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4 Miler (National Hunt Chase)

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By:
duffy
When: 28 Jan 16 01:28
I don't know if I'd say no novice because Cause of Causes is the exception to the rule and ruling him out would have been plain daft. The rule that a horse had to be placed over at least 3 miles is pretty thin to say the least though, it should be a minimum number of runs rather than placing.
By:
Fabulous
When: 28 Jan 16 01:34
Yeah, was just saying guys...........definitely staying out of this one Grin
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 28 Jan 16 08:12
Adding my tuppence worth into this, but am a bit confused

cos, well, aren't novices not allowed to run in the National due to the new race entry criteria? Or is it just merely a minimum number of starts over fences of at least grade 3 level with at least one winConfused

I might be wrong but it is something along those lines
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 28 Jan 16 10:20
Looked it up because interested. I believe the below is still the criteria :

The Review Group proposed that the minimum age for a horse to be eligible to race in the Grand National be raised to seven years. While trainers supported the status quo of six-year old horses racing, the Review Group did not find evidence of six-year old horses greatly contributing to the success of the race.
• The Review Group recommended that future participants in the Grand National must have placed no lower than fourth in a recognised Steeplechase event of three miles or further at some point in their career. Moreover, the Group felt that the suitability of a horse should be assessed in the light of expanded criteria, including Steeplechase experience, staying ability, previous injuries or declining performance.
• It is also recommended that the current Rider eligibility criterion in the Grand National should be expanded to require at least 10 of the minimum 15 previous Chase/Hurdle career wins to have been in Steeplechases.
By:
Tory
When: 01 Feb 16 23:15
Has anyone heard anything on Rule The World? Was a load of money for it recently and now there isn't a penny wanting to back it!
By:
delsie777
When: 06 Feb 16 23:37
Quite surprised Black Hercules is fav for this. I would think Ruby might be pushing for him to go to the RSA after Pont Alexandre's run today, He's looking short of a decent mount in that race, barring perhaps a Mullins trained Gigginstown second string.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 07 Feb 16 02:15
duffy - re the National, I Like the 3m rule.  Speed is a dangerous thing in that race and we were constantly treated to the sight of 2 and 2.5 milers batting off and setting the tone of the race.  The 3m rule has calmed it down a bit. 

Those calling for a novice restriction are barking up the wrong tree. So in that case a Young Hustler-type novice having his 15th start would be deemed unsafe but a horse who made a winning chase debut the season before and was having his second start in the National as a 'fully-fledged' chaser is ok?  Hardly.

There needs to be a minimum chase restriction of at least six starts and it will come imo.
By:
duffy
When: 07 Feb 16 02:54
I think they should try Pont Alexandre in this race, he isn't going to stand a chance over shorter as he will be running against horses that ultimately will get him off the bridal and he finds nothing off of it.

See if he stays and he may very well just outclass them without having to fight too hard to do it.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 07 Feb 16 11:34
Agree re PA. Took although the 80-90 on here after the Flogas.

No doubt I'm on a non.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 07 Feb 16 11:37
"although"?

"all the"!

Crikey.
By:
shockster
When: 07 Feb 16 11:46
Just taken 20/1 Native River Corals for this. Seems an over reaction drifting him out so far. Decent trial to me and crying out for further.
By:
wellchief
When: 07 Feb 16 22:54
For the stats people out there, a couple of strong ones for this (from the excellent Gaultstats):

17 from last 18 had finished first or second in a chase over at least 3 miles.  That's a big negative for Outlander backers, although he did finish second in a point to point back in the day.

Of the last 13 runnings, 11 had finished either 1st or 2nd in a 3 mile hurdle.  Another negative for Outlander, and Roi de Francs too, but he did win 2 hurdle races over 2m 6f.

27 of past 30, 1st or 2nd in either of past two runs.  That most of the market leaders hit this one.

28 from last 31 all out at least 4 times that season and last 16 had all run at least 3 times over fences.  That's a pretty big negative for Black Hercules.

The last four winners rated 146, 150, 146 and 151 respectively.  Lots of the market leaders hit this, showing the better quality.  Black Hercules, Roi de Francs, Rule the World, Pont, Native River, Outlander.  Interestingly, Black Hercules is the lowest rated of those at the minute.
By:
wellchief
When: 14 Feb 16 16:09
Just glad to see Black Hercules get up after that.  Jumped and travelled beautifully.
By:
shockster
When: 14 Feb 16 16:51
Whichever way you look at it, that's not an ideal prep for BH for Cheltenham.
By:
Quevega06
When: 14 Feb 16 23:06
Think that could seal The Herc heading for the four miler after that, good knows which one of the gigginstown horses go they've about four atom that could go ..
By:
shockster
When: 23 Feb 16 14:22
Think I've done my dough on Native River 12/1 with bookies and double that on here before the suspension.
By:
roobuck
When: 25 Feb 16 16:50
Panic over shockster LoveCool
By:
shockster
When: 25 Feb 16 18:35
Yes Roo. Very good. Come on Native River. Excited
By:
harry callaghan
When: 25 Feb 16 19:53
looks like he is likely to get derek o'connor shockster you'll be pleased to know
By:
roobuck
When: 25 Feb 16 20:09
That's good news. Also backed him for same reasons as shockster, posted on NH Big Race thread though.
By:
shockster
When: 25 Feb 16 20:11
Not arguing with Derek O'Connor at all. Win or lose Roo and I have a fair bet.
By:
sageform
When: 25 Feb 16 20:23
Not a race I would bet on until the 24 hour declarations and all runners and more important, riders, are known. It used to be a good race when it was only open to maidens at the beginning of the season. Pointers won a few times but my biggest win was Fuzzy Logic. Unbeaten after 2 wins over the course in 3 mile novice chases he started at 33/1 and paid 70 on the Tote. He was that price because he was owned, trained and ridden by a permit trainer and his son. These days it is another RSA chase for the horses just below top class.
By:
roobuck
When: 03 Mar 16 21:24
See O'Connor has jumped ship. Poor show from an amateur imo
By:
harry callaghan
When: 03 Mar 16 21:56
would be great if native river gets up close home to beat rocco for the heartbreak for o'connor
By:
TimmyRiggins
When: 03 Mar 16 22:02

Mar 3, 2016 -- 9:56PM, harry callaghan wrote:


would be great if native river gets up close home to beat rocco for the heartbreak for o'connor


Definitely.

By:
impossible123
When: 03 Mar 16 22:12
Withdrawing Black Hercules to allow Minella Rocco a smoother path, conspiracy? No worries, RDF to the rescue.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 03 Mar 16 22:15
Why would the Graham Wylie owned, Willie Mullins trained Black Hercules be withdrawn to allow the JP McManus owned, Jonjo O'Neill trained Minella Rocco a smoother path Confused
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Mar 16 22:35
Just a flippant thought similar to WPM's rerouting of BH to the JLT, a wholly absurd decision to say the least for a stayer.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 03 Mar 16 22:41
Don't get it at all. Shaneshill JLT and Black Hercules RSA looks so obvious if you were Wylie.
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Mar 16 22:53
BH has only a small chance of winning the RSA with both NMH and MOT in; if the recent sound bites about MOT proved untrue and MOT remained in the RSA then BH chance of winning the JLT would be enhanced despite the trip being a wee bit too short - this is merely a flippant thought just like some of WPM.
By:
delsie777
When: 03 Mar 16 23:00
God knows how he came to be the most successful trainer of recent years - couldn't place a horse to save his life. He should give up the game Wink
By:
RBoyd86
When: 03 Mar 16 23:50
lol just lucky! You hear what DRussel said reg story about WM bumper winner briar hill i believe ? Crazy That he got on the boat by mistake or something so they just decided to run him anyway lol??
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Mar 16 00:12
RBoyd86

Are you being mischievous about Vautour not showing same kind of spark at home?
By:
RBoyd86
When: 04 Mar 16 00:42
no, not at all lol

Just putting what i read from RR. Love the horse his performance in the KG for 90 % of race was jaw dropping, very rare a performance leaves you gobsmacked. I just cant see him staying, i can understand they have to run him and see. Would be an awesome sight in the champion. And i would re mortgage the house for the ryanair.

Just think were in the position a lot of trainers are (where bit diff now have commenwealth cup0 with 3yo sprinters trying to stretch them out to be milers. He deserves a chance as it is the GC. Just hope they have a rethink if he doesnt stay as i hate it when they try make horses run in races due to the prestige of the race, instead of running it over its right trip. Think we all agree he's a horse with a serious cruising speed, thats what he's about now stamina. Stamina horses win gold cups, synchronised, imperial commander, bobs worth, denman etc I no KS won at chelt but it was never his track/trip he was just that good and the times he won they where races he just had a significant abillity advantage over the others. Vauotur is the most talented of these but not enough to make up for his stamina deficiencies. Sorry rant over cant help myself CHELTENHAM FEVER has taken over!
By:
RBoyd86
When: 04 Mar 16 00:42
not  stamina
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Mar 16 00:54
I do not think Vautour will beat Djakadam either let alone the two Dons, why? The two extra furlongs and the punishing hill will take its toll on Vautour ie Vautour will be tanking 100yds from the line, big time; the Ryanair, is a different proposition - Vautour will run them ragged hence a good strategy for inclusion in multiples if nrnb.
By:
RBoyd86
When: 04 Mar 16 00:58
couldn't agree further!
By:
illinois_riki
When: 04 Mar 16 09:11
Was at a Preview last night and Barry O'Connell gave a big shout out for Ballychorus in this - 16s/20s
By:
ACStafford
When: 04 Mar 16 10:28
I really like the look of Ballychorus actually. Any idea who rides?
By:
ACStafford
When: 04 Mar 16 10:29
I really like the look of Ballychorus actually. Any idea who rides?
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