Cheltenham Festival
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Or even just one that your dead against? Mine without doubt is silva conti in the gold cup! I don't really like laying that much but if this thing is less than 3/1 on here then I would be more than happy to lay him at that price! And even lay him to place for good measure! Think there is plenty there to beat him with!
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Agree with conti.
Faugheen at 5/4 is ridiculous. |
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3/1 the new one
the red keeps piling up |
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Dodging Bullets is the biggest lay, can't have him round here
as Sire de Grugy doesn't look too shabby at the moment & Sprinter Sacre was given a tender time by Barry on his return |
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i'll be betting dodging bullets, less question marks against him than the others imo !!
all about opinions |
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Well, without layers, there'd be nothing to back.
At the prices, day one looks like it has potential for being a massive day for the layers - I think all four favs in the big races are too short, Douvan in particular could get the layers off to a cracking start. I'd also be against Silvi at less than 3/1. |
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The Triumph is looking like the best field in years. Peace & Co. lay lay lay at the prices.
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Yeah I'm thinking the same, there is definitely some scope for laying a few of the shorties this year and that's coming from a backer! Also don't like the new ones chances that much either after his hard luck story last year! And don't fancy dodging bullets or balders success much either! I would have champagne fever in a match in a few weeks to beat bullets!
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Not lays as such but ones I really cannot have are :
The New One - Champion Hurdle Parlour Games - Neptune Outlander - Neptune Don Poli - RSA Sprinter Sacre - Champ Chase Don Cossack - Ryanair Balder Succes - Ryanair |
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Can't be having L'Ami Serge either
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.......one I really cannot have is :
Zarkander - stayers hurdle |
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Zarkander could be the back to lay this year! As can see him running full of beans coming to the last but just not getting past least 1 or 2 of the hardened stayers!
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Douvan - Supreme Novices.
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Zarkandar (Stayers) Beaten too far last year
Silviniaco Conti (Gold Cup) Tried twice already and can't believe he can win a GC at the third time of asking Don Cossack (Ryanair) Just can't have it that there isn't at least one who will beat him Parlour Game (Neptune) I will take on fancied Ferguson horses at Cheltenham because it's made me lots of money Wouldn't risk laying too many WPM shorties - could get poor very quickly because the man's very good and he's in danger of taking things to a whole new level - but good luck to those laying UDS, Annie, Faugheen and particularly Douvan. I see the attraction of trying to get it beat in the opener - but the whole of Carlow is queuing up to take whatever you want to put up! |
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Parlour Game (Neptune) I will take on fancied Ferguson horses at Cheltenham because it's made me lots of money
delsie777 just remind me what fancied runners he has actually had...tell you the truth i can't remember many, can you remind me??? |
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I can't remember them all, Harry - I nust admit I tend to lay his horses blind due to his festival record. I guess the two big ones were Cotton Mill who tried to run out behind Simonsig in 2012 and that New Years Eve who Barry rode in the bumper - he was gambled down to fav if I remember rightly. Sorry if I touched a nerve - I do respect him as a trainer but I don't rate the type of horse he has as Prestbury horses
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no you didn't touch a nerve - i just couldn't remember him having many fancied runners in which to make money out of and needed reminding
can't say i am a follower of him, although he has some nice types this year in which to go to war with |
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"Wouldn't risk laying too many WPM shorties - could get poor very quickly because the man's very good and he's in danger of taking things to a whole new level - but good luck to those laying UDS, Annie, Faugheen and particularly Douvan. I see the attraction of trying to get it beat in the opener - but the whole of Carlow is queuing up to take whatever you want to put up!"
Put the Koolaid down for goodness sake. WPM is doing nothing different then what trainers have done for decades. He has the best horses money can buy because the guy is a brilliant businessman and this is how is able to get all these wealthy owners. The most successful trainers all have that same attribute i.e. the ability to sell themselves. As far a being a trainer i'd probably have him in the Top 5 but definitely not in the Top 3. He better start winning Championship races cause if you take HF out of the equate his tally is dismal. |
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Isn't that the point? He has the best horses money can buy - exactly - that's what makes me wary of laying them. He's been ok for a while, but it's only the last couple of years that he's been getting this type of ammo - Faugheen, Vatour, UDS etc. Look what Nicholls did when he was able to demand the best - Kauto, Masterminded, Denman... the balance of power moves with the big owners and Mullins has them now. Still, good luck to you if you have the big ones to lay them all. Me? I'll let them run and leave the laying to the big boys.
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A few winners tipped in this thread ! I'm a backer of The New One, Sire De Grugy, Zarkandar & Silviniaco Conti.
Lays for me would be - Jezki, Sprinter Sacre & Cue Card. |
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"Isn't that the point? He has the best horses money can buy - exactly - that's what makes me wary of laying them."
Damn you and your logic. Thanks for ruining a good rant.  I'm laying them but planing to trade out before off. |
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Peace and co in the triumph would be the favourite to take on at cheltenham I just can't have him on view and price
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From a trading perspective I think Peace and Co is the obvious one, as I find it nigh-on impossible to believe that he won't be available at at least 1 pt bigger through offers, or even through a drift, at some point between now and the race. I'd be a back-to-layer on him as I wouldn't want to take him on too heavily but do think the 2-1 is wrong.
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Sorry... should read lay-to-backer...
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SoYouThink -- Tipping 6/1 lays is the same as tipping 1/6 winners. If you were laying Un de Sceaux you'd have more credibility.
Same goes for TheCollector with Parlour Games and Balder. Sorry, but is anyone here actually going to lay anything? |
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my lays:
Supreme: Douvan JLT: Vautour Triumph: Peace and Co World: Zarkandar |
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funny pete
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well the one i'm keen to lay is sprinter sacre
horse looks gone to me and i didn't have him running a decent figure at ascot either...no matter how you cut it, he is regressive and the race looks very competitive as well, so i will be taking him on and probably in the place market as well, as can see him folding when the taps are turned on...i'm just hoping he is over bet on the day tbh |
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C'mon Harry, you're not a mug, you know how this game works: tell us a price. What price would you
be prepared to lay SS to place? Evens? 10/11? 11/10? |
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L'ami serge looks the one to lay for me, along with Zarkandar. Interestingly, PFN said tonight on twitter that there's nothing to choose between Z and SDR..
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L'ami serge looks the one to lay for me, along with Zarkandar. Interestingly, PFN said tonight on twitter that there's nothing to choose between Z and SDR..
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pete i'd be happy to accommodate 1.8 on the day but will be hoping to lay him in the run as well at 1.5 ish and some shorter as he is a snaffle horse...but can also still see him backed into favorite with the public money, so we maybe able to get him shorter hopefully...we will see
what price do you think he will be come the day pete a lot of the in running will depend on mr mole jumping off and behaviour pre race, as do want him running for me, if he is with the field i will have a decent wager |
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Well, SS looks like he's going to be there. They're talking a good story, anyway. I had a small bet when
bookies first started going NRNB because I thought they'd only run him if he was back to his best. That theory's kinda gone out of the window - and the exchange price is the same as the NRNB price, so everyone thinks he's going. I'd say SP will be 5/2 - 11/4. Place price on here? Maybe 4/5, like you said. It's a brave place lay, imo. Even 20lb short of his best, he should place. |
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I think 3-1 SS is a very fair price indeed and wouldn't be going anywhere near the pink button. He may never be what he was but he had stacks in hand of all of these and I expect him to improve a lot fro the Ascot run. Very much take Pete's comments on board about putting up 6-1 lays (it's hardly tough), so to bring the combined odds down, I'd be happy to take on Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Mr Mole. I think SS and SDG are a good bit better and that one or both of them will run near enough their best to get the job done.
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Mullins always 'gives the bookies one' of his shortees. Him being unusually bullish about Douvan reminds me of pont alexandre 2013.
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well to be honest pete the way my season has been it probably isn't a good play but lots of my playing is in the place market and am keen to get him, it has nothing to do with ability he used to have but we have seen him twice in 2 years and i didn't buy his last race and thought he folded tamely admittedly on ground not ideal for him
however i fancy champagne and sire to place so am very much against him to get run out of it, at the end of the day he will be ridden to challenge and go and win the race, whereas some will be ridden to place and if he hits the wall barry won't flog him...anyway there is no easy money as you know but if my ratings are right i don't have him much above the horses around him (adjusted to what i think he could be now) in the betting and he looks fragile imo if the ground were to be on the fast side like last year i may reconsider, after all that would massively favour him but as we stand i will be taking him on...i know it seems strange but mr mole matters a lot to me jumping off as i quite like him to get in the money and i want him running for me, so it will be a late bet for me |
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Fair enough Harry. You may as well keep things in your favour and wait till the day. I've a bit of dread that
SS isn't going to have a happy ending. I hope I'm wrong. If I was going to nominate a lay for the Festival, I would probably say TNO, but that's a 1/3 shot, so isn't much of a tip. I just can't be convinced by his runs. Jezki, Faugheen and HF? One of them will beat him for sure. |
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Douvan and Faugheen are the two I'm out to get. Either or both might win but they've both got enough questions to answer for the prices they are
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So your idea of the biggest lay of the year is for an unbeaten horse nicknamed `The Machine` who's form in behind is confirmed left and right? A winner of 3 grade 1's in imperious fashion and he still has questions to answer? Good luck with that.
My biggest lays of the festival are P&C and Douvan who are too short for what they've shown so far. The former's price is based on an unreliable performance which most are taking at face value, he then took part in a farce of a race where we learned nothing, while the latter beat nothing of note, has form only on heavy/soft ground and is being hyped by the trainer and jockey who have proven time and time again they have no idea who their best horses are until they put them in a proper race. |
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A horse that is a short priced fav will always have questions to answer until he runs against horses that can actually have a chance of winning the race he's short priced fav for.
So yes,Faugheen has questions to answer.....no doubt. |