BHB Ratings - Vautour & Coneygree

coneygree should have a higher rating.

Vautour would have won the Arkle or RSA imo based on that performance.

Apache, Valseur and Ptit Zig are all serious oppostion.  Similar to Sprinter's Arkle, which had fantastic beaten horses, that JLT could be up there with it when we look back on it in a few years.

Highest this century, dont you mean this decade ?

no century i think

Both very low imo. Bordering on ludicrous for Conygree. It looks like he's left Holywell on the mark he came in on and rated through him, which means he has taken the view that the other 13 horses in the race have run 10lbs or more below their ratings. If he was mine I'd plot him up for the Hennesy next, he'd turn it into a procession.

Vautour is pretty cautious too, but I suppose he's taken the view that on quickish ground and with a couple of mistakes Irish Saint probably hasn't improved, so maybe some of the others around him had been over-rated.

Some cracking young horses to look forward to for next season, let'#s hope they all stay in one piece.

Racing post gave Coneygree 178 with the other novice Vautour on par with Road To Riches on 173, while Djakadam got 176.

does any one know where there might be an offer on conygree to win the betfair chase/king george and the gold cup

Vautour is quite easy to access as Valseur (155), Apache Stronghold (155) & Irish Saint (153) have run to pretty much exactly to ratings. So a 15L win has got to put Vautour on 170+.

Coneygree is a bit harder as who would you base your ratings on. Who has ran to their mark to access the race.
If you went off Many Clouds (165) who was beaten 24L you'd have to rate the winner 189, which is ridiculous.
So I think its fair to use Holywell (163). There is no reason to think he has ran much beyond his career best on ground that would not have suited.
So a 10L defeat of Holywell puts Coneygree on 173.

I'd have Vautour all day long in a match bet though.

Depends on the distance in a match between Coneygree and Vautour. Could the latter keep up the same gallop as Coneygree for 3.2 miles? Not sure. As far as backing Coneygree to win 3 top class chases next year with his glass legs, I would not touch that with a barge pole.

If I was given a free bet on the 2016 Gold Cup it would be on Djakadam every time. It is hard for a novice to win the GC but even harder for a 6yo so his effort was incredible to me.

Mr Bradstock hinted yesterday that the Hennesy is probably favourite first big target. He'll go for the King George but Betfair is doubtful.
6-1 for the KG is a more than fair price if he gets there, but you are gambling on his health. The only horse I could see beating him at Kempton would be Vautour, and he wouldn't be anything like as certain runner, though it is the obvious target.

I'm really looking forward to next season!

I would agree with Sage. We now know that Djak stays that extra 2 1/2 furlongs but we cant be certain on Vautour.

Top RP ratings for the staying chases were:
Coneygree   178
Djakadam    176
Uxizandre   174
Vautour     174
Road to R   173
Don Cossack 170
Holywell    169
Don Poli    166

While he won't be heading for the Gold Cup, Uxizandre's performance has perhaps crept under the radar. Breaking the course record was some performance.

"It is hard for a novice to win the GC but even harder for a 6yo so his effort was incredible to me."
Hardly any try. Prior to the 2011 Gold Cup Paul Jones wrote that since Mill House's win in 1963 they'd only been three 6yos who tried. Two were The Fellow (2nd) and Gloria Victis (fell). The other horse was Neptune Collonges who finished 8th at 50/1 in 2007. Since he wrote that there's been Long Run (1st) and Djakadam (2nd).

Fair enough Cyclops, but like 5yo's in the Champion Hurdle, 6yo's in the Gold Cup are running with a penalty in my opinion because they should really be getting an allowance. i still think that Djakadam ran the best trial for the 2016 Gold Cup but there are so many things that can go wrong with horses in 12 months. Who would have predicted 2 years ago that Sprinter Sacre, Bobsworth Simonsig and Long Run would either not run or pull up at the 2015 festival?

Just like when Master Minded won his first Ch Ch we expected him to win another five. Very few horses win two Gold Cups. In the life of a chaser from March until the following March is a long time. Henrietta was wrongly ridiculed for minding Best Mate but she should have been knighted for what she achieved with him. By the way there is nothing sacrosanct about RP or Timeform figures - if the people producing those figures were so good they would not be working (for those organisations).

Sire De Grugy 172

@Arklearkle the people working at those organizations have their own handicapping system + time analysis that they apply in the same manner for every single race. Timeform and RP only show us the ratings that horses ran to in different races but they can't predict the future like most people believe because horses aren't machines and they have off days, they have bad luck in running, make mistakes or don't have their ideal conditions(trip/ground) to produce that rating every single time they run. On top of that, some horses do actually improve or regress from one race or even season to another. They are a trustworthy guide to compare a horse generation to another or a race to another based on what figures the horses produced in those races not based on visual impression or sentiments.

Tin everything you say is probably correct but I repeat they are not sacrosanct in fact they are far far from it. Timeform were very good on rating races in the seventies when they had all the information and most others had very little.

For the love of all things Holy. Paul Nicholls please put Irish Saint away for the season. He is an absolute moral for next years Hennessy. 153 would be 10-10 with Coneygree on 171. He's been run over the wrong trip all season has Irish Saint. His sire is Saint Des Saints, same sire as Djakadam, Quito De La Roque, Quel Esprit, Lyreen Legend all out and out stayers. With a bit of cut he'll improve 10lbs for the step up in trip.

On good ground Road to Riches could have won the Gold Cup, he did very well to get so close on that ground while Djakadam has lots of improvement to come and was so unlucky that he was just racing the horse beside him when Coneygree had moved a bit further away from them on the far side of Road to Riches. It was a lack of experience there, I'd say in a years time he'll have the measure of Coneygree.

But we've Don Poli and Vautour in the mix too

can't have it that Djakadam was in any way unlucky myself,CV - Coneygree made all his own running and and you could equally argue that he did n't have another horse to race against in the closing stages whereas Djakadam had R2R - I reckon he'd have found a bit more if necessary.

I am a little concerned for all this year's principles that there seems to be a trend of horses putting in their best effort the first time they run in the race - the first four were all having their first attempt and it was a fair way back to On His Own.

It was lack of experience, tbf to the horse it was his first time at the business end of a Grade 1 race. He'd only had 4 completed chases in his life. He did race Road to Riches and I think he'll improve a lot from this run as he's a young lightly raced horse with so much ahead of him. Coneygree doesn't need a horse to race against to keep going as he makes the running. I'd love to have seen just Djakadam and Coneygree duke it out after the last with no Road to Riches. Anyway with the expect improvement from his experience this season I think Djakadam will beat the rest of this Gold Cup field next season in this race.

the winner had only completed 3 chases in his life

That is a very good point. Same amount of races as Djakadam too.

But Djakadam is two years younger, and so long as the hard race has not left a mark, he is the more likely improver, especially as Mr Mullins will know more about him next year.

I wouldn;t be surprised if Vautour attempted the Timgle Creek/King George double like Kauto did.

I think everyone has noted Djakadams run, he looks the one to take from the race.

What price would you want for Vautour to do the Tingle Creek/KG double? 12/1..worth a few quid.

No odds that i've seen btw, just speculating.

Very good comments here.

Of the 1st 3 home I would say the winner is the one least likely to have been bottomed by the race. The 2nd & 3rd had seriously hard races and were eye balls out up the hill. It was really only in the last few strides that the winner was really on empty. Will the 2nd & 3rd come back as good or better? Who knows. Their trainers have more experience than the winners and that also counts for something going forward.

And what about Holywell? If the rain hadn't come he might well have beaten them all. Coneygree might not even had run if the rain hadn't come. On better ground without the winner the pace would have been slower and Holywell could have sat and quickened up the hill and this would be a totally different conversation. If me aunt had balls and all that...but you know what I mean. Maybe even with the winner he would have won without the rain. He also wasn't emptied as much as the 2nd and 3rd and while jon joe has come back to form he had a very poor festival and this horse improves every year. With another year behind, JJ in better form, better ground he might be the one to do them all. His campaign will also be more tailored for Chelt than any of them.

I would also agree re: Irish Saint for the Hennessy. Definitely would stay.

Good point about the 2nd and 3rd horses home. They were all out to finish where they did whereas Coneygree appeared to be running within himself until before the 2nd last. Djakadam will be the most interesting for me to see how he comes out of the race. Logically being a 6yo who has been relatively lightly raced, he should improve more than the others but we wont know the long term effects on a young horse until he lines up again. The gap from 4th back to the rest should rule out any of the other horses in next years renewal. Add in a handful of top novices from this season and I'd imagine we could see a field of 8-12 select horses in next years renewal.

The stats really are against horses beaten in 1st GC outing then going on to win. Leaving kauto aside, you have to go back to see more business who was carried out after 5 fences so didn't get a tough race... U then have to back to the fellow to find a horse which lost (3 times) before winning gc. Interestingly he was campaigned during career almost entirely in France and came over only for kg and GC!

what was interesting in this years race was that it was all about the prominent racers i.e the last 3 or 4 gold cups had been won from something coming from off the pace synchronised, bobs worth,lord windermere,long run all came from off the pace on goodish ground , this year the closers never  really ,got a look in possibly due to a combination of the rain arriving and the strong pace set by the prominent racers  , time may show it was  a gruelling race and some may not be the same again ,next season will reveal more, but with this in mind  I would be looking more  at the 2nd season chasers for next seasons race .

Vautour's BHB mark of 171 is exceptionally high for a novice. Really could be a great this horse.

Has anybody heard what mark Un De Sceaux been given. He must be 169/170 himself. Quite an extraordinary Festival.

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/champions-everywhere-you-look/

https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Ratings_Update_The_2015_Cheltenham_...

So I think its fair to use Holywell (163). There is no reason to think he has ran much beyond his career best on ground that would not have suited.
So a 10L defeat of Holywell puts Coneygree on 173.

Totally agree with Brandy. 172 seems about right.

Don Poli all the way for me in next year's GC - Coneygree and/or Vautour will set it up beautifully for him to power past them up the hill.

Do you think Vautour will try to make all over 3m 2f?
I'm not so sure.

Don Poli appears a horse that keeps plenty to himself so should suit the demands of the Gold Cup.

Hopefully they all get there in rude health as it could be a classic.

Vautour looks very special to me.

Certainly does look a classic but much will depend on the going as usual, but surely Mullins will want the monkey off his back within the next 2 seasons. Good ground and Vautour and Don Poli could benefit.

A swift changing of the guard it has been.

ptit zig surt for the pp off 157

It's gonna be absolutely fascinating to see how the Gold cup picture unfolds next season.
At this stage I have to have The first 4 home in the race as the main ones next season,with the ground deciding which would be more likely to win the race out of them. Coneygree could not do that again on decent ground,but any soft around he could.
Holywell and RTR would be serious contenders on decent ground and I think Djakadam will be whatever the ground.

Then we have the novices from this year,with DP and Vautour looking the most likely threats at this stage,and possibly Apache and Valseur if they can improve for a step up,which to be honest I have serious doubts. DP will stay ok but still not convinced he wil be at the level required,but of course he could prove to be. Vautour looks classy enough but has to prove he can stay 3m 2f.

Fascinating indeed!!

Couldn't have Don Poli personally.