Cheltenham Festival
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Now a best priced 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after a nice debut over hurdles today.
This horse was brought to my attention not that long ago after finding out that JP McManus had splashed the cash to buy the horse from Coolmore. He was instantly put in the Triumph Hurdle market at a general 33/1.
Wasn't tempted by a bet on him today due to the fact it was heavy ground and his only 3 runs on the flat were on Good, Good and Good to Firm.
Possibly the most significant juvenile hurdle so far took place yesterday where Rashaan and Footpad disappointed. The winner, Apple's Jade could be useful but I was very impressed with the way Ivanovich Gorbatov travelled and put the race to bed today.
O'Brien, a relatively rare visitor to Leopardstown at this time of year, said of the JP McManus-owned winner: "Really you should be talking to Joseph (O'Brien) as he has done all the work with this horse.
"He's always been a natural jumper. He handled the ground, but you would imagine that he will be a horse that will appreciate much better ground."
This horse was brought to my attention not that long ago after finding out that JP McManus had splashed the cash to buy the horse from Coolmore. He was instantly put in the Triumph Hurdle market at a general 33/1.
Wasn't tempted by a bet on him today due to the fact it was heavy ground and his only 3 runs on the flat were on Good, Good and Good to Firm.
Possibly the most significant juvenile hurdle so far took place yesterday where Rashaan and Footpad disappointed. The winner, Apple's Jade could be useful but I was very impressed with the way Ivanovich Gorbatov travelled and put the race to bed today.
O'Brien, a relatively rare visitor to Leopardstown at this time of year, said of the JP McManus-owned winner: "Really you should be talking to Joseph (O'Brien) as he has done all the work with this horse.
"He's always been a natural jumper. He handled the ground, but you would imagine that he will be a horse that will appreciate much better ground."
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Thought there was a nice horse for the Triumph who won at Kempton today.
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He was impressive and Ruby really fancied their odds on shot that he beat, in his PP column. Was giving weight away to her too. On what we've seen so far he's rightly triumph fav, though plenty more still to be seen for that you'd think.
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Not big on antepost bets but I'm going to keep backing this fella till March form starting to take a nice shape to it with the well beaten 4th winning nicely enough earlier today! Cut again into 4's most places now and can see him going off really short on the day! Touch of class about him and couldn't have looked much better on debut than he did. Let's hope he turns up and wins like our Connor did
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But montjeus don't come up the hill
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The fourth won an absolute egg and spoon race today. Even though there have been winners form his race, I personally don't think the form looks up to much. Of course he could do no more than win, but this horse looks as bad a price as any in the ante post lists to my eyes.
4/1 for a Triumph hurdle after one win, two months out?! Most of the likely types probably haven't even ran yet. |
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They better get a move on then.
He looks a goodun to me, king has a couple of nice ones as well.i Like Who dares wins,was impressed with him. |
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I've backed Gibralfaro. Thought he was really impressive on debut and still about five time the price of the fav
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I agree he looks a good horse btw. But the Triumph has always been one of the toughest races in an AP sense and 4/1 at this stage is horrific.
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Correct ccm, absolute insanity even backing a horse for it at this stage at short odds,
I know it's said most years but Zarkandar wasn't seen until a few weeks before he won his triumph, I'd be happy enough to take a bet on the winner of this years triumph yet to be seen on a race track. What odds will I get? |
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It's a myth that the Triumph winner is not seen until after Christmas - Check the last 10 race stats. It may have happened in consecutive years with Soldatino and Zarkandar debuting in The Adonis before winning the Triumph, but it certainly is not the norm. Nicholls has tried it every year since Zarkandar but has failed every time to replicate it so I would not use that as a reason not to back Ivanovich Gorbatov.
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Another thing in his favour is that the Mullins team thought the one he beat was really good
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I wouldn't use it as a reason not to back IG, but I would use it as a factor to decide whether 4/1 is value. In all of the other races, you have a decent idea who your fancied horse will be running against imo. In the Triumph, you can't be totally sure.
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It's all about opinions and the mullins camp did think quite nicely of the 2nd let's dance I think it was called and even though the race the gigginstown horse won today wasn't great it's still nice to see the ones that he has gubbed come out and win. Think that's the 4th and 9th from the race won now! I have backed him at 5/1 and only time will tell if it's a good idea or not. Let's face it the price is irrelevant if it gets beat! But I have taken the view it will go off a fair bit shorter than already is even if it doesn't run the simple connections of the horse could make it go off 2/1
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Of the big money juvenile purchases yet to run, the only one that springs to mind is Zubayr of Paul Nicholls. Cost an absolute fortune so could be decent. However, that is just one other potential challenger that could take top rank so I'd think that if you believe Ivanovich is the best of the already raced horses, then you need to back him now. If Nicholls does try to run Zubayr late in The Adonis, that will be after Ivanovich has his next run so you will have lost the price. In my opinion it is worth taking the price now.
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That was my thinking jackiemoon look at Min yesterday never beat much but the bookies don't need you to beat much to slash slash lol if ivanovich gorbatov runs again soon and wins even on the eye never mind the clock (that backed his win up as a very useful performance) they will cut him again to least 3/1 or even shorter!
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I've heard positive reports about one of NJH's called Khezerebad.
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He trained last years 1-2-3 so there could be some substance to that rumour. None of his juveniles have been that impressive this year so maybe he has held back his best one. I actually think King has a strong hand this year and had a good record in this race a few years back. I'd actually be looking to Kings second string in the Fred Winter as he has a couple with the same owners that could be rerouted.
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Big money purchases yet to run
Riven light a son of ravens pass trained by willie mullins and a very decent flat performer in france €200,000 Asangy €225,000 barry connell twice a winner on the flat in france a son of gentlewave |
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And they could just as easily be kept for a novice campaign next year.....
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Asangy 33s Sids,only quote with
the 2 horses. |
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They could. But this is my point about this race. A lot of guesswork involved to be taking 4/1 two months out, when you can't be sure who you are running against.
Good luck though, it's what antepost betting is about at the end of the day! |
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I'm merely trying to balance up proceedings. The 2 expensive, unraced horses mentioned below could indeed spoil the party but I don't think that is a risk. I'm sure both trainers would have run their respective horses already if they were serious about the Triumph. Additional to that neither sire of the horses has had any notable NH progeny to date. For me I'd take the risk as being very minimal that either will be the Triumph winner.
My main point is the price of Ivanovich being decent if you do indeed fancy him. It's been stated he will run again before Cheltenham in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown. If he does win this race his price will contract. Once the bullish comments from the O'Brien camp start up then who knows how low his price could go in comparison to now. |
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Its highly likely we have seen the winner , so if you think he's the best you have seen than he seems a reasonable price.
If you don't think he's the best you have seen then you can look at the one you like and get a good price. 16 next best!! If Pegasus DOES come out next few weeks,than take it on the chin. That's my take on it....FWIW!! |
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Just FYI Jackie
The reason zubayr and asangy and poss others haven't ran yet is because they were gelded fairly recently |
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Exactly buddelia!
Scooby that is a very good point and often the reason some are left until their novice campaign before seeing the track. |
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Jackie. I totally understand where you are coming from, and you may well be right. I just cant get my head round some of the prices this year. Antepost just seems worse than ever. Has there ever been a Triumph Hurdle fav as short as 4/1 at this stage? Maybe P&C was the only other?
Its the same with the Supreme. When you think vautour started 7/2 on the day and Douvan 2/1 on the day and Min is significantly shorter having achieved no more already, its becoming less and less attractive. Especially with all the specials there will undoubtedly be each day of the Festival. If a few of the other market principals come out and win well, you'd like to think the fav's price will hold up. Cant see him being much shorter than 3/1 on the day myself. |
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You are 100% right that ante post pricing has gone mad this year. Form is no longer the main factor in a horses price and the weighting that connections have on the price increases every year. However, this is unfortunately something that punters will have to accept as I do not see it changing in the short term as dominant streaks continue in certain races.
Ivanovich is probably close to being too short if you factor in some 'on the day' specials. But if no other unraced horse materialises and Ivanovich hacks up in the Sping Juvenile, he could be at the same price level as Min. Yes it is bonkers but that is the way of the ante post markets these days. |
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The O'Briens also get media coverage and this will shorten the price if they come out and make positive statements. You may also see some Flat punters jumping on the bandwagon as they follow the trainer on the level. Just more factors creating a lower price than he should be, which to me means now is the time to back him.
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Exactly what I said Jackie about connections alone could help crash this one's price in! It also depends on your own thoughts on prices antepost!? I don't do it much but have this year and I have also taken into account possible carrots being dangled by bookies! As the 1st one for a start is bound to be from paddy's on Min if he wins they will give you your money back as free bet and so on. I won't back ivanovich if he gets any lower than 3's and I have enough on for me right now and have him in a few doubles with others! Nichols canyon and Cole harden are the others I have backed so far again I have enough on for now as least with nichols I will get the money back if he is a no show on the day as paddy's now non runner money back on the 4 champion races!
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I understand that some think that AP prices are getting "too low", but, if they are that low, then surely the best option is to lay the horse?? .. And if people are not prepared to do that, that must presumably mean that they think the horse is going to win? ... In which case, the market has the odds at the correct level..
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I dont see it like that myself Harvester. At this stage, IG is the likeliest winner of the race, so for that reason I wont be laying him. I just dont want to back him at 4/1, because for me, there are lots of ifs and buts with the race as a whole. I think you can think a horse might win, but decide to look elsewhere for better value.
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Could be worse lads,imagine the price if he was owned by Ricci and trained by Mullins!!
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That is kinda my thinking on the champion hurdle catchme faugheen is probably better than nichols canyon but for me the bet has to be nichols canyon eway all day right now 4/6 and 13/2 respectively and it's 1-0 canyon at the moment! Even if faugheen turns the form around in the Irish champion I still won't change my mind. The triumph is obviously different as I don't think any of them have come up against each other! So like you say you think he looks the most likely right now to win the race but 4/1 is to short for you. For me he is still backable.
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Black balled.
I'm not disputing you backing him at 4/1 you make your own decision. But can I ask you why your backing him now at 4/1 when he was 14s after his race? |
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I'm not backing him again for now I'm already on for a little @ 8/1 and then went in again at 5's in singles and have in in a few doubles as I'm taking the opinion that he will go off no bigger than 5/2 on the day hence why I would be willing to back down to around 3's but I have more than enough on him for now in singles and doubles so have no real need to go in again! But I could go in again just before he is due to run again.
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Fair enough, id just go steady. Because I really can't see him being shorter than he is and I really don't get why he is that price, I backed at 14s to a small stake after his race, he has potential but from what Iv seen I could in no way make a shortlist of who I think will win the triumph with any certainty because atm there are very little form lines between the winners.
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Fair enough, id just go steady. Because I really can't see him being shorter than he is and I really don't get why he is that price, I backed at 14s to a small stake after his race, he has potential but from what Iv seen I could in no way make a shortlist of who I think will win the triumph with any certainty because atm there are very little form lines between the winners.
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I agree Scooby. And I still think that there are plenty of reasons to lay IG if u don't think he is good value.. I also think that the bookies consider the Irish contingent (not just RR/wpm) to be generally v strong and the British weak hence the prices.
For me that creates AP opportunities to lay some short favs, or build some mega multiples. On that, how big do people do their multiples? 3 horses/races or 10?? |
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I'd lay him myself but iv got enough funds tied up already in nrnb. Taking nothing away from those who backed him if he wins. Just my opinion
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