January. It is possible to follow events from afar in these days of instant communication, of course, and delegates at the conference chatted about Faugheen, Douvan and Un De Sceaux as well as discussing, more formally, the likes of handicapping, illegal betting and the future of racing in mainland China. Reports from Ireland and Britain provided remarkably little insight into certain aspects of those and other performances. What were they like on the clock? How reliable is the form likely to prove? Those questions are still valid some time after the event, and this column will attempt to answer them. SENSATIONAL FAUGHEEN Although spoilt for choice, the first stop simply has to be Leopardstown on Sunday January 24th. Faugheen’s 15-length defeat of Arctic Fire in the BHP Insurances Champion Hurdle, with Nichols Canyon – the only horse to have beaten Faugheen previously – a further 13 lengths back in third, looks sensational on paper and is every bit as sensational in terms of time. Faugheen set out to make it a good test and was more than 30 lengths ahead of where the leader in the opening maiden hurdle had been by halfway. By the finish, he was around 50 lengths to the good and had run the much more talented rivals who actually opposed him into the ground. That maiden hurdle was neither strongly run nor especially strong form but there was also a half-decent bumper over the same distance later on the card and Faugheen’s time trounced that, too. Faugheen’s timefigure comes out at an exceptional 177 - the best by a hurdler by some way in recent times. Arctic Fire, who had made something of a race of it with Faugheen in the 2015 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, might actually have run one of his better races here but was simply blown away. It is most unlikely that Faugheen will be beaten at Cheltenham in this sort of form (yes – I am regretting laying him for the Champion after that Punchestown defeat!), and perhaps the only glimmer of hope for his rivals is that racing tends not to be quite that simple. Whatever, the evidence is that Faugheen is potentially one of the all-time great hurdlers, and you don’t need to have backed him to be excited by that! |
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2nd season juveniles are stinking the place out
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Truly shocking.
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Utterly useless from him. I now have completely lost all belief in him. He's not even near good enough to place in a Champion Hurdle.
Talk about stupid timing for a preview post  |
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50/1 on here for the Champion now. I'd say that's on the short side!
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Little bit harsh on old guard and to notch in my view IS.
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Champion Hurdle now about as interesting as the mares hurdle
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Old Guard is a massive improver, i backed him all last season
 Top Notch ran well until they decided he was a stayer. |
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TN could always give F a race from the front, P&C evidence showed he can't. Hendo couldn't have been more wrong when assessing his own horses, who as juveniles have different improving rates and TN seems to have surpassed his Triumph conqueror by some way this season.
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What's the smallest field CH we've ever had?
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Insurance's first victory in 1932, only had 2 rivals and started 4/5 favourite. Then Blaris on the CH festival inaugural in 1927, started 11/10 fav in a 4 runner field. We'll have at least 9: F AF NC IT MTOY, TNO, Camping G, War Sound, P&C, OG, ...)
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I still think PAC is a quality horse but I've lost all confidence in the trainer. As already mentioned TN was doing well til they put him in a stayers race
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PAC didn't seem interested today, wouldn't back him against any opposition until he shows otherwise tbh
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Hard lines, CV - good to see you though, hope all well?
On the plus side they still seem interested in running him and he's always had that mercurial, potentially brilliant, Binocular-type air about him. You might still be on a runner? Increasingly looking like a penalty kick for the fav though. Fwiw I thought Sign Of A Victory (don't laugh) ran an eye-catching race in the Christmas Hurdle until the ground kicked in and I'm fiddling away with him at any tempting prices in various markets that don't mean we have to beat Faugheen to be paid..... |
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I wouldn't completely give up hope on Peace & Co, lets remember he is only a 5 year old and it's very rare a horse of that age will win a Champion Hurdle, particularly when you have something like Faugheen at the zenith of his racing life standing in the way. I'm happy to write him off for the rest of this season but I do think he will show he is a much better horse than what he has put up in his past two runs. Surely Henderson must use this season as one to educate P&C.
I think it was Nevison earlier on RUK who said this was a terrible race for a horse like him to run in, he stated the Betfair Hurdle next weekend would have been the perfect race for him, a big field and a super quick pace. I couldn't have agreed more. He may have been top dog at the weights in the Betfair but winning it or protecting some kind of mark isn't the aim, the aim is to teach him to settle down early on and give him the best possible chance of doing so. The way Henderson is training him clearly isn't working and this isn't the first horse he's had issues with. Recently you only have to look at MTOY, Simonsig and even Sprinter Sacre to a lesser extent to see he struggles to get buzzy horses to settle. Whether ground is another issue for him I have no idea and I wouldn't use that as an excuse for him. However it would be nice to see him race on good ground as he's only ever ran on soft ground before. |
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The problem with P AND C isn't ability rated and even today he settled much better, I wouldn't be surprised if he has some sort of hidden problem, when he came under proper pressure today see how his head came up, he was hating something pretty bad by the looks of it.
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His trainer
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Exactly Stevo
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Anyone heard any news on mtoy,if fit and back to his best might place at 25s
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going for a racecourse gallop before the Kingwell. 16/1 without fav looks the bet instead of the 25s in main market as the 2nd place is all up for grabs, but then again maybe not a great bet considering the long layoff and Hendos record with these.
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I probably bet at odds-on less than five times a season, but can't help but thinking this race is a foregone conclusion. 2-5 looks perfectly fair to me - 40% return for a few minutes 'work' in a race in which Faugheen has stacks in hand of all of his rivals, and with him utterly proven at track, trip and under Festival conditions.
Sometimes there really is no mileage in trying to find a clever bet to take on a good thing with. If odds-on pokes really aren't your bag, I'd sit this one our personally. |
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same here tom a race I have ignored due to looking like a penalty kick for the fav ...............I cant see no juice trying to find one to beat it or in the without market .
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More juice than 2-5,there is only 3 or 4 other horses good enough to place
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Agree, waste of time looking to get Faugheen beat. He's answered every question you could think of asking him, and answered them with total authority. The only niggle in his past formbook was his jumping, but even this season he's an improved jumper. He may still be clumsy at one or two, but who isn't? I've only ever seen one horse immaculate at every flight and he ran in royal blue for Mr Mullins.
I've already made my thoughts known on what I think of the standard of this Champion Hurdle in behind Faugheen, but we are witnessing a remarkable horse and this season is the best he will ever be, so enjoy him. Don't see no harm trying to find something in the W/O market though if you think there's something in there at a price, but the without market is the only way to play unless you're doing a forecast or tricast. |
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well realistically you are playing for 2 places ..
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I was all over faugheen last year if you look at last year's threads and not everyone on here was,but you might aswell look at the without market,faugheen will win but at 2-5 I'm not rich enough to be backing a horse at that price,artic fire,the new one,Nichols canyon and mtoy are the only others that can fill them places,and I'm not sure nichols canyon will even run.
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It wouldn't bother me putting Faugheen in the odd double or treble at 2/5 to increase your winnings a bit, but I couldn't go in big in a single.
The Annie Power incident should live long in the memory, in that even when one is so much better than the rest, they can still come down, and Faugheen has clouted a fair few, so I wouldn't be going in massive on a single bet, but each to their own. |
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I wouldn't be going in massive either, but even 100 quid will return 40 quid profit that will pay for your drinks on the day.
Betting in the without market is realistically the only way to go as betting E/W in this is bad option. Arctic Fire, probably the best place option is a best-priced 8-1, so for a 1pt EW bet your return is 3 pts, should be make the frame and not beat Faugheen. I'd rather back Faugheen at 2-5 than (effectively) Arctic Fire at 1-2 to be second or third... |
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last years juveniles don't look
good atm. You could throw a blanket over the 1st 3 in the Triumph,they've all been stuffed so far this season,aswell. |
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I wouldn't be going in massive either, but even 100 quid will return 40 quid profit that will pay for your drinks on the day.
I need to go on a diet like you  |
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A horse I quite like is All Yours. He ran ok at Cheltenham last year but he ideally wants a flat track and good ground.
In a race that could cut up really badly and if last years juveniles that have raced haven;t looked great, perhaps this can sneak into a place at 66/1. Has been kept under wraps all season and Aintree is probably the target but interesting that Nicholls sees fit to enter him in thee Champion. A bit to find on ratings but would be no surpise he if had improved 12lb since last year and that is enough to get him in the shake up here. Small e/w bet at 66/1. Picture I took of him at Aintree last year  |
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Actually thee 50/1 without thee machine looks better.
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Scrub that, he answered my question on his Q&A tonight and looks like County Hurdle (ground permitting)
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Scrub that, he answered my question on his Q&A tonight and looks like County Hurdle (ground permitting)
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Post wind op and at 33/1 and 14/1 w/o Faugheen I would think Peace & Co is worth a poke at those prices.
Unfortunately I've already invested at shorter. But we know all too well how much improvement wind ops can be. Not to mention he'll strip fitter and will improve for better ground. I remember Punjabi falling and coming well beaten in the Kingwell on his two starts prior to winning the Champion Hurdle. Not a total lost cause |
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Really? I personally think the wind operation is pure desperation, a lobotomy would be more in order. GL to anyone on P&C think you will need it.
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latest defectors
War Sound, Aristo Du Plessis, Mad Jack Mytton, Parlour Games, All Yours. |
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Faugheen Out
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Without doubt, this will be my last year anteposting. I can not describe the pummeling my book has had in the last two weeks.
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