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Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.

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Replies: 89
By:
alleged22
When: 04 Mar 15 16:51
I thought mushroom season was over, but brassneck must have a stash Laugh
By:
alleged22
When: 04 Mar 15 16:53
trippin in a field of daisys Cool
By:
brassneck
When: 04 Mar 15 17:07
hi duffy,i am not advising any bet,i started to give my view that any horse in the race has a chance of winning it,but I got side tracked over Annie Power once again.
Since the day Annie Power started racing the Betfair forumites have never anything good to say about the poor horse,she is the butt of everyones jokes even though she won 11 out of 12 races.She has been called serious names,and attacked as a useless piece of (you know what)after her defeat last year.
the dum dums on timeform radio joined in and are worse with their critism of Annie .
How can it be that a horse called More of That can be one of the finest horses ever to hurdle while Annie who finished second in the race ends up been called a piece of you know what.feck sake lads the horse runs in the races she is placed in and runs as fast as she is allowed.how about leaving the poor horse alone and  blame the stable,its not fair on the horse .thank you .
By:
trigger3
When: 04 Mar 15 17:07
@firstimevisor You say that the best 8 2 mile races run in the last 2 campaigns have all included Hurricane Fly. Well the only horse of note that he beat in any of those 8 races was Jezki yet when he came up against him when it mattered at Cheltenham in the championship race he was well beaten into 4th. I'm not knocking the fly, very good horse and his longevity was remarkable but best hurdler in the last 30 years? I'd beg to differ there.
By:
alleged22
When: 04 Mar 15 17:10
do you have pictures of annie on your bedroom wall Scared
By:
brassneck
When: 04 Mar 15 17:36
no,but I can see her out my window at this very moment.Laugh
By:
a bitofinterest
When: 04 Mar 15 17:38
HORSENAPPER ALERT
By:
cacique
When: 04 Mar 15 17:46
lots said here but no-one has nailed down which outsider will win.
Artic fire mentioned alot,  Could Kitten Rock  win without McCoy on board?

He picked wrong in many races last year.....................
By:
firstimevisor
When: 04 Mar 15 18:45
Trigger, please name even one race run over the last 2 seasons that was better than the races he ran in. All grade 1s matter. They are Majors. Fair enough the CH is the most prestigious but its not the be all and end all. Kauto Star was beaten 5 times at the festival but doesnt mean he was an inferior horse to those that beat him.
By:
alleged22
When: 04 Mar 15 19:27
HORSENAPPER ALERT



HORSEFIDDLER Shocked
By:
trigger3
When: 04 Mar 15 19:34
@firstimevisor. The best hurdlers in Ireland and the UK over the last 2 seasons have been MTOY, Jezki, TNO, Faugheen, AP & UDS. The fly has only beaten Jezki out of all of these (was also beaten in the big c'ship race when it really mattered by the same horse). You could include Our Conor but he was a 5 year old who was living on potential and was likely going to get better. It's a sad reality but unfortunately now we only get to see all the top horses run against each other once a year and whilst it creates a more exciting festival it's to the detriment of the rest of the season. You can't feasibly put each of the grade ones on a par. The champion hurdle is far more prestigious than the other 'majors'' most of which are run on heavy ground around Leopardstown. If the fly had won a greater variety of races like a Xmas hurdle or an Aintree hurdle his legacy would be far stronger again. If Faugheen wins a CH I hope Mullins at least sends him to Aintree and prove his versatility but I expect he will go down the fly route again which imo is bad for those who like to see competitive racing.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 04 Mar 15 20:33
My god i've seen it all now....So The Fly needs to go to the UK more often to prove himself, maybe take on Bertimont, Purple Bay etc in the grade 1s there. TNO didnt even show up for the Christmas hurdle. Diakali beaten a whisker in Aintree and Thousand Stars nutted in it 2 years running wouldnt see what way the Fly went. So the Fly wouldnt make your top 6 the last 2 years and Jezki does but Fly beats him 5 out of 7. Who did UDS beat to warrant a place, or AP for that matter. Faugheen has beaten nothing yet either. Bizarre post. And whats wrong with heavy ground or Leopardstown. Best horses are trained in Ireland now and we are talking jumps racing, which is a winter sport and very very rare for any top races,either side of the pond, outside of Cheltenham festival to be run on ground better than soft.
By:
trigger3
When: 04 Mar 15 21:13
Bizarre post why, because I've disagreed with your assessment of the fly as the best hurdler in last 30 years? I seem to have hit a nerve here, and don't try and twist the argument by saying that I said the fly wasn't in my top 6 for the last 2 years, you know fine rightly I never claimed that. You could argue he has been the most consistent and certainly the most durable of them all but not necessarily the best in championship conditions. He found 3 of them better than him last March. The point is that Mullins kept UDS, & AP away from being campaigned against the fly and up until now he has done the same with Faugheen. That done the horse no favours if he was trying to prove the horses legacy although it did help him rack up the grade 1s.
By:
inchcailoch
When: 04 Mar 15 21:53
The fly has won 2 champion hurdles on a course he doesnt like, hes naxt to invincible in Ireland he is definitly one of the best we've seen that should be the end of that conversation. Cheltenham is Brilliant but its startng to ruin the rest of the season which is a major concern, and i think its having a more negative effect on the British NH season than the Irish.
By:
jasey
When: 04 Mar 15 21:59
This game is all about opinions and mine is the Fly would smash any horse that wants to race against him at Leopardstown.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 04 Mar 15 22:20
Fair enough Trigger,just it read as though you didnt have him in your top 6. Like I said, WPM didnt campaign UDS at the highest level, I would say thats his own business and nothing to do with the Fly's legacy. There were any number of races he could have run in but didnt. AP went the UK route as Faugheen has this year and they are due to clash next week anyway. The only part that hits a nerve is where you suggest the fly has racked up 22 grade 1s by getting soft touches. Solwith, Thousand Stars, Go native, Pedlers Cross, Rock On Ruby, Binocular, Our Conor, Jezki were all top class and he could make them look ordinary. Like i said, the best races run for the last 2 seasons (or 5 seasons if you like) were the races he ran in, and not Christmas or Aintree hurdles. I could argue all day that he's the best of the last 30 years but I suspect many wouldn't have that even if he won next week.
By:
Killie Sunt
When: 05 Mar 15 01:05
Hurricane Fly has never won a Hurdle race in a time quicker than the standard. In it's four Champion Hurdles, 2 were run in quicker times than the standard and he was destroyed in both.
You can't say he is not a great horse, but I've often wondered why they don't try to run the sting out of him more often
I also like to see the best hoses compete against each other in the Grade 1s and in many of his wins that has not been the case
By:
cufcno1
When: 05 Mar 15 05:24
Are you ok brassneck,get in touch with your local crisis team,they might section you !
By:
miltons sophie
When: 05 Mar 15 08:54
trigger3 - i note your low number of replies with interest. Irrespective of whether i agree or not with your perspective (i actually believe you make a very vaild point re the irony of WPM choices designed to enhance HF legacy may actually harm it) it is very refreshing to read somebody that puts their case across so compellingly and with clarity. it is a shame that people have not really listened properly to the main thrust of your point, have jumped down your throat and put words in your mouth. I wonder if like me this is the reason for your low number of replies.

had HF run against AP or UDS last year or F this year he may have beat them and if he had then there could be little or maybe no doubt about his legacy and certainly in my eyes his reputation greatly enhanced. The fact that he was not given the opportunity to do so by the trainer for whatever reason has cast a doubt in some peoples minds and the whole point about a legacy (or reputation) is that it is determined by the masses and not by the few (i.e. greatest fans or biggest critics)
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 14:29
I went to the bank this and asked for a 50 grand loan to back ANNIE POWER.
Bank manager asked how could I prove that I would be able pay back the load.
So I showed him Annies form and stats.
he quickly wrote out a check for 100 grand.
I told him I only needed 50 grand
he said have 50 grand on for him also.
Clever bank manager.LaughLaughLaugh
By:
jasey
When: 05 Mar 15 14:55
Bonkers
By:
Steamship
When: 05 Mar 15 15:14
It's through Mullins having nearly all the big guns that we have this scenario, that said at least he is letting them meet at Cheltenham. It would be nice to see English horses take HF on at Leopardstown. Whilst HF has been a very good horse I cannot have him as the best in 30 2mile hurdler years.

Peddlers Cross ran him close and Rock On Ruby beat him and while I'm fond of both these horses they are not brilliant.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 05 Mar 15 16:56
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ


How many is it now? 20 odd grade 1 wins, 2 champion hurdles but not the best we've seenConfused Even the effort needed to keep going as long as he has is not easy!

I am so sick of reading such drivel, each to their own your entitled to your opinion but basing your analysis of him not being the best to the horses he has beaten along the way is nothing more than an excuse to back up your own feeling on the horse. Maybe he give you a bad taste in the mouth cos you backed one against him one day i don't know but Hurricane Fly certainly does not deserve these comments one bit!!!
By:
timtin
When: 05 Mar 15 17:29
Maybe you love the horse too much to not try to understand what others are implying so you take offence for nothing. Of course he's in the record books and is pretty much among the best hurdlers of the last couple of years but ability wise he isn't among the top all time 10 hurdlers, he's more quantity over quality and that quantity would've been much lower if he had taken on the young talents(see Annie, UDS, Faugheen).

Also there have been enough hurdlers with a longer longevity at the top level than Fly with 3 CH wins on their record(5 in total) so all he can do this year is to equal them quantity wise. You don't gain respect when avoiding rivals which is what Mullins doesn't seem to understand when he leaves home horses so that the mighty Fly can have his way, sometimes it doesn't work though eg. last years CH. I'm sure he won't ever make this concession for Faugheen in the future as he doesn't care for the horse at all, he admitted recently in an interview that he tried to get him beat by taking him to that 3 miles group 3 race on heavy ground which he'd never do to The Fly, ever.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 05 Mar 15 17:33
My love for the horse Laugh I fooken hate the animal, cost me a fortune down the years betting against it and laying it on here!!!

But at the same time

A horse can only beat what is put in front of him!! Winning a race at all takes it out of you, just ask Mo Farah!
By:
timtin
When: 05 Mar 15 18:38
No one was talking about his consistency at the top level, but his ability heights which didn't got him in top 20-30 hurdle performances of all time; nevertheless he's surely in the mix no doubt especially given his dominance in the last years.

Btw I hope he won't make you lose money again this year as I see him in the first 3 and if you're hoping for Jezki to return to last year form and place, or other place combinations with TNO its again going to cost you money. More to the point don't count on Jezki or TNO to get placed as they don't stand for place value at all, count for Fly to get placed as he's in the best form of his life(similar to his 2011 CH) and will be the main challenger to Faugheen and at the prices he'll give a better run for your money than TNO or Jezki.
By:
alleged22
When: 05 Mar 15 18:46
Before you place a bet on the champion hurdle race think about this.

Anti post bets.

brassneck


   05 Mar 15 18:36 
Joined:   13 Feb 03      | Topic/replies: 4,750  | Blogger: brassneck's blog   

I had a bet on the champion hurdle,the horse I backed was withdrawn,but the bet went into cyber space after the field was cut to 8 runners,there is no record on my account of a lost bet.i also thought that betfair were going non runner no bet,
anybody know what were the anti post terms on the champion hurdle.




oh dear Blush
By:
Steamship
When: 05 Mar 15 20:05
Seathestars how and why do you think Hurricane Fly is better than Istabraq?

I used Rock On Ruby as he beat HF in the CHdl and that did not leave a bad taste in my mouth as I backed him.

I think most agree that it is not the horses fault but it would have been nice to see him tested at different courses. Only six times where he has run in a field of ten or more, most wins are small fields and same horses.
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 20:53
I am now after reading that betfair do not apply NRNB correctly.the horse must reach the overnight decs for you to get your money back.so back antipost on betfair at your pearl.
now before I start a scare I read it on another thread (not in betfair antipost rules)
but I advise you all to read the antipost rules.
its not good to be confused and at the moment I am confused,so check it out lads.
By:
geoff m
When: 05 Mar 15 20:57
"its not good to be confused and at the moment I am confused" are you sure its just @ the moment BrassneckLaugh
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 21:07
its not me that broke this news its a guy called mange,and it is wrong what betfair are doing if he is correct.
he says on the anti post thread on the horse racing forum that if you do not reach the final entries on an anti post bet you lose.
I have no reason not to believe mange(in fact I credit him for notifying me)
So it is certain to effect anti post bets on betfair,and needs to be cleared up other wise there are going to be a lot of arguments.
By:
sickoflayinwinners
When: 05 Mar 15 22:03
the op says it may be worth being against the front 3 in the market well its tough to see beating the three of em but  hurricane fly available at 10s ew   (5/2 for the place part of the bet ) must be value ew in  a race where we have the dead at (may even cut up futher) , the 8 includes bertimont who seems to have  very very little chance of framing so 5/2 hf to  frame in reality looks only 7 poss runners must be the play.if u cannot give hf any poss chance of winning you canofload the win part paying a very small fine and keep the place. looks as fair a bet as  the wwk will offe u.
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 22:28
we all have to remember that Willie Mullins is no dozer.now he is not running hurricane fly to make up the numbers,he truly believes that the fly can win it.And he wants him to win it,and he wants Ruby to ride it.That said ,the reason the stable give last year for Annie Powers withdrawal was that it was not their policy to allow their top horses to compete against each other.Which leads to the question why he is also running Faugheen in the race.
Now for the life of me can not see why faugheen is in the race when its his dream for hurricane to win it.
and we know rich ricci will do what ever willie says.so the question is why have a dream and then plan to dismantle the very same dream that you wish to come true.
By:
timtin
When: 05 Mar 15 22:43
you just need to put things into perspective, Mullins made a fool out of RR last year making lots of mistakes with placing his horses, so after P`town last year when they sat down to decide whether Faugheen or Vautour remains over hurdles, RR told him he could keep the Irish CH for Fly and send Faugheen in England, so that pact was respected and now for the CH there's no pact left. Also Faugheen was favourite in the CH since the beginning of the season so unfortunately Mullins can't dodge this bullet as it would look too bloody obvious and all he's left with is hope and hope that a miracle happens which can happen as Fly is in great form at the moment.
By:
trigger3
When: 05 Mar 15 23:01
At 10/1 now I agree the fly is the value bet in the race each way. Crazy price given his history and the season he has had.
By:
firstimevisor
When: 05 Mar 15 23:02
Steamship, there are 4 open grade 1 races run over 2 miles in Ireland each year. Likewise in UK as far as I know. These are the 4 races the fly runs in every year plus the champion hurdle. They are both grade 1 tracks-one left handed and one right handed.There is absolutely no need for him to run anywhere else as no other races would fit his training program. Its the same with Jezki.
As for the small fields, well, even though there are thousands of hurdlers in training, theres a gap in ability between the best 3(HF, Jetzki, Faugheen) and the next (Artic Fire) and an even bigger gap to the rest. In the UK the gap between TNO and everything else is huge. So who needs big fields ?. Look back at last years CH... ten ran (i think), only five counted and one of those fell. The pacemaker CCB finished fifth with the others barely home before dark. This is why you are getting small fields...only 8 declared for Tuesday and only 5 count.In the top UK races other than Cheltenham its the same when any of the big four turn up.
Big fields are fine when there is no obvious pecking order ( there were always big fields for Istabraqs CHs cos there was little else of any quality around) but the last thing I want to see is inferior horses getting in the way and messing up the race
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 23:04
And willie talks down Faugheen,he says he still has to do it all,while when talking about the fly,hes like a salesman talking how good he is.its not normal for Willie to be reserved when dishing out complements about his horses but with Faugheen he does not seem to be excited about the prospects of him winning .(imvho)
And he always has something good to say about Arctic Fire,he would nearly remind the interviewer that AF is in the race case anyone forgets.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 05 Mar 15 23:05
This year i backed HF at 20s in early Jan when there was speculation he could be retired after the Irish equivalent with the record safely in the bag!

I see it like this, and did so when i backed him, (each way of course)

Mullins still believes HF can win the Churdle, but knows that probably wont happen given his age. It is quite possible the plan at the start of the season was to go for the record and then retire him given how big his odds were. World hurdle was mooted early doors but i took that with a very large pinch of salt! And then when Mullins saw just how good a form he was in this season he has changed his mind and letting him take his chance. This decision i feel was made around New years time (when i backed him) and the decision was then made to A: go for the record and B: to not give Faugheen another prep run perhaps knowing that he is the new kid on the block but imagine the headlines if HF were to do it! It is also for this reason i think there be a lot of shocked forumites on here if RW picks fly! I think its a close run thing on who he chooses, i really do!
By:
trigger3
When: 05 Mar 15 23:08
Ruby won't pick fly unless it it starts raining cats and dogs over the weekend.
By:
brassneck
When: 05 Mar 15 23:12
if I am allowed an opinion without getting insulted I truly believe that Annie Power would pulverize this champion hurdle field and would have had she not got the setback in her training.
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