Cheltenham Festival
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I have been following MAPUTO through his summer jumping runs, and he has been improving and improving.
If anything Flat-bred is going to contest the finish on the 2016 Supreme, then there isn't going to be a better candidate than this lad.
6 wins from 7 on the flat with Mark Johnston through the summer of 2013 (only defeat being on ground to fast, and trip too short at Royal Ascot) culminating in Group 3 win. Meydan Group 2 placing in spring 2014 and rated 113 on flat before his break (one would imagine through injury), gelding and given time before John Ferguson took him on.
He has won 4 from 4 culminating in a routing of 136 and 131 rated hurdlers, only being shook up after the last, after cruising through the race.
He is likely to go from OR 138 and RPR 137 to around 145 now, and run at the Paddy Power Cheltenham Meeting.
That is already good enough to place in the last 2 Supreme Novice Hurdles, which were won by exceptional WM hurdlers, and also high enough to win the Grade 2 2M Supreme Novice Hurdle Trials at the Paddy Power meeting.
I cannot believe 2 bookies still have him at 33/1 for the Supreme, I think they may be blind to the fact the John Ferguson-Aidan Coleman are a team on the rise, as on their current trajectory they are going to start pumping home Grade 1 winners in England sooner rather than later.
I have had 40/1 twice since his last run, will no doubt take the 33s before that goes, too. The other quotes are between 25s and 16s. If he was a WM horse he would be 10/1, with Paul Nicholls/Nicky Henderson maybe 14/1, so if you take the view that the bookies aren't seeing John Ferguson as a coming powerhouse stable (particularly over hurdles) and you think he is, then this is an opportunity to have a bet, win or each way at longer odds than should be available.
If anything Flat-bred is going to contest the finish on the 2016 Supreme, then there isn't going to be a better candidate than this lad.
6 wins from 7 on the flat with Mark Johnston through the summer of 2013 (only defeat being on ground to fast, and trip too short at Royal Ascot) culminating in Group 3 win. Meydan Group 2 placing in spring 2014 and rated 113 on flat before his break (one would imagine through injury), gelding and given time before John Ferguson took him on.
He has won 4 from 4 culminating in a routing of 136 and 131 rated hurdlers, only being shook up after the last, after cruising through the race.
He is likely to go from OR 138 and RPR 137 to around 145 now, and run at the Paddy Power Cheltenham Meeting.
That is already good enough to place in the last 2 Supreme Novice Hurdles, which were won by exceptional WM hurdlers, and also high enough to win the Grade 2 2M Supreme Novice Hurdle Trials at the Paddy Power meeting.
I cannot believe 2 bookies still have him at 33/1 for the Supreme, I think they may be blind to the fact the John Ferguson-Aidan Coleman are a team on the rise, as on their current trajectory they are going to start pumping home Grade 1 winners in England sooner rather than later.
I have had 40/1 twice since his last run, will no doubt take the 33s before that goes, too. The other quotes are between 25s and 16s. If he was a WM horse he would be 10/1, with Paul Nicholls/Nicky Henderson maybe 14/1, so if you take the view that the bookies aren't seeing John Ferguson as a coming powerhouse stable (particularly over hurdles) and you think he is, then this is an opportunity to have a bet, win or each way at longer odds than should be available.
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I should wait and see how he deals with Prestbury Park - very different to Kempton, Stratford etc.. The other potential fly in the ointment is Ferguson's Festival record. He has so many ex flat horses that win small races on the bridle but struggle against better class opposition over the undulations at Cheltenham. Not even AP could rustle up a winner for him. Best of luck though - at least you're following your own instincts rather than following in the masses.
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Thanks Delsie, at 40s its worth a punt, and at33s too.
I agree hat Ferguson has had a few not stay up the Prestbury hill, Parlour Games a notable exception. This horse looked class in 2013, over 10F, and hardy to stand the racing he had. I backed him a time or too to victory including a romp at Newmarkets July Meeting. Happy to have this fellah on my side for the Cheltenham hill, over 2 miles, my short-term hope is that he is taking a tug as he approaches the last, next month, and cruises in. |
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Good post, deepingfox.
I agree re Maputo; to me, he's been the most impressive novice of the season thus far. He travels easily, jumps well and (crucially for a John Ferguson flat-bred horse) seems to find for pressure. He's versatile as to how the race is run; he showed a smart turn of foot off a slow pace to beat a good subsequent winner on his penultimate start and he won well today in a race run at a good clip. He's also head and shoulders better than anything else on my sectionals; particularly his Stratford run. In Swansea Mile today, he beat a concrete mid 130's performer and did it very cosily. Even on a literal, conservative reading of that piece of form today, you would have to say he ran to the mid 140's. Clearly Cheltenham's a different beast to winning on the flat tracks, and you wouldn't say it was to his advantage, but this horses' ability to travel and jump at pace puts him in a good position for the Supreme Novices which is always something of a cavalry charge. I can't remember the last time we had a 145+ novice this early in the season. Indeed, prior to Cheltenham last year, I would only have rated 2 horses better than that mark on known form, so you would have to say 33/1 is a great value punt, particularly as they haven't gotten to the bottom of him yet. |
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yep,totally agree,33 taken and surprised that's still around to be honest.
I too think it a matter of time before Ferguson starts getting big winners,and I intend to be there when it happens. Good thing is it goes against the majority it seems,so prices are reflected in that. |
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A great thread and I wish Deepingblue & Buddeliea lots of luck with their bets. Nice to see people not following the heard and getting stuck into this seasons talking horse instead using the visual impression the horse has made on them on the ratings to back up the selection.
I'm of the thinking that Modus is also overpriced at 20/1 and have covered him as IF ( Always a big if at this stage of the season) he comes out and wins his novice hurdle in good style he'll shorten up pretty fast given his bumper form from last season is quite strong being runner up to Moon racer at Cheltenham & a fair 3rd at Punchestown to Bellshill & Disko. I'd even say Nicholls is more likely to improve the horse than Robert Stephens as far as the NH sphere goes. Speculative I know but just throwing him out there. Best wishes fellas. Lets hope for a fantastic season. |
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Thunder, Budd, Gut,
Many thanks for your thoughts. I just hope MAPUTO turns out to be another OUR CONOR, for my punting, that was one horse that I couldn't believe was 25/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after two hurdle wins, flicking over the obstacles at a speed I haven't seen in a juvenile hurdler in the last decade. I thought it was such a good punt, but couldnt believe the price stuck around until he zipped home in higher grade races, and everyone cottoned on to him. I rate Our Conor my best festival feeling, watching in amazement as he took the Triumph Hurdle apart, and me sitting on 25/1. Come on MAPUTO, a class act on the flat, now go on to show that flat horses can feature in the Festival opener. Really looking forward to a run from him at the Paddy Power meeting, hope the bookies are as generous on track as PP and SJ are, in offerings 33's for the Supreme. |
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RPR of MAPUTO's race on Sunday, and its a huge 150 RPR.
To put this into context, when they lined up in the Supreme Novice this March LAMI SERGE had a 154 RPR DOUVAN had a 149 RPR When they lined up in the Supreme Novice in March 2014. VAUTOUR had a 150 RPR JOSSES HILL had a 150 RPR |
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Any idea what the long term plan for the horse is? Will need a break at some point?
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Fortune favours the brave but it does seem extremely early in the year to be thinking of a Supreme winner.
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maputo will be beat a furlong by the ricci choosen one
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yes chief,rather early to be thinking of a supreme winner,but not too,early to have a bet if you think a horse is a good price ,
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Very true. I'm actually looking to back Wait for Me for the Supreme and Neptune but both unmatched at the minute, so slight double standards from me!!
I was at Chepstow the other day and Ailtor looked promising who had some decent bumper form and now with Nicky Henderson. |
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Good luck with Maputo, perfectly sound reaosning even if he hasn't got the profile of most Supreme winners - I well remember his July meeting romp.
 Yorkhill is my initial tentative fancy but with Mullins having 10-20 simialr types it's impossible to back anything at this stage - not at the ubiquitous 16/1-25/1 the bookies offer on everything these days.  |
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Maputo pencilled in for Paddy Power Meeting Graded Novice hurdle, that should reveal all, regarding ability to handle course, and whether my bets down in flames, or a lovely winter warmer.
Uncle you hit the nail on the head, its more difficult to back a Mullins horse in these races. I have got good odds in recent years on backing the Mullins horses in the Festival win market instead (having backed Faugheen at 20s for the Supreme, I quickly covered with 12/1 for the Festival and enjoyed that bet much more through the winter guessing games. |
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I too was a big fan of Maputo on the flat, just wondering what the 4 relative quick runs are all about? perhaps they are quite scared of running him once the ground turns and they want to get plenty of experience into him before stopping with him and bringing him back in the spring.... gut feeling is that for a keen...ish going sort he won't get home against top class opposition at the likes of Cheltenham
I wouldn't be keen to support him for the supreme but nearer the time and if the ground isn't too bad I'd like the look of him as a fresh horse on the flat of newbury in the betfair hurdle off of 142. |
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Penglai Pavilion was tried, and won, over 21 furlongs 10 minutes ago.
Given the speed this horse possesses (could easily have been a Supreme contender too), my guess is was this was Ferguson wanting to spread out his best animals across the novices races. Suggests he's confident that Maputo is good enough to go close over 2 miles. |
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So, what price Ferguson to be leading trainer for 2015/2016 NH season ?
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Ferguson Feel Good Factor rolls on with £21K Hurdle prize for Devilment at Cheltenham, that's two impressive winners in two days up that Cheltenham hill. Made me feel better about the MAPUTO bets.
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Decided with 40/1 single on MAPUTO, earlier this week the time was right to have a Trixie including him too, as PP kept the 33/1 chalked up for the Supreme.
So a £10 Trixie MAPUTO 33/1 Supreme Nov Hurdle LONG DOG 16/1 Neptune Inv Hurdle (Grade 3 win already and keep surprising connections with improvement. IDAHO 20/1 The Epsom Derby - couldn't fail to impressed by his debut win, and bred for Epsom. Had a mad moment, after watching videos of the Racing Post Trophy entrants, and was knocked out by the size and scope of MARCEL, and the PC-H links to the race, and how he had held him back specifically for the race. So I wrapped around the above Trixie 7 x £2 bets, on those 3 with Marcel, to turn the Trixie into a Yankee (of sorts). Just got back from watching my beloved Leicester City win again, and played back Channel 4 racing. Nearly fell of the settee, watching Marcel travel like a dream and stay on well to win at 33/1 - the same price as my £2 bets. So now have £68 @ 33/1 1 on Maputo for Supreme. £68 on Long Dog @ 16/1 for the Neptune, and £68 on Idaho @ 20/1 for the Derby. Good return if any of them win, mega £1m payout if the unlikely happens and all three follow Marcel's lead, and land the selected race. This Ante Post lark, can have you up, and dreaming of early retirement one minute, and cursing your luck the next. At least for tonight, I will have sweet dreams. |
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Duffy, I reckon 4 quick runs was to sharpen him up (jumping and seasoning, after long time off) and to get the good ground. More than happy to see him run at Paddy Power meeting in graded 2m race, and then be put away for a pre-Festival prep race, avoiding any poor ground in the winter.
My big fear now, is that he is so impressive c/w the other early season types, that he may get an entry in the Greatwood and win it, and have connections thinking that if the Champion Hurdle cuts up (which it may easily do) that he should have a crack at that. So I am just hoping that the Greatwood entries his week, don't include him in it. |
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.looking forward to disko today. Backed at 25/1 for supreme and 38 down to 29.0 on here for neptune. Set to be a decent test against jetsteam jack who's highly rated by Gordon elliott.
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I think Long Dog is an Albert Bartlett horse myself. Ruby keen to step up in trip and these connections will have plenty of 2 and a half mile options
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I think Long Dog is an Albert Bartlett horse myself. Ruby keen to step up in trip and these connections will have plenty of 2 and a half mile options
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Delslie, thats my fear for alternate race for Long Dog. But I have fingers crossed that his ability to travel well, will keep him at 2m5f.
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min. currently 2nd fav for supreme, any1 know anything about it?
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Ricci, mullins & walsh. Same sire as Douvan, biggest talking horse of the year so far. Raced once in France and was 3rd i think.
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I think Ricci put him up as his most exciting hurdling prospect for this year which probably caused the price crash.
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Guillum macaire got a useful horse entered jn a novice hurdle over here.
Could there be a french challenge this year?? |
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Raced twice in France layingisthewayforward.
Feel free to go through the form. FWIW it isn't much good. http://www9.france-galop.com/fgweb/domaines/chevaux/cheval_perf.aspx |
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Ta Gut.
Tycoon Prince anywon? Some impressive bumper performances in ireland last year. Didnt come over to Cheltenham but giggy rarely gring their bumpers over. Won his 1st start over hurdles last week. Best price 25/1 with the books. |
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Tycoon Prince is certainly a beautiful looking horse - a real chaser in the making.
It's just so hard to know which Cheltenham novice race he will be aimed at - if any? He's a shorter price for the Neptune and Albert Bartlett than he is for the Supreme. I don't see the AB as being very likely but the Neptune certainly could be. If he were 16/1 for any race he might be worth a bet, but he's only 8/1. |
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The same problem about which race a horse will be aimed at applies to just about every runner (even Moon Racer for example) - even a week before hand you can have connections saying it will be one race if it stays soft or the longer race if it drys up.
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Is bonbon au miel qualified for this race.???? Because he's already won a race in France last season. Got decent form for wylie and is in the betting. But I'm of the understanding he dosent qualify.
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Is bonbon au miel qualified for this race.???? Because he's already won a race in France last season. Got decent form for wylie and is in the betting. But I'm of the understanding he dosent qualify.
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Is bonbon au miel qualified for this race.???? Because he's already won a race in France last season. Got decent form for wylie and is in the betting. But I'm of the understanding he dosent qualify.
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Is bonbon au miel qualified for this race.???? Because he's already won a race in France last season. Got decent form for wylie and is in the betting. But I'm of the understanding he dosent qualify.
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Maputo running tomorrow. Any form on soft ground ?
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Backed Yanworth eachway at 25/1 after he won at Exeter. Beat fcuk all that day and trainer keeps banging on about him staying further but then makes a contradiction talking about his pace. Price seems big given he could turn out to be very good, and BJG's ride in the race.
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Won't BJG's ride be modus for this then sint?
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