BHB Ratings - Vautour & Coneygree

Vautour would have won the Arkle or RSA imo based on that performance.

Apache, Valseur and Ptit Zig are all serious oppostion.  Similar to Sprinter's Arkle, which had fantastic beaten horses, that JLT could be up there with it when we look back on it in a few years.

no century i think

Racing post gave Coneygree 178 with the other novice Vautour on par with Road To Riches on 173, while Djakadam got 176.

Vautour is quite easy to access as Valseur (155), Apache Stronghold (155) & Irish Saint (153) have run to pretty much exactly to ratings. So a 15L win has got to put Vautour on 170+.

Coneygree is a bit harder as who would you base your ratings on. Who has ran to their mark to access the race.
If you went off Many Clouds (165) who was beaten 24L you'd have to rate the winner 189, which is ridiculous.
So I think its fair to use Holywell (163). There is no reason to think he has ran much beyond his career best on ground that would not have suited.
So a 10L defeat of Holywell puts Coneygree on 173.

I'd have Vautour all day long in a match bet though.

If I was given a free bet on the 2016 Gold Cup it would be on Djakadam every time. It is hard for a novice to win the GC but even harder for a 6yo so his effort was incredible to me.

I would agree with Sage. We now know that Djak stays that extra 2 1/2 furlongs but we cant be certain on Vautour.

"It is hard for a novice to win the GC but even harder for a 6yo so his effort was incredible to me."
Hardly any try. Prior to the 2011 Gold Cup Paul Jones wrote that since Mill House's win in 1963 they'd only been three 6yos who tried. Two were The Fellow (2nd) and Gloria Victis (fell). The other horse was Neptune Collonges who finished 8th at 50/1 in 2007. Since he wrote that there's been Long Run (1st) and Djakadam (2nd).

Just like when Master Minded won his first Ch Ch we expected him to win another five. Very few horses win two Gold Cups. In the life of a chaser from March until the following March is a long time. Henrietta was wrongly ridiculed for minding Best Mate but she should have been knighted for what she achieved with him. By the way there is nothing sacrosanct about RP or Timeform figures - if the people producing those figures were so good they would not be working (for those organisations).

@Arklearkle the people working at those organizations have their own handicapping system + time analysis that they apply in the same manner for every single race. Timeform and RP only show us the ratings that horses ran to in different races but they can't predict the future like most people believe because horses aren't machines and they have off days, they have bad luck in running, make mistakes or don't have their ideal conditions(trip/ground) to produce that rating every single time they run. On top of that, some horses do actually improve or regress from one race or even season to another. They are a trustworthy guide to compare a horse generation to another or a race to another based on what figures the horses produced in those races not based on visual impression or sentiments.

For the love of all things Holy. Paul Nicholls please put Irish Saint away for the season. He is an absolute moral for next years Hennessy. 153 would be 10-10 with Coneygree on 171. He's been run over the wrong trip all season has Irish Saint. His sire is Saint Des Saints, same sire as Djakadam, Quito De La Roque, Quel Esprit, Lyreen Legend all out and out stayers. With a bit of cut he'll improve 10lbs for the step up in trip.

can't have it that Djakadam was in any way unlucky myself,CV - Coneygree made all his own running and and you could equally argue that he did n't have another horse to race against in the closing stages whereas Djakadam had R2R - I reckon he'd have found a bit more if necessary.

I am a little concerned for all this year's principles that there seems to be a trend of horses putting in their best effort the first time they run in the race - the first four were all having their first attempt and it was a fair way back to On His Own.

the winner had only completed 3 chases in his life

But Djakadam is two years younger, and so long as the hard race has not left a mark, he is the more likely improver, especially as Mr Mullins will know more about him next year.

What price would you want for Vautour to do the Tingle Creek/KG double? 12/1..worth a few quid.

Very good comments here.

Of the 1st 3 home I would say the winner is the one least likely to have been bottomed by the race. The 2nd & 3rd had seriously hard races and were eye balls out up the hill. It was really only in the last few strides that the winner was really on empty. Will the 2nd & 3rd come back as good or better? Who knows. Their trainers have more experience than the winners and that also counts for something going forward.

And what about Holywell? If the rain hadn't come he might well have beaten them all. Coneygree might not even had run if the rain hadn't come. On better ground without the winner the pace would have been slower and Holywell could have sat and quickened up the hill and this would be a totally different conversation. If me aunt had balls and all that...but you know what I mean. Maybe even with the winner he would have won without the rain. He also wasn't emptied as much as the 2nd and 3rd and while jon joe has come back to form he had a very poor festival and this horse improves every year. With another year behind, JJ in better form, better ground he might be the one to do them all. His campaign will also be more tailored for Chelt than any of them.

Good point about the 2nd and 3rd horses home. They were all out to finish where they did whereas Coneygree appeared to be running within himself until before the 2nd last. Djakadam will be the most interesting for me to see how he comes out of the race. Logically being a 6yo who has been relatively lightly raced, he should improve more than the others but we wont know the long term effects on a young horse until he lines up again. The gap from 4th back to the rest should rule out any of the other horses in next years renewal. Add in a handful of top novices from this season and I'd imagine we could see a field of 8-12 select horses in next years renewal.

what was interesting in this years race was that it was all about the prominent racers i.e the last 3 or 4 gold cups had been won from something coming from off the pace synchronised, bobs worth,lord windermere,long run all came from off the pace on goodish ground , this year the closers never  really ,got a look in possibly due to a combination of the rain arriving and the strong pace set by the prominent racers  , time may show it was  a gruelling race and some may not be the same again ,next season will reveal more, but with this in mind  I would be looking more  at the 2nd season chasers for next seasons race .

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/champions-everywhere-you-look/

So I think its fair to use Holywell (163). There is no reason to think he has ran much beyond his career best on ground that would not have suited.
So a 10L defeat of Holywell puts Coneygree on 173.

Totally agree with Brandy. 172 seems about right.