Cheltenham Festival
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Now a best priced 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after a nice debut over hurdles today.
This horse was brought to my attention not that long ago after finding out that JP McManus had splashed the cash to buy the horse from Coolmore. He was instantly put in the Triumph Hurdle market at a general 33/1.
Wasn't tempted by a bet on him today due to the fact it was heavy ground and his only 3 runs on the flat were on Good, Good and Good to Firm.
Possibly the most significant juvenile hurdle so far took place yesterday where Rashaan and Footpad disappointed. The winner, Apple's Jade could be useful but I was very impressed with the way Ivanovich Gorbatov travelled and put the race to bed today.
O'Brien, a relatively rare visitor to Leopardstown at this time of year, said of the JP McManus-owned winner: "Really you should be talking to Joseph (O'Brien) as he has done all the work with this horse.
"He's always been a natural jumper. He handled the ground, but you would imagine that he will be a horse that will appreciate much better ground."
This horse was brought to my attention not that long ago after finding out that JP McManus had splashed the cash to buy the horse from Coolmore. He was instantly put in the Triumph Hurdle market at a general 33/1.
Wasn't tempted by a bet on him today due to the fact it was heavy ground and his only 3 runs on the flat were on Good, Good and Good to Firm.
Possibly the most significant juvenile hurdle so far took place yesterday where Rashaan and Footpad disappointed. The winner, Apple's Jade could be useful but I was very impressed with the way Ivanovich Gorbatov travelled and put the race to bed today.
O'Brien, a relatively rare visitor to Leopardstown at this time of year, said of the JP McManus-owned winner: "Really you should be talking to Joseph (O'Brien) as he has done all the work with this horse.
"He's always been a natural jumper. He handled the ground, but you would imagine that he will be a horse that will appreciate much better ground."
Show More
Thought there was a nice horse for the Triumph who won at Kempton today.
He was impressive and Ruby really fancied their odds on shot that he beat, in his PP column. Was giving weight away to her too. On what we've seen so far he's rightly triumph fav, though plenty more still to be seen for that you'd think.
Not big on antepost bets but I'm going to keep backing this fella till March form starting to take a nice shape to it with the well beaten 4th winning nicely enough earlier today! Cut again into 4's most places now and can see him going off really short on the day! Touch of class about him and couldn't have looked much better on debut than he did. Let's hope he turns up and wins like our Connor did
The fourth won an absolute egg and spoon race today. Even though there have been winners form his race, I personally don't think the form looks up to much. Of course he could do no more than win, but this horse looks as bad a price as any in the ante post lists to my eyes.
4/1 for a Triumph hurdle after one win, two months out?! Most of the likely types probably haven't even ran yet.
4/1 for a Triumph hurdle after one win, two months out?! Most of the likely types probably haven't even ran yet.
They better get a move on then.
He looks a goodun to me, king has a couple of nice ones as well.i Like Who dares wins,was impressed with him.
He looks a goodun to me, king has a couple of nice ones as well.i Like Who dares wins,was impressed with him.
I've backed Gibralfaro. Thought he was really impressive on debut and still about five time the price of the fav
I agree he looks a good horse btw. But the Triumph has always been one of the toughest races in an AP sense and 4/1 at this stage is horrific.
Correct ccm, absolute insanity even backing a horse for it at this stage at short odds,
I know it's said most years but Zarkandar wasn't seen until a few weeks before he won his triumph,
I'd be happy enough to take a bet on the winner of this years triumph yet to be seen on a race track. What odds will I get?
I know it's said most years but Zarkandar wasn't seen until a few weeks before he won his triumph,
I'd be happy enough to take a bet on the winner of this years triumph yet to be seen on a race track. What odds will I get?
It's a myth that the Triumph winner is not seen until after Christmas - Check the last 10 race stats. It may have happened in consecutive years with Soldatino and Zarkandar debuting in The Adonis before winning the Triumph, but it certainly is not the norm. Nicholls has tried it every year since Zarkandar but has failed every time to replicate it so I would not use that as a reason not to back Ivanovich Gorbatov.
Another thing in his favour is that the Mullins team thought the one he beat was really good
I wouldn't use it as a reason not to back IG, but I would use it as a factor to decide whether 4/1 is value. In all of the other races, you have a decent idea who your fancied horse will be running against imo. In the Triumph, you can't be totally sure.
It's all about opinions and the mullins camp did think quite nicely of the 2nd let's dance I think it was called and even though the race the gigginstown horse won today wasn't great it's still nice to see the ones that he has gubbed come out and win. Think that's the 4th and 9th from the race won now! I have backed him at 5/1 and only time will tell if it's a good idea or not. Let's face it the price is irrelevant if it gets beat! But I have taken the view it will go off a fair bit shorter than already is even if it doesn't run the simple connections of the horse could make it go off 2/1
Of the big money juvenile purchases yet to run, the only one that springs to mind is Zubayr of Paul Nicholls. Cost an absolute fortune so could be decent. However, that is just one other potential challenger that could take top rank so I'd think that if you believe Ivanovich is the best of the already raced horses, then you need to back him now. If Nicholls does try to run Zubayr late in The Adonis, that will be after Ivanovich has his next run so you will have lost the price. In my opinion it is worth taking the price now.
That was my thinking jackiemoon look at Min yesterday never beat much but the bookies don't need you to beat much to slash slash lol if ivanovich gorbatov runs again soon and wins even on the eye never mind the clock (that backed his win up as a very useful performance) they will cut him again to least 3/1 or even shorter!
I've heard positive reports about one of NJH's called Khezerebad.
He trained last years 1-2-3 so there could be some substance to that rumour. None of his juveniles have been that impressive this year so maybe he has held back his best one. I actually think King has a strong hand this year and had a good record in this race a few years back. I'd actually be looking to Kings second string in the Fred Winter as he has a couple with the same owners that could be rerouted.
Big money purchases yet to run
Riven light a son of ravens pass trained by willie mullins and a very decent flat performer in france €200,000
Asangy €225,000 barry connell twice a winner on the flat in france a son of gentlewave
Riven light a son of ravens pass trained by willie mullins and a very decent flat performer in france €200,000
Asangy €225,000 barry connell twice a winner on the flat in france a son of gentlewave
And they could just as easily be kept for a novice campaign next year.....
They could. But this is my point about this race. A lot of guesswork involved to be taking 4/1 two months out, when you can't be sure who you are running against.
Good luck though, it's what antepost betting is about at the end of the day!
Good luck though, it's what antepost betting is about at the end of the day!
I'm merely trying to balance up proceedings. The 2 expensive, unraced horses mentioned below could indeed spoil the party but I don't think that is a risk. I'm sure both trainers would have run their respective horses already if they were serious about the Triumph. Additional to that neither sire of the horses has had any notable NH progeny to date. For me I'd take the risk as being very minimal that either will be the Triumph winner.
My main point is the price of Ivanovich being decent if you do indeed fancy him. It's been stated he will run again before Cheltenham in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown. If he does win this race his price will contract. Once the bullish comments from the O'Brien camp start up then who knows how low his price could go in comparison to now.
My main point is the price of Ivanovich being decent if you do indeed fancy him. It's been stated he will run again before Cheltenham in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown. If he does win this race his price will contract. Once the bullish comments from the O'Brien camp start up then who knows how low his price could go in comparison to now.
Its highly likely we have seen the winner , so if you think he's the best you have seen than he seems a reasonable price.
If you don't think he's the best you have seen then you can look at the one you like and get a good price.
16 next best!!
If Pegasus DOES come out next few weeks,than take it on the chin.
That's my take on it....FWIW!!
If you don't think he's the best you have seen then you can look at the one you like and get a good price.
16 next best!!
If Pegasus DOES come out next few weeks,than take it on the chin.
That's my take on it....FWIW!!
Just FYI Jackie
The reason zubayr and asangy and poss others haven't ran yet is because they were gelded fairly recently
The reason zubayr and asangy and poss others haven't ran yet is because they were gelded fairly recently
Exactly buddelia!
Scooby that is a very good point and often the reason some are left until their novice campaign before seeing the track.
Scooby that is a very good point and often the reason some are left until their novice campaign before seeing the track.
Jackie. I totally understand where you are coming from, and you may well be right. I just cant get my head round some of the prices this year. Antepost just seems worse than ever. Has there ever been a Triumph Hurdle fav as short as 4/1 at this stage? Maybe P&C was the only other?
Its the same with the Supreme. When you think vautour started 7/2 on the day and Douvan 2/1 on the day and Min is significantly shorter having achieved no more already, its becoming less and less attractive.
Especially with all the specials there will undoubtedly be each day of the Festival. If a few of the other market principals come out and win well, you'd like to think the fav's price will hold up. Cant see him being much shorter than 3/1 on the day myself.
Its the same with the Supreme. When you think vautour started 7/2 on the day and Douvan 2/1 on the day and Min is significantly shorter having achieved no more already, its becoming less and less attractive.
Especially with all the specials there will undoubtedly be each day of the Festival. If a few of the other market principals come out and win well, you'd like to think the fav's price will hold up. Cant see him being much shorter than 3/1 on the day myself.
You are 100% right that ante post pricing has gone mad this year. Form is no longer the main factor in a horses price and the weighting that connections have on the price increases every year. However, this is unfortunately something that punters will have to accept as I do not see it changing in the short term as dominant streaks continue in certain races.
Ivanovich is probably close to being too short if you factor in some 'on the day' specials. But if no other unraced horse materialises and Ivanovich hacks up in the Sping Juvenile, he could be at the same price level as Min. Yes it is bonkers but that is the way of the ante post markets these days.
Ivanovich is probably close to being too short if you factor in some 'on the day' specials. But if no other unraced horse materialises and Ivanovich hacks up in the Sping Juvenile, he could be at the same price level as Min. Yes it is bonkers but that is the way of the ante post markets these days.
The O'Briens also get media coverage and this will shorten the price if they come out and make positive statements. You may also see some Flat punters jumping on the bandwagon as they follow the trainer on the level. Just more factors creating a lower price than he should be, which to me means now is the time to back him.
Exactly what I said Jackie about connections alone could help crash this one's price in! It also depends on your own thoughts on prices antepost!? I don't do it much but have this year and I have also taken into account possible carrots being dangled by bookies! As the 1st one for a start is bound to be from paddy's on Min if he wins they will give you your money back as free bet and so on. I won't back ivanovich if he gets any lower than 3's and I have enough on for me right now and have him in a few doubles with others! Nichols canyon and Cole harden are the others I have backed so far again I have enough on for now as least with nichols I will get the money back if he is a no show on the day as paddy's now non runner money back on the 4 champion races!
I understand that some think that AP prices are getting "too low", but, if they are that low, then surely the best option is to lay the horse?? .. And if people are not prepared to do that, that must presumably mean that they think the horse is going to win? ... In which case, the market has the odds at the correct level..
I dont see it like that myself Harvester. At this stage, IG is the likeliest winner of the race, so for that reason I wont be laying him. I just dont want to back him at 4/1, because for me, there are lots of ifs and buts with the race as a whole. I think you can think a horse might win, but decide to look elsewhere for better value.
Could be worse lads,imagine the price if he was owned by Ricci and trained by Mullins!!
That is kinda my thinking on the champion hurdle catchme faugheen is probably better than nichols canyon but for me the bet has to be nichols canyon eway all day right now 4/6 and 13/2 respectively and it's 1-0 canyon at the moment! Even if faugheen turns the form around in the Irish champion I still won't change my mind. The triumph is obviously different as I don't think any of them have come up against each other! So like you say you think he looks the most likely right now to win the race but 4/1 is to short for you. For me he is still backable.
Black balled.
I'm not disputing you backing him at 4/1 you make your own decision. But can I ask you why your backing him now at 4/1 when he was 14s after his race?
I'm not disputing you backing him at 4/1 you make your own decision. But can I ask you why your backing him now at 4/1 when he was 14s after his race?
I'm not backing him again for now I'm already on for a little @ 8/1 and then went in again at 5's in singles and have in in a few doubles as I'm taking the opinion that he will go off no bigger than 5/2 on the day hence why I would be willing to back down to around 3's but I have more than enough on him for now in singles and doubles so have no real need to go in again! But I could go in again just before he is due to run again.
Fair enough, id just go steady. Because I really can't see him being shorter than he is and I really don't get why he is that price, I backed at 14s to a small stake after his race, he has potential but from what Iv seen I could in no way make a shortlist of who I think will win the triumph with any certainty because atm there are very little form lines between the winners.
Fair enough, id just go steady. Because I really can't see him being shorter than he is and I really don't get why he is that price, I backed at 14s to a small stake after his race, he has potential but from what Iv seen I could in no way make a shortlist of who I think will win the triumph with any certainty because atm there are very little form lines between the winners.
I agree Scooby. And I still think that there are plenty of reasons to lay IG if u don't think he is good value.. I also think that the bookies consider the Irish contingent (not just RR/wpm) to be generally v strong and the British weak hence the prices.
For me that creates AP opportunities to lay some short favs, or build some mega multiples. On that, how big do people do their multiples? 3 horses/races or 10??
For me that creates AP opportunities to lay some short favs, or build some mega multiples. On that, how big do people do their multiples? 3 horses/races or 10??
I'd lay him myself but iv got enough funds tied up already in nrnb. Taking nothing away from those who backed him if he wins. Just my opinion
Don't think there's many races, if any at all, that still has plenty to learn about this time of year.
Felt like there was a formline every other week last year with the english market leaders. Don't think we'll see the same but plenty of races to come in the next few weeks right up to to late feb
Felt like there was a formline every other week last year with the english market leaders. Don't think we'll see the same but plenty of races to come in the next few weeks right up to to late feb
Oh I agree, I think I'm certain I can narrow the graded races down to max 4 potential winners in each. But the triumph despite backing 4. I couldn't even narrow down to 14 let alone 4. I'll be the first to admit if iv got the winner iv got lucky.
Iv deffinately learned that the juvenile form, is very hard to read and such as the raw nature and greenness (if that's a word) of any juvenile they are open to masses of improvement between runs. I won't be backing early antepost on the triumph next year despite the huge prices being very appealing.
Iv deffinately learned that the juvenile form, is very hard to read and such as the raw nature and greenness (if that's a word) of any juvenile they are open to masses of improvement between runs. I won't be backing early antepost on the triumph next year despite the huge prices being very appealing.
Does anyone else think that there's no justification for the difference in odds of IG and WDW..??? starting to think that WDW offers tremendous value although i accept that the triumph is a risky market.!
I'd love to know who King thinks is his best...
For Ivan Gorbatov fans, his win continues to work out well - Lagostovegas, 3rd behind Ivanovich Gorbatov and Let's Dance, hosed up in the opening maiden hurdle at Naas, with Newberry New (6th behind IG) filling the 2nd spot. Tocororo and Jazz Ranger have also won since.
Unless Zubayr or Khezerabad for Nicholls/Henderson pull up trees on debut, or Mullins has something else up his sleeve, I think IG's place in the market as 3/1f is about right really, particularly when you consider the logical improvement to come from having had a first run, encountering better ground, and the fact that in 3 flat runs he achieved a mark of 105. He's looking more and more standout to me, I think it's hard to really get excited about anything below him in the market - he certainly has the star quality anyway and to me would be the only 4yo so far who could potentially make up into a lively Champion Hurdle contender next year.
Unless Zubayr or Khezerabad for Nicholls/Henderson pull up trees on debut, or Mullins has something else up his sleeve, I think IG's place in the market as 3/1f is about right really, particularly when you consider the logical improvement to come from having had a first run, encountering better ground, and the fact that in 3 flat runs he achieved a mark of 105. He's looking more and more standout to me, I think it's hard to really get excited about anything below him in the market - he certainly has the star quality anyway and to me would be the only 4yo so far who could potentially make up into a lively Champion Hurdle contender next year.
Poor trail yesterday by the look and sound of it! Apparently anyone in the stable wouldn't have backed the winner yesterday at 100's never mind 25's so unless they all hated the ground that much it doesn't look like any of yesterday bunch have any chance in March!
I see pp have early betting on the spring hurdle
O Brien hoss a 4-7 shot
On heavy ground i have another hoss in the race
O Brien hoss a 4-7 shot
On heavy ground i have another hoss in the race
on a related note - anyone know anything about kasakh noir,s triumph plans. ???
Whats the craic with Lets Dance getting backed in for the Juvenile next week, surely wouldnt be reversing with IG ?
mrgloves there is a thread on the horse racing forum about the supposed well being of ivanovitch .........
ig confirmed as a runner sunday by frank berry in tomorrows racing post - no mention of any doubt or problem??? that said if it was heavy i wouldnt be surprised if they didnt put a gun to its head
There is no drift in his price if any rumours where doing the rounds so can't see anything in that! And even more so if the racing manager is saying it's all go!!???
Lads any possibilty that Ivan is rerouted to the supreme a la Binocular in 2008, would get 8lbs off the field, with Yanworth seemingly destined for the neptune, JP seems to have sweet fa for the supreme, given his love of the race it wouldn't surprise me in the slighest especially the way he's being talked up. Couldn't find a price on here
Don't think it's got an entry for the supreme. And Joseph said about 2 weeks ago that the confirmed target was the triumph so don't see happening
Imo it would be madness to take MIN on, nothing will get near this beast, its got speed, travels, jumps like a bunny and stays on bad ground, god knows what this will do on good ground come race day. This will go off odds on. Id be very diss if it didnt run on the Thursday.
Rich Ricci said on Saturday that they believe Let's Dance is a G1 horse and will contest them at the festivals this season. If she wins 1 then great and if not she will still be a novice next season. I agree IG beat her well first time up, but experience can count for a lot. She might never be as good as him but at still 16/1 which is about 6 times his price, I think she is worth an EW bet after RR confirmed she will be running all being well.
Alan King was still very keen on Who Dares Wins on yesterdays Sunday Forum. Said they raced too early and he was too keen. Still not beaten far and was giving weight to the first 3. I had a little on at 33/1 (now 25/1) yesterday.
I've still not totally given up on Kasakh Noir. He started with an easy win befor Fixe Le Kap beat him easily but was in receipt of 10lb. FLK won very easy again last week, so KN may still have a sniff, but that maybe pocket talking.
Anyway that's my 3 against the field all backed EW
Alan King was still very keen on Who Dares Wins on yesterdays Sunday Forum. Said they raced too early and he was too keen. Still not beaten far and was giving weight to the first 3. I had a little on at 33/1 (now 25/1) yesterday.
I've still not totally given up on Kasakh Noir. He started with an easy win befor Fixe Le Kap beat him easily but was in receipt of 10lb. FLK won very easy again last week, so KN may still have a sniff, but that maybe pocket talking.
Anyway that's my 3 against the field all backed EW
I know they really fancied let's dance at Xmas, but was beaten fairly easily on the day! I'm a big fan of ivanovich and looking at his form he should improve for the better ground! But it could all change come the day as they might not all like the track etc. Will be interesting to see who turns up this weekend at leopardstown?!
Got a few lads saying the apple jade race was ok, i said to them that and the IG race vrs Lets dance was on the same track in the same ground obviouslty and poss on more chewed up ground, the IG race was 8 seconds faster, they went a good belt imo and IG carried 11 stone well, travelled, jumped and finished pulling away. IG will do for me @ 3/1 for now lads.
Thanks Shockster thats just what I was looking for re WDW , also bit of 33s on Sportsbook first thing today , reminds me of potential biggest winner and most unlucky loser in Triumph , Barizan , quite a few similarities and am sure a better surface will suit .
wouldnt bother me if he got beat at w/e (unless he runs like theres a problem) - wont be his conditions at all and will provide opportunity to top up hopefully.
I think IG can do it on any surface by the looks of it, Apples Jade and Jer's Girl were out on their feet carrying 10-05 and race run 8 secs slower and IG (11-00 stone) was still going forward pulling away like a good thing, he will defo be better on decent ground with his flat speed, slick jumping and staying power will prevail !
he will defo be better on decent ground with his flat speed, slick jumping and staying power will prevail !
He's by Montjeu out of a US bred flat mare. The layers going to have fun with that.
He's by Montjeu out of a US bred flat mare. The layers going to have fun with that.
Ive never worried about breeding, i just go by what my eyes tell me and i think IG is a good thing, there has been many freaks come and go, hes shown pace in his last race on the flat pulling himself to the front and stayed well on on gd/fm ground over 1m7f. Hes then travelled and jumped like an experienced hurdler on heavy ground over 2m beating a very well touted mare out of the mullins camp whom went off 4/7 to beat him also getting a smidge of weight. It wont be long now until we find out as long as he is aimed at the Triumph like Aidan has mentioned. Hes got Speed, Jumps like Bugs Bunny, Travels and Stays, isnt that the ideal CV for a Triumph Winner, what more do use want ?
Saturday will tell you all you need to know. If he beats the Mullins horse again he will be a good thing. They think Lets Dance is one of the best juveniles they've had and he will be much fitter for the rematch. If IG beats him again he will be banker material.
I backed IG straight after his win at I thought a very generous 16/1 with VC, very happy with it as the form has been franked a few times. I do think the rematch will be interesting as Lets Dance should improve as it was only her second run ever and was she fully tuned up? That said IG looked a complete professional and he has limitless potential.
I would imagine she was tuned up as she was there so called cert over Xmas and that includes faugheen! Not sure if that's true or not but you would also expect ivanovich to come on for his 1st run over hurdles! Will be interesting for sure if they both show up this weekend?!
ig was 25s with a company jumping the second last against LD when it was obvious this was a v good horse - the thing is i am pretty certain they look at those kind of things when deciding whether to ban you - so its like when they put kids in a room with all sort of sweets for 5 minutes and beforehand tell them if they resist the urge to help themselves they will get a reward - take the sweets or keep the account aaaagh
Not sure what to make of that race there! Not good for us gorbatov backers but really bad mistake down the back nearly came down!! Not lost hope yet as the race has messed the form up big time with so much of them turning it around!
The delights of juvenile form. Was scratching my head when foot pad was beaten tamely behind jers girl. Was expecting a huge run.
He didnt jump that great, not given up hope, better ground at Cheltenham will be a help.
IG needs another run to qualify for the Fred Winter
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539