Cheltenham Festival
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Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.
Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.
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I do also think that Arctic Fire may have been plotted up, in other words never put in each of the races where he has contested HF. This could be a reason why Mullins is on the record saying to not forget him! On this beast at 25s! In fact as usual on a very nice position as sitting on a 79% book win and 120% place (Faugheen is a win only bet the rest are each way) gosh i wish Cheltenham was every day haha
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@trigger Hattons Grace in 1952 at 12yo(of course more classier than Fly in terms of ability) when bidding for his 4th champion hurdle, he faced terrible competition, he came from a horrible run lto no where near the form he was in previous year and he still was sent off at 13/2(2nd favourite) while Fly is 10s now with Lads after a near his best season beating current champion 3 times(Jezki backers of course are hoping for a return to his best.. but hope against form at 9/2 or anything below 7/1 is delusional). Fly is value e/w, considering he could've won another CH with the right tactics. People forget that of course and are living with hope of TNO and Jezki placing to recover their stakes(mugs), they should either have strong win view of the race and/or find a value e/w proposition.
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I can see a lot of sentimental money for the fly on the day. If Mullins thought he had no chance he wouldn't be sending him over, he has deserved a shot and he's only a few months older than he was when beating Jezki 3 times already this campaign. His durability is not in doubt and after a lot of analysis I've decided to make an each way play on the fly for the race. There is nothing else in the race representing value unless you strongly fancy Faugheen and for me it's a huge leap of faith to back a horse at those short odds in a race which he hasn't come remotely close to competing in before in terms of quality.
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I hadn't ruled out Mullins doing a sand bagging job with Arctic Fire either cow when you watch the races at Leopardstown he has been running on at the end. However Walsh has said that AF will not win a champion hurdle. I think they will run him to get a place.
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Def. doesn't sends him for nothing, sure the ground will play in his favour if it comes proper soft, but good-soft ground is bound for first day, just like previous years.
Faugheen, if he confirms expectations, will never be bigger than evens in his career so I personally consider it a value call at anything at or above evens(50% chances of winning). |
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How is backing each way value.The Fly 10/1 20 eway say,comes 3rd the return is 70 quid,that's a mugs bet it turns into an odds on shot.
Either you have Faugheen at 3/1 or bigger,or you bet on the place market if you think he is the most likely winner,or without fav market. |
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Lay back the win bet if you think he can't win. However I'm happy enough to let the 10/1 win part of my bet roll on the fly. He has been better than Jezki all season and should not be over twice his price.
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the other thing we should all remember is that Willie Mullins is a gentleman in racing and in life in general.He is treated like a god in Ireland.he has helped many many people within racing and life.there is not one person in Ireland that would not help the man if he needed it,and not a person that would not wish him well.
most people in and out of racing would like to see his dream of winning the champion hurdle with hurricane fly come true. If fact most people would help to make his dream come true. so Ruby has a big decision,it should be interesting. |
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@timtim. Really, you think his chances are about 50/50. You could be proved right but until he shows what he is capable of against top level horses I maintain its a crazy price. However with bookies it's a psychological game as they know that the shorter a cheltenham favourite is, the more it will attract the mug money. Keep enough short priced favourites and hope for as many multiple mug bets as possible.
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the game nowadays is lead by exchanges, even on course bookies have some sort of system updating their prices almost instantly based on betfair prices, G. Banks complained about this few weeks ago.. so basically real punters when they'll lose faith in Faugheen and you'll see a drift on here you'll also see a drift with most firms, not often it happens the other way around unless there's some news they find out earlier than punters.
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